Number of HIV-1 founder variants is determined by the recency of the source partner infection

Higher HIV-1 evolutionary rate is associated with cytotoxic T lymphocyte escape mutations in infants

Escape from cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) responses toward HIV-1 Gag and Nef has been associated with reduced control of HIV-1 replication in adults. However, less is known about CTL-driven immune selection in infants as longitudinal studies of infants are limited. Here, 1,210 gag and 1,264 nef sequences longitudinally collected within 15 months after birth from 14 HIV-1 perinatally infected infants and their mothers were analyzed. The number of transmitted founder (T/F) viruses and associations between virus evolution, selection, CTL escape, and disease progression were determined. The analyses indicated that a paraphyletic-monophyletic relationship between the mother-infant sequences was common (80%), and that the HIV-1 infection was established by a single T/F virus in 10 of the 12 analyzed infants (83%). Furthermore, most HIV-1 CTL escape mutations among infants were transmitted from the mothers and did not revert during the first year of infection. Still, immune-driven selection was observed at approximately 3 months after HIV-1 infection in infants. Moreover, virus populations with CTL escape mutations in gag evolved faster than those without, independently of disease progression rate. These findings expand the current knowledge of HIV-1 transmission, evolution, and CTL escape in infant HIV-1 infection and are relevant for the development of immune-directed interventions in infants.IMPORTANCEDespite increased coverage in antiretroviral therapy for the prevention of perinatal transmission, paediatric HIV-1 infection remains a significant public health concern, especially in areas of high HIV-1 prevalence. Understanding HIV-1 transmission and the subsequent virus adaptation from the mother to the infant's host environment, as well as the viral factors that affect disease outcome, is important for the development of early immune-directed interventions for infants. This study advances our understanding of vertical HIV-1 transmission, and how infant immune selection pressure is shaping the intra-host evolutionary dynamics of HIV-1.

Inferring the multiplicity of founder variants initiating HIV-1 infection: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

HIV-1 infections initiated by multiple founder variants are characterised by a higher viral load and a worse clinical prognosis than those initiated with single founder variants, yet little is known about the routes of exposure through which transmission of multiple founder variants is most probable. Here we used individual patient data to calculate the probability of multiple founders stratified by route of HIV exposure and study methodology.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that estimated founder variant multiplicity in HIV-1 infection, searching MEDLINE, Embase, and Global Health databases for papers published between Jan 1, 1990, and Sept 14, 2020. Eligible studies must have reported original estimates of founder variant multiplicity in people with acute or early HIV-1 infections, have clearly detailed the methods used, and reported the route of exposure. Studies were excluded if they reported data concerning people living with HIV-1 who had known or suspected superinfection, who were documented as having received pre-exposure prophylaxis, or if the transmitting partner was known to be receiving antiretroviral treatment. Individual patient data were collated from all studies, with authors contacted if these data were not publicly available. We applied logistic meta-regression to these data to estimate the probability that an HIV infection is initiated by multiple founder variants. We calculated a pooled estimate using a random effects model, subsequently stratifying this estimate across exposure routes in a univariable analysis. We then extended our model to adjust for different study methods in a multivariable analysis, recalculating estimates across the exposure routes. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020202672.

FINDINGS

We included 70 publications in our analysis, comprising 1657 individual patients. Our pooled estimate of the probability that an infection is initiated by multiple founder variants was 0·25 (95% CI 0·21-0·29), with moderate heterogeneity (Q=132·3, p<0·0001, I²=64·2%). Our multivariable analysis uncovered differences in the probability of multiple variant infection by exposure route. Relative to a baseline of male-to-female transmission, the predicted probability for female-to-male multiple variant transmission was significantly lower at 0·13 (95% CI 0·08-0·20), and the probabilities were significantly higher for transmissions in people who inject drugs (0·37 [0·24-0·53]) and men who have sex with men (0·30 [0·33-0·40]). There was no significant difference in the probability of multiple variant transmission between male-to-female transmission (0·21 [0·14-0·31]), post-partum transmission (0·18 [0·03-0·57]), pre-partum transmission (0·17 [0·08-0·33]), and intra-partum transmission (0·27 [0·14-0·45]).

INTERPRETATION

We identified that transmissions in people who inject drugs and men who have sex with men are significantly more likely to result in an infection initiated by multiple founder variants, and female-to-male infections are significantly less probable. Quantifying how the routes of HIV infection affect the transmission of multiple variants allows us to better understand how the evolution and epidemiology of HIV-1 determine clinical outcomes.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council Precision Medicine Doctoral Training Programme and a European Research Council Starting Grant.

The apparent interferon resistance of transmitted HIV-1 is possibly a consequence of enhanced replicative fitness

HIV-1 transmission via sexual exposure is an inefficient process. When transmission does occur, newly infected individuals are colonized by the descendants of either a single virion or a very small number of establishing virions. These transmitted founder (TF) viruses are more interferon (IFN)-resistant than chronic control (CC) viruses present 6 months after transmission. To identify the specific molecular defences that make CC viruses more susceptible to the IFN-induced 'antiviral state', we established a single pair of fluorescent TF and CC viruses and used arrayed interferon-stimulated gene (ISG) expression screening to identify candidate antiviral effectors. However, we observed a relatively uniform ISG resistance of transmitted HIV-1, and this directed us to investigate possible underlying mechanisms. Simple simulations, where we varied a single parameter, illustrated that reduced growth rate could possibly underly apparent interferon sensitivity. To examine this possibility, we closely monitored in vitro propagation of a model TF/CC pair (closely matched in replicative fitness) over a targeted range of IFN concentrations. Fitting standard four-parameter logistic growth models, in which experimental variables were regressed against growth rate and carrying capacity, to our in vitro growth curves, further highlighted that small differences in replicative growth rates could recapitulate our in vitro observations. We reasoned that if growth rate underlies apparent interferon resistance, transmitted HIV-1 would be similarly resistant to any growth rate inhibitor. Accordingly, we show that two transmitted founder HIV-1 viruses are relatively resistant to antiretroviral drugs, while their matched chronic control viruses were more sensitive. We propose that, when present, the apparent IFN resistance of transmitted HIV-1 could possibly be explained by enhanced replicative fitness, as opposed to specific resistance to individual IFN-induced defences. However, further work is required to establish how generalisable this mechanism of relative IFN resistance might be.

Using phylogenetics to infer HIV-1 transmission direction between known transmission pairs

Identifying the transmission direction between individuals provides unparalleled power to understand infectious disease epidemiology. With epidemiological and clinical information typically unavailable to infer transmission direction, phylogenetic analysis of pathogen sequence data offers an alternative approach. While the success of this phylogenetic analysis varies, the reasons remain unknown. We analyze sequence data from over 100 transmission pairs for which both the transmission direction of HIV is known and detailed additional information is available. We find that easily quantifiable phylogenetic and sampling characteristics discriminate whether a phylogenetically inferred transmission direction is correct. Our analysis highlights that while phylogenetic approaches to infer transmission direction are unsuitable for individual-level analysis, such as forensic investigations, confidence in source attribution can be incorporated in population-level analyses.

Inferring the transmission direction between linked individuals living with HIV provides unparalleled power to understand the epidemiology that determines transmission. Phylogenetic ancestral-state reconstruction approaches infer the transmission direction by identifying the individual in whom the most recent common ancestor of the virus populations originated. While these methods vary in accuracy, it is unclear why. To evaluate the performance of phylogenetic ancestral-state reconstruction to determine the transmission direction of HIV-1 infection, we inferred the transmission direction for 112 transmission pairs where transmission direction and detailed additional information were available. We then fit a statistical model to evaluate the extent to which epidemiological, sampling, genetic, and phylogenetic factors influenced the outcome of the inference. Finally, we repeated the analysis under real-life conditions with only routinely available data. We found that whether ancestral-state reconstruction correctly infers the transmission direction depends principally on the phylogeny's topology. For example, under real-life conditions, the probability of identifying the correct transmission direction increases from 32%—when a monophyletic–monophyletic or paraphyletic–polyphyletic tree topology is observed and when the tip closest to the root does not agree with the state at the root—to 93% when a paraphyletic–monophyletic topology is observed and when the tip closest to the root agrees with the root state. Our results suggest that documenting larger differences in relative intrahost diversity increases our confidence in the transmission direction inference of linked pairs for population-level studies of HIV. These findings provide a practical starting point to determine our confidence in transmission direction inference from ancestral-state reconstruction.

Transmitted HIV-1 is more virulent in heterosexual individuals than men-who-have-sex-with-men

Transmission bottlenecks introduce selection pressures on HIV-1 that vary with the mode of transmission. Recent studies on small cohorts have suggested that stronger selection pressures lead to fitter transmitted/founder (T/F) strains. Manifestations of this selection bias at the population level have remained elusive. Here, we analysed early CD4 cell count measurements reported from ∼340,000 infected heterosexual individuals (HET) and men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), across geographies, ethnicities and calendar years. The reduction in CD4 counts early in infection is reflective of the virulence of T/F strains. MSM and HET use predominant modes of transmission, namely, anal and penile-vaginal, with among the largest differences in the selection pressures at transmission across modes. Further, in most geographies, the groups show little inter-mixing, allowing for the differential selection bias to be sustained and amplified. We found that the early reduction in CD4 counts was consistently greater in HET than MSM (P<0.05). To account for inherent variations in baseline CD4 counts, we constructed a metric to quantify the extent of progression to AIDS as the ratio of the reduction in measured CD4 counts from baseline and the reduction associated with AIDS. We found that this progression corresponding to the early CD4 measurements was ∼68% for MSM and ∼87% for HET on average (P<10⁻⁴; Cohen’s d, d_s = 0.36), reflecting the more severe disease caused by T/F strains in HET than MSM at the population level. Interestingly, the set-point viral load was not different between the groups (d_s<0.12), suggesting that MSM were more tolerant and not more resistant to their T/F strains than HET. This difference remained when we controlled for confounding factors using multivariable regression. We concluded that the different selection pressures at transmission have resulted in more virulent T/F strains in HET than MSM. These findings have implications for our understanding of HIV-1 pathogenesis, evolution, and epidemiology.

HIV-1 encounters a key bottleneck at the time of its transmission from one individual to another. This transmission bottleneck can differ between modes of transmission. The stronger this bottleneck is, the more fit the virus has to be to be successfully transmitted. Accordingly, the transmitted/founder (T/F) strains of HIV-1 may have different fitness in risk groups that use different modes of transmission. While studies on small cohorts do support this notion, observations of the manifestations of this differential selection bias at the population level have been lacking. Here, we examined reported early CD4 count measurements from ∼340,000 HET and MSM, across geographies, ethnicities, and calendar years. Early CD4 counts are a measure of the severity of the infection due to T/F strains. HET and MSM transmit predominantly via penile-vaginal and anal modes, respectively, and do not inter-mix significantly. Remarkably, we found that HET consistently had lower early CD4 counts than MSM. This difference could not be attributed to potential confounding factors, such as set-point viral load. The difference thus provided evidence that T/F strains had evolved to be more virulent in HET than MSM at the population level. Intervention strategies may benefit from accounting for this difference between risk groups.

Infection with multiple HIV-1 founder variants is associated with lower viral replicative capacity, faster CD4+ T cell decline and increased immune activation during acute infection

HIV-1 transmission is associated with a severe bottleneck in which a limited number of variants from a pool of genetically diverse quasispecies establishes infection. The IAVI protocol C cohort of discordant couples, female sex workers, other heterosexuals and men who have sex with men (MSM) present varying risks of HIV infection, diverse HIV-1 subtypes and represent a unique opportunity to characterize transmitted/founder viruses (TF) where disease outcome is known. To identify the TF, the HIV-1 repertoire of 38 MSM participants' samples was sequenced close to transmission (median 21 days post infection, IQR 18-41) and assessment of multivariant infection done. Patient derived gag genes were cloned into an NL4.3 provirus to generate chimeric viruses which were characterized for replicative capacity (RC). Finally, an evaluation of how the TF virus predicted disease progression and modified the immune response at both acute and chronic HIV-1 infection was done. There was higher prevalence of multivariant infection compared with previously described heterosexual cohorts. A link was identified between multivariant infection and replicative capacity conferred by gag, whereby TF gag tended to be of lower replicative capacity in multivariant infection (p = 0.02) suggesting an overall lowering of fitness requirements during infection with multiple variants. Notwithstanding, multivariant infection was associated with rapid CD4+ T cell decline and perturbances in the CD4+ T cell and B cell compartments compared to single variant infection, which were reversible upon control of viremia. Strategies aimed at identifying and mitigating multivariant infection could contribute toward improving HIV-1 prognosis and this may involve strategies that tighten the stringency of the transmission bottleneck such as treatment of STI. Furthermore, the sequences and chimeric viruses help with TF based experimental vaccine immunogen design and can be used in functional assays to probe effective immune responses against TF.

Does HIV infection increase male sexual behavior?

After 40 years of intense study on HIV/AIDS, scientists have identified, among other things, at risk populations, stages of disease progression and treatment strategies. What has received less attention is the possibility that infection might elicit an increase in sexual behavior in humans. In 2000, Starks and colleagues speculated that HIV infection could alter host behavior in a manner that facilitated the spread of the virus. Retrospective and self-report data from five studies now support this hypothesis. Individuals with acute—versus nonacute—stage infections report more sexual partners and more frequent risky sex. Additionally, male sexual behavior increases nonlinearly with HIV viral load, and data suggest a potential threshold viral level above which individuals are more likely to engage in risky sexual behavior. Taken together, these data suggest that HIV infection influences male sexual behavior in a manner beneficial to the virus. Here, we present these findings, highlight their limitations and discuss alternative perspectives. We argue for increased testing of this hypothesis and advocate for increased public health measures to mitigate the putative impact on male sexual behavior.

Lay Summary In 2000, Starks and colleagues speculated that HIV infection could alter host behavior in a manner that facilitated the spread of the virus. Retrospective and self-report data from five studies now support this hypothesis. We argue for increased testing of this hypothesis and advocate for increased public health measures to mitigate the putative impact on male sexual behavior.