Long-term changes in carbohydrate tolerance, insulin secretion and action in African-American patients with obesity and history of hyperglycemic crises

A mathematical model for ketosis-prone diabetes suggests the existence of multiple pancreatic β-cell inactivation mechanisms

Ketosis-prone diabetes mellitus (KPD) is a subtype of type 2 diabetes, which presents much like type 1 diabetes, with dramatic hyperglycemia and ketoacidosis. Although KPD patients are initially insulin-dependent, after a few months of insulin treatment, ~ 70% undergo near-normoglycemia remission and can maintain blood glucose without insulin, as in early type 2 diabetes or prediabetes. Here, we propose that these phenomena can be explained by the existence of a fast, reversible glucotoxicity process, which may exist in all people but be more pronounced in those susceptible to KPD. We develop a simple mathematical model of the pathogenesis of KPD, which incorporates this assumption, and show that it reproduces the phenomenology of KPD, including variations in the ability for patients to achieve and sustain remission. These results suggest that a variation of our model may be able to quantitatively describe variations in the course of remission among individuals with KPD.

1-h Glucose During Oral Glucose Tolerance Test Predicts Hyperglycemia Relapse-Free Survival in Obese Black Patients With Hyperglycemic Crises

OBJECTIVE

Approximately 50% of obese Black patients with unprovoked diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) or severe hyperglycemia (SH) at new-onset diabetes achieve near-normoglycemia remission with intensive insulin treatment. Despite the initial near-normoglycemia remission, most DKA/SH individuals develop hyperglycemia relapse after insulin discontinuation. Traditional biomarkers such as normal glucose tolerance at the time of remission were not predictive of hyperglycemia relapse. We tested whether 1-h plasma glucose (1-h PG) at remission predicts hyperglycemia relapse in Black patients with DKA/SH.

METHODS

Secondary analysis was performed of two prospective randomized controlled trials in 73 patients with DKA/SH at the safety net hospital with a median follow-up of 408 days. Patients with DKA/SH underwent a 5-point, 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance test after hyperglycemia remission. Hyperglycemia relapse is defined by fasting blood glucose (FBG) > 130 mg/dl, random blood glucose (BG) >180 mg/dl, or HbA1c > 7%.

RESULTS

During the median 408 (interquartile range: 110-602) days of follow-up, hyperglycemia relapse occurred in 28 (38.4%) participants. One-hour PG value ≥199 mg/dl discriminates hyperglycemia relapse (sensitivity: 64%; specificity: 71%). Elevated levels of 1-h PG (≥199 mg/dl) were independently associated with hyperglycemia relapse (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.40 [95% CI: 1.04, 5.56]). In a multivariable model with FBG, adding 1-h PG level enhanced the prediction of hyperglycemia relapse, with significant improvements in C-index (Δ: +0.05; p = 0.04), net reclassification improvement (NRI: 48.7%; p = 0.04), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI: 7.8%; p = 0.02) as compared with the addition of 2-h PG (NRI: 20.2%; p = 0.42; IDI: 1.32%; p = 0.41) or HbA1c (NRI: 35.2%; p = 0.143; IDI: 5.8%; p = 0.04).

CONCLUSION

One-hour PG at the time of remission is a better predictor of hyperglycemia relapse than traditional glycemic markers among obese Black patients presenting with DKA/SH. Testing 1-h PG at insulin discontinuation identifies individuals at high risk of developing hyperglycemia relapse.