Haemoglobin concentration and survival of haemodialysis patients before and after experiencing cardiovascular disease: a cohort study from Japanese dialysis outcomes and practice pattern study (J-DOPPS)

A Novel Nomogram Based on a Competing Risk Model Predicting Cardiovascular Death Risk in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease

Objective

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients are more likely to die from cardiovascular disease (CVD) than develop renal failure. This study aimed to develop a new nomogram for predicting the risk of cardiovascular death in CKD patients.

Methods

This study enrolled 1656 CKD patients from NHANES 2003 to 2006 survey. Data sets from 2005 to 2006 survey population were used to build a nomogram for predicting the risk of cardiovascular death, and the nomogram was validated using data from 2003 to 2004 survey population. To identify the main determinants of cardiovascular death, we performed univariate analysis and backward-stepwise regression to select the key factors. The probability of cardiovascular death for each patient in 5, 7, and 9 years was calculated using a nomogram based on the predictors. To assess the nomogram’s performance, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the calibration curve with 1,000 bootstraps resamples were utilized. The prediction model’s discrimination was examined using cumulative incidence function (CIF).

Results

Age, homocysteine, potassium levels, CKD stage, and anemia were included in the nomogram after screening risk factors using univariate analysis and backward-stepwise regression. Internal validation revealed that this nomogram possesses high discrimination and calibration (AUC values of 5–, 7–, and 9-years were 0.79, 0.81, and 0.81, respectively). External validation confirmed the same findings (AUC values of 5–, 7– and 9-years were 0.76, 0.73, and 0.73, respectively). According to CIF, the established nomogram effectively differentiates patients at a high risk of cardiovascular death from those at low risk.

Conclusion

This work develops a novel nomogram that integrates age, homocysteine, potassium levels, CKD stage, and anemia and can be used to more easily predict cardiovascular death in CKD patients, highlighting its potential value in clinical application.

Utility of CHA2DS2-VASc Score to Predict Mid-Term Clinical Outcomes in Hemodialysis Patients

BACKGROUND

The CHA2DS2-VASc score has been widely used to predict stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Recently, it was reported that the CHA2DS2-VASc score helps predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) or all-cause mortality in patients with or without AF. However, few reports have examined the association between this score and mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients.

METHODS

We analyzed 557 consecutive patients who initiated HD at our facilities between February 2005 and October 2017. The CHA2DS2-VASc score was calculated at the time of initiation of HD. Patients were then categorized into three groups according to their CHA2DS2-VASc scores: 0-1 (low), 2-3 (intermediate), and 4-9 (high). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to assess independent risk factors for 3-year all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

During the 3-year follow-up period, 153 (27.5%) patients died (cardiovascular death: n = 88). According to multivariate analysis, serum albumin (hazard ratio [HR] 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43-0.85, p = 0.003), creatinine (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.84-0.99, p = 0.049), and CHA2DS2-VASc score (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.20-1.46, p < 0.001) were associated with 3-year all-cause mortality. Compared with patients in the low CHA2DS2-VASc score group, those in the intermediate- and high-score groups had a higher risk for all-cause and CVD mortality (all-cause mortality: HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.23-2.55, p = 0.002 and HR 2.94, 95% CI 1.90-4.53, p < 0.001, respectively; CVD mortality: HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.27-2.59, p = 0.001 and HR 2.85, 95% CI 1.88-4.31, p < 0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The CHA2DS2-VASc score is a valuable predictor of 3-year all-cause and CVD mortality in incident HD patients.

Predictors of Survival in Chronic Hemodialysis Patients: A 10-Year Longitudinal Follow-Up Analysis

BACKGROUND

Risk factors of mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients have not yet been sufficiently evaluated. In particular, chronological transits and interactions of the impact of risk factors have rarely been described.

METHODS

This study is a post hoc analysis of the participants in the Olme-sartan Clinical Trial in Okinawan Patients under OKIDS (OCTOPUS) study conducted between June 2006 and June 2011. We additionally followed up on the prognosis of the participants until July 31, 2018. Standardized univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the influences of the participants' baseline characteristics on all-cause mortality. We also evaluated chronological changes in the impacts of risk factors, interactions among predictors, and the influence of missing values using sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Of the 469 original trial participants, 461 participants were evaluated. The median time of follow-up was 10.2 years. A total of 211 (45.8%) participants were deceased. The leading causes of death were infection (n = 72, 34.1%) and cardiovascular disease (n = 66, 31.3%). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that the impact of diabetes mellitus, history of coronary intervention, and hypoalbuminemia were significant risk factors for mortality during the whole follow-up period. During the early follow-up period (≤3 years), standardized univariate Cox regression analyses revealed that history of amputation (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.61, p < 0.001), lower dry weight, higher cardiothoracic ratio, and lower potassium levels were statistically significant risks. In those who survived for longer than 3 years, a history of stroke (HR = 1.73, p = 0.006), higher systolic blood pressure, lower serum sodium levels, and higher levels of hemoglobin, and serum phosphate were significant risks. We also observed a stable interaction between the impacts of serum phosphate and albumin on all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSION

In chronic hemodialysis patients, targets to improve the short-term prognosis and long-term prognosis are not equivalent. Hyperphosphatemia was a significant risk factor for the all-cause mortality among patients with normal serum albumin levels but not among patients with compromised albumin levels.