Association of skirt size and postmenopausal breast cancer risk in older women: a cohort study within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS)

Traditional and Novel Adiposity Indicators and Pancreatic Cancer Risk: Findings from the UK Women's Cohort Study

(1) Background: We studied the association of both conventional (BMI, waist and hip circumference and waist-hip ratio) and novel (UK clothing sizes) obesity indices with pancreatic cancer risk in the UK women's cohort study (UKWCS). (2) Methods: The UKWCS recruited 35,792 women from England, Wales and Scotland from 1995 to 1998. Cancer diagnosis and death information were obtained from the National Health Service (NHS) Central Register. Cox's proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the association between baseline obesity indicators and pancreatic cancer risk. (3) Results: This analysis included 35,364 participants with a median follow-up of 19.3 years. During the 654,566 person-years follow up, there were 136 incident pancreatic cancer cases. After adjustments for age, smoking, education and physical activity, each centimetre increase in hip circumference (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05, p = 0.009) and each size increase in skirt size (HR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.02-1.23, p = 0.041) at baseline increased pancreatic cancer risk. Baseline BMI became a significant predictor of pancreatic cancer risk (HR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00-1.08, p = 0.050) when latent pancreatic cancer cases were removed. Only baseline hip circumference was associated with pancreatic cancer risk (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00-1.05, p = 0.017) when participants with diabetes at baseline were excluded to control for reverse causality. (4) Conclusion: Hip circumference and skirt size were significant predictors of pancreatic cancer risk in the primary analysis. Thus, hip circumference is useful to assess body shape relationships. Additionally, standard skirt sizes offer an economical and objective alternative to conventional obesity indices for evaluating pancreatic cancer risk in women.

Long term absence of invasive breast cancer diagnosis in 2,402,672 pre and postmenopausal women: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Invasive Breast Cancer (IBC) risk estimates continue to be based on data collated from cancer registries, i.e., retrospective research that excludes disease-free women. For women without a prior diagnosis, these estimates inflate both risk and screening frequency recommendations and inadvertently increase recently recognized harms from overdiagnosis and overtreatment.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the likelihood that pre or postmenopausal women with no prior diagnosis will remain free of IBC in order to enable evidence-based screening recommendations.

METHODS

Prospective data from 21 studies of 2,402,672 women were analyzed, updating our previously published systematic search of 19 studies. This second systematic search included PubMed and The Cochrane Library from 2012 through April 2019. Inclusion criteria: only studies reporting the number of women enrolled, length of follow-up, and number of women diagnosed with IBC. Linear regression was used to estimate the percentage of women expected to remain free from an IBC diagnosis based on follow-up duration. To minimize non-response bias and selective outcome bias, only studies reporting outcomes for all enrolled women followed for similar, specific lengths of time were included. Sensitivity analyses confirm that the overall findings were unchanged by age at enrollment, menopausal status, screened women, variation in sample size, duration of follow-up, and heteroskedasticity.

RESULTS

The calculated percentage of women remaining IBC-free after follow-ups of 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years decreases uniformly by about one-fourth of one percent per year, i.e., 0.255% (95% CI: -0.29, -0.22; p < .0001). At 25 years, the expected percentage of women with no invasive breast cancer is 93.41% (95% CI: 92.75, 94.07).

CONCLUSIONS

Over 99.7% of pre/postmenopausal women with no prior diagnosis continued with no IBC each year, with 93.41% still free after 25 years. Our study supports the medical justification for reducing the frequency of mammograms for menopausal women with no prior IBC diagnosis.

Associations of clothing size, adiposity and weight change with risk of postmenopausal breast cancer in the UK Women's Cohort Study (UKWCS)

OBJECTIVES

Breast cancer is associated with overweight and obesity after menopause. However, clothing size as a proxy of adiposity in predicting postmenopausal breast cancer is not widely studied. We aimed to explore the relationships between postmenopausal breast cancer risk with adipose indicators (including clothing sizes) and weight change over adulthood.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

England, Wales and Scotland.

PARTICIPANTS

17 781 postmenopausal women from the UK Women's Cohort Study.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Incident cases of malignant breast cancers (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 9 code 174 and ICD 10 code C50).

RESULTS

From 282 277 person-years follow-up, there were 946 incident breast cancer cases with an incidence rate of 3.35 per 1000 women. Body mass index (HR: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.07), blouse size (HR: 1.10; 1.03 to 1.18), waist circumference (HR: 1.07; 1.01 to 1.14) and skirt size (HR: 1.14;1.06 to 1.22) had positive associations with postmenopausal breast cancer after adjustment for potential confounders. Increased weight over adulthood (HR: 1.02; 1.01 to 1.03) was also associated with increased risk for postmenopausal breast cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Blouse and skirt sizes can be used as adipose indicators in predicting postmenopausal breast cancer. Maintaining healthy body weight over adulthood is an effective measure in the prevention of postmenopausal breast cancer.

Association between skirt size and chronic liver disease in post-menopausal women: a prospective cohort study within the United Kingdom Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS)

Background

We investigated the association between self-reported skirt size (SS) and change in SS, and incidence of chronic liver disease (CLD) in a prospective cohort study of women recruited to the UKCTOCS trial.

Methods

Women recruited to UKCTOCS in England without documented CLD self-reported their current UK SS during trial participation and were asked to recall their SS when aged in 20s (via completion of a questionnaire 3–5 years after recruitment). Participants were followed up via electronic health record linkage and hazard ratios (HR) calculated for incident liver-related events (LRE).

Results

Three hundred twenty-two (0.3%) of 94,124 women experienced a first LRE. Compared to SS ≤ 16, rates of LRE were higher in the SS ≥ 18 groups (both when aged in 20s and at questionnaire completion). Event rates were higher if there was no change in SS or an increase in SS, compared to a decrease in SS.

In the models adjusted for potential confounders, HRs for LRE were higher in the groups of women reporting SS ≥ 18 both when aged in 20s (HR = 1.39 (95% CI; 0.87–2.23)) and at questionnaire completion (HR = 1.37 (95% CI; 1.07–1.75)). Compared to a decrease in SS, HRs were higher in the no change (HR = 1.78 (95% CI; 0.95–3.34)) and increase (HR = 1.80 (95% CI; 1.01–3.21)) groups.

Conclusion

CLD is associated with high SS and an increase in SS over time. These data suggest SS can be used in simple public health messages about communicating the risk of liver disease.

Trial Registration

UKCTOCS is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN22488978. Registered 06/04/2000.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5308-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evaluation of serum CEA, CYFRA21-1 and CA125 for the early detection of colorectal cancer using longitudinal preclinical samples

Background:

Blood-borne biomarkers for early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) could markedly increase screening uptake. The aim of this study was to evaluate serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), CYFRA21-1 and CA125 for the early detection of CRC in an asymptomatic cohort.

Methods:

This nested case–control study within UKCTOCS used 381 serial serum samples from 40 women subsequently diagnosed with CRC, 20 women subsequently diagnosed with benign disease and 40 matched non-cancer controls with three to four samples per subject taken annually up to 4 years before diagnosis. CEA, CYFRA21-1 and CA125 were measured using validated assays and performance of markers evaluated for different pre-diagnosis time groups.

Results:

CEA levels increased towards diagnosis in a third of all cases (half of late-stage cases), whereas longitudinal profiles were static in both benign and non-cancer controls. At a threshold of >5 ng ml⁻¹ the sensitivities for detecting CRC up to 1 and 4 years before clinical presentation were 25% and 13%, respectively, at 95% specificity. At a threshold of >2.5 ng ml⁻¹, sensitivities were 57.5% and 38.4%, respectively, with specificities of 81% and 83.5%. CYFRA21-1 and CA125 had no utility as screening markers and did not enhance CEA performance when used in combination. CEA gave average lead times of 17–24 months for test-positive cases.

Conclusions:

CEA is elevated in a significant proportion of individuals with preclinical CRC, but would not be useful alone as a screening tool. This work sets a baseline from which to develop panels of biomarkers which combine CEA for improved early detection of CRC.

Breast cancer risk reduction--is it feasible to initiate a randomised controlled trial of a lifestyle intervention programme (ActWell) within a national breast screening programme?

Background

Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the second cause of cancer deaths amongst women in the UK. The incidence of the disease is increasing and is highest in women from least deprived areas. It is estimated that around 42% of the disease in post-menopausal women could be prevented by increased physical activity and reductions in alcohol intake and body fatness. Breast cancer control endeavours focus on national screening programmes but these do not include communications or interventions for risk reduction.

This study aimed to assess the feasibility of delivery, indicative effects and acceptability of a lifestyle intervention programme initiated within the NHS Scottish Breast Screening Programme (NHSSBSP).

Methods

A 1:1 randomised controlled trial (RCT) of the 3 month ActWell programme (focussing on body weight, physical activity and alcohol) versus usual care conducted in two NHSSBSP sites between June 2013 and January 2014. Feasibility assessments included recruitment, retention, and fidelity to protocol. Indicative outcomes were measured at baseline and 3 month follow-up (body weight, waist circumference, eating and alcohol habits and physical activity). At study end, a questionnaire assessed participant satisfaction and qualitative interviews elicited women’s, coaches, and radiographers’ experiences. Statistical analysis used Chi squared tests for comparisons in proportions and paired t tests for comparisons of means. Linear regression analyses were performed, adjusted for baseline values, with group allocation as a fixed effect.

Results

A pre-set recruitment target of 80 women was achieved within 12 weeks and 65 (81%) participants (29 intervention, 36 control) completed 3 month assessments. Mean age was 58 ± 5.6 years, mean BMI was 29.2 ± 7.0 kg/m² and many (44%) reported a family history of breast cancer.

The primary analysis (baseline body weight adjusted) showed a significant between group difference favouring the intervention group of 2.04 kg (95% CI −3.24 kg to −0.85 kg). Significant, favourable between group differences were also detected for BMI, waist circumference, physical activity and sitting time. Women rated the programme highly and 70% said they would recommend it to others.

Conclusions

Recruitment, retention, indicative results and participant acceptability support the development of a definitive RCT to measure long term effects.

Trial registration

The trial was registered with Current Controlled Trials (ISRCTN56223933).

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12966-014-0156-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.