A proposed model for prediction of survival based on a follow-up study in unresectable pancreatic cancer

SOURCE-PANC: A Prediction Model for Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Based on Nationwide Population-Based Data

BACKGROUND

A prediction model for overall survival (OS) in metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) including patient and treatment characteristics is currently not available, but it could be valuable for supporting clinicians in patient communication about expectations and prognosis. We aimed to develop a prediction model for OS in metastatic PDAC, called SOURCE-PANC, based on nationwide population-based data.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data on patients diagnosed with synchronous metastatic PDAC in 2015 through 2018 were retrieved from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. A multivariate Cox regression model was created to predict OS for various treatment strategies. Available patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics were used to compose the model. Treatment strategies were categorized as systemic treatment (subdivided into FOLFIRINOX, gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel, and gemcitabine monotherapy), biliary drainage, and best supportive care only. Validation was performed according to a temporal internal-external cross-validation scheme. The predictive quality was assessed with the C-index and calibration.

RESULTS

Data for 4,739 patients were included in the model. Sixteen predictors were included: age, sex, performance status, laboratory values (albumin, bilirubin, CA19-9, lactate dehydrogenase), clinical tumor and nodal stage, tumor sublocation, presence of distant lymph node metastases, liver or peritoneal metastases, number of metastatic sites, and treatment strategy. The model demonstrated a C-index of 0.72 in the internal-external cross-validation and showed good calibration, with the intercept and slope 95% confidence intervals including the ideal values of 0 and 1, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A population-based prediction model for OS was developed for patients with metastatic PDAC and showed good performance. The predictors that were included in the model comprised both baseline patient and tumor characteristics and type of treatment. SOURCE-PANC will be incorporated in an electronic decision support tool to support shared decision-making in clinical practice.

Investigating disparities: the effect of social environment on pancreatic cancer survival in metastatic patients

Background

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PCA) incidence is higher in Black compared to White patients. Beyond race, neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES) may also inform disparities. However, these effects on metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma (mPCA) are not well-studied. The aim of this study was to explore whether nSES influences survival in patients with mPCA.

Methods

nSES measures were derived from U.S. census data at the census tract (CT) level. We correlated medical records of mPCA patients (diagnosed 2010-2016; n=370) to nSES measures retrospectively via a geocode derived from patient address. Multivariable cox proportional hazards models were used to identify patient-level (age, sex, race, marital status, treatment (radiation/chemo/surgery), PCA family history, stage, Jewish ancestry, tobacco use, BMI, diabetes, and statin use) and nSES measures (deprivation, racial concentration, stability, transportation access, immigration) associated with mPCA survival; P values <0.05 were significant.

Results

Eighty-two percent of patients were White; less than one-third of patients resided in highly deprived neighborhoods. Three hundred thirty-three mPCA patient deaths occurred, with a survival ranging from 7-9 months (median 8 months). Patient-level factors including younger age, receipt of chemotherapy or initial surgery and statin use, were associated with improved survival, whereas neighborhood stability (i.e., a higher % of residents still living in the same house as 1 year ago) was significantly associated with poor pancreatic survival.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest nSES has limited effect on survival of mPCA patients as compared to clinical variables. This may be due to the aggressive nature of this cancer, however, additional studies with larger, more diverse cohorts are needed to better understand the effect of nSES on survival of patients with mPCA.

The investigation of the survival time after recurrence in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma for individualization of adjuvant chemotherapy

PURPOSE

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a lethal disease; however, the frequency of recurrence can be reduced if curative surgery following adjuvant chemotherapy is applied. At present, adjuvant chemotherapy is uniformly performed in all patients, as it is unclear which tumor types are controlled best or worst. We investigated patients with recurrence to establish the optimum treatment strategy.

METHODS

Of 138 patients who underwent curative surgery for PDAC, 85 developed recurrence. Comprehensive clinicopathological factors were investigated for their association with the survival time after recurrence (SAR).

RESULTS

The median SAR was 12.6 months. Treatments for recurrence included best supportive care, GEM-based therapy and S-1. The performance status [hazard ratio (HR) 0.12, P < 0.001], histological invasion of lymph vessels (HR 0.27, P < 0.001), kind of treatment for recurrence (HR 5.0, P < 0.001) and initial recurrence site (HR 2.9, P < 0.001) were independent significant risk factors for the SAR. The initial recurrence sites were the liver (n = 21, median SAR 8.8 months), lung (n = 10, 14.9 months), peritoneum (n = 6, 1.7 months), lymph nodes (n = 6, 14.7 months), local site (n = 17, 13.9 months) and multiple sites (n = 25, 10.1 months). A shorter recurrence-free survival (< 1 year) and higher postoperative CA19-9 level were significantly associated with critical recurrence (peritoneal/liver).

CONCLUSIONS

Several risk factors for SAR were detected in this study. Further investigations are needed to individualize the adjuvant chemotherapy for each patient with PDAC.

Serum interleukin-6 is associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma progression pattern

Several reports showed that interleukin-6 (IL-6) or -8 (IL-8) might be useful inflammatory biomarkers for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), although these clinical impact is still open to debate. The aim of this study was to elucidate whether serum levels of IL-6 and IL-8 at diagnosis could predict the tumor progression pattern of PDAC, especially in extensive hepatic metastasis.According to the tumor burden of hepatic metastasis at the last follow-up, tumor progression pattern was defined as follows: no or limited (unilobar involvement and 5 or less in the within liver, limited group) and extensive hepatic metastasis (bilobar or more than 5, progressed group). Fifty-three PDAC patients with initially no or limited hepatic metastasis were enrolled retrospectively.Around 42 (79.2%) were included in the limited and 11 (20.8%) in the progressed group. The median serum level of IL-6 in the progressed group was elevated significantly compared with the limited group. However, the median serum level of IL-8 was not. Furthermore, multivariate analysis revealed that the elevated serum level of IL-6 was an independent risk factor for progression to extensive hepatic metastasis (odds ratio 1.928, 95% confidence interval 1.131-3.365, P = 0.019), but IL-8 was not. However, higher IL-6 did not predict shorter survival.High serum IL-6 can be an independent risk factor for progression to extensive hepatic metastasis in PDAC patients.

Indications for staging laparoscopy in pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

To identify indications for staging laparoscopy (SL) in patients with resectable pancreatic cancer, and suggest a pre-operative algorithm for staging these patients.

METHODS

Relevant articles were reviewed from the published literature using the Medline database. The search was performed using the keywords 'pancreatic cancer', 'resectability', 'staging', 'laparoscopy', and 'Whipple's procedure'.

RESULTS

Twenty four studies were identified which fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Of the published data, the most reliable surrogate markers for selecting patients for SL to predict unresectability in patients with CT defined resectable pancreatic cancer were CA 19.9 and tumour size. Although there are studies suggesting a role for tumour location, CEA levels, and clinical findings such as weight loss and jaundice, there is currently not enough evidence for these variables to predict resectability. Based on the current data, patients with a CT suggestive of resectable disease and (1) CA 19.9 ≥150 U/mL; or (2) tumour size >3 cm should be considered for SL.

CONCLUSION

The role of laparoscopy in the staging of pancreatic cancer patients remains controversial. Potential predictors of unresectability to select patients for SL include CA 19.9 levels and tumour size.

Initial Metastatic Site as a Prognostic Factor in Patients With Stage IV Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Few studies have evaluated the presence of hepatic or peritoneal metastasis as a prognostic factor in patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). This study aimed to elucidate the prognostic value of the initial metastatic, extrahepatic, or hepatic site in patients with metastatic PDAC. Between January 2007 and December 2013, the medical records of 343 patients with metastatic PDAC treated at Seoul National University Bundang Hospital were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were classified as having extrahepatic metastasis alone (EH), hepatic metastasis alone (LV), and both hepatic and extrahepatic metastasis (BOTH). The median age was 67 years; 207 patients were men. Patients were classified as having EH (111 patients), LV (106), and BOTH (126). Totally, 212 patients underwent chemotherapy with a FOLFIRINOX (23 patients) or gemcitabine-based regimen (189). On multivariate analysis, an ECOG score ≥2 (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.2-4.5), albumin < 35  g/L (HR: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.1-2.3), C-reactive protein > 10  mg/L (HR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.6-3.2), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio > 5 (HR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.0-2.0), no chemotherapy (HR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.0-4.1), and metastatic site (LV, HR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.4-3.1; BOTH, HR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.6-3.2) were significantly associated with shorter overall survival (OS). Considering the initial metastatic site, the median OS of patients with EH, LV, and BOTH were 7.5 (95% CI: 6.3-8.8), 4.8 (95% CI: 4.1-5.5), and 2.4 (95% CI: 1.9-2.9) months, respectively. The initial metastatic site is significantly and independently associated with OS in patients with metastatic PDAC, serving as an effective prognostic factor.