Predicting the 10-year risk of cataract surgery using machine learning techniques on questionnaire data: findings from the 45 and Up Study

Machine learning-assisted prediction of trabeculectomy outcomes among patients of juvenile glaucoma by using 5-year follow-up data

OBJECTIVE

To develop machine learning (ML) models, using pre and intraoperative surgical parameters, for predicting trabeculectomy outcomes in the eyes of patients with juvenile-onset primary open-angle glaucoma (JOAG) undergoing primary surgery.

SUBJECTS

The study included 207 JOAG patients from a single center who met the following criteria: diagnosed between 10 and 40 years of age, with an IOP of >22 mmHg in the eyes on two or more occasions, open angle on gonioscopy in both eyes, with glaucomatous optic neuropathy, and requiring a trabeculectomy for IOP control. Only the patients with a minimum 5-year follow-up after surgery were included in the study.

METHODS

A successful surgical outcome was defined as IOP ≤18 mmHg (criterion A) or 50% reduction in IOP from baseline (criterion B) 5 years after trabeculectomy. Feature selection techniques were used to select the most important contributory parameters, and tenfold cross-validation was used to evaluate model performance. The ML models were evaluated, compared, and prioritized based on their accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, Matthew correlation coefficient (MCC) index, and mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The prioritized models were further optimized by tuning the hyperparameters, and feature contributions were evaluated. In addition, an unbiased relationship analysis among the parameters was performed for clinical utility.

RESULTS

Age at diagnosis, preoperative baseline IOP, duration of preoperative medical treatment, Tenon's thickness, scleral fistulation technique, and intraoperative mitomycin C (MMC) use, were identified as the main contributing parameters for developing efficient models. The three models developed for a consensus-based outcome to predict trabeculectomy success showed an accuracy of >86%, sensitivity of >90%, and specificity of >74%, using tenfold cross-validation. The use of intraoperative MMC and a punch for scleral fistulation compared to the traditional excision with scissors were significantly associated with long-term success of trabeculectomy.

CONCLUSION

Optimizing surgical parameters by using these ML models might reduce surgical failures associated with trabeculectomy and provide more realistic expectations regarding surgical outcomes in young patients.

Retrospective analysis of cataract surgery outcomes in China from 2009 to 2018: from a national registry system data

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate patients' benefits after cataract surgery and to form recommendations for Chinese national health policy decision makers and administration departments based on the quality of cataract treatments.

METHOD

An observational study based on real-world data source from the National Cataract Recovery Surgery Information Registration and Reporting System.

RESULTS

A total of 14 157 463 original records were reported from 1 July 2009 to 31 December 2018. The factors that influenced the 3-day postsurgical best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), the primary outcome, were analysed by logistic regression analysis. We found that a history of hypertension (OR=0.916) or diabetes (OR=0.912), presurgical pupil abnormality (OR=0.571) and high intraocular pressure (OR=0.578) were harmful to the postsurgical BCVA improvement (BCVA ≥6/20), while male sex (OR=1.113), better presurgical BCVA level (OR=5.996 for ≥6/12-<6/7.5 and OR=2.610 for >6/60-<6/12 taken ≤6/60 as reference), age-related cataract (OR=1.825) and intraocular lens implantation (OR=1.886) were statistically beneficial to the postsurgical BCVA improvement. Compared with extracapsular cataract extraction (ECCE) with large incision, the ECCE with small incision (OR value=1.810) and the phacoemulsification (OR=1.420) significantly improved the benefit probability.

CONCLUSION

ECCE with small incision has comparable effects on postsurgical BCVA improvement of phacoemulsification. Therefore, ECCE could be an alternative cataract surgical treatment in economically underdeveloped areas in China, provided the surgeons are adequately trained.

Recent Advances in Screening and Treatment for Amblyopia

Amblyopia is the most common cause of monocular visual impairment in children, with a prevalence of 2-3%. Not only is visual acuity reduced in one eye but binocular vision is affected, fellow eye deficits may be present, eye-hand coordination and reading can be affected, and self-perception may be diminished. New technologies for preschool vision screening hold promise for accessible, early, and accurate detection of amblyopia. Together with recent advances in our theoretical understanding of amblyopia and technological advances in amblyopia treatment, we anticipate improved visual outcomes for children affected by this very common eye condition. This article is based on previously conducted studies and does not contain any new studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors.