Development and validation of the Fracture Risk Scale (FRS) that predicts fracture over a 1-year time period in institutionalised frail older people living in Canada: an electronic record-linked longitudinal cohort study

Hip fracture rate and osteoporosis treatment in Ontario: A population-based retrospective cohort study

This population-based study analyzes hip fracture and osteoporosis treatment rates among older adults, stratified by place of residence prior to fracture. Hip fracture rates were higher among older adults living in the community and discharged to long-term care (LTC) after fracture, compared to LTC residents and older adults living in the community. Only 23% of LTC residents at high fracture risk received osteoporosis treatment.

PURPOSE

This population-based study examines hip fracture rate and osteoporosis management among long-term care (LTC) residents > 65 years of age compared to community-dwelling older adults at the time of fracture and admitted to LTC after fracture, in Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

Healthcare utilization and administrative databases were linked using unique, encoded identifiers from the ICES Data Repository to estimate hip fractures (identified using the Public Health Agency of Canada algorithm and International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes) and osteoporosis management (pharmacotherapy) among adults > 66 years from April 1, 2014 to March 31, 2018. Sex-specific and age-standardized rates were compared by pre-fracture residency and discharge location (i.e., LTC to LTC, community to LTC, or community to community). Fracture risk was determined using the Fracture Risk Scale (FRS).

RESULTS

At baseline (2014/15), the overall age-standardized hip fracture rate among LTC residents was 223 per 10,000 person-years (173 per 10,000 females and 157 per 10,000 males), 509 per 10,000 person-years (468 per 10,000 females and 320 per 10,000 males) among the community to LTC cohort, and 31.5 per 10,000 person-years (43.1 per 10,000 females and 25.6 per 10,000 males). During the 5-year observation period, the overall annual average percent change (APC) for hip fracture increased significantly in LTC (AAPC =  + 8.6 (95% CI 5.0 to 12.3; p = 0.004) compared to the community to LTC group (AAPC =  + 2.5 (95% CI - 3.0 to 8.2; p = 0.248)) and the community-to-community cohort (AAPC - 3.8 (95% CI - 6.7 to - 0.7; p = 030)). However, hip fracture rate remained higher in the community to LTC group over the study period. There were 33,594 LTC residents identified as high risk of fracture (FRS score 4 +), of which 7777 were on treatment (23.3%).

CONCLUSION

Overall, hip fracture rates have increased in LTC and among community-dwelling adults admitted to LTC after fracture. However, hip fracture rates among community-dwelling adults have decreased over time. A non-significant increase in osteoporosis treatment rates was observed among LTC residents at high risk of fracture (FRS4 +). Residents in LTC are at very high risk for fracture and require individualized based on goals of care and life expectancy.

Osteoporosis management in Australian aged care facilities: a mixed method study

Osteoporosis is a common but sub-optimally managed disease amongst aged care residents. Pharmacists undertaking comprehensive medication reviews is one strategy to improve osteoporosis management. Analysis of pharmacist medication review recommendations has identified common clinical practice issues that can be addressed to optimise osteoporosis management for aged care residents.

PURPOSE

This study investigates the prevalence of osteoporosis medicine use amongst Australian aged care residents and explores drug-related problems (DRPs) identified during medication reviews and pharmacist recommendations to resolve them.

METHODS

Resident demographics, medications, diagnoses, osteoporosis related DRPs, and recommendations to resolve them were extracted from medication review reports. A mixed methods approach was taken to analysis, involving descriptive statistical analysis and content analysis.

RESULTS

Medication review reports relating to 980 residents were collected. Antiresorptive therapies were used by 21.7% of residents, of which 87.2% were prescribed denosumab. Osteoporosis related DRPs represented 14.0% of all DRPs identified by pharmacists. Vitamin D was involved in 55.4% of these DRPs, the remainder concerned antiresorptive therapies (23.4%), medications contributing to osteoporosis (16.3%), and calcium (4.9%). Frequent deviations in practice from aged care clinical guidelines and consensus recommendations concerning vitamin D and calcium were found. DRPs and accompanying recommendations relating to denosumab revealed inadequate monitoring and inadvertent therapy disruptions.

CONCLUSION

Pharmacist identified DRPs and recommendations revealed common aspects of clinical practice that can be addressed to improve osteoporosis management for aged care residents. A need to raise awareness of aged care-specific consensus recommendations concerning vitamin D and calcium is evident. Facility protocols and procedures must be developed and implemented to ensure safe and effective use of denosumab.

The risk of fractures after entering long-term care facilities

BACKGROUND

Stratifying residents at increased risk for fractures in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) can potentially improve awareness and facilitate the delivery of targeted interventions to reduce risk. Although several fracture risk assessment tools exist, most are not suitable for individuals entering LTCF. Moreover, existing tools do not examine risk profiles of individuals at key periods in their aged care journey, specifically at entry into LTCFs.

PURPOSE

Our objectives were to identify fracture predictors, develop a fracture risk prognostic model for new LTCF residents and compare its performance to the Fracture Risk Assessment in Long term care (FRAiL) model using the Registry of Senior Australians (ROSA) Historical National Cohort, which contains integrated health and aged care information for individuals receiving long term care services.

METHODS

Individuals aged ≥65 years old who entered 2079 facilities in three Australian states between 01/01/2009 and 31/12/2016 were examined. Fractures (any) within 365 days of LTCF entry were the outcome of interest. Individual, medication, health care, facility and system-related factors were examined as predictors. A fracture prognostic model was developed using elastic nets penalised regression and Fine-Gray models. Model discrimination was examined using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) from the 20 % testing dataset. Model performance was compared to an existing risk model (i.e., FRAiL model).

RESULTS

Of the 238,782 individuals studied, 62.3 % (N = 148,838) were women, 49.7 % (N = 118,598) had dementia and the median age was 84 (interquartile range 79-89). Within 365 days of LTCF entry, 7.2 % (N = 17,110) of individuals experienced a fracture. The strongest fracture predictors included: complex health care rating (no vs high care needs, sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) = 1.52, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.39-1.67), nutrition rating (moderate vs worst, sHR = 1.48, 95%CI 1.38-1.59), prior fractures (sHR ranging from 1.24 to 1.41 depending on fracture site/type), one year history of general practitioner attendances (≥16 attendances vs none, sHR = 1.35, 95%CI 1.18-1.54), use of dopa and dopa derivative antiparkinsonian medications (sHR = 1.28, 95%CI 1.19-1.38), history of osteoporosis (sHR = 1.22, 95%CI 1.16-1.27), dementia (sHR = 1.22, 95%CI 1.17-1.28) and falls (sHR = 1.21, 95%CI 1.17-1.25). The model AUC in the testing cohort was 0.62 (95%CI 0.61-0.63) and performed similar to the FRAiL model (AUC = 0.61, 95%CI 0.60-0.62).

CONCLUSIONS

Critical information captured during transition into LTCF can be effectively leveraged to inform fracture risk profiling. New fracture predictors including complex health care needs, recent emergency department encounters, general practitioner and consultant physician attendances, were identified.

Predictive value of machine learning on fracture risk in osteoporosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Early identification of fracture risk in patients with osteoporosis is essential. Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a promising technique to predict the risk, whereas its predictive performance remains controversial. Therefore, we conducted this systematic review and meta-analysis to explore the predictive efficiency of ML for the risk of fracture in patients with osteoporosis.

METHODS

Relevant studies were retrieved from four databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of Science) until 31 May 2023. A meta-analysis of the C-index was performed using a random-effects model, while a bivariate mixed-effects model was used for the meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity. In addition, subgroup analysis was performed according to the types of ML models and fracture sites.

RESULTS

Fifty-three studies were included in our meta-analysis, involving 15 209 268 patients, 86 prediction models specifically developed for the osteoporosis population and 41 validation sets. The most commonly used predictors in these models encompassed age, BMI, past fracture history, bone mineral density T-score, history of falls, BMD, radiomics data, weight, height, gender and other chronic diseases. Overall, the pooled C-index of ML was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.78) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.78) in the training set and validation set, respectively; the pooled sensitivity was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.84) and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.81) in the training set and validation set, respectively; and the pooled specificity was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.75, 0.86) and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.90) in the training set and validation set, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

ML has a favourable predictive performance for fracture risk in patients with osteoporosis. However, most current studies lack external validation. Thus, external validation is required to verify the reliability of ML models.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022346896.

Prescriber Perspectives and Experiences with Deprescribing Versus Continuing Bisphosphonates in Older Nursing Home Residents with Dementia

BACKGROUND

Few guidelines address fracture prevention medication use in nursing home (NH) residents with dementia.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to identify factors that influence prescriber decision-making for deprescribing of bisphosphonates for older NH residents with dementia.

METHODS

We conducted 12 semi-structured interviews with prescribers who care for older adults with dementia in NHs.

MAIN MEASURES

Interview prompts addressed experiences treating fractures, benefits, and harms of bisphosphonates, and experiences with deprescribing. Coding was guided by the social-ecological framework including patient-level (intrapersonal) and external (interpersonal, system, community, and policy) influences.

RESULTS

Most prescribers were physicians (83%); 75% were female and 75% were White. Most (75%) spent less than half of their clinical effort in NHs and half were in the first decade of practice. Among patient-level influences, prescribers uniformly agreed that a prior bisphosphonate treatment course of several years, emergence of adverse effects, and changing goals of care or limited life expectancy were compelling reasons to deprescribe. External influences were frequently discussed as barriers to deprescribing. At the interpersonal level, prescribers noted that family/informal caregivers are diverse in their involvement in decision-making, and frequently concerned about the adverse effects of bisphosphonates, but perceive deprescribing as "withdrawing care." At the health system level, prescribers felt that frequent transitions make it difficult to determine duration of prior treatment and to implement deprescribing. At the policy level, prescribers highlighted the lack of guidelines addressing residents with limited mobility and dementia or criteria for deprescribing, including uncertainty in the setting of prior fractures and lack of bone densitometry in NHs.

CONCLUSION

Systems-level barriers to evaluating bone densitometry and treatment history in NHs may impede person-centered decision-making for fracture prevention. Further research is needed to evaluate the residual benefits of bisphosphonates in medically complex residents with limited mobility and dementia to inform recommendations for deprescribing versus continued use.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Random Forest Models for Prediction of Hip Fracture Risk Versus Mortality Risk in the Oldest Old

Targeted fracture prevention strategies among late-life adults should balance fracture risk versus competing mortality risk. Models have previously been constructed using Fine-Gray subdistribution methods. We used a machine learning method adapted for competing risk survival time to evaluate candidate risk factors and create models for hip fractures and competing mortality among men and women aged 80 years and older using data from three prospective cohorts (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF], Osteoporotic Fracture in Men study [MrOS], Health Aging and Body Composition study [HABC]). Random forest competing risk models were used to estimate absolute 5-year risk of hip fracture and absolute 5-year risk of competing mortality (excluding post-hip fracture deaths). Models were constructed for both outcomes simultaneously; minimal depth was used to rank and select variables for smaller models. Outcome specific models were constructed; variable importance was used to rank and select variables for inclusion in smaller random forest models. Random forest models were compared to simple Fine-Gray models with six variables selected a priori. Top variables for competing risk random forests were frailty and related components in men while top variables were age, bone mineral density (BMD) (total hip, femoral neck), and frailty components in women. In both men and women, outcome specific rankings strongly favored BMD variables for hip fracture prediction while frailty and components were strongly associated with competing mortality. Model discrimination for random forest models varied from 0.65 for mortality in women to 0.81 for hip fracture in men and depended on model choice and variables included. Random models performed slightly better than simple Fine-Gray model for prediction of competing mortality, but similarly for prediction of hip fractures. Random forests can be used to estimate risk of hip fracture and competing mortality among the oldest old. Modest gains in performance for mortality without hip fracture compared to Fine-Gray models must be weighed against increased complexity. © 2023 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Perceptions and practices of aged care pharmacists regarding osteoporosis management: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Osteoporosis is a common but sub-optimally managed disease among aged care residents. Although pharmacists are one of the key healthcare providers responsible for osteoporosis medication management there is limited research on their involvement.

AIM

This study explored the perceptions and practices of Australian pharmacists regarding osteoporosis management for aged care residents.

METHOD

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with aged care pharmacists. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and analysed using a constructivist grounded theory approach.

RESULTS

Twenty-one aged care pharmacists were interviewed. Three main themes were identified: osteoporosis is highly prevalent but given low priority, factors affecting pharmacists' management of osteoporosis, and optimism for the future role of pharmacists in osteoporosis management. The complexity of aged care residents' healthcare needs and the silent, insidious nature of osteoporosis contribute to the low priority it is afforded. Barriers identified by pharmacists included their current practice model, limited access to residents' medical histories and difficulties accessing bone mineral density (BMD) testing. Interdisciplinary collaboration and education regarding osteoporosis management were seen as facilitators. Pharmacists were optimistic that an embedded practice model would improve their capacity to influence osteoporosis management.

CONCLUSION

The high prevalence and low priority of osteoporosis in the aged care setting presents pharmacists with an opportunity to improve medication management and reduce fracture risk. Barriers to osteoporosis management identified by pharmacists can be addressed by interdisciplinary collaboration and education. Pharmacists being embedded in aged care could enable more opportunities to contribute to the interdisciplinary team and become champions of osteoporosis management.

Controversies in Osteoporosis Treatment of Nursing Home Residents

Osteoporotic fractures are a common and serious health problem for older adults living in nursing homes (NHs). Risk of fracture increases with age and dementia status, yet gaps in evidence result in controversies around when to start and stop treatment for osteoporosis in NH residents, particularly those who have high fracture risk but have limited life expectancy. In this article, we discuss these areas of controversy. We provide an overview of current guidelines that explicitly address osteoporosis treatment strategies for NH residents, review the evidence for osteoporosis medications in NH residents, and use these sources to suggest practical recommendations for clinical practice and for research. Three published guidelines (from the United States, Canada, and Australia) and several studies provide the current basis for clinical decisions about osteoporosis treatment for NH residents. Practical approaches may include broad use of vitamin D and selective use of osteoporosis medication based on risks, benefits, and goals of care. Clinicians still lack strong evidence to guide treatment of NH residents with advanced dementia, multimorbidity, or severe mobility impairment. Future priorities for research include identifying optimal approaches to risk stratification and prevention strategies for NH residents and evaluating the risk-benefit profile of pharmacologic treatments for osteoporosis NH residents across key clinical strata. In the absence of such evidence, decisions for initiating and continuing treatment should reflect a patient-centered approach that incorporates life expectancy, goals of care, and the potential burden of treatment.

Factors Associated with Falls in Canadian Long Term Care Homes: a Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Half of Canadians living in long-term care (LTC) homes will fall each year resulting in consequences to independence, quality of life, and health. The objective in this study was to analyze factors that contribute to, or are protective against, falls in Canadian LTC homes.

Methods

We analyzed of a retrospective cohort of a stratified random sample of Canadian LTC homes in Western Canada from 2011-2017. We accessed variables from the RAI-MDS 2.0 to assess the association of the dependent variable "fall within the last 31-180 days" with multiple independent factors, using generalized estimating equation models.

Results

A total of 28,878 LTC residents were analyzed. Factors found to increase the odds of falling were other fractures (OR 3.64 [95% confidence interval; CI 3.27, 4.05]), hip fractures (OR 3.58 [3.27, 3.93]), moderately impaired cognitive skills (OR 2.45 [2.28, 2.64]), partial support to balance standing (OR 2.44 [2.30, 2.57]), wandering (OR 2.31 [2.18, 2.44]).

Conclusion

A range of factors identified were associated with falls for people living in LTC homes. Individual physical ability represented the largest group of independent factors contributing to falls. Residents who experience any fracture or an acute change in behaviour, mobility, or activities of daily living (ADL) should be considered at increased risk of falls.

Psychometric characteristics of comprehensive geriatric assessments (CGAs) for long-term care facilities and community care: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Comprehensive Geriatric Assessments (CGAs) have been incorporated as an integrated care approach effective to face the challenges associated to uncoordinated care, risk of hospitalization, unmet needs, and care planning experienced in older adult care. As they assessed different dimensions, is important to inform about the content and psychometric properties to guide the decisions when selecting and implementing them in practice. This systematic review provides a comprehensive insight on the strengths and weaknesses of the CGAs used in long-term care settings and community care.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, CINAHL, and Web of Science Core Collection. Studies published up to July 13, 2021, were considered. Quality appraisal was performed for the included studies.

RESULTS

A total of 10 different CGAs were identified from 71 studies included. Three instruments were reported for long-term care settings, and seven for community care. The content was not homogenous and differed in terms of the detail and clearness of the areas being evaluated. Evidence for good to excellent validity and reliability was reported for various instruments.

CONCLUSIONS

Setting more specific and clear domains, associated to the special needs of the care setting, could improve informed decisions at the time of selecting and implementing a CGA. Considering the amount and quality of the evidence, the instrument development trajectory, the validation in different languages, and availability in different care settings, we recommend the interRAI LTCF and interRAI HC to be used for long-term facilities and community care.

Association among cognition, frailty, and falls and self‐reported incident fractures: results from the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging ( CLSA )

Cognition, frailty, and falls have been examined independently as potential correlates of fracture risk, but not simultaneously. Our objective was to explore the association between cognition, frailty, and falls and self‐reported incident fractures to determine if these factors show significant independent associations or interactions. We included participants who completed the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA) 2012–2015 baseline comprehensive assessment, did not experience any self‐reported fractures in the year prior to cohort recruitment, and completed the follow‐up questionnaire at year 3 (n = 26,982). We compared all baseline cognitive measures available in the CLSA, the Rockwood Frailty Index (FI), and presence of self‐reported falls in the past 12 months in those with versus without self‐reported incident fractures in year 3 of follow‐up. We used multivariable logistic regression adjusted for covariates and examined two‐way interactions between cognition, frailty, and prior falls. CLSA specified analytic weights were applied. The mean ± standard error (SE) age of participants was 59.5 ± 0.1 years and 52.2% were female. A total of 715 participants (2.7%) self‐reported incident fractures at 3‐year follow‐up. Participants who experienced incident fractures had similar baseline cognition scores (mean ± SE; Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test [RAVLT]: Immediate recall 6.1 ± 0.1 versus 5.9 ± 0.0; standardized difference [d] 0.124); higher FI scores (mean ± SE; FI 0.134 ± 0.005 versus 0.116 ± 0.001; d 0.193), and a greater percentage had fallen in the past 12 months (weighted n [%] 518 [7.2] versus 919 [3.5]; d 0.165). FI (each increment of 0.08) was associated with a significantly increased risk of self‐reported incident fractures in participants of all ages and those aged 65 years or older (adjusted odd ratio [OR] 1.24, 95% confidence limit [CL] 1.10–1.40; adjusted OR 1.44, 95% CL 1.11–1.52, respectively). The adjusted odds for self‐reported incident fractures in participants of all ages was also significantly associated with falls in the past 12 months prior to baseline (adjusted OR 1.83; 95% CL 1.13–2.97), but not in those aged 65 years or older. No interactions between cognition, frailty, and prior falls were found. However, considering the relatively young age of our cohort, it may be appropriate to make strong inferences in individuals older than 65 years of age. © 2022 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Strategies for the implementation of an electronic fracture risk assessment tool in long term care: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Older adults in long-term care (LTC) homes experience high rates of fractures, which are detrimental to their quality of life. The purpose of this study is to identify and make recommendations on strategies to implementing an evidence-based Fracture Risk Clinical Assessment Protocol (CAP) in LTC.

METHODS

Following the Behaviour Change Wheel framework, we conducted six focus group interviews with a total of 32 LTC stakeholders (e.g. LTC physicians) to identify barriers and facilitators, suggest implementation strategies, and discuss whether the identified strategies were affordable, practicable, effective, acceptable, safe, and if they promote equity (APEASE). The interviews were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using thematic content analysis.

RESULTS

Themes of implementation strategies that met the APEASE criteria were minimizing any increase in workload, training on CAP usage, education for residents and families, and persuasion through stories. Other strategy themes identified were culture change, resident-centred care, physical restructuring, software features, modeling in training, education for staff, social rewards, material rewards, public benchmarking, and regulations.

CONCLUSIONS

To implement the Fracture Risk CAP in LTC, we recommend using implementation strategies centred around minimizing any increase in workload, training on CAP usage, providing education for residents and families, and persuading through stories. Through improving implementation of the fracture risk CAP, results from this work will improve identification and management of LTC residents at high fracture risk and could inform the implementation of guidelines for other conditions in LTC homes.

Developing a Fracture Risk Clinical Assessment Protocol for Long-Term Care: A Modified Delphi Consensus Process

OBJECTIVES

To develop a fracture risk Clinical Assessment Protocol (CAP) based on long-term care (LTC) fracture prevention recommendations and an embedded fracture risk assessment tool.

DESIGN

A modified Delphi consensus approach including 2 survey rounds and a face-to-face meeting was implemented to reach consensus on matching of LTC fracture prevention guideline statements to Fracture Risk Scale (FRS) risk levels.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A national panel of recognized experts in osteoporosis, fractures, and long-term care, including an LTC resident and family members.

METHODS

Round 1 survey respondents (n = 24) were provided the LTC fracture prevention guidelines matched to FRS risk levels and were asked whether they agreed the guideline was appropriate for the risk level (yes, no, I don't know, I agree with some but not all of it) and to provide comments. In round 2, guideline statements that did not achieve consensus (≥80% agreement) were revised consistent with comments provided in round 1 and respondents were asked again if they agreed with the guideline statement. Statements that did not achieve consensus were to be discussed and resolved in an in-person meeting (n = 17).

RESULTS

In round 1 (75% response rate), consensus was achieved in 7/14 guideline statements. In round 2 (56% response rate), 5 statements were revised based on round 1 feedback and for 2 statements additional information was provided. Consensus was achieved in all but one statement related to the inappropriateness of pharmacologic therapy for residents with life expectancy less than 1 year. Following facilitated meeting discussions, consensus was obtained to revise the guideline statement to reflect that life expectancy was but one of several criteria that should be used to inform medication decisions.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

An evidence-based fracture risk CAP was developed that will be embedded in international routine clinical assessment tools to guide fracture prevention in LTC.

Compilation and Analysis of Web-Based Orthopedic Personalized Predictive Tools: A Scoping Review

Web-based personalized predictive tools in orthopedic surgery are becoming more widely available. Despite rising numbers of these tools, many orthopedic surgeons may not know what tools are available, how these tools were developed, and how they can be utilized. The aim of this scoping review is to compile and synthesize the profile of existing web-based orthopedic tools. We conducted two separate PubMed searches-one a broad search and the second a more targeted one involving high impact journals-with the aim of comprehensively identifying all existing tools. These articles were then screened for functional tool URLs, methods regarding the tool's creation, and general inputs and outputs required for the tool to function. We identified 57 articles, which yielded 31 unique web-based tools. These tools involved various orthopedic conditions (e.g., fractures, osteoarthritis, musculoskeletal neoplasias); interventions (e.g., fracture fixation, total joint arthroplasty); outcomes (e.g., mortality, clinical outcomes). This scoping review highlights the availability and utility of a vast array of web-based personalized predictive tools for orthopedic surgeons. Increased awareness and access to these tools may allow for better decision support, surgical planning, post-operative expectation management, and improved shared decision-making.

Factors That Predict 1-Year Incident Hip and Non-Hip Fractures for Home Care Recipients: A Linked-Data Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of our study was to identify factors that predict 1-year incident hip and major osteoporotic non-hip fractures (ie, wrist, spine, pelvis, humerus) for home care recipients while accounting for the competing risk of death.

DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective cohort study with linked population data.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

All home care recipients in Ontario, Canada, receiving services for more than 6 months with an admission assessment between April 1, 2011, and March 31, 2015, were included.

METHODS

Clinical data from the Resident Assessment Instrument Home Care were linked to fracture data from the Discharge Abstract Database and the National Acute Care Reporting System. Competing risk proportional hazard regressions using the Fine and Grey method were performed to model the association between potential risk factors and fracture.

RESULTS

Previous fall, previous fracture, cognitive impairment, unsteady gait, alcohol use, tobacco use, and Parkinson disease were consistently associated with all fracture types. Cognitive impairment (hazard ratio 2.09; 95% confidence interval 1.86-2.36) and wandering [1.66 (1.06-1.27)] were most predictive of hip fractures and being female [1.86 (1.76-1.98)] and experiencing a previous fracture [1.86 (1.76-1.98)] were most predictive of non-hip fractures. Risk factors unique to non-hip fractures as compared with hip fractures were locomotion ability outdoors and psychotropic medication use.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Our results indicate that, in addition to typical fracture risk factors, home care recipients have unique characteristics that increase their risk. Fracture risk assessment tools and subsequent prevention strategies should be modified to accurately identify home care recipients at risk for imminent 1-year fracture.

Preventing Fractures in Long-Term Care: Translating Recommendations to Clinical Practice

The Ontario Osteoporosis Strategy for long-term care (LTC) aims to support fracture risk-reduction. LTC specific recommendations for fracture prevention were developed in 2015. This article describes the use of the Knowledge-to Action framework to guide the development and application of research evidence on fracture prevention in older adults. Knowledge translation activities highlighted fractures as a significant source of morbidity in LTC, significant gaps in fracture risk assessment and treatment, and barriers and facilitators to guideline implementation. Multifaceted knowledge translation strategies, targeting staff in LTC homes in Ontario, Canada to support fracture guideline implementation have included education, audit and feedback, team-based action planning, and engagement of LTC residents, their families, and health professionals. Provincial administrative databases were accessed to monitor fracture rates between 2005 and 2015. Our research has identified enablers and barriers to knowledge use such as limited knowledge of osteoporosis, fracture risk, and prevention. Province-wide over a 10-year period, hip fracture rates in LTC decreased from 2.3% to 1.9%, and any fracture rates decreased from 4% to 3.6%. This body of work suggests that multifaceted knowledge translation initiatives are feasible to implement in LTC and can improve the uptake of clinical recommendations for fracture prevention. A key aspect of our fracture prevention knowledge translation activities has been the full engagement of key stakeholders to assist in the co-development and design of knowledge translation products.

Development and validation of the fracture risk scale home care (FRS-HC) that predicts one-year incident fracture: an electronic record-linked longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND

Fractures have dire consequences including pain, immobility, and death. People receiving home care are at higher risk for fractures than the general population. Yet, current fracture risk assessment tools require additional testing and assume a 10-year survival rate, when many die within one year. Our objectives were to develop and validate a scale that predicts one-year incident hip fracture using the home care resident assessment instrument (RAI-HC).

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study of linked population data. People receiving home care in Ontario, Canada between April 1st, 2011 and March 31st, 2015 were included. Clinical data were obtained from the RAI-HC which was linked to the Discharge Abstract Database and National Ambulatory Care Reporting System to capture one-year incident hip fractures. Seventy-five percent (n = 238,011) of the sample were randomly assigned to a derivation and 25% (n = 79,610) to a validation sample. A decision tree was created with the derivation sample using known fracture risk factors. The final nodes of the decision tree were collapsed into 8 risk levels and logistic regression was performed to determine odds of having a fracture for each level. c-Statistics were calculated to compare the discriminative properties of the full, derivation, and validation samples.

RESULTS

Approximately 60% of the sample were women and 53% were 80 years and older. A total of 11,526 (3.6%) fractures were captured over the 1-year time period. Of these, 5057 (43.9%) were hip fractures. The proportion who experienced a hip fracture in the next year ranged from 0.3% in the lowest risk level to 5.2% in the highest risk level. People in the highest risk level had 18.8 times higher odds (95% confidence interval, 14.6 to 24.3) of experiencing a hip fracture within one year than those in the lowest. c-Statistics were similar for the full (0.658), derivation (0.662), and validation (0.645) samples.

CONCLUSIONS

The FRS-HC predicts hip fracture over one year and should be used to guide clinical care planning for home care recipients at high risk for fracture. Our next steps are to develop a fracture risk clinical assessment protocol to link treatment recommendations with identified fracture risk.

Factors affecting recovery during the first 6 months after hip fracture, using the decision tree model

Pelvic fractures are one of the most common orthopedic problems that can reduce the quality of life in the elderly. In this prospective study, we found that osteoporosis, depression, and socioeconomic status were the most important factors associated with patients' recovery during the first 6 months after pelvic fracture.

PURPOSE

Hip fractures are one of the most common orthopedic problems that can reduce the quality of life in the elderly. Considering that, we aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the factors affecting recovery during the first 6 months after hip fracture.

METHODS

All patients with hip fracture admitted to any of the orthopedic hospitals during July 10, 2011 to July 9, 2012 in Shiraz, Iran were included in this prospective cohort study. Patients' demographic data and also information regarding their performance and mobility after hip fracture was collected in two interviews at intervals of 6 months. All analyses were done in R software and mostly by party packages and PCAmixdata package. Tree and forest models of conditional inference were used to evaluate the factors affecting the recovery after hip fracture.

RESULTS

Two hundred sixty-six out of 514 patients (51.75%) with hip fracture recovered completely after a 6-month follow-up period. Osteoporosis, new-onset depression after hip fracture, and socioeconomic status (SES) were the most important predictors of patients' mobility status 6 months after hip fracture. In identifying predictor variables, the conditional inference forest method provided a more appropriate fit for the data than the conditional inference tree.

CONCLUSIONS

Awareness of the factors that affect patients' recovery can be helpful in improving the patients' health, as well as improving care services, thereby increasing the success of treatment. Osteoporosis, new-onset depression after hip fracture, and SES were the most important factors associated with patients' recovery. Therefore, focusing on these variables is essential.

Predictors of imminent non-vertebral fracture in elderly women with osteoporosis, low bone mass, or a history of fracture, based on data from the population-based Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos)

Using data from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study, several risk factors predictive of imminent (2-year) risk of low-trauma non-vertebral fracture among high-risk women were identified, including history of falls, history of low-trauma fracture, poorer physical function, and lower T score. Careful consideration should be given to targeting this population for therapy.

PURPOSE

Fracture risk assessment has focused on a long-term horizon and populations with a broad risk range. For elderly women with osteoporosis or low bone mass, or a history of fragility fractures ("high-risk women"), risk prediction over a shorter horizon may have greater clinical relevance.

METHODS

A repeated-observations design and data from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study were employed. Study population comprised women aged ≥ 65 years with T score (total hip, femoral neck, spine) ≤ - 1.0 or prior fracture. Hazard ratios (HR) for predictors of low-trauma non-vertebral fracture during 2-year follow-up were estimated using multivariable shared frailty model.

RESULTS

The study population included 3228 women who contributed 5004 observations; 4.8% experienced low-trauma non-vertebral fracture during the 2-year follow-up. In bivariate analyses, important risk factors included age, back pain, history of falls, history of low-trauma fracture, physical function, health status, and total hip T score. In multivariable analyses, only four independent predictors were identified: falls in past 12 months (≥ 2 falls: HR = 1.9; 1 fall: HR = 1.5), low-trauma fracture in past 12 months (≥ 1 fracture: HR = 1.7), SF-36 physical component summary score (≤ 42.0: HR = 1.6), and total hip T score (≤ - 3.5: HR = 3.7; > - 3.5 to ≤ - 2.5: HR = 2.5; > - 2.5 to ≤ - 1: HR = 1.3).

CONCLUSIONS

Imminent risk of low-trauma non-vertebral fracture is elevated among high-risk women with a history of falls or low-trauma fracture, poorer physical function, and lower T score. Careful consideration should be given to identifying and targeting this population for therapy.

Validation of a one year fracture prediction tool for absolute hip fracture risk in long term care residents

BACKGROUND

Frail older adults living in long term care (LTC) homes have a high fracture risk, which can result in reduced quality of life, pain and death. The Fracture Risk Scale (FRS) was designed for fracture risk assessment in LTC, to optimize targeting of services in those at highest risk. This study aims to examine the construct validity and discriminative properties of the FRS in three Canadian provinces at 1-year follow up.

METHODS

LTC residents were included if they were: 1) Adults admitted to LTC homes in Ontario (ON), British Columbia (BC) and Manitoba (MB) Canada; and 2) Received a Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set Version 2.0. After admission to LTC, one-year hip fracture risk was evaluated for all the included residents using the FRS (an eight-level risk scale, level 8 represents the highest fracture risk). Multiple logistic regressions were used to determine the differences in incident hip or all clinical fractures across the provinces and FRS risk levels. We examined the differences in incident hip or all clinical fracture for each FRS level across the three provinces (adjusted for age, BMI, gender, fallers and previous fractures). We used the C-statistic to assess the discriminative properties of the FRS for each province.

RESULTS

Descriptive statistics on the LTC populations in ON (n = 29,848), BC (n = 3129), and MB (n = 2293) are: mean (SD) age 82 (10), 83 (10), and 84 (9), gender (female %) 66, 64, and 70% respectively. The incident hip fractures and all clinical fractures for FRS risk level were similar among the three provinces and ranged from 0.5 to 19.2% and 1 to 19.2% respectively. The overall discriminative properties of the FRS were similar between ON (C-statistic = 0.673), BC (C-statistic = 0.644) and MB (C-statistic = 0.649) samples.

CONCLUSION

FRS is a valid tool for identifying LTC residents at different risk levels for hip or all clinical fractures in three provinces. Having a fracture risk assessment tool that is tailored to the LTC context and embedded within the routine clinical assessment may have significant implications for policy, service delivery and care planning, and may improve care for LTC residents across Canada.