Detecting Risk Of Postural hypotension (DROP): derivation and validation of a prediction score for primary care

Machine-learning model for the prediction of acute orthostatic hypotension after levodopa administration

BACKGROUND

Levodopa could induce orthostatic hypotension (OH) in Parkinson's disease (PD) patients. Accurate prediction of acute OH post levodopa (AOHPL) is important for rational drug use in PD patients. Here, we develop and validate a prediction model of AOHPL to facilitate physicians in identifying patients at higher probability of developing AOHPL.

METHODS

The study involved 497 PD inpatients who underwent a levodopa challenge test (LCT) and the supine-to-standing test (STS) four times during LCT. Patients were divided into two groups based on whether OH occurred during levodopa effectiveness (AOHPL) or not (non-AOHPL). The dataset was randomly split into training (80%) and independent test data (20%). Several models were trained and compared for discrimination between AOHPL and non-AOHPL. Final model was evaluated on independent test data. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) values were employed to reveal how variables explain specific predictions for given observations in the independent test data.

RESULTS

We included 180 PD patients without AOHPL and 194 PD patients with AOHPL to develop and validate predictive models. Random Forest was selected as our final model as its leave-one-out cross validation performance [AUC_ROC 0.776, accuracy 73.6%, sensitivity 71.6%, specificity 75.7%] outperformed other models. The most crucial features in this predictive model were the maximal SBP drop and DBP drop of STS before medication (ΔSBP/ΔDBP). We achieved a prediction accuracy of 72% on independent test data. ΔSBP, ΔDBP, and standing mean artery pressure were the top three variables that contributed most to the predictions across all individual observations in the independent test data.

CONCLUSIONS

The validated classifier could serve as a valuable tool for clinicians, offering the probability of a patient developing AOHPL at an early stage. This supports clinical decision-making, potentially enhancing the quality of life for PD patients.

Prevalence of postural hypotension in primary, community and institutional care: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Postural hypotension (PH), the reduction in blood pressure when rising from sitting or lying 0to standing, is a risk factor for falls, cognitive decline and mortality. However, it is not often tested for in primary care. PH prevalence varies according to definition, population, care setting and measurement method. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of PH across different care settings and disease subgroups.

METHODS

Systematic review, meta-analyses and meta-regression. We searched Medline and Embase to October 2019 for studies based in primary, community or institutional care settings reporting PH prevalence. Data and study level demographics were extracted independently by two reviewers. Pooled estimates for mean PH prevalence were compared between care settings and disease subgroups using random effects meta-analyses. Predictors of PH were explored using meta-regression. Quality assessment was undertaken using an adapted Newcastle-Ottawa Scale.

RESULTS

One thousand eight hundred sixteen studies were identified; 61 contributed to analyses. Pooled prevalences for PH using the consensus definition were 17% (95% CI, 14-20%; I2 = 99%) for 34 community cohorts, 19% (15-25%; I2 = 98%) for 23 primary care cohorts and 31% (15-50%; I2 = 0%) for 3 residential care or nursing homes cohorts (P = 0.16 between groups). By condition, prevalences were 20% (16-23%; I2 = 98%) with hypertension (20 cohorts), 21% (16-26%; I2 = 92%) with diabetes (4 cohorts), 25% (18-33%; I2 = 88%) with Parkinson's disease (7 cohorts) and 29% (25-33%, I2 = 0%) with dementia (3 cohorts), compared to 14% (12-17%, I2 = 99%) without these conditions (P < 0.01 between groups). Multivariable meta-regression modelling identified increasing age and diabetes as predictors of PH (P < 0.01, P = 0.13, respectively; R2 = 36%). PH prevalence was not affected by blood pressure measurement device (P = 0.65) or sitting or supine resting position (P = 0.24), however, when the definition of PH did not fulfil the consensus description, but fell within its parameters, prevalence was underestimated (P = 0.01) irrespective of study quality (P = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

PH prevalence in populations relevant to primary care is substantial and the definition of PH used is important. Our findings emphasise the importance of considering checking for PH, particularly in vulnerable populations, to enable interventions to manage it. These data should contribute to future guidelines relevant to the detection and treatment of PH.

PROSPERO

CRD42017075423.

Addressing Orthostatic Hypotension in Heart Failure: Pathophysiology, Clinical Implications and Perspectives

Heart failure (HF)is a condition at high risk for orthostatic hypotension (OH)given the large proportion of patients at an advanced age and high burden of comorbidities contributing to OH, as well as a high prevalence of medications with neurovascular and volume modulating properties. Early identification of OH in HF seems to be crucial as OH can have an impact on patient symptoms, activity level and independence, be a marker of specific pathophysiological changes or be an indicator of need for personalized treatment. OH might contribute significantly to bad enough prognosis in HF, as, besides a risk of falls and cognitive decline, it was found to be associated with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. In this review, we aimed to incentivize the routine use of orthostatic testing in HF, as well as stimulate future research in this field, which could lead to significant advances in the treatment and outcomes.

Systolic inter-arm blood pressure difference and risk of cognitive decline in older people: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Systolic inter-arm difference in blood pressure (IAD) and cognitive decline are both associated with cardiovascular disease; therefore, it was hypothesised that IAD may be predictive of cognitive decline.

AIM

To examine associations of IAD with cognitive decline in a community population.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A prospective study of older Italian adults enrolled in the InCHIANTI study.

METHOD

Univariable and multivariable associations of IAD were explored with declines in mini mental state examination (MMSE) scores, Trail Making Test A and B scores, and a composite outcome representing substantial decline in any of these scores. Backward stepwise regression was used to adjust observed associations of IAD with cognitive decline.

RESULTS

The rate of decline for MMSE scores in 1133 participants was greater with IAD ≥5 mmHg or ≥10 mmHg. On univariable analyses continuous IAD was associated with the composite outcome (odds ratio [OR] 1.16 per 5 mmHg of IAD, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02 to 1.31). Substantial decline in MMSE score was seen with IAD ≥5 mmHg (OR 1.41, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.93), and in the composite outcome with IAD ≥5 mmHg (OR 1.44, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.89) or ≥10 mmHg (OR 1.39, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.88). After multivariable adjustment, an IAD ≥ 5 mmHg remained associated with reductions in the composite outcome, reflecting declining cognitive performance (OR 1.46, 95% CI = 1.05 to 2.03).

CONCLUSION

An IAD ≥5 mmHg is associated with cognitive decline in a representative older population. Given that systolic inter-arm differences in blood pressure are easily measured, confirmation of these findings could inform individualised treatment for the prevention of cognitive decline and dementia.

What Is the Relationship Between Orthostatic Blood Pressure and Spatiotemporal Gait in Later Life?

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Little work to date has examined the relationship between gait performance and blood pressure (BP) recovery after standing in later life. The aim of this study is to clarify the association of orthostatic BP with spatiotemporal gait parameters in a large cohort of older people.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study using multilevel linear regression to ascertain the difference in orthostatic BP patterns across tertiles of gait speed, and linear regression to analyze the association of orthostatic hypotension 30 seconds after standing (OH-30) with specific gait characteristics.

SETTING

The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 4311 community-dwelling adults, aged 50 years or older (mean age = 62.2 years; 54% female), one fifth (n = 791) of whom had OH-30.

MEASUREMENTS

Continuous orthostatic BP was measured during active stand. OH-30 was defined as a drop in systolic BP of 20 mm Hg or more or drop in diastolic BP of 10 mm Hg or more at 30 seconds. Spatiotemporal gait was assessed using the GAITRite system, reporting gait speed, step length, step width, and double support time in both single and dual (cognitive task) conditions.

RESULTS

OH-30 was associated with slower gait speed (β = -3.01; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -4.46 to -1.56) and shorter step length (β = -.73; 95% CI = -1.29 to -.16) in fully adjusted models during single task walking. Similar findings were observed in dual task conditions, in addition to increased double support phase (β = .45; 95% CI = .02-.88). Multilevel models demonstrated that participants in the slowest tertile for gait speed had a significantly larger drop in systolic BP poststanding compared to those with faster gait speeds in single and dual task conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that slower recovery of BP after standing is independently associated with poorer gait performance in community-dwelling older adults. Given the adverse outcomes independently associated with OH and gait problems in later life, increasing awareness that they commonly coexist is important, particularly as both are potentially modifiable. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:1286-1292, 2020.

Health and Functional Determinants of Orthostatic Hypotension in Geriatric Ward Patients: A Retrospective Cross Sectional Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Orthostatic hypotension (OH) is a common problem in older people. Although it is indicated that OH can be a marker of frailty there are no studies that evaluate this relationship in hospitalized patients. The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence of OH in geriatric ward patients and its association with health and functional ability characteristics and patients' frailty status.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A retrospective cross-sectional cohort study was conducted among patients aged 60 or over hospitalized in the geriatric ward.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients' medical records were analyzed and those with Active Standing Test (AST) results were included in the study.

MEASUREMENTS

Orthostatic hypotension was defined by a drop in blood pressure of at least 20mmHg for systolic blood pressure and at least 10mmHg for diastolic blood pressure within 3minutes of standing up in AST. The database included sociodemographic characteristics, nutritional, functional and cognitive state, comorbidity and medical treatment. Frailty syndrome was diagnosed with Clinical Frailty Scale. Correlations with OH were counted and multivariable logistic regression models were built.

RESULTS

416 patients were hospitalized in the study period and 353 (84.9%) were included, 78 (22.1%) men and 298 (84.4%) 75+ year-old. AST was not available in patients significantly more dependent in ADL and more frail. OH was diagnosed in 57 (16.2%) patients, significantly more frequently in men (systolic- 45,5%, systolic-diastolic- 40,0%). The significant independent predictors of OH were lower diastolic blood pressure at admittance, nutritional risk in MNA-SF, Parkinson disease, α1-blockers, neuroleptics and memantine, and not the frailty syndrome diagnosed with Clinical Frailty Scale.

CONCLUSIONS

OH affects a significant percentage of patients in the geriatric ward, although this problem may be underestimated due to limitations in the performance of AST in very frail and functionally dependent patients.

Association between Orthostatic Hypotension and Frailty in Hospitalized Older Patients: a Geriatric Syndrome More Than a Cardiovascular Condition

OBJECTIVES

To explore the association between orthostatic hypotension (OH) and frailty for hospitalized older patients and their vulnerable subgroups.

DESIGN

A prospective, observational cross-sectional study.

PARTICIPANTS

693 older patients admitted to a geriatric evaluation and management unit.

MEASUREMENTS

Barthel Index, Lawton's instrumental activities of daily living, clinical frailty scale, mini-mental state examination, geriatric depression scale, mini-nutritional assessment, and polypharmacy.

RESULTS

Overall, the prevalence of OH and frailty was 26% and 36%, respectively. Subjects with OH were older, thinner, more commonly to have weakness, slowness, poorer physical function and higher levels of frailty. The prevalence of OH was substantially increased as higher levels of CFS (p for trend <0.001). Multivariate logistic regression showed significant association between OH and frailty (OR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.2-2.7), but the association attenuated after adjustment for physical function. (OR: 1.4, 95% CI: 0.7-2.6). Nevertheless, associations between OH and frailty remained significant among vulnerable subgroups like women, subjects having weakness, slowness, poor cognitive function, polypharmacy or any IADL limitation.

CONCLUSIONS

OH in hospitalized older patients was associated with frailty and multiple complex care needs, especially in the vulnerable subgroups. Further study is needed to clarify the roles of OH in clinical practice.