Changes in soft drinks purchased by British households associated with the UK soft drinks industry levy: a controlled interrupted time series analysis

Burdens of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages in 184 countries

The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, an updated and comprehensive assessment of the global burden attributable to SSBs remains scarce. Here we estimated SSB-attributable T2D and CVD burdens across 184 countries in 1990 and 2020 globally, regionally and nationally, incorporating data from the Global Dietary Database, jointly stratified by age, sex, educational attainment and urbanicity. In 2020, 2.2 million (95% uncertainty interval 2.0-2.3) new T2D cases and 1.2 million (95% uncertainty interval 1.1-1.3) new CVD cases were attributable to SSBs worldwide, representing 9.8% and 3.1%, respectively, of all incident cases. Globally, proportional SSB-attributable burdens were higher among men versus women, younger versus older adults, higher- versus lower-educated adults, and adults in urban versus rural areas. By world region, the highest SSB-attributable percentage burdens were in Latin America and the Caribbean (T2D: 24.4%; CVD: 11.3%) and sub-Saharan Africa (T2D: 21.5%; CVD: 10.5%). From 1990 to 2020, the largest proportional increases in SSB-attributable incident T2D and CVD cases were in sub-Saharan Africa (+8.8% and +4.4%, respectively). Our study highlights the countries and subpopulations most affected by cardiometabolic disease associated with SSB consumption, assisting in shaping effective policies and interventions to reduce these burdens globally.

How is health equity considered in policy evaluations employing quasi-experimental methods? A scoping review and content analysis

Public health researchers employ quasi-experimental methods (QEM) to evaluate the effects of policies. Whilst some policies are designed to improve (health) equity, others may intentionally or unintentionally have detrimental effects on disadvantaged populations. We thus sought to investigate how health equity is addressed in policy evaluations which employ QEM. We conducted a content analysis on studies sourced from a scoping review. We drew a random sample of 350 records identified in systematic database searches in Medline, EMBASE, and EconLit (December 2022). Studies that employed QEM labels and examined public policies implemented in the WHO European region were included. We extracted data on study design, policies, and populations; assessed whether outcomes were examined in population sub-groups (as defined by PROGRESS-Plus criteria); and analysed discussion sections for equity-related conclusions. We included 59 studies, of which 39 (66.1%) studies considered health equity-albeit to variable depth. Twenty-five studies were focused exclusively on examining policy outcomes in a disadvantaged population (42.4%), of which 19 studies evaluated policies that targeted disadvantaged groups (e.g. minimum wage, social housing policies). Outcomes were stratified for one or more sub-populations in 22 studies (37.3%), most commonly for gender (n = 15, 25.4%) and a measure of socio-economic status (n = 13, 22%), particularly income and employment. Equity-related results and implications were discussed in 24 studies. While policy evaluations employing QEM have considerable value for informing decision-making in public health and other sectors that influence health, their potential to investigate equity impacts is currently not harnessed.

The Contribution of Free Sugars to Energy Intake in Mid to Late Childhood: Comparisons Between Nutrient and Food Group Intakes and Antecedents of Diets High and Low in Free Sugars

Background/Aims: High intakes of free sugars may have negative effects on health perhaps associated with their effect on nutrient and food group intakes. The primary aim of the study was to compare nutrient and food group intakes between children with habitual high or low intakes of free sugars to identify which foods could be targeted to improve the diets of children consuming excess free sugars. The secondary aim was to assess antecedents for a child being in the high free sugars group compared with the low to identify the age at which an intervention would be most effective. Methods: The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children collected 3-day food records from children at ages 7, 10, and 13 years. Increments of 5% of energy from free sugars (%E-FS) were calculated. Two groups of children were identified: those consuming ≤15%E-FS each time (Low-FS) and those consuming >20%E-FS each time (High-FS). Their mean daily nutrient and food group intakes were compared at each age using ANOVA. Antecedents of being in these two FS groups were tested using regression models. Results: At each age, 70% of children consumed >15%E-FS with one-third >20%E-FS. Data were available for 4723 children at all three ages, and the diets of the 456 children with Low-FS intakes were compared with 330 children with High-FS intakes at each age. Energy intakes were higher in High-FS than Low-FS at each age, but protein, fat, starch, and fibre intakes were lower. Several micronutrient intakes (e.g., calcium, zinc, selenium, and retinol) were also lower. The High-FS group ate more confectionery and other sweet foods than the Low-FS group as well as six times more sugar-sweetened soft drinks (SSSD) and four times more fruit juice. However, the High-FS group consumed less bread, fat spreads, milk, and vegetables than the Low-FS group. Being in the High-FS group compared with Low-FS group was not associated with maternal education, age, or breastfeeding duration. It was more likely if the child was difficult to feed at 15 months or a picky eater in preschool years and if a dietary pattern low in nutrient-dense core foods and high in nutrient-poor discretionary foods was being consumed at 2 and/or 3 years of age. Conclusions: Children who habitually ate a High-FS diet in mid-late childhood consumed larger amounts of SSSD and fruit juice and less of some core foods than Low-FS consumers. This type of dietary pattern was already evident at 2 years of age and was associated with being a picky eater. To reduce children's intake of free sugars, support for parents to introduce a healthy balanced diet should be provided in the first 2 years of a child's life.

Impact of non-sugar sweeteners on metabolism beyond sweet taste perception

Non-sugar sweeteners (NSS), low- or no-calorie alternatives to sugar, are marketed for weight loss and improved blood glucose control in people with diabetes. However, their health effects remain controversial. This review provides a brief overview of sweet taste perception and summarizes experimental findings of the impact of NSS on cardiometabolic health in animal models and humans. We also review evidence suggesting that many NSS are not metabolically inert, highlighting the challenges in related human studies. Given the conflicting and unclear data on health outcomes, additional mechanistic studies, particularly in animal models, are necessary to clarify how NSS influence feeding behaviors and energy homoeostasis.

Modeling and empirical evidence of the impact of implementation of sugar sweetened-beverages tax to reduce non-communicable diseases prevalence: a systematic review

Introduction

The surge in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has been linked to excessive sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption. In response, the World Health Organization advocates for SSB taxes as a preventive measure. This study conducts a systematic literature review, encompassing simulation modeling and empirical evidence, to evaluate the effectiveness of SSB taxes in diminishing NCD prevalence.

Method

A systematic search from August 2002 to August 2022, utilizing databases like ScienceDirect, PubMed, Google Scholar, Wiley Online Library, Springer, and ResearchGate, identified 29 relevant articles worldwide following PRISMA 2020. The Critical Appraisal Skill Programme (CASP) 2018 tool was employed for economic evaluation.

Result

Among the selected articles, 22 utilized simulation models in group of countries such as South Africa, the US, the UK, Asia (Philippines, India, Indonesia, Thailand), Australia, and Europe (Germany), while seven were based on US and UK evidence. Simulation modeling consistently demonstrated that SSB taxes significantly reduced NCD incidence, prevalence, and mortality, also bolstering government revenue. Tax rates in simulations ranged from 10 to 25%. However, empirical evidence indicated a limited impact, primarily due to low tax rates. Notably, a UK-specific tax led to a 2.7% reduction in SSB sugar purchases and 40.2% higher purchases of no-levy drinks.

Discussion

The findings suggest that while simulation models demonstrate the potential effectiveness of SSB taxes in reducing NCDs, empirical evidence reveals there is no significant effect of the SSB tax, Based on the study conducted in this study, the SSB tax is not effective in reducing the prevalence of NCDs due to consumer preferences that have not changed. , likely due to the implementation of lower tax rates and failure to fulfill the assumption of subtitution product, physical activity, and so on. The study highlights that SSB tax is not effective in reducing the prevalence of NCDs due to consumer preference that have not change. Multi-actions are needed to support the sustainability of the implementation of the SSB tax, including education and promotion of healthy lifestyles and encouragement to reformulate SSB products by industry.

Estimated changes in free sugar consumption one year after the UK soft drinks industry levy came into force: controlled interrupted time series analysis of the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2011-2019)

BACKGROUND

The UK soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) was announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018, encouraging manufacturers to reduce the sugar content of soft drinks. This is the first study to investigate changes in individual-level consumption of free sugars in relation to the SDIL.

METHODS

We used controlled interrupted time series (2011-2019) to explore changes in the consumption of free sugars in the whole diet and from soft drinks alone 11 months after SDIL implementation in a nationally representative sample of adults (>18 years; n=7999) and children (1.5-19 years; n=7656) drawn from the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey. Estimates were based on differences between observed data and a counterfactual scenario of no SDIL announcement/implementation. Models included protein consumption (control) and accounted for autocorrelation.

RESULTS

Accounting for trends prior to the SDIL announcement, there were absolute reductions in the daily consumption of free sugars from the whole diet in children and adults of 4.8 g (95% CI 0.6 to 9.1) and 10.9 g (95% CI 7.8 to 13.9), respectively. Comparable reductions in free sugar consumption from drinks alone were 3.0 g (95% CI 0.1 to 5.8) and 5.2 g (95% CI 4.2 to 6.1). The percentage of total dietary energy from free sugars declined over the study period but was not significantly different from the counterfactual.

CONCLUSION

The SDIL led to significant reductions in dietary free sugar consumption in children and adults. Energy from free sugar as a percentage of total energy did not change relative to the counterfactual, which could be due to simultaneous reductions in total energy intake associated with reductions in dietary free sugar.

Sugar-Sweetened Beverages and Adverse Human Health Outcomes: An Umbrella Review of Meta-Analyses of Observational Studies

Our aim was to conduct an umbrella review of evidence from meta-analyses of observational studies investigating the link between sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and human health outcomes. Using predefined evidence classification criteria, we evaluated evidence from 47 meta-analyses encompassing 22,055,269 individuals. Overall, 79% of these analyses indicated direct associations between greater sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and higher risks of adverse health outcomes. Convincing evidence (class I) supported direct associations between sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and risks of depression, cardiovascular disease, nephrolithiasis, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and higher uric acid concentrations. Highly suggestive evidence (class II) supported associations with risks of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and dental caries. Out of the remaining 40 meta-analyses, 29 were graded as suggestive or weak in the strength of evidence (classes III and IV), and 11 showed no evidence (class V). These findings inform and provide support for population-based and public health strategies aimed at reducing sugary drink consumption for improved health.

Associations between the neighbourhood food environment and food and drink purchasing in England during lockdown: A repeated cross-sectional analysis

INTRODUCTION

Evidence for the effect of neighbourhood food environment (NFE) exposures on diet in the UK is mixed, potentially due to exposure misclassification. This study used the first national COVID-19 lockdown in England as an opportunity to isolate the independent effects of the NFE exposure on food and drink purchasing, and assessed whether these varied by region.

METHODS

Transaction-level purchasing data for food and drink items for at-home (1,221 households) and out-of-home consumption (171 individuals) were available from the GB Kantar Fast Moving Consumer Goods Panel for London and the North of England. The study period included 23rd March to 10th May 2020 ('lockdown'), and the same period in 2019 for comparison. NFE exposures included food outlet density and proximity, and NFE composition within a 1 km network buffer around the home. Associations were estimated for both years separately, adjusted for individual and household characteristics, population density and area deprivation. Interaction terms between region and exposures were explored.

RESULTS

There were no consistent patterns of association between NFE exposures and food and drink purchasing in either time period. In 2019, there was some evidence for a 1.4% decrease in energy purchased from ultra-processed foods for each additional 500 m in the distance to the nearest OOH outlet (IR 0.986, 95% CI 0.977 to 0.995, p = 0.020). In 2020, there was some evidence for a 1.8% reduction in total take-home energy for each additional chain supermarket per km2 in the neighbourhood (IR 0.982, 95% CI 0.969, 0.995, p = 0.045). Region-specific effects were observed in 2019 only.

DISCUSSION

Findings suggest that the differences in exposure to the NFE may not explain differences in the patterns or healthiness of grocery purchasing. Observed pre-pandemic region-specific effects allude to the importance of geographical context when designing research and policy. Future research may assess associations for those who relied on their NFE during lockdown.

Promoting Healthier Purchases: Ultraprocessed Food Taxes and Minimally Processed Foods Subsidies for the Low Income

INTRODUCTION

Fiscal policies can shift relative food prices to encourage the purchase and consumption of minimally processed foods while discouraging the purchase and consumption of unhealthy ultraprocessed foods, high in calories and nutrients of concern (sodium, sugar, and saturated fats), especially for low-income households.

METHODS

The 2017-2018 packaged food purchase data among U.S. households were used to derive household income- and composition-specific demand elasticities across 22 food and beverage categories. Policy simulations, conducted in 2022-2023, assessed the impact of national taxes on unhealthy ultraprocessed food and beverage purchases, both separately and alongside subsidies for minimally processed foods and beverages targeted to low-income households. Resultant nutritional implications are reported on the basis of changes in purchased calories and nutrients of concern. In addition, financial implications for both households and the federal government are projected.

RESULTS

A sugar-based tax on sugar-sweetened beverages would lower both volume and calories purchased with the largest impact on low-income households without children. Meanwhile, targeted subsidies would increase fruit, vegetable, and healthier drink purchases without substantially increasing calories. Under tax simulations, low-income households would make larger reductions in their absolute volume and calorie purchases of taxed foods and beverages than their higher-income counterparts, suggesting that these policies, if implemented, could help narrow nutritional disparities.

CONCLUSIONS

Levying national taxes on unhealthy ultraprocessed foods/beverages and offering targeted subsidies for minimally processed foods/beverages could promote healthier food choices among low-income households. Such policies have the potential to benefit low-income households financially and at a relatively low cost for the federal government annually.

Substituting Low-Calorie Sweetened Beverages for Sugar-Sweetened Beverages to Prevent Obesity and Cardiometabolic Diseases: Still a Good Idea?

Low-calorie sweeteners (LCSs) and LCS-containing beverages have been proposed as appropriate substitutes for caloric sugars in recent years. In this Perspective, we highlight the recent findings from observational and interventional studies, focusing on obesity, gut microbiome, and cardiometabolic health. We provide public health actors and health care professionals with an insightful overview of recent evidence to bridge the gap between research and practice.

Impact of the UK soft drinks industry levy on health and health inequalities in children and adolescents in England: An interrupted time series analysis and population health modelling study

BACKGROUND

The soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) in the United Kingdom has led to a significant reduction in household purchasing of sugar in drinks. In this study, we examined the potential medium- and long-term implications for health and health inequalities among children and adolescents in England.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis to measure the effects of the SDIL on the amount of sugar per household per week from soft drinks purchased, 19 months post implementation and by index of multiple deprivation (IMD) quintile in England. We modelled the effect of observed sugar reduction on body mass index (BMI), dental caries, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in children and adolescents (0 to 17 years) by IMD quintile over the first 10 years following announcement (March 2016) and implementation (April 2018) of the SDIL. Using a lifetable model, we simulated the potential long-term impact of these changes on life expectancy for the current birth cohort and, using regression models with results from the IMD-specific lifetable models, we calculated the impact of the SDIL on the slope index of inequality (SII) in life expectancy. The SDIL was found to have reduced sugar from purchased drinks in England by 15 g/household/week (95% confidence interval: -10.3 to -19.7). The model predicts these reductions in sugar will lead to 3,600 (95% uncertainty interval: 946 to 6,330) fewer dental caries and 64,100 (54,400 to 73,400) fewer children and adolescents classified as overweight or obese, in the first 10 years after implementation. The changes in sugar purchasing and predicted impacts on health are largest for children and adolescents in the most deprived areas (Q1: 11,000 QALYs [8,370 to 14,100] and Q2: 7,760 QALYs [5,730 to 9,970]), while children and adolescents in less deprived areas will likely experience much smaller simulated effects (Q3: -1,830 QALYs [-3,260 to -501], Q4: 652 QALYs [-336 to 1,680], Q5: 1,860 QALYs [929 to 2,890]). If the simulated effects of the SDIL are sustained over the life course, it is predicted there will be a small but significant reduction in slope index of inequality: 0.76% (95% uncertainty interval: -0.9 to -0.62) for females and 0.94% (-1.1 to -0.76) for males.

CONCLUSIONS

We predict that the SDIL will lead to medium-term reductions in dental caries and overweight/obesity, and long-term improvements in life expectancy, with the greatest benefits projected for children and adolescents from more deprived areas. This study provides evidence that the SDIL could narrow health inequalities for children and adolescents in England.

Systematic review on fiscal policy interventions in nutrition

Introduction

Both the World Health Organization and the Lancet Series on Adolescent nutrition recommend that governments adopt fiscal policies to combat diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). However, rigorous, systematic evidence regarding the effects of these interventions is lacking.

Methods

We synthesize the available evidence regarding the impacts of taxes and subsidies that directly affect consumer prices on availability and accessibility of foods and beverages, purchasing behavior, diet quality, health and well-being outcomes as well as considerations for implementation, sustainability and equity.

Results

Our initial search returned 2,113 de-duplicated studies, and ultimately 24 impact evaluations and two systematic reviews met final eligibility criteria and represented unique evaluations. Our meta-analysis of these studies suggests that taxes may decrease purchases of taxed beverages (SMD = -0.14 [95% CI: -0.29 to -0.07], n = 15). Results should be interpreted cautiously due to considerable heterogeneity (Q(14) = 335.19, p = 0.01,τ ^ 2 = 0.03 , I 2 = 95.82%).

Discussion

The evidence base is too limited to draw conclusions about the effects of taxes on beverages and calorie-dense foods on purchases, or on the effects of subsidies on purchasing or diet quality. Overall, the evidence base is inconclusive on whether fiscal policies can meaningfully influence the availability and accessibility of foods and beverages, diet quality, and health outcomes. Policymakers implementing fiscal policies should consider information campaigns on health benefits and health risks associated with certain food and beverage consumption. For taxes, exposure to health information may amplify signaling effects of taxes and reduce avoidance behaviors, such as cross-border shopping. Future evaluations should diversify data sources to better understand impacts on diet and health outcomes.