Climate change and seasonal floods: potential long-term nutritional consequences for children in Kerala, India

Predicting the short and long term effects of food price inflation, armed conflicts, and climate variability on global acute malnutrition in Somalia

BACKGROUND

Malnutrition poses a substantial challenge in Somalia, impacting approximately 1.8 million children. This critical issue is exacerbated by a multifaceted interplay of factors. Consequently, this study seeks to examine the long-term and short-term effects of armed conflicts, food price inflation, and climate variability on global acute malnutrition in Somalia.

METHODS

The study utilized secondary data spanning from January 2015 to December 2022, sourced from relevant databases. Two distinct analytical approaches were employed to comprehensively investigate the dynamics of global acute malnutrition in Somalia. Firstly, dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) simulations were applied, allowing for a nuanced understanding of the short and long-term effects of armed conflicts, food price inflation, and climate variability on malnutrition. Additionally, the study employed kernel-based regularized least squares, a sophisticated statistical technique, to further enhance the robustness of the findings. The analysis was conducted using STATA version 17.

RESULTS

In the short run, armed conflicts and food price inflation exhibit positive associations with global acute malnutrition, particularly in conflict-prone areas and during inflationary periods. Moreover, climatic variables, specifically temperature and rainfall, demonstrate positive associations. It is important to note that temperature lacks a statistically significant relationship with global acute malnutrition in the short run. In the long run, armed conflicts and food price inflation maintain persistent impacts on global acute malnutrition, as confirmed by the dynamic ARDL simulations model. Furthermore, both temperature and rainfall continue to show positive associations with global acute malnutrition, but it is worth noting that temperature still exhibits a non-significant relationship. The results from kernel-based regularized least squares were consistent, further enhancing the robustness of the findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased armed conflicts, food price inflation, temperature, and rainfall were associated with increased global acute malnutrition. Strategies such as stabilizing conflict-prone regions, diplomatic interventions, and peace-building initiatives are crucial, along with measures to control food price inflation. Implementing climate adaptation strategies is vital to counter temperature changes and fluctuating rainfall patterns, emphasizing the need for resilience-building. Policymakers and humanitarian organizations can leverage these insights to design targeted interventions, focusing on conflict resolution, food security, and climate resilience to enhance Somalia's overall nutritional well-being.

The effect of extreme weather events on child nutrition and health

This study traces the causal effects of extreme weather events on nutritional and health outcomes among rural children in Uganda using four waves of individual child survey data (2009–2014). A simultaneous regression model was applied for causal inference while also accounting for households’ adaptive responses. The study finds the evidence of a significant negative relationship between extreme weather events and availability of calories and nutrients for children. In particular, droughts reduced calorie, protein and zinc supply, and overall diet diversity by 67%, 37%, 28% and 30%, respectively. We further traced the effects of this reduced calorie and nutrient availability on child health indicators. A 10% decrease in zinc supply decreased height-for-age z-scores (HAZ) by around 0.139 - 0.164 standard deviations (SD), and increased probability of stunting ranging from 3.1 to 3.5 percentage points. Both boys and girls HAZ and stunting rates were sensitive to nutrient inadequacies. Different coping and adaptation strategies significantly influenced rural households’ ability to safeguard children’s nutrition and health against the effects of extreme weather. The findings of this study provide specific insights for building ex-ante resilience against extreme weather events, particularly when compared to ex-post, unsustainable, and often costlier relief actions.

Climate change vulnerability, and health of women and children: Evidence from India using district level data

OBJECTIVE

To understand how climate change vulnerability is associated with women and children's health (WCH) at the district level in India.

METHODS

The district-specific climate change vulnerability index was mapped to the district level NFHS-5 data (N = 674). Fractional regression and spatial analyses were performed to examine the strength of association and the presence of geographic clustering.

RESULTS

Bivariate analysis revealed that the levels of WCH indicators were lower in districts with a high vulnerability index than in those with a low vulnerability index. Multivariable analyses suggested that with a 1% increase in the vulnerability index, the proportion of modern contraceptive use was reduced by 0.22, four or more prenatal care visits by 0.14, postnatal care by 0.11, and full immunization by 0.12; whereas wasting and underweight proportions increased by 0.07 and 0.10, respectively. The spatial analysis found that in about 70-118 districts, mostly in eastern India, where climate vulnerability was high the WCH outcomes were also poor.

CONCLUSION

There is a macro-level association between climate change vulnerability and WCH, as districts that had high levels of climate change vulnerability also performed poorly in WCH. There is a need for an integrated approach that considers geography-specific climate change threats to develop health programs.

Urban Flood Relief Management in COVID-19 Pandemic

Introduction: Urban floods were addressed as a separate disaster after the historical 2005 Mumbai floods. Urban flood peaks are 2-8 times and volume 6 times when compared with rural floods. We are now handling multiple disasters simultaneously due to the Covid-19 Pandemic. The river plains of north India are prone to floods in the monsoon season and geographical location of Prayagraj doubles the damage because it faces wrath from two sides. Very few researches have been conducted on urban floods and evidence needs to be generated from the field. Methodology: This qualitative research was planned with an objective to identify the difficulties faced in operating an urban flood relief camp during superimposed burden of COVID-19 Pandemic and to suggest remedial measures from the public health aspect. We conducted in-depth interviews of nodal officers, health staff and beneficiaries of the identified camps. Informed consent was taken from participant after explaining them about the research. Results: The findings from the interviews were categorized into 3phases of flood relief i.e. before the floods, during floods and lastly post flood. The most crucial work before floods is to spread awareness about do’s and don’ts in detail. Next was identification of the local people actually affected by flood. The space and facilities at few centers was low for the population load. Urban flood management needs a major overhauling of public health infrastructure to handle such disasters in future. Conclusion: The officials were working hard to make the homeless feel as if they are on a picnic. The database of beneficiaries should be strengthened and should also include students and labourers, anyone who is a flood victim and not only local flood victims.

Demographic perspectives in research on global environmental change

The human population is at the centre of research on global environmental change. On the one hand, population dynamics influence the environment and the global climate system through consumption-based carbon emissions. On the other hand, the health and well-being of the population are already being affected by climate change. A knowledge of population dynamics and population heterogeneity is thus fundamental to improving our understanding of how population size, composition, and distribution influence global environmental change and how these changes affect population subgroups differentially by demographic characteristics and spatial distribution. The increasing relevance of demographic research on the topic, coupled with availability of theoretical concepts and advancement in data and computing facilities, has contributed to growing engagement of demographers in this field. In the past 25 years, demographic research has enriched climate change research-with the key contribution being in moving beyond the narrow view that population matters only in terms of population size-by putting a greater emphasis on population composition and distribution, through presenting both empirical evidence and advanced population forecasting to account for demographic and spatial heterogeneity. What remains missing in the literature is research that investigates how global environmental change affects current and future demographic processes and, consequently, population trends. If global environmental change does influence fertility, mortality, and migration, then population estimates and forecasts need to adjust for climate feedback in population projections. Indisputably, this is the area of new research that directly requires expertise in population science and contribution from demographers.

Large-scale dynamics have greater role than thermodynamics in driving precipitation extremes over India

The changing characteristics of precipitation extremes under global warming have recently received tremendous attention, yet the mechanisms are still insufficiently understood. The present study attempts to understand these processes over India by separating the 'dynamic' and 'thermodynamic' components of precipitation extremes using a suite of observed and reanalysis datasets. The former is mainly due to changes in atmospheric motion, while the latter is driven mainly by the changes associated with atmospheric moisture content. Limited studies have attributed dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to precipitation extremes, and their primary focus has been on the horizontal atmospheric motion component of the water budget. Our study, on the other hand, implements the decomposition of vertical atmospheric motion, based on the framework proposed by Oueslati et al. (Sci Rep 9: 2859, 2019), which has often been overlooked, especially for India. With the focus on two major and recent extreme events in the Kerala and Uttarakhand regions of India, we show that the vertical atmospheric motion has a more significant contribution to the events than the horizontal atmospheric motion. Further, decomposition of the vertical atmospheric motion shows that the dynamic component overwhelms the thermodynamic component's contribution to these extreme events, which is found to be negligible. Using a threshold method to define extreme rainfall, we further extended our work to all India, and the results were consistent with those of the two considered events. Finally, we evaluate the contributions from the recently made available CMIP6 climate models, and the results are interestingly in alignment with the observations. The outcomes of this study will play a critical role in the proper prediction of rainfall extremes, whose value to climate adaptation can hardly be overemphasised.

Patient safety in Work Environments: Perceptions of Pediatric Healthcare Providers in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Extensive research on the link between the organizational characteristics of the work environment and patient safety in a healthcare organization has been conducted; yet, only a few studies have concentrated on care providers in a pediatric unit.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the correlation between different work environment factors impacting patient safety in a pediatric care unit from the perspective of registered nurses working in these units.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional design.

DATA SOURCES AND METHODS

The study was conducted with 155 registered nurses from a pediatric unit in a medical center in Taiwan with the Chinese version of the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire (SAQ) 2014-2017.

RESULTS

Teamwork climate, higher job satisfaction, and better working conditions are linked to positive perceptions of patient safety culture. Emotional exhaustion is negatively related to most dimensions of patient safety.

CONCLUSION

Teamwork climate, job satisfaction, working conditions, and emotional exhaustion were identified as critical factors impacting the patient safety climate.

IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING OR HEALTH POLICY

Investments to improve teamwork climate, job satisfaction, and working conditions and reduce emotional exhaustion may have a positive effect on patient safety in pediatric care units.