A sea of possibilities for marine megafauna

Innovative monitoring scheme adapted to remote, scattered nesting aggregation reveals a major loggerhead turtle rookery in New Caledonia, South Pacific

The loggerhead turtle Caretta caretta is a large marine turtle with a cosmopolitan repartition in warm and temperate waters of the planet. The South Pacific subpopulation is classified as 'Critically Endangered' on the IUCN Red List, based on the estimated demographic decline. This precarious situation engages an urgent need to monitor nesting populations in order to highlight conservation priorities and to ensure their efficiency over time. New Caledonia encompasses a large number of micro and distant nesting sites, localized on coral islets widely distributed across its large lagoon. Adequately surveying nesting activities on those hard-to-reach beaches can prove to be challenging. As a result, important knowledge gaps prevail in those high-potential nesting habitats. For the first time, an innovative monitoring scheme was conducted to assess the intensity of nesting activities, considered as a proxy of the population size, on an exhaustive set of islets located in the 'Grand Lagon Sud' area. These data were analyzed using a set of statistical methods specially designed to produce phenology and nesting activity estimates using Bayesian methods. This analysis revealed that this rookery hosts a large nesting colony, with a mean annual estimate of 437 nests (95% Credible Interval = 328-582). These numbers exceed that of the previous estimated annual number of loggerhead turtle nests in New Caledonia, highlighting the exceptional nature of this area. Considering the fact that similar high-potential aggregations have been identified in other parts of New Caledonia, but failed to be comprehensively assessed to this day, we recommend carrying out this replicable monitoring scheme to other locations. It could allow a significant re-evaluation of the New Caledonian nesting population importance and, ultimately, of its prevailing responsibility for the protection of this patrimonial yet endangered species.

A novel expert-driven methodology to develop thermal response curves and project habitat thermal suitability for cetaceans under a changing climate

Over the last decades, global warming has contributed to changes in marine species composition, abundance and distribution, in response to changes in oceanographic conditions such as temperature, acidification, and deoxygenation. Experimentally derived thermal limits, which are known to be related to observed latitudinal ranges, have been used to assess variations in species distribution patterns. However, such experiments cannot be undertaken on free-swimming large marine predators with wide-range distribution, like cetaceans. An alternative approach is to elicit expert's knowledge to derive species' thermal suitability and assess their thermal responses, something that has never been tested in these taxa. We developed and applied a methodology based on expert-derived thermal suitability curves and projected future responses for several species under different climate scenarios. We tested this approach with ten cetacean species currently present in the biogeographic area of Macaronesia (North Atlantic) under Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, until 2050. Overall, increases in annual thermal suitability were found for Balaenoptera edeni, Globicephala macrorhynchus, Mesoplodon densirostris, Physeter macrocephalus, Stenella frontalis, Tursiops truncatus and Ziphius cavirostris. Conversely, our results indicated a decline in thermal suitability for B. physalus, Delphinus delphis, and Grampus griseus. Our study reveals potential responses in cetaceans' thermal suitability, and potentially in other highly mobile and large predators, and it tests this method's applicability, which is a novel application for this purpose and group of species. It aims to be a cost-efficient tool to support conservation managers and practitioners.