Variability in serial CD4 counts and relation to progression of HIV-I infection to AIDS in haemophilic patients. Transfusion Safety Study Group

The CD4 lymphocyte count and risk of clinical progression

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The CD4 lymphocyte count was identified as a key predictor of risk of AIDS defining diseases almost 20 years ago, early in the HIV epidemic. Several issues concerning its use to predict AIDS have arisen since. These include the difference between short and long-term prediction, the use of CD4 percentage compared with absolute counts, the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the predictive value of the CD4 count, the role relative to other markers such as viral load, the derivation of scores to predict AIDS diseases, the use of CD4 count as a surrogate endpoint, the role of the CD4 count nadir compared with the current value and the differential ability to predict different AIDS diseases.

RECENT FINDINGS

All the above issues have been clarified further and this process has continued through 2004 and 2005. These developments are briefly described in this review.

SUMMARY

The CD4 count remains the strongest short-term predictor of risk of AIDS so far identified in both treated and untreated patients and should continue to be a mainstay of monitoring for both untreated and treated patients.

Pretreatment CD4 cell slope and progression to AIDS or death in HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy--the CASCADE collaboration: a collaboration of 23 cohort studies

BACKGROUND

CD4 cell count is a strong predictor of the subsequent risk of AIDS or death in HIV-infected patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). It is not known whether the rate of CD4 cell decline prior to therapy is related to prognosis and should, therefore, influence the decision on when to initiate cART.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We carried out survival analyses of patients from the 23 cohorts of the CASCADE (Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe) collaboration with a known date of HIV seroconversion and with at least two CD4 measurements prior to initiating cART. For each patient, a pre-cART CD4 slope was estimated using a linear mixed effects model. Our primary outcome was time from initiating cART to a first new AIDS event or death. We included 2,820 treatment-naïve patients initiating cART with a median (interquartile range) pre-cART CD4 cell decline of 61 (46-81) cells/microl per year; 255 patients subsequently experienced a new AIDS event or death and 125 patients died. In an analysis adjusted for established risk factors, the hazard ratio for AIDS or death was 1.01 (95% confidence interval 0.97-1.04) for each 10 cells/microl per year reduction in pre-cART CD4 cell decline. There was also no association between pre-cART CD4 cell slope and survival. Alternative estimates of CD4 cell slope gave similar results. In 1,731 AIDS-free patients with >350 CD4 cells/microl from the pre-cART era, the rate of CD4 cell decline was also not significantly associated with progression to AIDS or death (hazard ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.94-1.03, for each 10 cells/microl per year reduction in CD4 cell decline).

CONCLUSIONS

The CD4 cell slope does not improve the prediction of clinical outcome in patients with a CD4 cell count above 350 cells/microl. Knowledge of the current CD4 cell count is sufficient when deciding whether to initiate cART in asymptomatic patients. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Incidence of presumed cytomegalovirus retinitis in HIV-infected pediatric patients

INTRODUCTION

Large population studies of adult patients suggest an incidence of cytomegalovirus (CMV) retinitis as high as 19% to 20% as a late complication of adult HIV infection. We conducted this prospective study of a large cohort of HIV-infected children to determine the incidence of CMV retinitis in HIV-infected children.

METHODS

From January 1984 to August 1997, 173 HIV-infected children were followed up for an average of 55.3 months (13-164 months). The patients were seen in the Department of Pediatrics at least once every 6 months. Ophthalmologic examinations were initiated when a patient's CD4 count dropped below 50 or sooner if required for ophthalmologic or other indications. Ophthalmologic examination was then repeated every 6 months.

RESULTS

A total of 116 (67%) of 173 patients underwent ophthalmologic examination. Four (3.4%) of 116 patients had CMV retinitis at a mean time of 17.3 months (8-38 months) after their CD4 counts dropped below 20. None of the 4 patients with CMV retinitis had subjective visual complaints despite advanced retinitis. Three patients had bilateral and 1 patient had unilateral CMV retinitis.

CONCLUSIONS

CMV retinitis occurred infrequently in HIV-infected pediatric patients and was diagnosed only in patients with a CD4 count below 20. Routine ophthalmologic screening examinations may not be necessary in pediatric patients until the CD4 count is below 20. Because children may not complain of decreased vision, at-risk children should undergo frequent ophthalmologic examination.

Clotting factor concentrates and immune function in haemophilic patients

Patients with haemophilia often exhibit a variety of disturbances in immune function. Although infections with HIV, hepatitis and other viruses no doubt contribute to these abnormalities, chronic exposure to extraneous proteins in clotting factor concentrates (CFCs) may also play a role. Numerous in vitro and ex vivo studies show that protein contaminants--such as immunoglobulins, fibrinogen and fibronectin--can depress various immune function indicators. Generally, such studies show that intermediate-purity CFCs are more inhibitory than very high-purity (e.g. monoclonal-purified) CFCs. In many, but not all, studies, the degree of immunosuppression correlates with the amount of intermediate-purity CFC administered over time. Among various indicators of immune function, CD4+ lymphocyte number is a marker for the progression of HIV infection, and maintenance of CD4+ number is associated with delayed progression. A number of studies suggest that, compared with intermediate-purity CFCs, use of very high-purity CFCs is associated with longer preservation of this class of lymphocytes. However, it remains to be seen whether this translates to improved long-term clinical outcomes. Further research is needed on the impact of CFCs on the immune system. For the time being, however, evidence to date favours the use of very high-purity products because they appear to preserve immune function and reduce the risk of infection with hepatitis and other viruses.

Human immunodeficiency virus infection in haemophiliacs in Taiwan: the importance of CD4 lymphocyte count in the progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome

From July 1984 to December 1996, we tested and studied 303 haemophilic patients for the infection of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Among the 261 haemophilia A patients 44 were HIV positive (16.9%), while none of the haemophilia B patients was HIV positive. The mean age of the 44 HIV-seropositive patients in 1984 was 20.6 years (2-37 years). Seven who had known seroconversion dates and 29 whose first seropositive dates were known seroconverted before 1986. Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) has developed in 16 patients, nine of whom presented with Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, three with tuberculosis infection, and 13 had died. The Kaplan-Meier estimate of the progression rate to AIDS after the date of first seropositive test is about 30% at the 10th year. The median survival time after development of AIDS obtained from the Kaplan-Meier estimate of the survival curve was 11.7 months. Statistical analysis for the covariate effects on the risk of developing AIDS by the Cox proportional hazards model revealed that there was a statistically significant negative association of the risk for progression to AIDS with the logarithm of initial CD4 cell counts (P = 0.027) and the rate of decline of CD4 cell counts (P = 0.040), but not with age (P = 0.650). In conclusion, the clinical characteristics of AIDS haemophiliacs in Taiwan were not different from that observed in western countries. Low initial CD4 cell count and sharp decline in CD4 cell counts, but not age, increased the risk of progression to AIDS.

Can repeated plasma donation by asymptomatic HIV-infected individuals delay the onset of AIDS?

Healthy HIV-positive regular donors of plasma in a programme of passive immunotherapy for AIDS patients were studied over a period of about two years. None developed symptoms of clinical progression; most seemed to make substantial gains of CD4 cells by comparison with asymptomatic individuals who were not donating. The effects of donation did not seem to diminish with repetition, and donor CD4 counts tended towards stabilizing within normal limits. Asymptomatic HIV-positive individuals were compared immunologically with 'normals' and people with AIDS, using a battery of 25 measurements on peripheral blood. The immunological profiles of donor and non-donor asymptomatics, indistinguishable at the start, became dissimilar: donors' profiles resembled AIDS less, non-donors became less like 'normal' and a few non-donor results could not be distinguished from AIDS. Improvement in the CD4 counts and amelioration of the immunological profile in donors provide prima facie evidence that plasmapheresis may be therapeutic for asymptomatic HIV-positive people. Further studies are justified.

Serial CD4 and CD8 T-lymphocyte counts and associated mortality in an HIV-2-infected population in Guinea-Bissau

In an urban community in Guinea-Bissau, we followed a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus type 2 (HIV-2) seropositive individuals (N = 47) and seronegative controls (N = 82). T-lymphocyte subset determinations were done in 1988, 1990, and 1992. Serial determinations of CD4 percentages, CD8 percentages, and CD4/CD8 ratios for the same individual were stable for 31 seropositive and 51 seronegative individuals with repeated measurements. We found no significant differences in the changes during a 2- or 4-year period in CD4 percentages, CD8 percentages, absolute CD8 T-lymphocyte counts, CD4/CD8 ratio, white blood cell counts, lymphocyte percentages, and absolute lymphocyte counts for HIV-2-seropositive compared with HIV-2-seronegative individuals. Only absolute CD4 T-lymphocyte counts changed more for the HIV-2-seropositive than for HIV-2-seronegative individuals (p = 0.037). HIV-2-infected individuals who lived with an HIV-2-infected spouse had a lower CD4/CD8 ratio and had higher mortality than HIV-2 infected individuals who lived with an uninfected spouse. However, there were no significant differences in immunological and hematological values for the 8 HIV-2 seropositive individuals who died and the 39 who survived in the 8-year follow-up period. In conclusion, progression of immunosuppression in HIV-2 infection seems to be slower than in HIV-1 infection and may not be inevitable in all individuals.

Serum 27E10 antigen: a new potential marker for staging HIV disease

MRP8 and MRP14 are myeloic related proteins expressed by most circulating and emigrated neutrophils and monocytes. Their composite molecule MRP8/14 (27E10 antigen) was shown to exhibit striking antimicrobial properties. The aim of the present study was to assess the value of MRPs as markers for detection of the different stages of HIV infection (Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, 1993). By employing the ELISA technique we measured serum concentrations of these proteins in samples from 122 HIV patients at the various stages of disease, and the results were compared with those for healthy controls. Serum levels of the heterodimeric molecule 27E10 were significantly increased (P < 0.001) in patients with CDC stages II and III, with the highest levels being in patients with stage III and acute ongoing opportunistic infections. For the single component MRP14, significantly raised levels (P < 0.05) were only found in HIV stage III individuals with acute clinical events. Similar associations were not found for MRP8 alone. Increase was not related to CD4+ cell count. There was a significant correlation between 27E10 antigen serum concentrations and levels of neopterin in patients with HIV stages II and III without acute concurrent illness. Patients being treated with Zidovudine showed no statistically significant variation in levels of 27E10 and its single components MRP8 and MRP14 compared with untreated patients. These findings suggest that elevation of MRP14 levels occurs in HIV+ individuals at later stages post-HIV infection, after the onset of opportunistic infections. 27E10 antigen is concluded to be a potential marker for the different stages of HIV disease.

Treating hemophilia

Hemophilias A and B are inherited disorders of clotting-factor production that are characterized by low levels of factor VIII- or IX-coagulant activity. The clinical course of patients with hemophilia is marked by episodes of hemorrhage, some spontaneous and some related to trauma or medical procedures. The physical well-being of patients with hemophilia is maintained by the prevention of bleeding when possible and by prompt, effective treatment of bleeding when it occurs. Factor-replacement therapy continues to be the mainstay of hemophilia treatment, but like pharmacotherapy for other disease states, it is most effective when provided within the framework of a well-designed, individualized therapeutic plan. Currently available factor concentrates have a much greater safety profile than older products, but they are not free of adverse effects. Patients with inhibitors continue to present a challenge in restoring hemostasis. Pharmacists can play an important role in the pharmaceutical care of patients with hemophilia.

Prognostic value of a novel circulating serum 90K antigen in HIV-infected haemophilia patients

We evaluated the prognostic role of a novel tumour-associated antigen, termed 90K, in a cohort of HIV+ asymptomatic haemophilia patients with known duration of seropositivity and median follow-up of about 7 years. The circulating levels of 90K are higher in HIV+ asymptomatic patients than HIV- controls. The antigen levels remain quite stable over time in non-progressing patients, while they steadily rise in patients evolving to ARC/AIDS. Baseline high 90K levels are predictive of faster progression to ARC/AIDS and shorter survival. We conclude that an elevated 90K serum level is a predictor of poor prognosis in HIV+ asymptomatic haemophiliacs.

HIV infection in haemophilia--a European cohort

Ten haemophilia centres in northern Europe have pooled data on 202 haemophilic children who were infected with HIV between 1979 and 1986. All cases were under 16 years of age on 1 July 1985. The age at infection ranged from 1-15 years. Thirty seven cases (18%) had progressed to AIDS by 1 July 1991 and 15 of these have died. Persistent generalised lymphadenopathy has been noted in 102 patients of whom 18 (17%) have developed AIDS. Twenty three of the remaining patients (23%) have not. CD4+ T cell counts have fallen steadily. Of 36 patients who have had shingles since seroconversion, 19 (53%) had counts below 0.2 x 10(9)/l. Thirty five out of 145 patients without shingles (24%) had similar values. The mean IgA concentration in patients with CD4+ T cell counts above 0.5 x 10(9)/l was 2.38 g/l, between 0.2 and 0.5 was 3.07 g/l, and in those with CD4+ T cell counts below 0.2 x 10(9)/l the mean IgA concentration was 4.58 g/l. Treatment patterns have altered between 1989 and 1991, with increased use of zidovudine in patients without AIDS and a marked increase in primary prophylaxis against pneumocystis pneumonia. This has been associated with a decline in the incidence of pneumocystis as an indicator disease in new AIDS cases from 56% in 1989 to 20% in 1991. These observations indicate that persistent generalised lymphadenopathy does not worsen the outlook, but shingles does. Rising IgA concentrations are markers for disease progression. Modern prophylactic regimens are delaying the onset of indicator disease, but CD4 values continue to fall steadily.

AIDS: the statistical basis for public health

The backcalculation method has been extensively used in AIDS modelling and forecasting. Knowledge of reported AIDS cases, information on the time between HIV infection and onset of AIDS, and assumptions on the rate at which infections occurs, can be used to reconstruct the past history of the HIV epidemic, as well as to provide short term predictions of AIDS incidence. Uncertainty in the three components of the backcalculation method and the increasingly available information on HIV prevalence must be taken into account in order to provide realistic projections. In this paper we discuss ways of acknowledging uncertainty and suggest a Bayesian formulation of the backcalculation idea as a means of combining into a single model both random and systematic variation as well as prior information.

Zalcitabine. A review of its pharmacology and clinical potential in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)

Zalcitabine is an analogue of the nucleoside deoxycytidine which, when intracellularly converted to an active triphosphate metabolite, inhibits replication of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Zalcitabine is thought to act in the early phase of HIV replication by inhibiting reverse transcriptase and terminating the viral DNA chain. In vitro, zalcitabine is one of the more effective nucleoside analogues currently in clinical use for HIV infection, with 0.5 mumol/L concentrations completely inhibiting HIV replication in human T lymphocyte cell lines. In clinical trials, p24 antigen levels decreased and CD4 cell counts increased in patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) receiving zalcitabine > or = 0.03 mg/kg/day as monotherapy. Dose-dependent adverse effects that include peripheral neuropathy, stomatitis and rash, restrict long term use at higher dosages, and it is unclear whether zalcitabine monotherapy is as effective as zidovudine in extending survival in HIV-infected patients. Alternating or concomitant therapy with zalcitabine and zidovudine provides effective inhibition of viral replication and disease progression (as measured by improvements in CD4 cell counts) with lower and less toxic dosage regimens. At present, therefore, zalcitabine has a place in AIDS therapy both in combination with zidovudine, and as monotherapy for patients unable to tolerate zidovudine.