Adiposity change and mortality in middle-aged to older Chinese: an 8-year follow-up of the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study

Associations of obesity indices change with cardiovascular outcomes: a dose-response meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the degrees and shapes of associations of changes in obesity indices with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality risks. We aimed to conduct a dose-response meta-analysis for the associations of changes in weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio, and waist-to-height ratio with CVD events, CVD-specific deaths, and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE via OvidSP, Embase via OvidSP, Web of Science, CINAHL, and Scopus for articles published before January 8th, 2023. Dose-response relationships were modeled using the one-stage mixed-effects meta-analysis. Random-effects models were used to pool the relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

We included 122 articles. Weight change was negatively associated with deaths from CVD and any cause, while WC change elevated CVD-specific mortality. Non-linear relationships also confirmed the adverse effects of increased WC on CVD-specific mortality. Additionally, gains of 5 kg in weight and 1 kg/m2 in BMI or more were associated with elevated CVD events, especially among young adults and individuals without CVD. Conversely, reductions of 5 kg in weight and 1 kg/m2 in BMI or more were associated with higher CVD-specific and all-cause deaths than increased counterparts, particularly among old adults and individuals with CVD. Similar non-linear relationships between relative changes in weight and BMI and deaths from CVD and any cause were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of changes in weight and BMI on CVD outcomes were affected by age and cardiovascular health. Tailored weight management and avoidance of increased WC should be recommended.

Association between weight change, waist circumference change, and the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in individuals with metabolically healthy overweight or obesity and metabolically unhealthy overweight or obesity

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to explore and compare the effect of weight change, and waist circumference (WC) change, on the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in individuals with metabolically healthy overweight or obesity (MHOW/O) and metabolically unhealthy overweight or obesity (MUOW/O) in a health check-up cohort in China.

METHODS

5625 adults with overweight or obesity, and free from NAFLD at baseline were included. Metabolically healthy was defined as not having any components of metabolic syndrome. Weight/WC changes were calculated as the relative difference between the first and second visits of check-up. NAFLD was assessed based on abdominal ultrasound.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 2.1 (IQR: 1.1-4.3) years, 1849 participants developed NAFLD. In MHOW/O participants, the multivariable adjusted HRs (95 % CIs) for NAFLD in weight change ≤ -5.0 %, and - 4.9-- 1.0 % were 0.36 (0.23-0.59), 0.59 (0.43-0.80), respectively, compared to the weight stable group (-0.9% to 0.9 %). The corresponding HRs (95 % CIs) for the association between WC change (≤ 6.0 %, - 5.9 to -3.0 %) and NAFLD in MHOW/O participants were 0.41 (0.27-0.62), and 0.74 (0.54-1.01), respectively, compared to the WC stable group (-2.9-2.9 %). Similar patterns were observed in MUOW/O participants. A more marked gradient of cumulative incidence of NAFLD across weight/WC change categories was observed in MHOW/O than in MUOW/O individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

A more evident association between weight/WC loss and risk of NAFLD was observed in MHOW/O than in MUOW/O individuals. Our findings indicate the practical significance of encouraging all individuals with overweight and obesity to achieve a clinically relevant level of weight/WC loss to prevent NAFLD, even among metabolic healthy groups.

Association of adverse childhood experiences with anemia in older Chinese: Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study

To examine the association of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) with anemia among older people. 24,116 participants aged 50 years or above were recruited. Multivariable linear and logistic regression was used to assess the associations of self-reported ACEs number with hemoglobin concentrations (g/dL) and presence of anemia. Older individuals with two or more ACEs, versus no ACEs, showed lower hemoglobin concentrations (β =  - 0.08 g/dL, 95% confidence intervals (CI) - 0.12 to - 0.03) and higher odds of anemia (odds ratio = 1.26, 95% CI 1.01-1.59). A more pronounced association between ACEs and anemia in the lower education group was found, while the association became non-significant in those with higher education (P for ACEs-education interaction = 0.02). ACEs was associated with anemia in older people, and the association was stronger in those with lower education, highlighting the significance of early-life psychological stressors assessment and consideration of education background in geriatric care.

Visceral fat and its dynamic change are associated with renal damage: Evidence from two cohorts

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To evaluate the association of Chinese visceral adiposity index (CVAI) and its dynamic trends with risk of renal damage, and to compare its prediction performance with that of other obesity indices.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A community-based population with 23 905 participants from Shantou city was included in the cross-sectional analysis. A total of 9,778 individuals from two separated cohort were included in the longitudinal portion. Five patterns of CVAI change were predefined (low-stable, decreasing, moderate, increasing, and persistent-high). Logistic and Cox regressions were used to evaluate the association between CVAI and renal damage. We explored potential mechanisms using the mediating effect method, and the prediction performance was determined by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results from both cross-sectional and longitudinal data revealed a positive and linear association between CVAI and risk of renal damage. Pooled analysis of the two cohorts showed that per unit increase in Z score of CVAI induced 18% increased risk of renal damage (P = .008). Longitudinal trends of CVAI were also associated with renal damage, and the moderate, increasing, and persistent-high patterns showing a higher risk. Blood pressure and glucose had a mediating effect on renal damage induced by CVAI. Among several obesity indices, CVAI was the optimal for predicting renal damage.

CONCLUSION

A higher level of immediate CVAI and longitudinal increasing and persistent-high patterns of CVAI were independently associated with increased risk of renal damage. Monitoring immediate level and long-term trend of CVAI may contribute to the prevention of renal damage.

Associations of Change in Body Size With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Among Healthy Older Adults

Importance

The association between weight change and subsequent cause-specific mortality among older adults is not well described. The significance of changes in waist circumference (WC) has also not been compared with weight change for this purpose.

Objective

To examine the associations of changes in body weight and WC with all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study is a post hoc analysis of data from the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized clinical trial, which recruited participants between March 1, 2010, and December 31, 2014. The study included community-based older adults (16 703 Australian participants aged ≥70 years and 2411 US participants aged ≥65 years) without evident cardiovascular disease (CVD), dementia, physical disability, or life-limiting chronic illness. Data analysis was performed from April to September 2022.

Exposures

Body weight and WC were measured at baseline and at annual visit 2. Analysis models were adjusted for baseline body mass index because height and weight were measured at baseline, allowing for calculation of body mass index and other variables. Both body weight and WC changes were categorized as change within 5% (stable), decrease by 5% to 10%, decrease by more than 10%, increase by 5% to 10%, and increase by more than 10%.

Main Outcomes and Measures

All-cause, cancer-specific, CVD-specific, and noncancer non-CVD-specific mortality. Mortality events were adjudicated by an expert review panel. Cox proportional hazards regression and competing risk analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs.

Results

Among 16 523 participants (mean [SD] age, 75.0 [4.3] years; 9193 women [55.6%]), 1256 deaths were observed over a mean (SD) of 4.4 (1.7) years. Compared with men with stable weight, those with a 5% to 10% weight loss had a 33% higher (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.07-1.66) risk of all-cause mortality, and those with more than a 10% decrease in body weight had a 289% higher (HR, 3.89; 95% CI, 2.93-5.18) risk. Compared with women with stable weight, those with a 5% to 10% weight loss had a 26% higher (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.00-1.60) risk of all-cause mortality, and those with more than a 10% decrease in body weight had a 114% higher (HR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.58-2.91) risk. Weight loss was associated with a higher cancer-specific mortality (>10% decrease among men: HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 2.26-5.40; 5%-10% decrease among women: HR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.46-2.04; >10% decrease among women: HR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.82-4.26), CVD-specific mortality (>10% decrease among men: HR, 3.14; 95% CI, 1.63-6.04; >10% decrease among women: HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.05-3.51), and noncancer non-CVD-specific mortality (>10% decrease among men: HR, 4.98; 95% CI, 3.14-7.91). A decrease in WC was also associated with mortality.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study of healthy older adults suggests that weight loss was associated with an increase in all-cause and cause-specific mortality, including an increased risk of cancer, CVD, and other life-limiting conditions. Physicians should be aware of the significance of weight loss, especially among older men.

Long-term waist circumference trajectories and body mass index with all-cause mortality in older Chinese adults: a prospective nationwide cohort study

Backgrounds

Abdominal obesity has been linked to risk of mortality, but whether and how trajectory of waist circumstance (WC) underpins this association remains unclear. The study aimed to identify long-term WC change trajectories and examine their association and joint effect with body mass index (BMI) on mortality among Chinese older adults.

Methods

This present study included participants 60 years of age or older from China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) from 1991 to 2015. The duration of follow-up was defined as period from the first to latest visit date attended with information on mortality, end of follow-up, or loss to follow-up (censoring). Latent class trajectory analysis (LCTA) was used to assess the changes of WC trajectories overtime. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence internal (CIs) for mortality.

Results

A total of 2601 participants with 8700 visits were included, and 562 mortality (21.6%) occurred during a median follow-up of 8.7 years. Using a group-based modeling approach, four distinct trajectories of WC change among Chinese older adults were identified as loss (13.5%), stable (46.8%), moderate gain (31.2%) and substantial gain (8.5%). With WC stable group as reference, the multivariable adjusted HRs for mortality were 1.34(95%CI:1.01-1.78) in loss group, 1.13(0.91-1.41) in moderate gain and 1.54(1.12-2.12) in substantial gain group. Compared with participants with normal BMI at baseline and maintained WC stable, the risk of mortality generally increased for all WC change group in initial overweight/obesity individuals, and the highest risk were observed for WC loss and stable pattern (HR:2.43, 95%CI: 1.41–4.19; HR:1.67 (1.07–2.60)).

Conclusions

In older Chinese, both long-term WC loss and substantial gain conferred excess risk for mortality. The baseline BMI might modify the effect as overweight individuals had a greater risk imposed by WC loss than those in normal weight. Maintaining stable WC and normal weight might be necessary to reduce the risk of mortality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13690-022-00861-y.

Analysis of Changes in Weight, Waist Circumference, or Both, and All-Cause Mortality in Chinese Adults

IMPORTANCE

Although numerous studies have separately investigated the associations of changes in weight or waist circumference with mortality risk, few studies have examined the associations of concurrent changes in these 2 anthropometric parameters with all-cause mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the associations of changes in body weight, waist circumference, or both, combined with all-cause mortality.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used data from 2 longitudinal cohort studies in Dongfeng-Tongji and Kailuan, China. Participants included 58 132 adults (aged 40 years and older) with measures of weight and waist circumference at baseline and follow-up visit. Statistical analysis was performed from June 2020 to September 2021.

EXPOSURES

Changes in weight and waist circumference between 2 visits (2008-2010 to 2013 in the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort, and 2006-2007 to 2010-2011 in the Kailuan study). Stable weight was defined as change in weight within 2.5 kg between the 2 visits and stable waist circumference was defined as changes within 3.0 cm. Changes were categorized as loss, stable, or gain for weight and waist circumference separately, and created a 9-category variable to represent the joint changes.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

All-cause mortality from follow-up visit (2013 in Dongfeng-Tongji cohort and 2010-2011 in Kailuan study) until December 31, 2018. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate the associations with adjustment for potential confounders. Results were obtained in the 2 cohorts separately and pooled via fixed-effect meta-analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 10 951 participants in the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort (median [IQR] age, 62 [56-66] years; 4203 [38.4%] men) and 47 181 participants in the Kailuan study (median [IQR] age, 51 [46-58] years; 36 663 [77.7%] men) were included in the analysis. During 426 072 person-years of follow-up, 4028 deaths (523 in the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort and 3505 in the Kailuan study) were documented. When changes in weight and waist circumference were examined separately, U-shape associations were found: both gain and loss in weight (weight loss: pooled hazard ratio [HR], 1.33; 95% CI, 1.23-1.43; weight gain: HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.02-1.19) or waist circumference (waist circumference loss: HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.05-1.24; waist circumference gain: HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03-1.21) were associated with higher mortality risk compared with stable weight or waist group. When changes in weight and waist circumference were jointly assessed, compared with participants with stable weight and waist circumference (16.9% of the total population [9828 of 58 132] with 508 deaths), participants with different combinations of weight and waist circumference change all had higher mortality risks except for those with stable weight but significant loss in waist. Notably, those who lost weight but gained waist circumference (6.4% of the total population [3698 of 58 132] with 308 deaths) had the highest risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.46-1.96; absolute rate difference per 100 000 person-years in the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort: 414; 95% CI, 116-819; and in the Kailuan study: 333; 95% CI, 195-492) among the joint subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, weight loss with concurrent waist circumference gain was associated with a higher mortality risk in middle-aged and older Chinese adults. This study's findings suggest the importance of evaluating the changes in both body weight and waist circumference when assessing their associations with mortality.