Death and readmissions after hospital discharge during the December holiday period: cohort study

Effect of national holidays on health outcomes of patients receiving peritoneal dialysis in a single center over a ten-year period

BACKGROUND

National holidays are associated with high mortality in some diseases, but little is known about patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD). The research aimed to investigate the impact of national holidays on the health outcomes of PD patients.

METHODS

Over ten years, all episodes of unplanned hospitalization, death, and peritonitis in PD patients were collected in our center. Seven national holidays in China were chosen, and non-holiday days were selected as the control period. The effect of national holidays was observed by comparing the hospitalization, death, and peritonitis rates between holiday and non-holiday groups.

RESULTS

There were 297 events in all holiday periods and 1247 in non-holiday periods. There is no significant difference in hospitalization rate between holiday and non-holiday groups (32.4% ± 6.4% vs. 29.2% ± 3.4%, p = 0.175). So is the death rate [6.3% (4.8-12.3%) vs.5.0% (4.2-8.9%), p = 0.324] and peritonitis rate [0.19 (0.13-0.53) vs. 0.22 (0.18-0.27), p = 0.445] between the two groups. Significant differences were observed in the distribution of peritonitis causes between the two groups (p = 0.017). The rate of secondary to other infections in the holiday group was significantly higher than in the non-holiday group (25.0 vs. 10.3%, p = 0.015).

CONCLUSION

Our study suggested no national holiday effect on health outcomes of PD patients based on ten-year data in our center.

The Christmas adverse event syndrome: An analysis of the WHO pharmacovigilance database

OBJECTIVES

We hypothesized that during the Christmas season the safety profile and the toxicity of some drugs may be exacerbated. We therefore assessed and characterized changes in drug safety profiles over the Christmas period.

DESIGN

We performed a retrospective longitudinal analysis of adverse events reported in the World Health Organization (WHO) pharmacovigilance database between April 1st 2017 to March 31th 2023.

SETTING

We extracted cases reported by the 5 main contributors' countries of the WHO pharmacovigilance database with a Christmas tradition: USA, France, Germany, Italy and UK.

PARTICIPANTS

We analyzed 4,999,459 individual case safety reports from USA (n=3,498,961), France (n=419,018), Germany (n=398,763), Italy (n=251,641) and UK (n=431,076), reported between April 1st 2017 to March 31th 2023.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Monthly reports of adverse events were analyzed. Time trend, seasonal effect a Christmas effect (December-January) were explored.

RESULTS

We found 91 adverse events significantly more frequently reported during the Christmas period, independently after controlling for winter effect and general tendency. The main type of adverse events were psychiatric disorders, infections and skin and subcutaneous disorders. The highest numbers of attributable cases to Christmas were found for drug dependence, emotional distress, and drug withdrawal syndrome. The most involved drugs were oxycodone in psychiatric disorders (n=47,527), docetaxel in skin disorders (n=9440) and social circumstances (n=1940), olmesartan in gastrointestinal disorders (n=1263), fentanyl in cardiac disorders (n=929), adalimumab in infections (n=11,316) and immune system disorders (n=3781), and collagenase clostridium histolyticum in reproductive system disorders (n=318).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that a range of drugs adverse events are more frequently reported at Christmas compared to other periods of the year, notably psychiatric disorders, infections, and skin disorders.

Potential Association of Holidays on Internationalized Normalized Ratio in Warfarin-Users at a Multidisciplinary Clinic

Background

Warfarin is approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration for numerous clinical indications. The effectiveness of warfarin is highly dependent on the time-in-therapeutic range based on the international normalized ratio (INR) goal, which may be altered by changes in diet, alcohol intake, concomitant drugs, and travel, all of which are prevalent during the holidays. At this time, there are no published studies assessing the impact of holidays on INR in warfarin-users.

Methods

A retrospective chart review was conducted on all adult patients taking warfarin and managed at a multidisciplinary clinic. Patients were included if they were taking warfarin at home regardless of indication for anticoagulation. The INR pre- and post-holiday was assessed.

Results

Of a total of 92 patients, the mean age was 71.5 ± 14.3 years, and most patients were on warfarin with an INR goal of 2 - 3 (89%). There were significant differences in INR before and after Independence Day (2.55 vs. 2.81, P = 0.043) and Columbus Day (2.39 vs. 2.82, P < 0.001). The remaining holidays showed no significant differences in INR before and after each respective holiday.

Conclusions

There may be factors related to Independence and Columbus Day that are increasing the level of anticoagulation in warfarin-users. Although the mean post-holiday INR values, in essence, maintained within the typical target of 2 - 3, our study underscores the specialized care that is warranted in higher risk patients to prevent a continued increase in INR and subsequent toxicities. We hope our results would be hypothesis-generating and aid in the development of larger, prospective evaluations to validate the findings of our present study.

Impact of the state of emergency on trends in the care of three major diseases at Showa University Hospital, Japan: a retrospective and descriptive study

Introduction

This study aimed to examine the trends in patient consultations for three major diseases (cancer, heart disease, and stroke) at Showa University Hospital, Japan during the state of emergency for the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Methods

The present study was a retrospective and descriptive study of Showa University Hospital in Tokyo, Japan. Subjects were patients who had received medical treatment at Showa University Hospital and were diagnosed from 2017 to 2020. To examine the impact of the state of emergency, the number visits to hospital by the top three causes of death or other diseases were summarised from 21 weeks of data, from week 8 to week 28, for each year.

Results

Compared to the average of the previous 3 years, a comparison of the three periods before and after the state of emergency showed a V-shaped curve in 2020, with a large drop in the number of cancer patients during the state of emergency, both from within Tokyo and from outside the city.

Conclusions

This study showed a long-term decrease in cancer patient visits to Showa University Hospital since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the previous 3 years. It is also possible that medical care that would have been available may not have been provided due to the state of emergency, so it is necessary to follow up patients while keeping a close eye on measures other than infectious diseases.

The Impact of Month on Joint Arthroplasty In-Hospital Outcomes: The December Effect

Background

The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of month of the year on postsurgical outcomes after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and to specifically analyze for a December effect.

Material and methods

The National Inpatient Sample was used to identify all patients older than 40 years undergoing primary TKA and THA between 2006 and 2015. Patients were stratified based on the month of the year of surgery. In-hospital complication, disposition, and economic outcomes were comparatively analyzed.

Results

There were statistically significant differences in outcomes based on month of the year. When comparing December to the other months, both TKA and THA patients had significantly lower rates of any complication, postoperative anemia, and genitourinary complications, while there were significantly higher rates of home than rehab discharge and shorter average length of stay in December. THA patients additionally had significantly lower rates of cardiac and respiratory complications during December.

Conclusion

Postoperative outcomes are significantly associated with the month in which arthroplasty is performed. This study provides evidence of a positive "December effect" of improved in-hospital complications and economic outcomes for surgeries performed in December. Future research should direct attention to the impact that social factors may have on outcomes after elective surgical procedures and how these factors may be translated to other months.

Holiday ratio of hospitalization and 30-day readmission rates among cancer patients after major surgery

Background

To determine the association of 30‐day readmission with weekend discharge and the number of holiday days during a hospital stay (holiday ratio).

Methods

This retrospective cohort study used the clinical research database and cancer registry data of our hospital from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2017. Patient characteristics, tumor factors, clinical laboratory data, and proxies of continuity of care, such as weekend discharge or holiday ratio (holiday days/total hospitalization days), received statistical analysis. Multivariate logistic regression identified the independent factors for 30‐day potentially avoidable readmission rate (PAR).

Results

Of 1433 patients receiving tumor resection, 520 (36.29%) had colon cancer; 440 (30.70%) had head and neck cancer (HNC), and 473 (33.01%) had other cancers (lung, liver, and prostate). The rate of 30‐day PAR was 6.3% for those with colon cancer, 8.6% for HNC, and 3.6% for other cancers. The 30‐day PAR did not significantly differ by discharge on a weekend versus weekday for those with colon cancer (8.33% vs. 5.90%; p = 0.379), HNC (7.06% vs. 9.01%; p = 0.566), or other cancers (0.00% vs. 4.28%; p = 0.960). Colon cancer patients with holiday ratio >0.3 had a higher readmission rate (9.58% vs. 4.82%, p = 0.041). In multivariate analysis, a holiday ratio >0.3 (adjusted odds ratio 2.16; 95% Confidence Interval, 1.05–4.39) in those with colon cancer was an independent predictor of 30‐day PAR.

Conclusions

Weekend discharge after major surgery did not affect 30‐day readmission rates in cancer patients, but the holiday ratio did affect 30‐day PAR for those with colon cancer.

Weather Trumps Festivity? More Cardiovascular Disease Events Occur in Winter than in December Holidays in Queensland, Australia

Objective: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of hospitalisations and deaths in Australia. This study estimates the excess CVD hospitalisations and deaths across seasons and during the December holidays in Queensland, Australia. Methods: The study uses retrospective, longitudinal, population-based cohort data from Queensland, Australia from January 2010 to December 2015. The outcomes were hospitalisations and deaths categorised as CVD-related. CVD events were grouped according to when they occurred in the calendar year. Excess hospitalisations and deaths were estimated using the multivariate ordinary least squares method after adjusting for confounding effects. Results: More CVD hospitalisations and deaths occurred in winter than in summer, with 7811 (CI: 1353, 14,270; p < 0.01) excess hospitalisations and 774 (CI: 35, 1513; p < 0.01) deaths compared to summer. During the coldest month (July), there was an excess of 42 hospitalisations and 7 deaths per 1000 patients. Fewer CVD hospitalisations (-20 (CI: -29, -9; p < 0.01)) occurred during the December holidays than any other period during the calendar year. Non-CVD events were mostly not statistically significant different between periods. Conclusion: Most CVD events in Queensland occurred in winter rather than during the December holidays. Potentially cost-effective initiatives should be explored such as encouraging patients with CVD conditions to wear warmer clothes during cold temperatures and/or insulating the homes of CVD patients who cannot otherwise afford to.

Christmas, acute ischemic stroke and stroke-related mortality in Hungary

OBJECTIVES

Risk factors for stroke include psychological effects, such as depression. Festive occasions (such as Christmas in Hungary) may carry a significant emotional impact and may therefore contribute to increased cardiovascular risk. Thrombolytic treatment of acute ischemic stroke has a narrow time window and allows for the precise assessment of stroke incidence.

MATERIALS & METHODS

We analyzed anonymized national data of the number of thrombolytic treatments for acute ischemic stroke and the number of stroke-related deaths between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2016 in Hungary within 2-day, 5-day, and 1-month periods preceding and following 24 December each year. Analysis of subgroups based on age (below and over 65 years) and sex was also performed.

RESULTS

The number of thrombolytic treatments was higher in all three periods preceding Christmas compared to the corresponding period that follows the feast. This increase was particularly prominent in men below 65 years of age. While overall stroke-associated mortality was increased 1 month after Christmas, the death rate was higher a month before rather than after Christmas in men below 65 years of age and in women both below and over 65 years of age 5 days before Christmas.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings may predominantly relate to emotional and psychological factors. In case of women, the anxiety secondary to festive preparations, while in men below 65 years, the increased psychological stress of providing financial security for the celebration may play an important role.

Excess mortality at Christmas due to cardiovascular disease in the HUNT study prospective population-based cohort in Norway

Background

Although it is known that winter inclusive of the Christmas holiday period is associated with an increased risk of dying compared to other times of the year, very few studies have specifically examined this phenomenon within a population cohort subject to baseline profiling and prospective follow-up. In such a cohort, we sought to determine the specific characteristics of mortality occuring during the Christmas holidays.

Methods

Baseline profiling and outcome data were derived from a prospective population-based cohort with longitudinal follow-up in Central Norway - the Trøndelag Health (HUNT) Study. From 1984 to 1986, 88% of the target population comprising 39,273 men and 40,353 women aged 48 ± 18 and 50 ± 18 years, respectively, were profiled. We examined the long-term pattern of mortality to determine the number of excess (all-cause and cause-specific) deaths that occurred during winter overall and, more specifically, the Christmas holidays.

Results

During 33.5 (IQR 17.1–34.4) years follow-up, 19,879 (50.7%) men and 19,316 (49.3%) women died at age-adjusted rate of 5.3 and 4.6 deaths per 1000/annum, respectively. Overall, 1540 (95% CI 43–45 deaths/season) more all-cause deaths occurred in winter (December to February) versus summer (June to August), with 735 (95% CI 20–22 deaths per season) of these cardiovascular-related. December 25th–27th was the deadliest 3-day period of the year; being associated with 138 (95% CI 96–147) and 102 (95% CI 72–132) excess all-cause and cardiovascular-related deaths, respectively. Accordingly, compared to 1st–21st December (equivalent winter conditions), the incidence rate ratio of all-cause mortality increased to 1.22 (95% CI 1.16–1.27) and 1.17 (95% 1.11–1.22) in men and women, respectively, during the next 21 days (Christmas/New Year holidays). All observed differences were highly significant (P < 0.001). A less pronounced pattern of mortality due to respiratory illnesses (but not cancer) was also observed.

Conclusion

Beyond a broader pattern of seasonally-linked mortality characterised by excess winter deaths, the deadliest time of year in Central Norway coincides with the Christmas holidays. During this time, the pattern and frequency of cardiovascular-related mortality changes markedly; contrasting with a more stable pattern of cancer-related mortality. Pending confirmation in other populations and climates, further research to determine if these excess deaths are preventable is warranted.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10503-7.

Associations of 4 Nurse Staffing Practices With Hospital Mortality

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Background:

Cross-sectional studies of hospital-level administrative data have suggested that 4 nurse staffing practices—using adequate staffing levels, higher proportions of registered nurses (RNs) (skill mix), and more educated and experienced RNs—are each associated with reduced hospital mortality. To increase the validity of this evidence, patient-level longitudinal studies assessing the simultaneous associations of these staffing practices with mortality are required.

Methods:

A dynamic cohort of 146,349 adult medical, surgical, and intensive care patients admitted to a Canadian University Health Center was followed for 7 years (2010–2017). We used a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the associations between patients’ time-varying cumulative exposure to measures of RN understaffing, skill mix, education, and experience, each relative to nursing unit and shift means, and the hazard of in-hospital mortality, while adjusting for patient and nursing unit characteristics, and modeling the current nursing unit of hospitalization as a random effect.

Results:

Overall, 4854 in-hospital deaths occurred during 3,478,603 patient-shifts of follow-up (13.95 deaths/10,000 patient-shifts). In multivariable analyses, every 5% increase in the cumulative proportion of understaffed shifts was associated with a 1.0% increase in mortality (hazard ratio: 1.010; 95% confidence interval: 1.002–1.017; P=0.009). Moreover, every 5% increase in the cumulative proportion of worked hours by baccalaureate-prepared RNs was associated with a 2.0% reduction of mortality (hazard ratio: 0.980; 95% confidence interval: 0.965–0.995, P=0.008). RN experience and skill mix were not significantly associated with mortality.

Conclusion:

Reducing the frequency of understaffed shifts and increasing the proportion of baccalaureate-prepared RNs are associated with reduced hospital mortality.

Clinical complexity and hospital admissions in the December holiday period

Background

Christmas and New Year’s holidays are risk factors for hospitalization, but the causes of this “holiday effect” are uncertain. In particular, clinical complexity (CC) has never been assessed in this setting. We therefore sought to determine whether patients admitted to the hospital during the December holiday period had greater CC compared to those admitted during a contiguous non-holiday period.

Methods

This is a prospective, longitudinal study conducted in an academic ward of internal medicine in 2017–2019. Overall, 227 consecutive adult patients were enrolled, including 106 cases (mean age 79.4±12.8 years, 55 females; 15 December-15 January) and 121 controls (mean age 74.3±16.6 years, 56 females; 16 January-16 February). Demographic characteristics, CC, length of stay, and early mortality rate were assessed. Logistic regression analyses for the evaluation of independent correlates of being a holiday case were computed.

Results

Cases displayed greater CC (17.7±5.5 vs 15.2±5.9; p = 0.001), with greater impact of socioeconomic (3.51±1.7 vs 2.9±1.7; p = 0.012) and behavioral (2.36±1.6 vs 1.9±1.8; p = 0.01) CC components. Cases were also significantly frailer according to the Edmonton Frail Scale (8.0±2.8 vs 6.4±3.1; p<0.001), whilst having similar disease burden, as measured by the CIRS comorbidity index. Age (OR 1.02; p = 0.039), low income (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.10–3.55; p = 0.023), and total CC (OR 1.06; p = 0.014) independently correlated with the cases. Also, cases showed a longer length of stay (median 15.5 vs 11 days; p = 0.0016) and higher in-hospital (12 vs 4 events; p = 0.021) and 30-day (14 vs 6 events; p = 0.035) mortality.

Conclusions

Patients hospitalized during the December holiday period had worse health outcomes, and this could be attributable to the grater CC, especially related to socioeconomic (social deprivation, low income) and behavioral factors (inappropriate diet). The evaluation of all CC components could potentially represent a useful tool for a more rational resource allocation over this time of the year.

Both New and Chronic Potentially Inappropriate Medications Continued at Hospital Discharge Are Associated With Increased Risk of Adverse Events

BACKGROUND

Admission to hospital provides the opportunity to review patient medications; however, the extent to which the safety of drug regimens changes after hospitalization is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the number of potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) prescribed to patients at hospital discharge and their association with the risk of adverse events 30 days after discharge.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Tertiary care hospitals within the McGill University Health Centre Network in Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients from internal medicine, cardiac, and thoracic surgery, aged 65 years and older, admitted between October 2014 and November 2016.

MEASURES

Abstracted chart data were linked to provincial health databases. PIMs were identified using AGS (American Geriatrics Society) Beers Criteria®, STOPP, and Choosing Wisely statements. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox models were used to assess the association between PIMs and adverse events.

RESULTS

Of 2,402 included patients, 1,381 (57%) were male; median age was 76 years (interquartile range [IQR] = 70‐82 years); and eight discharge medications were prescribed (IQR = 2‐8). A total of 1,576 (66%) patients were prescribed at least one PIM at discharge; 1,176 (49%) continued a PIM from prior to admission, and 755 (31%) were prescribed at least one new PIM. In the 30 days after discharge, 218 (9%) experienced an adverse drug event (ADE) and 862 (36%) visited the emergency department (ED), were rehospitalized, or died. After adjustment, each additional new PIM and continued community PIM were respectively associated with a 21% (odds ratio [OR] = 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01‐1.45) and a 10% (OR = 1.10; 95% CI = 1.01‐1.21) increased odds of ADEs. They were also respectively associated with a 13% (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.03‐1.26) and a 5% (HR = 1.05; 95% CI = 1.00‐1.10) increased risk of ED visits, rehospitalization, and death.

CONCLUSIONS

Two in three hospitalized patients were prescribed a PIM at discharge, and increasing numbers of PIMs were associated with an increased risk of ADEs and all‐cause adverse events. Improving hospital prescribing practices may reduce the frequency of PIMs and associated adverse events. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:1184–1192, 2020.

See related editorial by Donna M. Fick in this issue.

Trends in Mortality for Medicare Beneficiaries Treated in the Emergency Department From 2009 to 2016

IMPORTANCE

Emergency department (ED) visits are common and increasing. Whether outcomes associated with care in the ED are improving over time is largely unknown to date.

OBJECTIVE

To examine trends in 30-day mortality rates associated with ED care among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study used a random 5% sample in 2009 and 2010 and a 20% sample from 2011 to 2016, for a total of 15 416 385 ED visits from 2009 to 2016 among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older.

EXPOSURES

Time (year) as a continuous variable.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was 30-day mortality, overall and stratified by illness severity and hospital characteristics. Secondary outcomes included mortality rates on the day of the ED visit (day 0) as well as at 7 and 14 days. Changes in disposition from the ED (admission, observation, transfer, died in the ED, and discharged) over time were also examined.

RESULTS

The sample included 15 416 385 ED visits (60.8% women and 39.2% men; mean [SD] age, 78.6 [8.5] years) at 4828 acute care hospitals. The percentage of patients discharged from the ED increased from 53.6% in 2009 to 56.7% in 2016. Unadjusted 30-day mortality declined from 5.1% in 2009 to 4.6% in 2016 (-0.068% per year; 95% CI, -0.074% to -0.063% per year; P < .001). After adjusting for hospital random effects, patient demographics, and chronic conditions, the adjusted 30-day mortality trend was -0.198% per year (95% CI, -0.204% to -0.193% per year; P < .001). The magnitude of this trend was greatest for patients with a high severity of illness (-0.662%; 95% CI, -0.681% to -0.644%; P < .001), followed by those with a medium severity of illness (-0.103% per year; 95% CI, -0.108% to -0.097% per year; P < .001) and those with a low severity of illness (-0.009% per year; 95% CI, -0.006% to -0.011% per year; P < .001). Declines in mortality were seen in each category of ED disposition, including visits resulting in admission (-0.356% per year; 95% CI, -0.368% to -0.343% per year; P < .001) as well as those resulting in discharge (-0.059% per year; 95% CI, -0.064% to -0.055% per year; P < .001). The decline was greater for major teaching hospitals (compared with nonteaching hospitals), nonprofit hospitals (compared with for-profit hospitals), and urban hospitals (compared with rural hospitals).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among Medicare beneficiaries receiving ED care in the United States, mortality within 30 days of an ED visit appears to have declined in recent years, particularly for patients with the highest severity of illness, even as fewer patients are being admitted from an ED visit. This study's findings suggest that further study is needed to understand the reasons for this decline and why certain types of hospitals are seeing greater improvements in outcomes.