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Arsenović P, Rozanov E, Usoskin I, Turney C, Sukhodolov T, McCracken K, Friedel M, Anet J, Simić S, Maliniemi V, Egorova T, Korte M, Rieder H, Cooper A, Peter T. Global impacts of an extreme solar particle event under different geomagnetic field strengths. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2321770121. [PMID: 38950370 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2321770121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2023] [Accepted: 05/10/2024] [Indexed: 07/03/2024] Open
Abstract
Solar particle events (SPEs) are short-lived bursts of high-energy particles from the solar atmosphere and are widely recognized as posing significant economic risks to modern society. Most SPEs are relatively weak and have minor impacts on the Earth's environment, but historic records contain much stronger SPEs which have the potential to alter atmospheric chemistry, impacting climate and biological life. The impacts of such strong SPEs would be far more severe when the Earth's protective geomagnetic field is weak, such as during past geomagnetic excursions or reversals. Here, we model the impacts of an extreme SPE under different geomagnetic field strengths, focusing on changes in atmospheric chemistry and surface radiation using the atmosphere-ocean-chemistry-climate model SOCOL3-MPIOM and the radiation transfer model LibRadtran. Under current geomagnetic conditions, an extreme SPE would increase NOx concentrations in the polar stratosphere and mesosphere, causing reductions in extratropical stratospheric ozone lasting for about a year. In contrast, with no geomagnetic field, there would be a substantial increase in NOx throughout the entire atmosphere, resulting in severe stratospheric ozone depletion for several years. The resulting ground-level ultraviolet (UV) radiation would remain elevated for up to 6 y, leading to increases in UV index up to 20 to 25% and solar-induced DNA damage rates by 40 to 50%. The potential evolutionary impacts of past extreme SPEs remain an important question, while the risks they pose to human health in modern conditions continue to be underestimated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pavle Arsenović
- Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, Department of Water, Atmosphere, and Environment, BOKU University, Vienna 1180, Austria
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zürich 8092, Switzerland
| | - Eugene Rozanov
- Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos und World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos 7260, Switzerland
- Ozone Layer and Upper Atmosphere Research Laboratory, Saint-Petersburg State University, Saint-Petersburg 198504, Russia
| | - Ilya Usoskin
- Space Physics and Astronomy Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu 90014, Finland
| | - Chris Turney
- Institute for Sustainable Futures, Division of Research, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, NSW 2007, Australia
| | - Timofei Sukhodolov
- Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos und World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos 7260, Switzerland
| | - Ken McCracken
- Institute for Sustainable Futures, Division of Research, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, NSW 2007, Australia
| | - Marina Friedel
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zürich 8092, Switzerland
| | - Julien Anet
- Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Zurich 8058, Switzerland
| | - Stana Simić
- Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, Department of Water, Atmosphere, and Environment, BOKU University, Vienna 1180, Austria
| | - Ville Maliniemi
- Water, Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu 90014, Finland
| | - Tatiana Egorova
- Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos und World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos 7260, Switzerland
| | - Monika Korte
- Geophysics Department, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam - Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam 14473, Germany
| | - Harald Rieder
- Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, Department of Water, Atmosphere, and Environment, BOKU University, Vienna 1180, Austria
| | - Alan Cooper
- Gulbali Institute, Charles Sturt University, Albury, NSW 2640, Australia
| | - Thomas Peter
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zürich 8092, Switzerland
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Cooper A, Turney CSM, Palmer J, Hogg A, McGlone M, Wilmshurst J, Lorrey AM, Heaton TJ, Russell JM, McCracken K, Anet JG, Rozanov E, Friedel M, Suter I, Peter T, Muscheler R, Adolphi F, Dosseto A, Faith JT, Fenwick P, Fogwill CJ, Hughen K, Lipson M, Liu J, Nowaczyk N, Rainsley E, Ramsey CB, Sebastianelli P, Souilmi Y, Stevenson J, Thomas Z, Tobler R, Zech R. Response to Comment on "A global environmental crisis 42,000 years ago". Science 2021; 374:eabh3655. [PMID: 34793228 DOI: 10.1126/science.abh3655] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Our paper about the impacts of the Laschamps Geomagnetic Excursion 42,000 years ago has provoked considerable scientific and public interest, particularly in the so-called Adams Event associated with the initial transition of the magnetic poles. Although we welcome the opportunity to discuss our new ideas, Hawks' assertions of misrepresentation are especially disappointing given his limited examination of the material.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alan Cooper
- South Australian Museum, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia, and BlueSky Genetics, P.O. Box 287, Adelaide, SA 5137, Australia
| | - Chris S M Turney
- Chronos 14Carbon-Cycle Facility and Earth and Sustainability Science Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Jonathan Palmer
- Chronos Carbon-Cycle Facility and Earth and Sustainability Science Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Alan Hogg
- Radiocarbon Dating Laboratory, University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand
| | - Matt McGlone
- Ecosystems and Conservation, Landcare Research, P.O. Box 69040, Lincoln, New Zealand
| | - Janet Wilmshurst
- Ecosystems and Conservation, Landcare Research, P.O. Box 69040, Lincoln, New Zealand.,School of Environment, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand
| | - Andrew M Lorrey
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd., Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Timothy J Heaton
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S3 7RH, UK
| | - James M Russell
- Department of Geological Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA
| | | | - Julien G Anet
- Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Centre for Aviation, Winterthur, Switzerland
| | - Eugene Rozanov
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climatic Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland.,Department of Physics of Earth, Faculty of Physics, St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russia
| | - Marina Friedel
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climatic Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Ivo Suter
- Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa), Dübendorf, Switzerland
| | - Thomas Peter
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climatic Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Raimund Muscheler
- Department of Geology, Quaternary Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Florian Adolphi
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - Anthony Dosseto
- Wollongong Isotope Geochronology Laboratory, School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia
| | - J Tyler Faith
- Natural History Museum of Utah and Department of Anthropology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84108, USA
| | - Pavla Fenwick
- Gondwana Tree-Ring Laboratory, P.O. Box 14, Little River, Canterbury 7546, New Zealand
| | - Christopher J Fogwill
- School of Geography, Geology and the Environment, University of Keele, Keele, Staffordshire, UK
| | - Konrad Hughen
- Department of Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
| | - Matthew Lipson
- Centre for Excellence in Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Jiabo Liu
- Department of Ocean Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
| | - Norbert Nowaczyk
- Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 4.3, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Eleanor Rainsley
- School of Geography, Geology and the Environment, University of Keele, Keele, Staffordshire, UK
| | - Christopher Bronk Ramsey
- Research Laboratory for Archaeology and the History of Art, School of Archaeology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TG, UK
| | - Paolo Sebastianelli
- Faculty of Mathematics, Astronomy and Physics (FAMAF), National University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina, and School of Chemistry, University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Yassine Souilmi
- Australian Centre for Ancient DNA, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia
| | - Janelle Stevenson
- Archaeology and Natural History, School of Culture History and Language, ANU College of Asia and the Pacific, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Zoe Thomas
- Chronos Carbon-Cycle Facility and Earth and Sustainability Science Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Raymond Tobler
- Australian Centre for Ancient DNA, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia
| | - Roland Zech
- Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Jena, Germany
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