Fracturing and tectonic stress drive ultrarapid magma flow into dikes

Many examples of exposed giant dike swarms can be found where lateral magma flow has exceeded hundreds of kilometers. We show that massive magma flow into dikes can be established with only modest overpressure in a magma body if a large enough pathway opens at its boundary and gradual buildup of high tensile stress has occurred along the dike pathway prior to the onset of diking. This explains rapid initial magma flow rates, modeled up to about 7400 cubic meters per second into a dike ~15-kilometers long, which propagated under the town of Grindavík, Southwest Iceland, in November 2023. Such high flow rates provide insight into the formation of major dikes and imply a serious hazard potential for high-flow rate intrusions that propagate to the surface and transition into eruptions.

The magmatic system under Hunga volcano before and after the 15 January 2022 eruption

One of the largest explosive eruptions instrumentally recorded occurred at Hunga volcano on 15 January 2022. The magma plumbing system under this volcano is unexplored because of inherent difficulties caused by its submarine setting. We use marine gravity data derived from satellite altimetry combined with multibeam bathymetry to model the architecture and dynamics of the magmatic system before and after the January 2022 eruption. We provide geophysical evidence for substantial high-melt content magma accumulation in three reservoirs at shallow depths (2 to 10 kilometers) under the volcano. We estimate that less than ~30% of the existing magma was evacuated by the main eruptive phases, enough to trigger caldera collapse. The eruption and caldera collapse reorganized magma storage, resulting in an increased connectivity between the two spatially distinct reservoirs. Modeling global satellite altimetry-derived gravity data at undersea volcanoes offer a promising reconnaissance tool to probe the subsurface for eruptible magma.

The magmatic web beneath Hawai'i

The deep magmatic architecture of the Hawaiian volcanic system is central to understanding the transport of magma from the upper mantle to the individual volcanoes. We leverage advances in earthquake monitoring with deep learning algorithms to image the structures underlying a major mantle earthquake swarm of nearly 200,000 events that rapidly accelerated after the 2018 Kīlauea caldera collapse. At depths of 36 to 43 kilometers, we resolve a 15-kilometers-long collection of near-horizontal sheeted structures that we identify as a sill complex. These sills connect to the lower depths of Kīlauea's plumbing by a 25-kilometers-long belt of seismicity. Additionally, a column of seismicity links the sill complex to a shallow décollement near Mauna Loa. These findings implicate the mantle sill complex as a nexus for magma transport beneath Hawai'i and furthermore indicate widespread magmatic connectivity in the volcanic system.

Coordinating science during an eruption: lessons from the 2020-2021 Kīlauea volcanic eruption

Data collected during well-observed eruptions can lead to dramatic increases in our understanding of volcanic processes. However, the necessary prioritization of public safety and hazard mitigation during a crisis means that scientific opportunities may be sacrificed. Thus, maximizing the scientific gains from eruptions requires improved planning and coordinating science activities among governmental organizations and academia before and during volcanic eruptions. One tool to facilitate this coordination is a Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC). In the USA, the Community Network for Volcanic Eruption Response (CONVERSE) has been developing and testing this concept during workshops and scenario-based activities. The December 2020 eruption of Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii, provided an opportunity to test and refine this model in real-time and in a real-world setting. We present here the working model of a SAC developed during this eruption. Successes of the Kīlauea SAC (K-SAC) included broadening the pool of scientists involved in eruption response and developing and codifying procedures that may form the basis of operation for future SACs. Challenges encountered by the K-SAC included a process of review and facilitation of research proposals that was too slow to include outside participation in the early parts of the eruption and a decision process that fell on a small number of individuals at the responding volcano observatory. Possible ways to address these challenges include (1) supporting community-building activities between eruptions that make connections among scientists within and outside formal observatories, (2) identifying key science questions and pre-planning science activities, which would facilitate more rapid implementation across a broader scientific group, and (3) continued dialog among observatory scientists, emergency responders, and non-observatory scientists about the role of SACs. The SAC model holds promise to become an integral part of future efforts, leading in the short and longer term to more effective hazard response and greater scientific discovery and understanding.

Evolving magma temperature and volatile contents over the 2008-2018 summit eruption of Kīlauea Volcano

Magma rheology and volatile contents exert primary and highly nonlinear controls on volcanic activity. Subtle changes in these magma properties can modulate eruption style and hazards, making in situ inference of their temporal evolution vital for volcano monitoring. Here, we study thousands of impulsive magma oscillations within the shallow conduit and lava lake of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i, USA, over the 2008-2018 summit eruptive sequence, encoded by "very-long-period" seismic events and ground deformation. Inversion of these data with a petrologically informed model of magma dynamics reveals significant variation in temperature and highly disequilibrium volatile contents over days to years, within a transport network that evolved over the eruption. Our results suggest a framework for inferring subsurface magma dynamics associated with prolonged eruptions in near real time that synthesizes petrologic and geophysical volcano monitoring approaches.

A look ahead to the next decade at US volcano observatories

Volcano monitoring, eruption response, and hazard assessment at volcanoes in the United States of America (US) fall under the mandate of five regional volcano observatories covering 161 active volcanoes. Working in a wide range of volcanic and geographic settings, US observatories must learn from and apply new knowledge and techniques to a great variety of scientific and hazard communication problems in volcanology. Over the past decade, experience during volcanic crises, such as the landmark 2018 eruption of Kīlauea, Hawai'i, has combined with investments and advances in research and technology, and the changing needs of partner agencies and the public, to transform the operations, science, and communication programs of US volcano observatories. Scientific and operational lessons from the past decade now guide new research and growing inter-observatory and external communication networks to meet new challenges and improve detection, forecasting, and response to volcanic eruptions in the US and around the world.

Uncertainty quantification and estimation in differential dynamic microscopy

Differential dynamic microscopy (DDM) is a form of video image analysis that combines the sensitivity of scattering and the direct visualization benefits of microscopy. DDM is broadly useful in determining dynamical properties including the intermediate scattering function for many spatiotemporally correlated systems. Despite its straightforward analysis, DDM has not been fully adopted as a routine characterization tool, largely due to computational cost and lack of algorithmic robustness. We present statistical analysis that quantifies the noise, reduces the computational order, and enhances the robustness of DDM analysis. We propagate the image noise through the Fourier analysis, which allows us to comprehensively study the bias in different estimators of model parameters, and we derive a different way to detect whether the bias is negligible. Furthermore, through use of Gaussian process regression (GPR), we find that predictive samples of the image structure function require only around 0.5%-5% of the Fourier transforms of the observed quantities. This vastly reduces computational cost, while preserving information of the quantities of interest, such as quantiles of the image scattering function, for subsequent analysis. The approach, which we call DDM with uncertainty quantification (DDM-UQ), is validated using both simulations and experiments with respect to accuracy and computational efficiency, as compared with conventional DDM and multiple particle tracking. Overall, we propose that DDM-UQ lays the foundation for important new applications of DDM, as well as to high-throughput characterization.

Repeating caldera collapse events constrain fault friction at the kilometer scale

Fault friction is central to understanding earthquakes, yet laboratory rock mechanics experiments are restricted to, at most, meter scale. Questions thus remain as to the applicability of measured frictional properties to faulting in situ. In particular, the slip-weakening distance [Formula: see text] strongly influences precursory slip during earthquake nucleation, but scales with fault roughness and is challenging to extrapolate to nature. The 2018 eruption of K̄ılauea volcano, Hawaii, caused 62 repeatable collapse events in which the summit caldera dropped several meters, accompanied by [Formula: see text] 4.7 to 5.4 very long period (VLP) earthquakes. Collapses were exceptionally well recorded by global positioning system (GPS) and tilt instruments and represent unique natural kilometer-scale friction experiments. We model a piston collapsing into a magma reservoir. Pressure at the piston base and shear stress on its margin, governed by rate and state friction, balance its weight. Downward motion of the piston compresses the underlying magma, driving flow to the eruption. Monte Carlo estimation of unknowns validates laboratory friction parameters at the kilometer scale, including the magnitude of steady-state velocity weakening. The absence of accelerating precollapse deformation constrains [Formula: see text] to be [Formula: see text] mm, potentially much less. These results support the use of laboratory friction laws and parameters for modeling earthquakes. We identify initial conditions and material and magma-system parameters that lead to episodic caldera collapse, revealing that small differences in eruptive vent elevation can lead to major differences in eruption volume and duration. Most historical basaltic caldera collapses were, at least partly, episodic, implying that the conditions for stick-slip derived here are commonly met in nature.

Dynamics of large effusive eruptions driven by caldera collapse

The largest effusive basaltic eruptions are associated with caldera collapse and are manifest through quasi-periodic ground displacements and moderate-size earthquakes^1-3, but the mechanism that governs their dynamics remains unclear. Here we provide a physical model that explains these processes, which accounts for both the quasi-periodic stick-slip collapse of the caldera roof and the long-term eruptive behaviour of the volcano. We show that it is the caldera collapse itself that sustains large effusive eruptions, and that triggering caldera collapse requires topography-generated pressures. The model is consistent with data from the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and allows us to estimate the properties of the plumbing system of the volcano. The results reveal that two reservoirs were active during the eruption, and place constraints on their connectivity. According to the model, the Kīlauea eruption stopped after slightly more than 60 per cent of its potential caldera collapse events, possibly owing to the presence of the second reservoir. Finally, we show that this physical framework is generally applicable to the largest instrumented caldera collapse eruptions of the past fifty years.

Caldera resurgence during the 2018 eruption of Sierra Negra volcano, Galápagos Islands

Recent large basaltic eruptions began after only minor surface uplift and seismicity, and resulted in caldera subsidence. In contrast, some eruptions at Galápagos Island volcanoes are preceded by prolonged, large amplitude uplift and elevated seismicity. These systems also display long-term intra-caldera uplift, or resurgence. However, a scarcity of observations has obscured the mechanisms underpinning such behaviour. Here we combine a unique multiparametric dataset to show how the 2018 eruption of Sierra Negra contributed to caldera resurgence. Magma supply to a shallow reservoir drove 6.5 m of pre-eruptive uplift and seismicity over thirteen years, including an Mw5.4 earthquake that triggered the eruption. Although co-eruptive magma withdrawal resulted in 8.5 m of subsidence, net uplift of the inner-caldera on a trapdoor fault resulted in 1.5 m of permanent resurgence. These observations reveal the importance of intra-caldera faulting in affecting resurgence, and the mechanisms of eruption in the absence of well-developed rift systems.

The cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting

The 2018 summit and flank eruption of Kīlauea Volcano was one of the largest volcanic events in Hawai'i in 200 years. Data suggest that a backup in the magma plumbing system at the long-lived Pu'u 'Ō'ō eruption site caused widespread pressurization in the volcano, driving magma into the lower flank. The eruption evolved, and its impact expanded, as a sequence of cascading events, allowing relatively minor changes at Pu'u 'Ō'ō to cause major destruction and historic changes across the volcano. Eruption forecasting is inherently challenging in cascading scenarios where magmatic systems may prime gradually and trigger on small events.

Unexpected large eruptions from buoyant magma bodies within viscoelastic crust

Large volume effusive eruptions with relatively minor observed precursory signals are at odds with widely used models to interpret volcano deformation. Here we propose a new modelling framework that resolves this discrepancy by accounting for magma buoyancy, viscoelastic crustal properties, and sustained magma channels. At low magma accumulation rates, the stability of deep magma bodies is governed by the magma-host rock density contrast and the magma body thickness. During eruptions, inelastic processes including magma mush erosion and thermal effects, can form a sustained channel that supports magma flow, driven by the pressure difference between the magma body and surface vents. At failure onset, it may be difficult to forecast the final eruption volume; pressure in a magma body may drop well below the lithostatic load, create under-pressure and initiate a caldera collapse, despite only modest precursors.

Calderas collapse as magma flows into rifts

Recent caldera collapses show the importance of distant volcanic rift zones