Predictors of attrition from care at 2 years in a prospective cohort of HIV-infected adults in Tigray, Ethiopia

Predictors of loss to follow up among adults on antiretroviral therapy before and after the start of treat-all strategy in public health facilities of Hawassa city, Ethiopia: A Competing risk regression

BACKGROUND

Treat-all strategies improved patient outcomes, despite higher rates of loss to follow-up compared to the pre-treat era. Patients in Ethiopia experienced a higher rate of LTFU during the treat-all strategy period; however, studies did not identify contributing factors in comparison with previous strategies. This study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up before and after the start of the treat-all strategy among adults on anti-retroviral therapy in public health facilities in Hawassa City, Ethiopia.

METHODS

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 1190 randomly selected adults on antiretroviral therapy in public health facilities in Hawassa City. Using the Open Data Kit (ODK), data were collected from medical records and exported to Stata version 16 and R 4.2.1 for analysis. A Grays test and cumulative incidence curve were used to compare the cumulative incidence function of loss to follow-up. Bivariable and multivariable competing risk regression were fitted to identify predictors of LTFU and variables with a p-value <0.05 were considered significant.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of lost-to-follow-up was 4.92(3.84,6.3) and 8.67(7.26,10.3) per 100 person-years (PY) in pre-treat all and treat all cohorts, respectively. The cumulative incidence of mortality was 5.86(4.67,7.35) and 3(2.26,4.12) per 100 PY in pre-treat and treat all cohorts, respectively. Fair/poor adherence (aSHR:5.17; (95% CI 1.97, 13.51), underweight (aSHR:2.13; 95% CI: 1.15-3.93) and WHO stage III/IV (aSHR:2.69; 95% CI: 1.27, 5.71) were predictors of loss up in pre-treat all, whereas fair/poor adherence (aSHR = 2.07; 95% CI: 1.18, 3.68), underweight (aSHR:1.71; 95% CI: 1.13, 2.56), and CD4 cell >350 cell/m3 (aSHR: 1.67; 95% CI: 1.05, 2.65) predicts of loss up in treat all cohorts.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated that the incidence of loss to follow-up was considerably higher in the treat-all period as compared to the pre-treat-all era. Poor medication compliance, underweight, and a CD4 level >350 cells/m3 contributed to the higher rate of LTFU in the treat-all strategy. Targeted interventions, such as nutritional support and strengthening medication adherence counseling, should be implemented to maintain treatment retention and reduce antiretroviral therapy dropout rates.

Treatment outcomes 12 months after antiretroviral therapy initiation in Oman: a nationwide study from the Middle East

ABSTRACTWe used routinely collected programme data on people living with HIV in Oman who started ART in 2014-2018 to assess retention on ART, viral suppression, attrition (mortality or loss to follow-up [LTFU]) and treatment failure (attrition or HIV viral load of > 1000 copies/mL) 12 months after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. We identified 726 patients; 72% were male. Overall, 12 months retention on ART and viral suppression (intention-to-treat [ITT] analysis) were 85.7% and 74.5%, respectively. Attrition occurred in 14.3% (mortality of 7% and LTFU of 7.3%). Retention increased from 78.8% (93/118) to 90.6% (144/159) among patients who started ART in 2014 and 2018, respectively. Similarly, ITT and on-treatment analyses revealed that viral suppression 12 months after ART initiation increased from 57.6% (68/118) and 73.1% (68/93) among patients who initiated therapy in 2014-80.5% (128/159) and 88.8% (128/144) among patients started treatment in 2018, respectively. On multivariate analysis, older age, having "Other" as an HIV risk factor (compared to heterosexual) and receiving HIV care outside the capital Muscat independently predicted both attrition and treatment failure. Our findings have been useful in identifying factors at the individual and programme level that influenced the risk of attrition and treatment failure.

Attrition rate and its predictors among adults receiving anti-retroviral therapy following the implementation of the "Universal Test and Treat strategy" at public health institutions in Northern Ethiopia. A retrospective follow-up study

Introduction

Since 2016, the Ethiopian Federal Ministry of Health has adopted a "Universal Test and Treat" strategy to treat human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). In this test and treat era, access to anti-retroviral therapy (ART) has been rapidly expanded. On the other hand, poor retention of patients on ART remains a serious concern for reaching ART program goals. Thus, this study is targeted at investigating the attrition rate and its predictors among HIV-positive adults following the implementation of the "test and treat" strategy in Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 1048 HIV-positive adults receiving ART at public health institutions in Bahir Dar city, Northern Ethiopia. Data were extracted from randomly selected patient charts, entered into Epidata 4.6 and exported to Stata 14.2 for analysis. Kaplan-Meier curve was used to estimate individuals' attrition-free probability at each specific point in time. Both bivariable and multivariable cox regression models were fitted, and variables with a P-value of <0.05 in the multivariable model were considered as significant predictors of attrition.

Results

A total of 1020 (97.3%) study participants were included in the final analysis. The attrition rate of individuals was 15 per 100 person-years of observation (95% CI: 13.5-16.9 per 100 PYO). World Health organization (WHO) stage III/IV clinical diseases (Adjusted hazard ratio/AHR/1.75 (95% CI:1.24-2.48)), Not disclosing HIV-status (AHR 1.6 (95% CI: 1.24-2.05)), rapid initiation of ART (AHR 2.05 (95%CI:1.56-7.69)), No history of ART regime change (AHR2.03 (95% CI: 1.49-2.76)), "1J (TDF_3TC-DTG)" ART regimen (AHR 0.46 (95%CI: 2.18-3.65)), and Poor ART adherence (AHR2.82 (95%CI: 2.18-3.65)) were identified as significant predictors of attrition rate of HIV positive adults.

Conclusion

Following the implementation of the universal test and treat area, the attrition rate of adults living with (HIV) found to be high. Due attention shall be provided to those individuals who didn't disclose their status, were initiated into ART within seven days, had WHO stage III/IV clinical disease, had poor adherence history, had no regimen change, and are not on 1J (TDF_3TC-DTG) ART regimen type.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for lost to follow-up among adults on active antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study

Background

Over 420,000 people have initiated life-saving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Ethiopia; however, lost-to-follow-up (LTFU) rates continues to be high. A clinical decision tool is needed to identify patients at higher risk for LTFU to provide individualized risk prediction to intervention. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and validate a statistical risk prediction tool that predicts the probability of LTFU among adult clients on ART.

Methods

A retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 432 clients on ART in Gondar Town, northwest, Ethiopia. Prognostic determinates included in the analysis were determined by multivariable logistic regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and calibration plot were used to assess the model discriminative ability and predictive accuracy, respectively. Individual risk prediction for LTFU was determined using both regression formula and score chart rule. Youden index value was used to determine the cut-point for risk classification. The clinical utility of the model was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The incidence of LTFU was 11.19 (95% CI 8.95–13.99) per 100-persons years of observation. Potential prognostic determinants for LTFU were rural residence, not using prophylaxis (either cotrimoxazole or Isoniazid or both), patient on appointment spacing model (ASM), poor drug adherence level, normal Body mass index (BMI), and high viral load (viral copies > 1000 copies/ml). The AUROC was 85.9% (95% CI 82.0–89.6) for the prediction model and the risk score was 81.0% (95% CI 76.7–85.3) which was a good discrimination probability. The maximum sensitivity and specificity of the probability of LTFU using the prediction model were 72.07% and 83.49%, respectively. The calibration plot of the model was good (p-value = 0.350). The DCA indicated that the model provides a higher net benefit following patients based on the risk prediction tool.

Conclusion

The incidence of LTFU among clients on ART in Gondar town was high (> 3%). The risk prediction model presents an accurate and easily applicable prognostic prediction tool for clients on ART. A prospective follow-up study and external validation of the model is warranted before using the model.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07691-x.

Time to lost to follow-up and its predictors among adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy retrospective follow-up study Amhara Northwest Ethiopia

Antiretroviral therapy lowers viral load only when people living with HIV maintain their treatment retention. Lost to follow-up is the persistent major challenge to the success of ART program in low-resource settings including Ethiopia. The purpose of this study is to estimate time to lost to follow-up and its predictors in antiretroviral therapies amongst adult patients. Among registered HIV patients, 542 samples were included. Data cleaning and analysis were done using Stata/SE version 14 software. In multivariable Cox regression, a p-value < 0.05 at 95% confidence interval with corresponding adjusted hazards ratio (AHR) were statistically significant predictors. In this study, the median time to lost to follow-up is 77 months. The incidence density of lost to follow-up was 13.45 (95% CI: 11.78, 15.34) per 100 person-years. Antiretroviral therapy drug adherence [AHR: 3.04 (95% CI: 2.18, 4.24)], last functional status [AHR: 2.74 (95% CI: 2.04, 3.67)], and INH prophylaxis [AHR: 1.65 (95% CI: 1.07, 2.56) were significant predictors for time to lost to follow-up. The median time to lost was 77 months and incidence of lost to follow-up was high. Health care providers should be focused on HIV counseling and proper case management focused on identified risks.

Incidence and predictors of attrition among children on antiretroviral therapy at University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia, 2019: Retrospective follow-up study

Objectives:

Retaining on antiretroviral therapy is essential for reducing HIV-related morbidity and mortality. However, attrition in HIV-positive children remains a critical challenge in resource-limited settings, including Ethiopia. This study aims to determine the incidence and predictors of attrition among children on antiretroviral therapy at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia.

Methods:

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 357 HIV-positive children at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital from 1 January 2005 to 30 December 2018 (G.C.). Data were collected by chart review using a structured and pre-tested data abstraction checklist. SPSS 22 and STATA 14.0 were used for data entry and analysis, respectively. In the Cox proportional hazard model, bivariables had a 0.25 computed to multivariable, and variables with a p-value of 0.05 at a 95% confidence interval were considered statistically significant predictors of attrition incidence.

Results:

A total of 344 child records with a completeness rate of 96.4% were reviewed and included in the analysis. The median follow-up period was 4.3 (interquartile range = 4.3 ± 4.7) years, and the median survival time was 132 months. The incidence rate of attrition was 6.6 per 100 person year observation (PYO) (95% confidence interval = 5.5, 8.0). In all, 105 (30.5%) children were recorded as attrition in the follow-up period. Baseline WHO clinical staging 3 and 4 (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.3 (95% confidence interval = 1.3, 4.0)), baseline weight-for-age −2 Z-score (adjusted hazard ratio = 3.1 (95% confidence interval = 1.7, 5.3)), cotrimoxazole non-users (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.5 (95% confidence interval = 1.4, 4.3)), and baseline hemoglobin levels 10 mg/dL (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.7 (95% confidence interval = 1.5, 47)) were found to be a predictor of attrition.

Conclusion:

The overall incidence of the rate of attrition was high. Baseline WHO clinical staging 3/4, baseline hemoglobin 10 mg/dL, cotrimoxazole (cotrimoxazole preventive therapy) non-user, and underweight at baseline (weight-for-age 2 Z-score) were found to be the main predictors of attrition.

Retention in care and predictors of attrition among HIV-infected patients who started antiretroviral therapy in Kinshasa, DRC, before and after the implementation of the 'treat-all' strategy

The retention of patients in care is a key pillar of the continuum of HIV care. It has been suggested that the implementation of a "treat-all" strategy may favor attrition (death or lost to follow-up, as opposed to retention), specifically in the subgroup of asymptomatic people living with HIV (PLWH) with high CD4 counts. Attrition in HIV care could mitigate the success of universal antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. We performed a retrospective study of PLWH at least 15 years old initiating ART in 85 HIV care centers in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), between 2010 and 2019, with the objective of measuring attrition and to define factors associated with it. Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics recorded at ART initiation included sex, age, weight, height, WHO HIV stage, pregnancy, baseline CD4 cell count, start date of ART, and baseline and last ART regimen. Attrition was defined as death or loss to follow-up (LTFU). LTFU was defined as "not presenting to an HIV care center for at least 180 days after the date of a last missed visit, without a notification of death or transfer". Kaplan-Meier curves were used to present attrition data, and mixed effects Cox regression models determined factors associated with attrition. The results compared were before and after the implementation of the "treat-all" strategy. A total of 15,762 PLWH were included in the study. Overall, retention in HIV care was 83% at twelve months and 77% after two years of follow-up. The risk of attrition increased with advanced HIV disease and the size of the HIV care center. Time to ART initiation greater than seven days after diagnosis and Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis was associated with a reduced risk of attrition. The implementation of the "treat-all" strategy modified the clinical characteristics of PLWH toward higher CD4 cell counts and a greater proportion of patients at WHO stages I and II at treatment initiation. Initiation of ART after the implementation of the 'treat all" strategy was associated with higher attrition (p<0.0001) and higher LTFU (p<0.0001). Attrition has remained high in recent years. The implementation of the "treat-all" strategy was associated with higher attrition and LTFU in our study. Interventions to improve early and ongoing commitment to care are needed, with specific attention to high-risk groups to improve ART coverage and limit HIV transmission.

The cascade of care of HIV after one year of follow-up in a cohort of HIV-positive adult patients in three health settings of Morrumbene in rural Mozambique

OBJECTIVE

To assess the state of the retention in care of HIV patients in three health settings in Morrumbene, a rural district of Inhambane Province, Mozambique. We evaluated potential factors associated with early loss to follow-up (LTFU), retention in care and ART adherence during the first year of follow-up.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Retrospective, cross-sectional, observational study. We collected data on patients diagnosed with HIV infection in 2017 in two permanent clinics and one mobile clinic. Demographic, clinical, immunological and therapeutic data were retrieved up to December 31st, 2018. Data on follow-up were collected at 6 and 12 months for medical visits and for ART adherence and analysed for factors associated with LTFU, retention in care and adherence to ART by Stata Version 14 and univariate and stepwise multiple unconditional logistic regression models.

RESULTS

In 2017, 960 patients were diagnosed with HIV infection. At 6-month follow-up, 49% attended the medical visit and 157 (25%) adhered to ART. After one year, 34% of patients were available for follow-up, and only 72 patients adhered to ART. In multivariate analysis, factors associated with early LTFU were male sex (p = 0.036) and immediate prescription of ART (p = 0.064). Older age (p < 0.001) and being followed in the mobile clinic (p = 0.001) favoured retention in care. Advanced WHO status (p = 0.005) and being pregnant or breastfeeding showed a negative correlation with adherence to treatment (p = 0.068).

CONCLUSIONS

Only one-third of patients were available for follow-up after one year, and only 13% adhered to ART. Young individuals, men and pregnant/breastfeeding women seem to be particularly at risk for LTFU and non-adherence to treatment.

Incidence and predictors of attrition among children attending antiretroviral follow-up in public hospitals, Southern Ethiopia, 2020: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

It is a global challenge to enrol and retain paediatric patients in HIV/AIDS care. Attrition causes preventable transmission, stoppable morbidity and death, undesirable treatment outcomes, increased cost of care and drug resistance. Thus, this study intended to investigate the incidence and predictors of attrition among children receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART).

METHOD

A retrospective follow-up study was conducted among children <15 years who had ART follow-up in Gedeo public hospitals. After collection, data were entered into Epi-data V.4.6, then exported to and analysed using STATA V.14. Data were described using the Kaplan-Meier statistics, life table and general descriptive statistics. The analysis was computed using the Cox proportional hazard regression model. Covariates having <0.25 p values in the univariate analysis (such as developmental stage, nutritional status, haemoglobin level, adherence, etc) were fitted to multivariable analysis. Finally, statistical significance was declared at a p value of <0.05.

RESULTS

An overall 254 child charts were analysed. At the end of follow-up, attrition from ART care was 36.2% (92 of 254), of which 70 (76.1%) were lost to follow-up, and 22 (23.9%) children died. About 8145.33 child-months of observations were recorded with an incidence attrition rate of 11.3 per 1000 child-months (95% CI: 9.2 to 13.9), whereas the median survival time was 68.73 months. Decreased haemoglobin level (<10 g/dl) (adjusted HR (AHR)=3.1; 95% CI: 1.4 to 6.9), delayed developmental milestones (AHR=3.6; 95% CI: 1.2 to 10.7), underweight at baseline (AHR=5.9; 95% CI: 1.6 to 21.7), baseline CD4 count ≤200 (AHR=4.4; 95% CI: 1.6 to 12.2), and poor or fair ART adherence (AHR=3.5; 95% CI: 1.5 to 7.9) were significantly associated with attrition.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

Retention to ART care is challenging in the paediatrics population, with such a high attrition rate. Immune suppression, anaemia, underweight, delayed developmental milestones and ART non-adherence were independent predictors of attrition to ART care. Hence, it is crucial to detect and control the identified predictors promptly. Serious adherence support and strengthened nutritional provision with monitoring strategies are also essential.

HIV patients retention and attrition in care and their determinants in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There is paucity of evidence on the magnitude of HIV patients' retention and attrition in Ethiopia. Hence, the aim of this study was to determine the pooled magnitude of HIV patient clinical retention and attrition and to identify factors associated with retention and attrition in Ethiopia.

METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis were done among studies conducted in Ethiopia using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline. Both published and unpublished studies conducted from January 1, 2005 to June 6th, 2019 were included. Major databases and search engines such as Google Scholar, PUBMED, African Journals Online (AJOL) and unpublished sources were searched to retrieve relevant articles. Data were assessed for quality, heterogeneity and publication bias. Analysis was conducted using STATA version 14 software.

RESULT

From a total of 45 studies 546,250 study participants were included in this review. The pooled magnitude of retention in care among HIV patients was 70.65% (95% CI, 68.19, 73.11). The overall magnitude of loss to follow up 15.17% (95% CI, 11.86, 18.47), transfer out 11.17% (95% CI, 7.12, 15.21) and death rate were 6.75% (95% CI, 6.22, 7.27). Major determinants of attrition were being unmarried patient (OR 1.52, 95% CI: 1.15-2.01), non-disclosed HIV status (OR 6.36, 95% CI: 3.58-11.29), poor drug adherence (OR 6.60, 95% CI: 1.41-30.97), poor functional status (OR 2.11, 95% CI: 1.33-3.34), being underweight (OR 2.21, 95% CI: 1.45-3.39) and advanced clinical stage (OR 1.85, 95% CI: 1.36-2.51). Whereas absence of opportunistic infections (OR 0.52, 95% CI: 0.30-0.9), normal hemoglobin status (OR 0.29, 95% CI: 0.20-0.42) and non-substance use (OR 95% CI: 0.41, 0.17-0.98) were facilitators of HIV patient retention in clinical care.

CONCLUSION

The level of retention to the care among HIV patients was low in Ethiopia. Socio-economic, clinical, nutritional and behavioral, intervention is necessary to achieve adequate patient retention in clinical care.

Incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up among HIV infected adults after initiation of first line anti-retroviral therapy at University of Gondar comprehensive specialized Hospital Northwest Ethiopia, 2018: retrospective follow up study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence of lost to follow up from anti-retroviral therapy (ART) care and identify the associated factors among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients after first-line ART initiation at University of Gondar comprehensive specialized hospital, Northwest Ethiopia between January 2012 and January 2018.

RESULTS

The overall incidence rate of lost to follow up was 12.26 per 100 person years (95% CI (10.61-14.18)). Being underweight (< 18.5 kg/m2) (AHR, 1.52, 95% CI 1.01-2.28), jobless (AHR, 2.22, 95% CI 1.2-4.11), substance abuser (AHR, 1.84 95% CI 1.19-2.86), having sub-optimal adherence (fair/poor) (AHR 6.33, 95% CI (3.90-10.26)), not receiving isoniazid prophylaxis (AHR 2.47, 95% CI (1.36-4.48)), ambulatory functional status (AHR 1.94, 95% CI (1.23-3.06)), having opportunistic infections (AHR, 1.74 95% CI 1.11-2.72), having CD4 count 201-349 cells/µL (AHR 0.58, 95% CI (0.38-0.88)) were found to be significant predictors of lost to follow up from ART service.

Body and mind: retention in antiretroviral treatment care is improved by mental health training of care providers in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Ethiopia has achieved a high coverage of antiretroviral treatment (ART), but maintaining lifelong care is still a great challenge. Mental illnesses often co-exist with HIV/AIDS and may compromise the retention on ART. In order to improve prolonged retention in ART care, basic training in mental health care was introduced for ART providers, but this hasn't been evaluated yet. The aim of this study was to examine if this training has improved patient retention in care.

METHOD

A retrospective cohort study was employed to compare attrition from ART between clients attended by care provider trained with basic mental health service (exposed) and those in the standard ART follow-up care (unexposed) in public health facilities. A routine patient follow-up electronic database enrolled for ART between 2005 and 2017 was abstracted for the study. The Kaplan-Meier plot was used to compare the attrition rates between the two groups. The log-rank test was used to assess differences in the groups. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to determine predictors of attrition. We used estimated effect size of hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULT

During the 12 years of observation, 8009 study participants under ART were followed for 33,498 person-years. The incidence of attrition was 6.5 per 100 person-years and 21% higher in the unexposed group (HR 1.21; 95% CI 1.1, 1.3), and retention in care was significantly higher in the mental health exposed group throughout the study period. WHO clinical staging III/IV, tuberculosis coinfection, the male gender, and poor functional status were independent risk factors for attrition.

CONCLUSION

We found that clients in the group exposed to mental health care training tended to have better retention in ART care with some variation according to gender, WHO Clinical stage and functional status. Training of ART providers in mental health may be considered in order to strengthen ART retention in low resource settings.