Assessing complexity and dynamics in epidemics: geographical barriers and facilitators of foot-and-mouth disease dissemination

Introduction

Physical and non-physical processes that occur in nature may influence biological processes, such as dissemination of infectious diseases. However, such processes may be hard to detect when they are complex systems. Because complexity is a dynamic and non-linear interaction among numerous elements and structural levels in which specific effects are not necessarily linked to any one specific element, cause-effect connections are rarely or poorly observed.

Methods

To test this hypothesis, the complex and dynamic properties of geo-biological data were explored with high-resolution epidemiological data collected in the 2001 Uruguayan foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epizootic that mainly affected cattle. County-level data on cases, farm density, road density, river density, and the ratio of road (or river) length/county perimeter were analyzed with an open-ended procedure that identified geographical clustering in the first 11 epidemic weeks. Two questions were asked: (i) do geo-referenced epidemiologic data display complex properties? and (ii) can such properties facilitate or prevent disease dissemination?

Results

Emergent patterns were detected when complex data structures were analyzed, which were not observed when variables were assessed individually. Complex properties-including data circularity-were demonstrated. The emergent patterns helped identify 11 counties as 'disseminators' or 'facilitators' (F) and 264 counties as 'barriers' (B) of epidemic spread. In the early epidemic phase, F and B counties differed in terms of road density and FMD case density. Focusing on non-biological, geographical data, a second analysis indicated that complex relationships may identify B-like counties even before epidemics occur.

Discussion

Geographical barriers and/or promoters of disease dispersal may precede the introduction of emerging pathogens. If corroborated, the analysis of geo-referenced complexity may support anticipatory epidemiological policies.

Transcriptomic and phenotype analysis revealed the role of rpoS in stress resistance and virulence of pathogenic Enterobacter cloacae from Macrobrachium rosenbergii

Enterobacter cloacae is widely distributed in the aquatic environment, and has been determined as a novel pathogen of various aquatic animals recently. Our previous studies have indicated E. cloacae caused repeated infections in Macrobrachium rosenbergii, suggesting a high survival ability of the bacteria, and rpoS gene has been known to regulate stress response and virulence of many bacteria. In this study, the E. cloacae-rpoS RNAi strain was constructed by RNAi technology, and the regulation role of rpoS in stress resistance and virulence of E. cloacae was explored by transcriptomic and phenotype analysis. The transcriptome analysis showed a total of 488 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified between rpoS-RNAi and wild-type strains, including 30 up-regulated genes and 458 down-regulated genes, and these down-regulated DEGs were mainly related to environmental response, biofilm formation, bacterial type II secretory system, flagellin, fimbrillin, and chemotactic protein which associated with bacterial survival and virulence. The phenotype changes also showed the E. cloacae-rpoS RNAi strain exhibited significantly decreasing abilities of survival in environmental stresses (starvation, salinity, low pH, and oxidative stress), biofilm production, movement, adhesion to cells, pathogenicity, and colonization to M. rosenbergii. These results reveal that rpoS plays an important regulatory role in environmental stress adaptation and virulence of E. cloacae.