Prevalence of latent TB infection and TB disease among adolescents in high TB burden countries in Africa: a systematic review protocol

Strong Effect of Demographic Changes on Tuberculosis Susceptibility in South Africa

South Africa is among the world's top eight TB burden countries, and despite a focus on HIV-TB co-infection, most of the population living with TB are not HIV co-infected. The disease is endemic across the country with 80-90% exposure by adulthood. We investigated epidemiological risk factors for tuberculosis (TB) in the Northern Cape Province, South Africa: an understudied TB endemic region with extreme TB incidence (645/100,000) and the lowest provincial population density. We leveraged the population's high TB incidence and community transmission to design a case-control study with population-based controls, reflecting similar mechanisms of exposure between the groups. We recruited 1,126 participants with suspected TB from 12 community health clinics, and generated a cohort of 878 individuals (cases =374, controls =504) after implementing our enrollment criteria. All participants were GeneXpert Ultra tested for active TB by a local clinic. We assessed important risk factors for active TB using logistic regression and random forest modeling. Additionally, a subset of individuals were genotyped to determine genome-wide ancestry components. Male gender had the strongest effect on TB risk (OR: 2.87 [95% CI: 2.1-3.8]); smoking and alcohol consumption did not significantly increase TB risk. We identified two interactions: age by socioeconomic status (SES) and birthplace by residence locality on TB risk (OR = 3.05, p = 0.016) - where rural birthplace but town residence was the highest risk category. Finally, participants had a majority Khoe-San ancestry, typically greater than 50%. Epidemiological risk factors for this cohort differ from other global populations. The significant interaction effects reflect rapid changes in SES and mobility over recent generations and strongly impact TB risk in the Northern Cape of South Africa. Our models show that such risk factors combined explain 16% of the variance (r2) in case/control status.

Regional changes in tuberculosis disease burden among adolescents in South Africa (2005-2015)

BACKGROUND

Adolescents in the Western Cape Province of South Africa had high force of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infection (14% per annum) and high TB incidence (710 per 100,000 person-years) in 2005. We describe subsequent temporal changes in adolescent TB disease notification rates for the decade 2005-2015.

METHOD

We conducted an analysis of patient-level adolescent (age 10-19 years) TB disease data, obtained from an electronic TB register in the Breede Valley sub-district, Western Cape Province, South Africa, for 2005-2015. Numerators were annual TB notifications (HIV-related and HIV-unrelated); denominators were mid-year population estimates. Period averages of TB rates were obtained using time series modeling. Temporal trends in TB rates were explored using the Mann-Kendall test.

FINDINGS

The average adolescent TB disease notification rate was 477 per 100,000 for all TB patients (all-TB) and 361 per 100,000 for microbiologically-confirmed patients. The adolescent all-TB rate declined by 45% from 662 to 361 per 100,000 and the microbiologically-confirmed TB rate by 38% from 492 to 305 per 100,000 between 2005-2015, driven mainly by rapid decreases for the period 2005-2009. There was a statistically significant negative temporal trend in both all-TB (per 100,000) (declined by 48%; from 662 to 343; p = 0·028) and microbiologically confirmed TB (per 100,000) (declined by 49%; from 492 to 252; p = 0·027) for 2005-2009, which was not observed for the period 2009-2015 (rose 5%; from 343 to 361; p = 0·764 and rose 21%; from 252 to 305; p = 1·000, respectively).

INTERPRETATION

We observed an encouraging fall in adolescent TB disease rates between 2005-2009 with a subsequent plateau during 2010-2015, suggesting that additional interventions are needed to sustain initial advances in TB control.

Global trends and gaps in research related to latent tuberculosis infection

BACKGROUND

There is a global commitment to eliminating tuberculosis (TB). It is critical to detect and treat cases of latent TB infection (LTBI), the reservoir of new TB cases. Our study assesses trends in publication of LTBI-related research.

METHODS

We used the keywords ("latent tuberculosis" OR "LTBI" OR "latent TB") to search the Web of Science for LTBI-related articles published 1995-2018, then classified the results into three research areas: laboratory sciences, clinical research, and public health. We calculated the proportions of LTBI-related articles in each area to three areas combined, the average rates of LTBI-related to all scientific and TB-related articles, and the average annual percent changes (AAPC) in rates for all countries and for the top 13 countries individually and combined publishing LTBI research.

RESULTS

The proportion of LTBI-related articles increased over time in all research areas, with the highest AAPC in laboratory (38.2%/yr), followed by public health (22.9%/yr) and clinical (15.1%/yr). South Africa (rate ratio [RR] = 8.28, 95% CI 5.68 to 12.08) and India (RR = 2.53, 95% CI 1.74 to 3.69) had higher RRs of overall TB-related articles to all articles, but did not outperform the average of the top 13 countries in the RRs of LTBI-related articles to TB-related articles. Italy (RR = 1.95, 95% CI 1.45 to 2.63), Canada (RR = 1.73, 95% CI 1.28 to 2.34), and Spain (RR = 1.53, 95% CI 1.13 to 2.07) had higher RRs of LTBI-related articles to TB-related articles.

CONCLUSIONS

High TB burden countries (TB incidence > 100 per 100,000 population) published more overall TB-related research, whereas low TB burden countries showed greater focus on LTBI. Given the potential benefits, high TB burden countries should consider increasing their emphasis on LTBI-related research.