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Luo C, Zhang Y, Zhang J, Jin C, Ye X, Ren Y, Shen H, Chen M, Li Y, He Q, Xu G, Shao L. Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting pulmonary infection in patients receiving immunosuppressive drugs. Front Pharmacol 2024; 14:1255609. [PMID: 38293665 PMCID: PMC10825965 DOI: 10.3389/fphar.2023.1255609] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2023] [Accepted: 12/31/2023] [Indexed: 02/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Objective: Pulmonary infection (PI), a severe complication of immunosuppressive therapy, affects patients' prognosis. As part of this study, we aimed to construct a pulmonary infection prediction (PIP) model and validate it in patients receiving immunosuppressive drugs (ISDs). Methods: Totally, 7,977 patients being treated with ISDs were randomised 7:3 to the developing (n = 5,583) versus validation datasets (n = 2,394). Our predictive nomogram was established using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate COX regression analyses. With the use of the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve, the prediction performance of the final model was evaluated. Results: Among the patients taking immunosuppressive medication, PI was observed in 548 (6.9%). The median time of PI occurrence after immunosuppressive therapy was 123.0 (interquartile range: 63.0, 436.0) days. Thirteen statistically significant independent predictors (sex, age, hypertension, DM, malignant tumour, use of biologics, use of CNIs, use of methylprednisolone at 500 mg, use of methylprednisolone at 40 mg, use of methylprednisolone at 40 mg total dose, use of oral glucocorticoids, albumin level, and haemoglobin level) were screened using the LASSO algorithm and multivariate COX regression analysis. The PIP model built on these features performed reasonably well, with the developing C-index of 0.87 (sensitivity: 85.4%; specificity: 81.0%) and validation C-indices of 0.837, 0.829, 0.832 and 0.830 for predicting 90-, 180-, 270- and 360-day PI probability, respectively. The decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curves displayed excellent clinical utility and calibration performance of the nomogram. Conclusion: The PIP model presented herein could aid in the prediction of PI risk in individual patients who receive immunosuppressive treatment and help personalise clinical decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chuxuan Luo
- Department of Nephrology, Taizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province, Wenzhou Medical University, Taizhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Yue Zhang
- Urology and Nephrology Center, Department of Nephrology, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital (Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College), Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Jiajie Zhang
- Center for General Practice Medicine, Department of Infectious Diseases, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital (Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College), Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Chen Jin
- Urology and Nephrology Center, Department of Nephrology, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital (Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College), Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Xiaolan Ye
- Center for Clinical Pharmacy, Cancer Center, Department of Pharmacy, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital (Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College), Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Yan Ren
- Urology and Nephrology Center, Department of Nephrology, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital (Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College), Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Huajuan Shen
- Urology and Nephrology Center, Department of Nephrology, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital (Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College), Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Maosheng Chen
- Urology and Nephrology Center, Department of Nephrology, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital (Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College), Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Yiwen Li
- Urology and Nephrology Center, Department of Nephrology, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital (Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College), Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Qiang He
- Department of Nephrology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang Chinese Medical University (Zhejiang Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine), Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Guangbiao Xu
- Department of Nephrology, Taizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province, Wenzhou Medical University, Taizhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Lina Shao
- Urology and Nephrology Center, Department of Nephrology, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital (Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College), Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
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