Predictors of extubation success: a population-based study of neonates below a gestational age of 26 weeks

Predictive model development for premature infant extubation outcomes: development and analysis

BACKGROUND

Given the knowledge of the damage caused by prolonged invasive mechanical ventilation in premature newborns, withdrawing this support as quickly as possible is important to minimize morbidity. The aim of this study was to analyze the variables associated with extubation outcomes and to develop a predictive model for successful extubation in premature newborns.

METHODS

Data were obtained from a multicenter study involving six public maternity hospitals. The variables with the highest correlation to the extubation outcome were used to construct the predictive model through data analysis and machine learning methods, followed by training and testing of algorithms.

RESULTS

Data were collected from 405 premature newborns. The predictive model with the best metrics was trained and tested using the variables of gestational age, birth weight, weight at extubation, congenital infections, and time on invasive mechanical ventilation, based on 393 samples according to the extubation outcome (12 were discarded due to irretrievable missing data in important attributes). The model exhibited an accuracy of 77.78%, sensitivity of 79.41%, and specificity of 60%.

CONCLUSION

These variables generated a predictive model capable of estimating the probability of successful extubation in premature newborns.

IMPACT

Prolonged use of invasive mechanical ventilation in preterm newborns increases morbidity/mortality rates, emphasizing the importance of early withdrawal from invasive ventilatory support. However, the decision to extubate lacks tools with higher extubation outcome precision. The use of artificial intelligence through the construction of a predictive model can assist in the decision-making process for extubating preterm newborns based on real-world data. The implementation of this tool can optimize the decision to extubate preterm newborns, promoting successful extubation and reducing preterm newborns exposure to adverse events associated with extubation failure.

Peri-extubation settings in preterm neonates: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review: 1) peri-extubation settings; and 2) association between peri-extubation settings and outcomes in preterm neonates.

STUDY DESIGN

In this systematic review, studies were eligible if they reported patient-data on peri-extubation settings (objective 1) and/or evaluated peri-extubation levels in relation to clinical outcomes (objective 2). Data were meta-analyzed when appropriate using random-effects model.

RESULTS

Of 9681 titles, 376 full-texts were reviewed and 101 included. The pooled means of peri-extubation settings were summarized. For objective 2, three experimental studies were identified comparing post-extubation CPAP levels. Meta-analyses revealed lower odds for treatment failure [pooled OR 0.46 (95% CI 0.27-0.76); 3 studies, 255 participants] but not for re-intubation [pooled OR 0.66 (0.22-1.97); 3 studies, 255 participants] with higher vs. lower CPAP.

CONCLUSIONS

Summary of peri-extubation settings may guide clinicians in their own practices. Higher CPAP levels may reduce extubation failure, but more data on peri-extubation settings that optimize outcomes are needed.

Predictors of successful extubation from volume-targeted ventilation in extremely preterm neonates

OBJECTIVE

To identify variables associated with extubation success in extremely preterm neonates extubated from invasive volume-targeted ventilation.

STUDY DESIGN

We retrospectively evaluated 84 neonates ≤28 weeks' gestational age, on their first elective extubation. The primary outcome of successful extubation was defined as non-reintubation within seven days. We used multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 58 (69%) neonates (mean gestational age of 26.5 ± 1.4 weeks, birthweight 921 ± 217 g) who met the primary outcome. Female sex (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-9.10), higher pre-extubation weight (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.05-1.59), and pH (OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.54-4.19), and lower pre-extubation mean airway pressure (MAP) (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.33-0.73) were associated with successful extubation.

CONCLUSIONS

In preterm neonates, female sex, higher pre-extubation weight and pH, and lower pre-extubation MAP were predictors of successful extubation from volume-targeted ventilation. Evaluation of these variables will likely assist clinicians in selecting the optimal time for extubation in such vulnerable neonates.

Predictors of extubation failure in newborns: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Extubation failure (EF) is a significant concern in mechanically ventilated newborns, and predicting its occurrence is an ongoing area of research. To investigate the predictors of EF in newborns undergoing planned extubation, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis. A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Library for studies published in English from the inception of each database to March 2023. The PRISMA guidelines were followed in all phases of this systematic review. The Risk of Bias Assessment for Nonrandomized Studies tool was used to assess methodological quality. Thirty-four studies were included, 10 of which were overall low risk of bias, 15 of moderate risk of bias, and 9 of high risk of bias. The studies reported 43 possible predictors in six broad categories (intrinsic factors; maternal factors; diseases and adverse conditions of the newborn; treatment of the newborn; characteristics before and after extubation; and clinical scores and composite indicators). Through a qualitative synthesis of 43 predictors and a quantitative meta-analysis of 19 factors, we identified five definite factors, eight possible factors, and 22 unclear factors related to EF. Definite factors included gestational age, sepsis, pre-extubation pH, pre-extubation FiO2, and respiratory severity score. Possible factors included age at extubation, anemia, inotropic use, mean airway pressure, pre-extubation PCO2, mechanical ventilation duration, Apgar score, and spontaneous breathing trial. With only a few high-quality studies currently available, well-designed and more extensive prospective studies investigating the predictors affecting EF are still needed. In the future, it will be important to explore the possibility of combining multiple predictors or assessment tools to enhance the accuracy of predicting extubation outcomes in clinical practice.

Optimal timing of extubation in preterm infants

In neonatal intensive care, endotracheal intubation is usually performed as an urgent or semi-urgent procedure in infants with critical or unstable conditions related to progressive respiratory failure. Extubation is not. Patients undergoing extubation are typically stable, with improved respiratory function. The key elements to facilitating extubation are to recognize improvement in respiratory status, promote weaning of mechanical ventilation, and accurately identify readiness for removal of the endotracheal tube. Therefore, extubation should be a planned and well-organized procedure. In this review, we will appraise the evidence for existing predictors of extubation readiness and provide patient-specific, pathophysiology-derived strategies to optimize the timing and success of extubation in neonates, with a focus on extremely preterm infants.

Long-term non-invasive ventilation in children: Transition from hospital to home

Long-term non-invasive ventilation (NIV) is an accepted therapy for sleep-related respiratory disorders and respiratory insufficiency or failure. Increase in the use of long-term NIV may, in part, be driven by an increase in the number of children surviving critical illness with comorbidities. As a result, some children start on long-term NIV as part of transitioning from hospital to home. NIV may be used in acute illness to avoid intubation, facilitate extubation or support tracheostomy decannulation, and to avoid the need for a tracheostomy for long-term invasive ventilation. The decision about whether long-term NIV is appropriate for an individual child and their family needs to be made with care. Preparing for transition from the hospital to home involves understanding how NIV equipment is obtained and set-up, education and training for parents/caregivers, and arranging a plan for clinical follow-up. While planning for these transitions is challenging, the goals of a shorter time in hospital and a child living well at home with their family are important.

A Nomogram for Predicting Extubation Failure in Preterm Infants with Gestational Age Less than 29 Weeks

INTRODUCTION

How to avoid reintubations in prematurity remains a hard nut. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting extubation failure in preterm infants who received different modes of noninvasive ventilation as post-extubation support.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of pre-existing data from a large multicenter RCT combined with a multicenter retrospective investigation in three tertiary referral NICUs in China. The training cohort consisted of extubated infants from the RCT and the validation cohort included neonates admitted to the three NICUs in the last 5 years. The nomogram was developed through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses of peri-extubation clinical variables.

RESULTS

A total of 432 and 183 preterm infants (25 weeks ≤ gestational age [GA] <29 weeks) were, respectively, included in the training cohort and the validation cohort. Lower birth weight, lower Apgar 5-min score, lower postmenstrual age at extubation, lower PO2 and higher PCO2 before extubation, and continuous positive airway pressure rather than nasal intermittent positive pressure ventilation or noninvasive high-frequency oscillatory ventilation after extubation were associated with higher risks of extubation failure (p < 0.05), on which the nomogram was established. In both the training cohort and the validation cohort, the nomogram demonstrated good predictive accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.744 and 0.826); the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p = 0.192 and 0.401) and the calibration curve (R2 = 0.195 and 0.307) proved a good fitness and conformity; and the decision curve analysis showed significant net benefit at the best threshold (p = 0.201).

CONCLUSION

This nomogram could serve as a good decision-support tool when predicting extubation failure in preterm infants with GA less than 29 weeks.

Associations between unit workloads and outcomes of first extubation attempts in extremely premature infants below a gestational age of 26 weeks

Objective

The objective was to explore whether high workloads in neonatal intensive care units were associated with short-term respiratory outcomes of extremely premature (EP) infants born <26 weeks of gestational age.

Methods

This was a population-based study using data from the Norwegian Neonatal Network supplemented by data extracted from the medical records of EP infants <26 weeks GA born from 2013 to 2018. To describe the unit workloads, measurements of daily patient volume and unit acuity at each NICU were used. The effect of weekend and summer holiday was also explored.

Results

We analyzed 316 first planned extubation attempts. There were no associations between unit workloads and the duration of mechanical ventilation until each infant's first extubation or the outcomes of these attempts. Additionally, there were no weekend or summer holiday effects on the outcomes explored. Workloads did not affect the causes of reintubation for infants who failed their first extubation attempt.

Conclusion

Our finding that there was no association between the organizational factors explored and short-term respiratory outcomes can be interpreted as indicating resilience in Norwegian neonatal intensive care units.