Cross-validation strategies in QSPR modelling of chemical reactions

In this article, we consider cross-validation of the quantitative structure-property relationship models for reactions and show that the conventional k-fold cross-validation (CV) procedure gives an 'optimistically' biased assessment of prediction performance. To address this issue, we suggest two strategies of model cross-validation, 'transformation-out' CV, and 'solvent-out' CV. Unlike the conventional k-fold cross-validation approach that does not consider the nature of objects, the proposed procedures provide an unbiased estimation of the predictive performance of the models for novel types of structural transformations in chemical reactions and reactions going under new conditions. Both the suggested strategies have been applied to predict the rate constants of bimolecular elimination and nucleophilic substitution reactions, and Diels-Alder cycloaddition. All suggested cross-validation methodologies and tutorial are implemented in the open-source software package CIMtools (https://github.com/cimm-kzn/CIMtools).

Comprehensive Analysis of Applicability Domains of QSPR Models for Chemical Reactions

Nowadays, the problem of the model's applicability domain (AD) definition is an active research topic in chemoinformatics. Although many various AD definitions for the models predicting properties of molecules (Quantitative Structure-Activity/Property Relationship (QSAR/QSPR) models) were described in the literature, no one for chemical reactions (Quantitative Reaction-Property Relationships (QRPR)) has been reported to date. The point is that a chemical reaction is a much more complex object than an individual molecule, and its yield, thermodynamic and kinetic characteristics depend not only on the structures of reactants and products but also on experimental conditions. The QRPR models' performance largely depends on the way that chemical transformation is encoded. In this study, various AD definition methods extensively used in QSAR/QSPR studies of individual molecules, as well as several novel approaches suggested in this work for reactions, were benchmarked on several reaction datasets. The ability to exclude wrong reaction types, increase coverage, improve the model performance and detect Y-outliers were tested. As a result, several "best" AD definitions for the QRPR models predicting reaction characteristics have been revealed and tested on a previously published external dataset with a clear AD definition problem.

Structure-reactivity modeling using mixture-based representation of chemical reactions

We describe a novel approach of reaction representation as a combination of two mixtures: a mixture of reactants and a mixture of products. In turn, each mixture can be encoded using an earlier reported approach involving simplex descriptors (SiRMS). The feature vector representing these two mixtures results from either concatenated product and reactant descriptors or the difference between descriptors of products and reactants. This reaction representation doesn't need an explicit labeling of a reaction center. The rigorous "product-out" cross-validation (CV) strategy has been suggested. Unlike the naïve "reaction-out" CV approach based on a random selection of items, the proposed one provides with more realistic estimation of prediction accuracy for reactions resulting in novel products. The new methodology has been applied to model rate constants of E2 reactions. It has been demonstrated that the use of the fragment control domain applicability approach significantly increases prediction accuracy of the models. The models obtained with new "mixture" approach performed better than those required either explicit (Condensed Graph of Reaction) or implicit (reaction fingerprints) reaction center labeling.