Predicting the outcome of renal transplantation

Outcomes of kidneys used for transplantation: an analysis of survival and function

Introduction

Kidney transplant recipients expect to survive the procedure with sufficient renal function for reliable dialysis freedom.

Methods

Transplant outcomes (survival and estimated renal function) were assessed after live and deceased donor transplantation from the US national database. Outcomes were stratified by age (donor and recipient) and donor type.

Results

Aggregate recipient outcomes were better transplanting living vs deceased donated kidneys. However, when stratified by the one-year renal function (within KDIGO CKD stage stratifications), surviving recipients had clinically similar dialysis-freedom, irrespective of donor type or age. The major outcome differences for recipients of age-stratified live and deceased kidneys was 1) the increasing frequency of one-year graft failures and 2) the increasing likelihood of severely limited renal function (CKD 4/5) with advancing donor age. Over 30% of recipients of deceased kidneys >65 years had either one-year graft failure or severely limited renal function contrasted to less than 15% of recipients of live kidneys aged >65 years.

Conclusions

Evolving techniques to reduce adverse events after urgent vs elective procedures, plus improved transplant outcome predictability with increased-age deceased donor kidneys using advanced predictive analytics (using age-stratified live kidney transplantation outcomes as a relevant reference point) should facilitate similar kidney transplant outcomes, irrespective of donor type.

Using Regression Equations to Enhance Interpretation of Histology Lesions of Kidney Transplant Rejection

BACKGROUND

The Banff system for histologic diagnosis of rejection in kidney transplant biopsies uses guidelines to assess designated features-lesions, donor-specific antibody (DSA), and C4d staining. We explored whether using regression equations to interpret the features as well as current guidelines could establish the relative importance of each feature and improve histologic interpretation.

METHODS

We developed logistic regression equations using the designated features to predict antibody-mediated rejection (AMR/mixed) and T-cell-mediated rejection (TCMR/mixed) in 1679 indication biopsies from the INTERCOMEX study ( ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01299168). Equations were trained on molecular diagnoses independent of the designated features.

RESULTS

In regression and random forests, the important features predicting molecular rejection were as follows: for AMR, ptc and g, followed by cg; for TCMR, t > i. V-lesions were relatively unimportant. C4d and DSA were also relatively unimportant for predicting AMR: by AUC, the model excluding them (0.853) was nearly as good as the model including them (0.860). Including time posttransplant slightly but significantly improved all models. By AUC, regression predicted molecular AMR and TCMR better than Banff histologic diagnoses. More importantly, in biopsies called "no rejection" by Banff guidelines, regression equations based on histology features identified histologic and molecular rejection-related changes in some biopsies and improved survival predictions. Thus, regression can screen for missed rejection.

CONCLUSIONS

Using lesion-based regression equations in addition to Banff histology guidelines defines the relative important of histology features for identifying rejection, allows screening for potential missed diagnoses, and permits early estimates of AMR when C4d and DSA are not available.

Differences between Kidney Transplant Recipients from Deceased Donors with Diabetes Mellitus as Identified by Machine Learning Consensus Clustering

Clinical outcomes of deceased donor kidney transplants coming from diabetic donors currently remain inconsistent, possibly due to high heterogeneities in this population. Our study aimed to cluster recipients of diabetic deceased donor kidney transplants using an unsupervised machine learning approach in order to identify subgroups with high risk of inferior outcomes and potential variables associated with these outcomes. Consensus cluster analysis was performed based on recipient-, donor-, and transplant-related characteristics in 7876 recipients of diabetic deceased donor kidney transplants from 2010 to 2019 in the OPTN/UNOS database. We determined the important characteristics of each assigned cluster and compared the post-transplant outcomes between the clusters. Consensus cluster analysis identified three clinically distinct clusters. Recipients in cluster 1 (n = 2903) were characterized by oldest age (64 ± 8 years), highest rate of comorbid diabetes mellitus (55%). They were more likely to receive kidney allografts from donors that were older (58 ± 6.3 years), had hypertension (89%), met expanded criteria donor (ECD) status (78%), had a high rate of cerebrovascular death (63%), and carried a high kidney donor profile index (KDPI). Recipients in cluster 2 (n = 687) were younger (49 ± 13 years) and all were re-transplant patients with higher panel reactive antibodies (PRA) (88 [IQR 46, 98]) who received kidneys from younger (44 ± 11 years), non-ECD deceased donors (88%) with low numbers of HLA mismatch (4 [IQR 2, 5]). The cluster 3 cohort was characterized by first-time kidney transplant recipients (100%) who received kidney allografts from younger (42 ± 11 years), non-ECD deceased donors (98%). Compared to cluster 3, cluster 1 had higher incidence of primary non-function, delayed graft function, patient death and death-censored graft failure, whereas cluster 2 had higher incidence of delayed graft function and death-censored graft failure but comparable primary non-function and patient death. An unsupervised machine learning approach characterized diabetic donor kidney transplant patients into three clinically distinct clusters with differing outcomes. Our data highlight opportunities to improve utilization of high KDPI kidneys coming from diabetic donors in recipients with survival-limiting comorbidities such as those observed in cluster 1.

Predicting older-donor kidneys' post-transplant renal function using pre-transplant data

This paper provides a methodology for predicting post-transplant kidney function, that is, the 1-year post-transplant estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR-1) for each donor-candidate pair. We apply customized machine-learning algorithms to pre-transplant donor and recipient data to determine the probability of achieving an eGFR-1 of at least 30 ml/min. This threshold was chosen because there is insufficient survival benefit if the kidney fails to generate an eGFR-1 ≥ 30 ml/min. For some donor-candidate pairs, the developed algorithm provides highly accurate predictions. For others, limitations of previous transplants' data results in noisier predictions. However, because the same kidney is offered to many candidates, we identify those pairs for whom the predictions are highly accurate. Out of 6977 discarded older-donor kidneys that were a match with at least one transplanted kidney, 5282 had one or more identified candidate, who were offered that kidney, did not accept any other offer, and would have had ≥80% chance of achieving eGFR-1 ≥ 30 ml/min, had the kidney been transplanted. We also show that transplants with ≥80% chance of achieving eGFR-1 ≥ 30 ml/min and that survive 1 year have higher 10-year death-censored graft survival probabilities than all older-donor transplants that survive 1 year (73.61% vs. 70.48%, respectively).

Personalized Prediction of Kidney Function Decline and Network Analysis of the Risk Factors after Kidney Transplantation Using Nationwide Cohort Data

We developed a machine-learning-based model that could predict a decrease in one-year graft function after kidney transplantation, and investigated the risk factors of the decreased function. A total of 4317 cases were included from the Korean Organ Transplant Registry (2014−2019). An XGBoost model was trained to predict the recipient’s one-year estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) below 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 using 112 pre- and peri-transplantation variables. The network of model factors was drawn using inter-factor partial correlations and the statistical significance of each factor. The model with seven features achieved an area under the curve of 0.82, sensitivity of 0.73, and specificity of 0.79. The model prediction was associated with five-year graft and rejection-free survival. Post-transplantation hospitalization >25 days and eGFR ≥ 88.0 were the prominent risk and preventive factors, respectively. Donor age and post-transplantation eGFR < 59.8 were connected to multiple risk factors on the network. Therefore, careful donor−recipient matching in older donors, and avoiding pre-transplantation risk factors, would reduce the risk of graft dysfunction. The model might improve long-term graft outcomes by supporting early detection of graft dysfunction, and proactive risk factor control.

Deep Learning Algorithms for the Prediction of Posttransplant Renal Function in Deceased-Donor Kidney Recipients: A Preliminary Study Based on Pretransplant Biopsy

Background

Posttransplant renal function is critically important for kidney transplant recipients. Accurate prediction of graft function would greatly help in deciding acceptance or discard of allocated kidneys.

Methods

: Whole-slide images (WSIs) of H&E-stained donor kidney biopsies at × 200 magnification between January 2015 and December 2019 were collected. The clinical characteristics of each donor and corresponding recipient were retrieved. Graft function was indexed with a stable estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and reduced graft function (RGF). We used convolutional neural network (CNN)-based models, such as EfficientNet-B5, Inception-V3, and VGG19 for the prediction of these two outcomes.

Results

In total, 219 recipients with H&E-stained slides of the donor kidneys were included for analysis [biopsies from standard criteria donor (SCD)/expanded criteria donor (ECD) was 191/28]. The results showed distinct improvements in the prediction performance of the deep learning algorithm plus the clinical characteristics model. The EfficientNet-B5 plus clinical data model showed the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). Compared with the clinical data model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of the clinical data plus image model for eGFR classification increased from 0.69 to 0.83. In addition, the predictive performance for RGF increased from 0.66 to 0.80. Gradient-weighted class activation mappings (Grad-CAMs) showed that the models localized the areas of the tubules and interstitium near the glomeruli, which were discriminative features for RGF.

Conclusion

Our results preliminarily show that deep learning for formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded H&E-stained WSIs improves graft function prediction accuracy for deceased-donor kidney transplant recipients.

Machine learning support for decision making in kidney transplantation: step-by-step development of a technological solution (Preprint)

Background

Kidney transplantation is the preferred treatment option for patients with end-stage renal disease. To maximize patient and graft survival, the allocation of donor organs to potential recipients requires careful consideration.

Objective

This study aimed to develop an innovative technological solution to enable better prediction of kidney transplant survival for each potential donor-recipient pair.

Methods

We used deidentified data on past organ donors, recipients, and transplant outcomes in the United States from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. To predict transplant outcomes for potential donor-recipient pairs, we used several survival analysis models, including regression analysis (Cox proportional hazards), random survival forests, and several artificial neural networks (DeepSurv, DeepHit, and recurrent neural network [RNN]). We evaluated the performance of each model in terms of its ability to predict the probability of graft survival after kidney transplantation from deceased donors. Three metrics were used: the C-index, integrated Brier score, and integrated calibration index, along with calibration plots.

Results

On the basis of the C-index metrics, the neural network–based models (DeepSurv, DeepHit, and RNN) had better discriminative ability than the Cox model and random survival forest model (0.650, 0.661, and 0.659 vs 0.646 and 0.644, respectively). The proposed RNN model offered a compromise between the good discriminative ability and calibration and was implemented in a technological solution of technology readiness level 4.

Conclusions

Our technological solution based on the RNN model can effectively predict kidney transplant survival and provide support for medical professionals and candidate recipients in determining the most optimal donor-recipient pair.

The Future Role of Machine Learning in Clinical Transplantation

The use of artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) has revolutionized our daily lives and will soon be instrumental in healthcare delivery. The rise of ML is due to multiple factors: increasing access to massive datasets, exponential increases in processing power, and key algorithmic developments that allow ML models to tackle increasingly challenging questions. Progressively more transplantation research is exploring the potential utility of ML models throughout the patient journey, although this has not yet widely transitioned into the clinical domain. In this review, we explore common approaches used in ML in solid organ clinical transplantation and consider opportunities for ML to help clinicians and patients. We discuss ways in which ML can aid leverage of large complex datasets, generate cutting-edge prediction models, perform clinical image analysis, discover novel markers in molecular data, and fuse datasets to generate novel insights in modern transplantation practice. We focus on key areas in transplantation in which ML is driving progress, explore the future potential roles of ML, and discuss the challenges and limitations of these powerful tools.

Toward Advancing Long-Term Outcomes of Kidney Transplantation with Artificial Intelligence

After decades of pioneering advances and improvements, kidney transplantation is now the renal replacement therapy of choice for most patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Despite this success, the high risk of premature death and frequent occurrence of graft failure remain important clinical and research challenges. The current burst of studies and other innovative initiatives using artificial intelligence (AI) for a wide range of analytical and practical applications in biomedical areas seems to correlate with the same trend observed in publications in the kidney transplantation field, and points toward the potential of such novel approaches to address the aforementioned aim of improving long-term outcomes of kidney transplant recipients (KTR). However, at the same time, this trend underscores now more than ever the old methodological challenges and potential threats that the research and clinical community needs to be aware of and actively look after with regard to AI-driven evidence. The purpose of this narrative mini-review is to explore challenges for obtaining applicable and adequate kidney transplant data for analyses using AI techniques to develop prediction models, and to propose next steps in the field. We make a call to act toward establishing the strong collaborations needed to bring innovative synergies further augmented by AI, which have the potential to impact the long-term care of KTR. We encourage researchers and clinicians to submit their invaluable research, including original clinical and imaging studies, database studies from registries, meta-analyses, and AI research in the kidney transplantation field.

Machine learning to predict transplant outcomes: helpful or hype? A national cohort study

An increasing number of studies claim machine learning (ML) predicts transplant outcomes more accurately. However, these claims were possibly confounded by other factors, namely, supplying new variables to ML models. To better understand the prospects of ML in transplantation, we compared ML to conventional regression in a "common" analytic task: predicting kidney transplant outcomes using national registry data. We studied 133 431 adult deceased-donor kidney transplant recipients between 2005 and 2017. Transplant centers were randomly divided into 70% training set (190 centers/97 787 recipients) and 30% validation set (82 centers/35 644 recipients). Using the training set, we performed regression and ML procedures [gradient boosting (GB) and random forests (RF)] to predict delayed graft function, one-year acute rejection, death-censored graft failure C, all-cause graft failure, and death. Their performances were compared on the validation set using -statistics. In predicting rejection, regression (C = 0.601 0.6110.621 ) actually outperformed GB (C = 0.581 0.5910.601 ) and RF (C = 0.569 0.5790.589 ). For all other outcomes, the C-statistics were nearly identical across methods (delayed graft function, 0.717-0.723; death-censored graft failure, 0.637-0.642; all-cause graft failure, 0.633-0.635; and death, 0.705-0.708). Given its shortcomings in model interpretability and hypothesis testing, ML is advantageous only when it clearly outperforms conventional regression; in the case of transplant outcomes prediction, ML seems more hype than helpful.

Machine learning in predicting graft failure following kidney transplantation: A systematic review of published predictive models

INTRODUCTION

Machine learning has been increasingly used to develop predictive models to diagnose different disease conditions. The heterogeneity of the kidney transplant population makes predicting graft outcomes extremely challenging. Several kidney graft outcome prediction models have been developed using machine learning, and are available in the literature. However, a systematic review of machine learning based prediction methods applied to kidney transplant has not been done to date. The main aim of our study was to perform an in-depth systematic analysis of different machine learning methods used to predict graft outcomes among kidney transplant patients, and assess their usefulness as an aid to decision-making.

METHODS

A systemic review of machine learning methods used to predict graft outcomes among kidney transplant patients was carried out using a search of the Medline, the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, EMBASE, PsycINFO and Cochrane databases.

RESULTS

A total of 295 articles were identified and extracted. Of these, 18 met the inclusion criteria. Most of the studies were published in the United States after 2010. The population size used to develop the models varied from 80 to 92,844, and the number of features in the models ranged from 6 to 71. The most common machine learning methods used were artificial neural networks, decision trees and Bayesian belief networks. Most of the machine learning based predictive models predicted graft failure with high sensitivity and specificity. Only one machine learning based prediction model had modelled time-to-event (survival) information. Seven studies compared the predictive performance of machine learning models with traditional regression methods and the performance of machine learning methods was found to be mixed, when compared with traditional regression methods.

CONCLUSION

There was a wide variation in the size of the study population and the input variables used. However, the prediction accuracy provided mixed results when machine learning and traditional predictive methods are compared. Based on reported gains in predictive performance, machine learning has the potential to improve kidney transplant outcome prediction and aid medical decision making.

Predicting the function of transplanted kidney in long-term care processes: Application of a hybrid model

BACKGROUND

A tool that can predict the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in routine daily care can help clinicians to make better decisions for kidney transplant patients and to improve transplantation outcome. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid prediction model for predicting a future value for eGFR during long-term care processes.

METHODS

Longitudinal, historical data of 942 transplant patients who received a kidney between 2001 and 2016 at Urmia kidney transplant center was used to develop a hybrid model. The model was based on three primary models: multi-layer perceptron (MLP), linear regression (LR), and a model that predicted a smoothed value of eGFR. The hybrid model used at-hand, longitudinal data of physical examinations and laboratory test values available at each visit. Two different datasets, a generalized dataset (GData) and a personalized dataset (PData), were created. Then, in both datasets, two data subsets of development and validation were created. For prediction, all records related to the fourth to tenth previous visits of patients in time order from the target date, i.e., window size (WS) = 4-10, were used. The performance of the models was evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The differences between the models were evaluated with the F-test and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC).

RESULTS

The datasets contained 35,066 records, totally. The GData contained 26,210 and 8856 records and the PData had 24,079 and 9103 records in the development and validation datasets, respectively. In the hybrid model, the MSE and MAE were 153 and 8.9 in the GData, and 113 and 7.5 in the PData, respectively. The model performance improved using a wider WS of historical records (from 4 to 10). When the WS of ten was used the MSE and MAE declined to 141 and 8.5 in the GData and to 91 and 6.9 in the PData, respectively. In both datasets, the F-test showed that the hybrid model was significantly different from other models. The AIC showed that the hybrid model had a better performance than that of others.

CONCLUSIONS

The hybrid model can predict a reliable future value for eGFR. Our results showed that longitudinal covariates help the models to produce better results. Smoothing eGFR values and using a personalized dataset to develop the models also improved the models' performances. They can be considered as a step forward towards personalized medicine.

EMR-based medical knowledge representation and inference via Markov random fields and distributed representation learning

OBJECTIVE

Electronic medical records (EMRs) contain medical knowledge that can be used for clinical decision support (CDS). Our objective is to develop a general system that can extract and represent knowledge contained in EMRs to support three CDS tasks-test recommendation, initial diagnosis, and treatment plan recommendation-given the condition of a patient.

METHODS

We extracted four kinds of medical entities from records and constructed an EMR-based medical knowledge network (EMKN), in which nodes are entities and edges reflect their co-occurrence in a record. Three bipartite subgraphs (bigraphs) were extracted from the EMKN, one to support each task. One part of the bigraph was the given condition (e.g., symptoms), and the other was the condition to be inferred (e.g., diseases). Each bigraph was regarded as a Markov random field (MRF) to support the inference. We proposed three graph-based energy functions and three likelihood-based energy functions. Two of these functions are based on knowledge representation learning and can provide distributed representations of medical entities. Two EMR datasets and three metrics were utilized to evaluate the performance.

RESULTS

As a whole, the evaluation results indicate that the proposed system outperformed the baseline methods. The distributed representation of medical entities does reflect similarity relationships with respect to knowledge level.

CONCLUSION

Combining EMKN and MRF is an effective approach for general medical knowledge representation and inference. Different tasks, however, require individually designed energy functions.

Modelling Predictors of Molecular Response to Frontline Imatinib for Patients with Chronic Myeloid Leukaemia

BACKGROUND

Treatment of patients with chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) has become increasingly difficult in recent years due to the variety of treatment options available and challenge deciding on the most appropriate treatment strategy for an individual patient. To facilitate the treatment strategy decision, disease assessment should involve molecular response to initial treatment for an individual patient. Patients predicted not to achieve major molecular response (MMR) at 24 months to frontline imatinib may be better treated with alternative frontline therapies, such as nilotinib or dasatinib. The aims of this study were to i) understand the clinical prediction 'rules' for predicting MMR at 24 months for CML patients treated with imatinib using clinical, molecular, and cell count observations (predictive factors collected at diagnosis and categorised based on available knowledge) and ii) develop a predictive model for CML treatment management. This predictive model was developed, based on CML patients undergoing imatinib therapy enrolled in the TIDEL II clinical trial with an experimentally identified achieving MMR group and non-achieving MMR group, by addressing the challenge as a machine learning problem. The recommended model was validated externally using an independent data set from King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Saudi Arabia.

PRINCIPLE FINDINGS

The common prognostic scores yielded similar sensitivity performance in testing and validation datasets and are therefore good predictors of the positive group. The G-mean and F-score values in our models outperformed the common prognostic scores in testing and validation datasets and are therefore good predictors for both the positive and negative groups. Furthermore, a high PPV above 65% indicated that our models are appropriate for making decisions at diagnosis and pre-therapy. Study limitations include that prior knowledge may change based on varying expert opinions; hence, representing the category boundaries of each predictive factor could dramatically change performance of the models.

Prediction of delayed graft function after kidney transplantation: comparison between logistic regression and machine learning methods

Background

Predictive models for delayed graft function (DGF) after kidney transplantation are usually developed using logistic regression. We want to evaluate the value of machine learning methods in the prediction of DGF.

Methods

497 kidney transplantations from deceased donors at the Ghent University Hospital between 2005 and 2011 are included. A feature elimination procedure is applied to determine the optimal number of features, resulting in 20 selected parameters (24 parameters after conversion to indicator parameters) out of 55 retrospectively collected parameters. Subsequently, 9 distinct types of predictive models are fitted using the reduced data set: logistic regression (LR), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), support vector machines (SVMs; using linear, radial basis function and polynomial kernels), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB). Performance of the models is assessed by computing sensitivity, positive predictive values and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) after 10-fold stratified cross-validation. AUROCs of the models are pairwise compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank test.

Results

The observed incidence of DGF is 12.5 %. DT is not able to discriminate between recipients with and without DGF (AUROC of 52.5 %) and is inferior to the other methods. SGB, RF and polynomial SVM are mainly able to identify recipients without DGF (AUROC of 77.2, 73.9 and 79.8 %, respectively) and only outperform DT. LDA, QDA, radial SVM and LR also have the ability to identify recipients with DGF, resulting in higher discriminative capacity (AUROC of 82.2, 79.6, 83.3 and 81.7 %, respectively), which outperforms DT and RF. Linear SVM has the highest discriminative capacity (AUROC of 84.3 %), outperforming each method, except for radial SVM, polynomial SVM and LDA. However, it is the only method superior to LR.

Conclusions

The discriminative capacities of LDA, linear SVM, radial SVM and LR are the only ones above 80 %. None of the pairwise AUROC comparisons between these models is statistically significant, except linear SVM outperforming LR. Additionally, the sensitivity of linear SVM to identify recipients with DGF is amongst the three highest of all models. Due to both reasons, the authors believe that linear SVM is most appropriate to predict DGF.

Time-series analysis in the medical domain: a study of Tacrolimus administration and influence on kidney graft function

There exists a major concern regarding toxic effects of immunosuppressive medication on the kidney graft during post-transplant care, with observed variation in individual susceptibility to adverse drug effects amongst patients. To date, there has been no possibility to identify susceptible patients prospectively. This study analyzes medical data which includes time series of measures of renal function and trough levels of immunosuppressive drug Tacrolimus, with the main aim of identifying patients susceptible to drug toxicity. We evaluate a plethora of time-series distance measures, determining their appropriateness to the domain based on two criteria: (1) preserving the expected correlations between distances, and (2) ability to detect the expected patterns of interaction between immunosuppressive drug levels and renal function. Besides identifying the most suitable time-series distance measures, we observed that the majority of patients do not exhibit an association between impaired graft function and higher Tacrolimus dosing. On the other hand, the minority of patients determined most sensitive to varying Tacrolimus levels showed a strong tendency to prefer low Tacrolimus dosing.

Grid Binary LOgistic REgression (GLORE): building shared models without sharing data

Objective

The classification of complex or rare patterns in clinical and genomic data requires the availability of a large, labeled patient set. While methods that operate on large, centralized data sources have been extensively used, little attention has been paid to understanding whether models such as binary logistic regression (LR) can be developed in a distributed manner, allowing researchers to share models without necessarily sharing patient data.

Material and methods

Instead of bringing data to a central repository for computation, we bring computation to the data. The Grid Binary LOgistic REgression (GLORE) model integrates decomposable partial elements or non-privacy sensitive prediction values to obtain model coefficients, the variance-covariance matrix, the goodness-of-fit test statistic, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results

We conducted experiments on both simulated and clinically relevant data, and compared the computational costs of GLORE with those of a traditional LR model estimated using the combined data. We showed that our results are the same as those of LR to a 10⁻¹⁵ precision. In addition, GLORE is computationally efficient.

Limitation

In GLORE, the calculation of coefficient gradients must be synchronized at different sites, which involves some effort to ensure the integrity of communication. Ensuring that the predictors have the same format and meaning across the data sets is necessary.

Conclusion

The results suggest that GLORE performs as well as LR and allows data to remain protected at their original sites.

A patient-driven adaptive prediction technique to improve personalized risk estimation for clinical decision support

Objective

Competing tools are available online to assess the risk of developing certain conditions of interest, such as cardiovascular disease. While predictive models have been developed and validated on data from cohort studies, little attention has been paid to ensure the reliability of such predictions for individuals, which is critical for care decisions. The goal was to develop a patient-driven adaptive prediction technique to improve personalized risk estimation for clinical decision support.

Material and methods

A data-driven approach was proposed that utilizes individualized confidence intervals (CIs) to select the most ‘appropriate’ model from a pool of candidates to assess the individual patient's clinical condition. The method does not require access to the training dataset. This approach was compared with other strategies: the BEST model (the ideal model, which can only be achieved by access to data or knowledge of which population is most similar to the individual), CROSS model, and RANDOM model selection.

Results

When evaluated on clinical datasets, the approach significantly outperformed the CROSS model selection strategy in terms of discrimination (p<1e–14) and calibration (p<0.006). The method outperformed the RANDOM model selection strategy in terms of discrimination (p<1e–12), but the improvement did not achieve significance for calibration (p=0.1375).

Limitations

The CI may not always offer enough information to rank the reliability of predictions, and this evaluation was done using aggregation. If a particular individual is very different from those represented in a training set of existing models, the CI may be somewhat misleading.

Conclusion

This approach has the potential to offer more reliable predictions than those offered by other heuristics for disease risk estimation of individual patients.