Hospital diagnosed pneumonia before age 20 years and multiple sclerosis risk

Association of Infectious Mononucleosis in Childhood and Adolescence With Risk for a Subsequent Multiple Sclerosis Diagnosis Among Siblings

IMPORTANCE

Epstein-Barr virus and its acute manifestation, infectious mononucleosis (IM), are associated with an increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). Whether this association is confounded by susceptibility to infection is still debated.

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether hospital-diagnosed IM during childhood, adolescence, or young adulthood is associated with subsequent MS diagnosis independent of shared familial factors.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This population-based cohort study used the Swedish Total Population Register to identify individuals born in Sweden from January 1, 1958, to December 31, 1994. Participants aged 20 years were followed up from January 1, 1978, to December 31, 2018, with a median follow-up of 15.38 (IQR, 8.68-23.55; range, 0.01-40.96) years. Data were analyzed from October 2020 to July 2021.

EXPOSURE

Hospital-diagnosed IM before 25 years of age.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Diagnoses of MS from 20 years of age were identified. Risk of an MS diagnosis associated with IM in childhood (birth to 10 years of age), adolescence (11-19 years of age), and early adulthood (20-24 years of age [time-dependent variable]) were estimated using conventional and stratified (to address familial environmental or genetic confounding) Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Of the 2 492 980 individuals (1 312 119 men [52.63%] and 1 180 861 women [47.37%]) included, 5867 (0.24%) had an MS diagnosis from 20 years of age (median age, 31.50 [IQR, 26.78-37.54] years). Infectious mononucleosis in childhood (hazard ratio [HR], 1.98; 95% CI, 1.21-3.23) and adolescence (HR, 3.00; 95% CI, 2.48-3.63) was associated with an increased risk of an MS diagnosis that remained significant after controlling for shared familial factors in stratified Cox proportional hazards regression (HRs, 2.87 [95% CI, 1.44-5.74] and 3.19 [95% CI, 2.29-4.46], respectively). Infectious mononucleosis in early adulthood was also associated with risk of a subsequent MS diagnosis (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.18-3.05), but this risk was attenuated and was not significant after controlling for shared familial factors (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 0.82-2.76).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that IM in childhood and particularly adolescence is a risk factor associated with a diagnosis of MS, independent of shared familial factors.

The multiple sclerosis prodrome

A prodrome is an early set of signs, symptoms or other findings that occur before the onset of typical symptoms of a disease. Prodromal phases are well recognized in several neurological and inflammatory diseases, but the possibility of a prodrome in multiple sclerosis (MS) has received relatively little attention until the past few years. In this Perspective, we summarize what is currently known about the MS prodrome, including its possible duration, clinical features and potential biomarkers. We also consider what insights and lessons can be learned from knowledge of and research into the prodromal phases of other diseases. A better understanding of the MS prodrome could have profound clinical implications as it could enable earlier recognition of MS and earlier initiation of treatments that reduce relapse rates and long-term disability. Knowledge of the MS prodrome could also affect research into the causes of MS, and putative risk factors must be re-evaluated in light of the MS prodrome. We conclude by outlining the major knowledge gaps and propose future initiatives.

Hospital-diagnosed infections before age 20 and risk of a subsequent multiple sclerosis diagnosis

The involvement of specific viral and bacterial infections as risk factors for multiple sclerosis has been studied extensively. However, whether this extends to infections in a broader sense is less clear and little is known about whether risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis is associated with other types and sites of infections, such as of the CNS. This study aims to assess if hospital-diagnosed infections by type and site before age 20 years are associated with risk of a subsequent multiple sclerosis diagnosis and whether this association is explained entirely by infectious mononucleosis, pneumonia, and CNS infections. Individuals born in Sweden between 1970-1994 were identified using the Swedish Total Population Register (n = 2,422,969). Multiple sclerosis diagnoses from age 20 years and hospital-diagnosed infections before age 20 years were identified using the Swedish National Patient Register. Risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis associated with various infections in adolescence (11-19 years) and earlier childhood (birth-10 years) was estimated using Cox regression, with adjustment for sex, parental socioeconomic position, and infection type. None of the infections by age 10 years were associated with risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis. Any infection in adolescence increased the risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis (hazard ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 1.21-1.46) and remained statistically significant after exclusion of infectious mononucleosis, pneumonia, and CNS infection (hazard ratio 1.17, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.30). CNS infection in adolescence (excluding encephalomyelitis to avoid including acute disseminated encephalitis) increased the risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis (hazard ratio 1.85, 95% confidence interval 1.11-3.07). The increased risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis associated with viral infection in adolescence was largely explained by infectious mononucleosis. Bacterial infections in adolescence increased risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis, but the magnitude of risk reduced after excluding infectious mononucleosis, pneumonia and CNS infection (hazard ratio 1.31, 95% confidence interval 1.13-1.51). Respiratory infection in adolescence also increased risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis (hazard ratio 1.51, 95% confidence interval 1.30-1.75), but was not statistically significant after excluding infectious mononucleosis and pneumonia. These findings suggest that a variety of serious infections in adolescence, including novel evidence for CNS infections, are risk factors for a subsequent multiple sclerosis diagnosis, further demonstrating adolescence is a critical period of susceptibility to environmental exposures that raise the risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis. Importantly, this increased risk cannot be entirely explained by infectious mononucleosis, pneumonia, or CNS infections.