Incidence of leukaemia and other cancers in birth and schools cohorts in the Dounreay area

Thyroid cancer incidence around the Belgian nuclear sites: surrogate exposure modelling

BACKGROUND

In a recent ecological study among residents living around Belgian nuclear sites (the NUCABEL study), significant increased incidences of thyroid cancer were observed around the two nuclear facilities with industrial and research activities (Mol-Dessel and Fleurus), prompting further research.

METHODS

The data from the NUCABEL study were reanalysed to test the hypothesis of a gradient in cancer incidence with increasing levels of exposure from these sites using three measures of surrogate exposure, being (i) residential proximity, (ii) prevailing wind directions and (iii) simulated dispersion of radioactive discharges. Single-site focussed hypothesis tests were complemented with Generalized Additive Models to estimate the exposure-response relationships.

RESULTS

For Mol-Dessel, the results of the focussed hypothesis tests were far from significant. For Fleurus, the p-values were much closer to significance with p=0.05 for Bithell's Linear Risk Score using radioactive discharge estimates as surrogate.

CONCLUSIONS

The re-analyses refute an association with the nuclear facilities for the site of Mol-Dessel. For the site of Fleurus, one of Europe's major production sites of radio-iodines, the results were less conclusive and further research suggests itself.

Updated investigations of cancer excesses in individuals born or resident in the vicinity of Sellafield and Dounreay

BACKGROUND

Earlier studies have shown raised risks of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma in children, teenagers and young adults resident either at birth or diagnosis in Seascale. Some increases in cancer risk in these age groups have also been noted among those living around Dounreay. We aimed to update previous analyses relating to areas close to these nuclear installations by considering data from an additional 16 years of follow-up.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analyses compared cancer incidence rates for 1963-2006 among those aged 0-24 years at diagnosis living in geographically specified areas around either Sellafield or Dounreay with general population rates. Cancer incidence for the period 1971-2006 among the cohort of Cumbrian births between 1950 and 2006 was compared to national incidence for 1971-2006 using person-years analysis. Cancer among those born in the postcode sector closest to Dounreay was compared with that among those born in the three adjoining postcode sectors. Analyses considered both cancer overall and ICD-O-3 defined diagnostic subgroups including leukaemia, central nervous system tumours and other malignancies.

RESULTS

Apart from previously reported raised risks, no new significantly increased risks for cancer overall or any diagnostic subgroup were found among children or teenagers and young adults living around either nuclear installation. Individuals born close to the installations from 1950 to 2006 were not shown to be at any increased risk of cancer during the period 1971 to date.

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis of recent data suggests that children, teenagers and young adults currently living close to Sellafield and Dounreay are not at an increased risk of developing cancer. Equally, there is no evidence of any increased cancer risk later in life among those resident in these areas at birth.

Incidence of childhood brain and other non-haematopoietic neoplasms near nuclear sites in Scotland, 1975-94

OBJECTIVES

To examine the risk of cancers other than leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in children resident in the vicinity of nuclear sites in Scotland.

METHODS

The study dataset comprised registrations of cancer other than leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma diagnosed in children aged under 15 in the period 1975-94. These were validated for completeness and accuracy and analysed in two groups: (a) tumours of the central nervous system and (b) other malignant tumours (excluding leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma). Around each nuclear site observed cases (O) were enumerated and expected numbers (E) calculated with adjustment for age, sex, deprivation, and an urban-rural category. Stone's maximum likelihood ratio test (MLR) was used to determine whether there was any evidence of increased risk of these neoplasms among children living within 25 km of one of the nuclear sites investigated. The significance level of each MLR statistic was estimated by simulation.

RESULTS

More tumours of the central nervous system were observed than expected within 25 km of Dounreay (O/E = 1.14), Hunterston (1.14), and Rosyth (1.22). These results were based on 2, 26, and 136 observed cases, respectively. The unconditional MLR was significant only for Rosyth (p = 0.006). The conditional application of the MLR test for Rosyth was not significant (p = 0.771). For the group of other malignant neoplasms, the unconditional MLR test was not significant for any of the seven sites.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no evidence for generally increased risk of either tumours of the central nervous system or other malignant tumours in children living near nuclear sites. The significant excess of tumours of the central nervous system around Rosyth is likely to be due to the high incidence of these tumours in east central Scotland. Further investigations in this area are warranted.

Incidence of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in the vicinity of nuclear sites in Scotland, 1968-93

OBJECTIVES

The primary aims were to investigate the incidence of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in children resident near seven nuclear sites in Scotland and to determine whether there was any evidence of a gradient in risk with distance of residence from a nuclear site. A secondary aim was to assess the power of statistical tests for increased risk of disease near a point source when applied in the context of census data for Scotland.

METHODS

The study data set comprised 1287 cases of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma diagnosed in children aged under 15 years in the period 1968-93, validated for accuracy and completeness. A study zone around each nuclear site was constructed from enumeration districts within 25 km. Expected numbers were calculated, adjusting for sex, age, and indices of deprivation and urban-rural residence. Six statistical tests were evaluated. Stone's maximum likelihood ratio (unconditional application) was applied as the main test for general increased incidence across a study zone. The linear risk score based on enumeration districts (conditional application) was used as a secondary test for declining risk with distance from each site.

RESULTS

More cases were observed (O) than expected (E) in the study zones around Rosyth naval base (O/E 1.02), Chapelcross electricity generating station (O/E 1.08), and Dounreay reprocessing plant (O/E 1.99). The maximum likelihood ratio test reached significance only for Dounreay (P = 0.030). The linear risk score test did not indicate a trend in risk with distance from any of the seven sites, including Dounreay.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no evidence of a generally increased risk of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma around nuclear sites in Scotland, nor any evidence of a trend of decreasing risk with distance from any of the sites. There was a significant excess risk in the zone around Dounreay, which was only partially accounted for by the sociodemographic characteristics of the area. The statistical power of tests for localised increased risk of disease around a point source should be assessed in each new setting in which they are applied.

Childhood cancer in Britain: the National Registry of Childhood Tumours and incidence rates 1978-1987

The National Registry of Childhood Tumours contains population-based data on childhood cancers diagnosed throughout Great Britain from 1962 onwards. This paper describes the methodology of the Registry, presents incidence rates for 1978-1987 and describes other uses of the data. Total age-standardised annual incidence was 118.3 per million. The most frequent diagnostic groups were leukaemias (age-standardised rate 39.8), brain and spinal tumours (27.0), lymphomas (11.1), sympathetic nervous system tumours (8.3), kidney tumours (7.7) and soft-tissue sarcomas (7.5). Incidence rates were similar to those reported from other Western industrialised countries. The data are also used for a wide range of epidemiological and other studies. These include analyses of geographical variations in incidence, trends in survival, health of long-term survivors and their offspring and the genetics of childhood cancer. Information is frequently provided for clinicians and research workers, and series of specific types of cancer are compiled for further study. The Registry depends for the completeness and accuracy of its data on a wide range of organisations and individuals, and it is essential that this cooperation continues if the Registry is to be maintained.

Leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: incidence in children and young adults resident in the Dounreay area of Caithness, Scotland in 1968-91

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To review the incidence of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in children and young adults in the area less than 25 km from the Dounreay nuclear installation and the remainder of the Kirkwall postcode area in the full time period for which data are now available (1968-91), and to determine whether the excess incidence reported in the period up to 1984 has continued in subsequent years.

DESIGN

Geographical incidence study.

SETTING

The Kirkwall postcode area of Scotland.

SUBJECTS

Children and young adults resident in the area in the period 1968-91.

MAIN RESULTS

Observed numbers of cases of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and observed to expected ratios with expected numbers based on Scottish national rates were determined. In 1968-91, 12 cases were observed compared with 5.2 expected in the zone < 25 km from the Dounreay plant (p = 0.007). In the latest period, 1985-91, which has not previously been examined, four cases were observed compared with 1.4 expected (p = 0.059).

CONCLUSION

The observation of an excess of borderline statistical significance in 1985-91 following the substantial excess incidence which occurred in the early 1980s suggests that the incidence of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in this area should continue to be a matter of concern. The phenomenon of high incidences of childhood and young adult leukaemia and lymphoma near some nuclear installations in isolated areas is yet to be explained, but certain aspects of the data examined in the present report are consistent with the hypothesis of an infectious aetiology for leukaemia in very young children.

Rural population mixing and childhood leukaemia: effects of the North Sea oil industry in Scotland, including the area near Dounreay nuclear site

OBJECTIVE

To determine if any excess of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma was associated with certain striking examples of population mixing in rural Scotland produced by the North Sea oil industry.

DESIGN

Details were traced for over 30,000 workers involved in the construction of the large oil terminals in the Shetland and Orkney islands in northern Scotland or employed offshore. Home addresses of the 17,160 Scottish residents were postcoded, integrated with census data, and then classified as urban or rural. Rural postcode sectors, ranked by proportion of oil workers, were grouped into three categories with similar numbers of children but contrasting densities of oil workers. The incidence of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma was examined in these rural (and also in urban) categories in the periods 1974-8, 1979-83 and 1984-8.

SETTING

Scotland.

SUBJECTS

Young people below age 25.

RESULTS

A significant excess of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma was found in 1979-83 in the group of rural home areas with the largest proportion of oil workers, following closely on large increases in the workforce. The area near the Dounreay nuclear installation, where an excess of leukaemia is already well known, was within the rural high oil category.

CONCLUSION

The findings support the infection hypothesis that population mixing can increase the incidence of childhood leukaemia in rural areas. They also suggest that the recent excess in the Dounreay-Thurso area is due to population mixing linked to the oil industry, promoted by certain unusual local demographic factors.

Childhood leukemia in the vicinity of Canadian nuclear facilities

An ecologic study was conducted to determine whether leukemia rates among children born to mothers residing in the vicinity of Ontario (Canada) nuclear facilities differed from the provincial average. Childhood leukemia mortality and incidence ratios for the period 1950 to 1987 were examined for five regions within 25 km of a nuclear facility. The nuclear facilities included a research development facility, a uranium refinery, a uranium mining and milling facility, and two nuclear-power generating stations. Overall, the observed number of leukemia deaths (O = 54) was slightly greater than expected (E = 46.1) during the period when the facilities operated, but the difference was not statistically significant (O/E = 1.17, 95 percent confidence interval [CI] = 0.88-1.53). There was no indication of a birth cohort effect, as the mortality ratios based on place of birth were not significantly greater than the mortality ratios based on place of death. In the analyses of individual facilities, CIs included the null value and were generally wide because of the small observed and expected numbers; however, in the vicinity of the nuclear generating stations, the observed relative excess of leukemia deaths (O = 36, O/E = 1.40) had a lower confidence limit that was close to the null value.