Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and response on routine childhood vaccination coverage and equity in Northern Nigeria: a mixed methods study

The evolution of household forgone essential care and its determinants during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria: A longitudinal analysis

Apart from the morbidity and mortality, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has increased the predisposition of households in Nigeria to forgone care, thereby increasing their vulnerability to adverse health consequences. Since there is no previous study in Nigeria on the evolution of pandemic-related forgone care and its drivers, our study assess the evolution of the problem using descriptive and nationally representative panel data analyses. We found about a 30% prevalence of forgone care during the lockdown, which declined progressively afterwards, dropping by 69.50 percentage points between April 2020 and April 2022. This decline produced a surge in households needing care from about 35.00% in the early pandemic to greater than 50%, beginning in early 2021. The forgone care was primarily due to financial hindrances, movement restrictions, and supply-side disruptions. Household socioeconomic factors such as income loss had 2.74 [95%CI: 1.45-5.17] times higher odds of forgone care, job loss, food insecurity, and poverty were 87% (OR: 1.87 [95%CI: 1.25-2.79]), 60% (OR: 1.60 [95%CI: 1.12-2.31]) and 76% (OR: 1.76 [95%CI: 1.12-2.75]) more likely to predispose households to forgone care, respectively. Also, geographical location, such as the South-South zone, induced 1.98 [95%CI: 1.09-3.58] times higher odds of forgone care than North-Central. A married female household head increased the odds by 6.07 [95%CI: 1.72-21.47] times compared with an unmarried female head. However, having a married household head, social assistance, and North-East or North-West zone compared with North-Central increased the chance of accessing care by 69% (OR 0.31 [95%CI: 0.16-0.59]), 59%,(OR 0.41 [95%CI: 0.21-0.77]), 72% (OR 0.28 [95%CI: 0.15-0.53]) and 64% (OR 0.36 [95%CI: 0.20-0.65]), respectively. Non-communicable diseases, disability, old age, large household size and rural-urban location did not affect the forgone care. Our study highlights the need to strengthen Nigeria's health system, create policies to promote healthcare accessibility and prepare the country for future pandemic challenges.

Key Learnings from the Development and Early Use of Global Guidance on the Integration of COVID-19 Vaccination into Broader Health Systems

More than 13.5 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses were delivered between 2021 and 2023 through a mix of delivery platforms, with mass vaccination campaigns being the main approach. In 2022, with the continued circulation of SARS-CoV2 and the need for periodic boosters being most likely, countries were required to plan for more sustainable approaches to provide COVID-19 vaccinations. In this context of uncertainty, a global tool for integrating COVID-19 vaccines into immunization programs and as part of broader health systems was published jointly by the WHO and UNICEF to respond to country needs. This paper summarizes the approach to, and lessons learned during, the development of a global guidance document and describes some examples of its early use in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The guidance leveraged existing health system frameworks, proposed four steps for planning and implementing the COVID-19 vaccination integration journey, and identified investment areas. The development process maximized robust global stakeholder and country engagement, and the timeframe was aligned with donor funding windows to support countries with the integration of COVID-19 vaccination. The rapid dissemination of the guidance document allowed countries to ascertain their readiness for integrating COVID-19 vaccination and inform the development of national plans and funding applications. While progress has been made in specific areas (e.g., optimizing cold chain and logistics leveraging COVID-19 vaccination), in the context of decreasing demand for COVID-19 vaccines, reaching adult COVID-19 vaccine high-priority-use groups and engaging and coordinating with other health programs (beyond immunization) remain challenges, particularly in LMICs. We share the learning that despite the uncertainties of a pandemic, guidance documents can be developed and used within a short timeframe. Working in partnership with stakeholders within and beyond immunization towards a common objective is powerful and can allow progress to be made in terms of integrating health services and better preparing for future pandemics.

Geospatial Analyses of Recent Household Surveys to Assess Changes in the Distribution of Zero-Dose Children and Their Associated Factors before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria

The persistence of geographic inequities in vaccination coverage often evidences the presence of zero-dose and missed communities and their vulnerabilities to vaccine-preventable diseases. These inequities were exacerbated in many places during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, due to severe disruptions to vaccination services. Understanding changes in zero-dose prevalence and its associated risk factors in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic is, therefore, critical to designing effective strategies to reach vulnerable populations. Using data from nationally representative household surveys conducted before the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2018, and during the pandemic, in 2021, in Nigeria, we fitted Bayesian geostatistical models to map the distribution of three vaccination coverage indicators: receipt of the first dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (DTP1), the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1), and any of the four basic vaccines (bacilli Calmette-Guerin (BCG), oral polio vaccine (OPV0), DTP1, and MCV1), and the corresponding zero-dose estimates independently at a 1 × 1 km resolution and the district level during both time periods. We also explored changes in the factors associated with non-vaccination at the national and regional levels using multilevel logistic regression models. Our results revealed no increases in zero-dose prevalence due to the pandemic at the national level, although considerable increases were observed in a few districts. We found substantial subnational heterogeneities in vaccination coverage and zero-dose prevalence both before and during the pandemic, showing broadly similar patterns in both time periods. Areas with relatively higher zero-dose prevalence occurred mostly in the north and a few places in the south in both time periods. We also found consistent areas of low coverage and high zero-dose prevalence using all three zero-dose indicators, revealing the areas in greatest need. At the national level, risk factors related to socioeconomic/demographic status (e.g., maternal education), maternal access to and utilization of health services, and remoteness were strongly associated with the odds of being zero dose in both time periods, while those related to communication were mostly relevant before the pandemic. These associations were also supported at the regional level, but we additionally identified risk factors specific to zero-dose children in each region; for example, communication and cross-border migration in the northwest. Our findings can help guide tailored strategies to reduce zero-dose prevalence and boost coverage levels in Nigeria.