How England's emergency departments are being penalised

Substituting emergency services: primary care vs. hospital care

Overcrowding in emergency departments (EDs) is inefficient, especially if it is caused by inappropriate visits for which primary care physicians could be equally effective as a hospital ED. Our paper investigates the extent to which both ambulatory ED visits and inpatient ED admissions are substitutes for primary care emergency services (PCES) in Germany. We use extensive longitudinal data and fixed effects models. Moreover, we add interaction terms to investigate the influence of various determinants on the strength of the substitution. Our results show significant substitution between PCES and ambulatory ED visits. Regarding the determinants, we find the largest substitution for younger patients. The more accessible the hospital ED is, the significantly larger the substitution. Moreover, substitution is larger among better-educated patients. For inpatient ED admission, we find significant substitution that is eight times smaller than the substitution for ambulatory ED visits. With regard to the determinants, we find the strongest substitution for non-urgent, short-stay admission and elderly patients. Countries with no gate-keeping system (such as Germany) have difficulties redirecting the patients streaming to EDs. Our estimated elasticities can help policy makers to resolve this issue, as our findings indicate where incentivizing the utilization of PCES is particularly effective.

Classification of hospital admissions into emergency and elective care: a machine learning approach

Rising admissions from emergency departments (EDs) to hospitals are a primary concern for many healthcare systems. The issue of how to differentiate urgent admissions from non-urgent or even elective admissions is crucial. We aim to develop a model for classifying inpatient admissions based on a patient's primary diagnosis as either emergency care or elective care and predicting urgency as a numerical value. We use supervised machine learning techniques and train the model with physician-expert judgments. Our model is accurate (96%) and has a high area under the ROC curve (>.99). We provide the first comprehensive classification and urgency categorization for inpatient emergency and elective care. This model assigns urgency values to every relevant diagnosis in the ICD catalog, and these values are easily applicable to existing hospital data. Our findings may provide a basis for policy makers to create incentives for hospitals to reduce the number of inappropriate ED admissions.

Contribution of recurrent admissions in children and young people to emergency hospital admissions: retrospective cohort analysis of hospital episode statistics

OBJECTIVE

To examine the contribution of recurrent admissions to the high rate of emergency admissions among children and young people (CYP) in England, and to what extent readmissions are accounted for by patients with chronic conditions.

DESIGN

All hospital admissions to the National Health Service (NHS) in England using hospital episode statistics (HES) from 2009 to 2011 for CYP aged 0-24 years. We followed CYP for 2 years from discharge of their first emergency admission in 2009. We determined the number of subsequent emergency admissions, time to next admission, length of stay and the proportion of injury and chronic condition admissions measured by diagnostic codes in all following admissions.

RESULTS

869 895 children had an index emergency admission in 2009, resulting in a further 939 710 admissions (of which 600 322, or 64%, were emergency admissions) over the next 2 years. After discharge from the index admission, 32% of 274,986 (32%) children were readmitted within 2 years, 26% of these readmissions occurring within 30 days of discharge. Recurrent emergency admission accounted for 41% of all emergency admissions in the 2-year cohort and 66% of inpatient days. 41% of index admissions, but 76% of the recurrent emergency admissions, were in children with a chronic condition.

CONCLUSIONS

Recurrent admissions contribute substantially to total emergency admissions. They often occur soon after discharge, and disproportionately affect CYP with chronic conditions. Policies aiming to discourage readmissions should consider whether they could undermine necessary inpatient care for children with chronic conditions.