Counterintuitive results from observational data: a case study and discussion

Effect of heart rate on hospital mortality in critically ill patients may be modified by age: a retrospective observational study from large database

BACKGROUND

Heart rate has been found associated with mortality in critically ill patients. However, whether the association differs between the elderly and non-elderly patients was unknown.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective observational study of adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) in the United States. Demographic, vital signs, laboratory tests, and interventions were extracted and compared between the elderly and non-elderly patients. The main exposure was heart rate, the proportion of time spent in heart rate (PTS-HR) was calculated. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The multivariable logistic regression model was performed to assess the relationship between PTS-HR and hospital mortality, and interaction between PTS-HR and age categories was explored.

RESULTS

104,276 patients were included, of which 52,378 (50.2%) were elderly patients and 51,898 (49.8%) were non-elderly patients. The median age was 66 (IQR 54-76) years. After adjusting for confounders, PTS-HR < 60 beats per minute (bpm) (OR 0.972, 95% CI [0.945, 0.998], p = 0.031, P_interaction = 0.001) and 60-80 bpm (OR 0.925, 95% CI [0.912, 0.938], p < 0.001, P_interaction = 0.553) were associated with decreased risk of mortality; PTS-HR 80-100 bpm was associated with decreased mortality in the non-elderly patients (OR 0.955, 95% CI [0.941,0.975], p < 0.001) but was associated with increased mortality in the very elderly patients (OR 1.018, 95% CI [1.003,1.029], p = 0.017, P_interaction < 0.001). PTS-HR > 100 bpm (OR 1.093, 95% CI [1.081,1.105], p < 0.001, P_interaction = 0.004) was associated with increased mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The effect of heart rate on hospital mortality differs between the elderly and non-elderly critically ill patients.