Post-test probability that men in the community with raised plasma ferritin concentrations are hazardous drinkers

Negative serum carcinoembryonic antigen has insufficient accuracy for excluding recurrence from patients with Dukes C colorectal cancer: analysis with likelihood ratio and posttest probability in a follow-up study

PURPOSE

This study was designed to determine the efficacy of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) monitoring for screening patients with colorectal cancer by using posttest probability of recurrence.

METHODS

For this study, 348 (preoperative serum CEA level elevated: CEA+, n = 119; or normal: CEA-, n = 229) patients who had undergone potentially curative surgery for colorectal cancer were enrolled. After five-year follow-up with measurements of serum CEA levels and imaging workup, posttest probabilities of recurrence were calculated.

RESULTS

Recurrence was observed in 39 percent of CEA+ patients and 30 percent in CEA- patients, and CEA levels were elevated in 33.3 percent of CEA+ patients and 17.5 percent of CEA- patients. With obtained sensitivity (68.4 percent, CEA+; 41 percent, CEA-), specificity (83 percent, CEA+; 91 percent, CEA-) and likelihood ratio (test positive: 4.0, CEA+; 4.4, CEA-; and test negative: 0.38, CEA+; 0.66, CEA-), posttest probability given the presence of CEA elevation in the CEA+ and CEA- was 72.2 and 65.5 percent, respectively, and that given the absence of CEA elevation was 20 and 22.2 percent, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Whereas postoperative CEA elevation indicates recurrence with high probability, a normal postoperative CEA is not useful for excluding the probability of recurrence.

Cytokine signatures in atherosclerotic claudicants

BACKGROUND

Iron accumulation and inflammation may affect atherosclerosis. This study intended to define a cytokine signature in atherosclerotic claudicants and to determine whether reduction in serum ferritin by phlebotomy influenced this pattern.

METHODS

Ninety-one subjects with peripheral vascular disease (PVD; mean age, 67 years) were recruited from the VA Cooperative Iron and Atherosclerosis Study (FeAST) testing the hypothesis that ferritin reduction to 25 ng/ml may ameliorate atherosclerosis. Cytokines TNF-a, IL-2, IL-6, and IL-10 were analyzed by enzyme amplified sensitivity assay (EASIA). Fasting iron and cholesterol panels, complete blood count, C-reactive protein (CRP), uric acid, fibrinogen, glucose, and hemoglobin A1c levels were also quantified. Values were compared with "healthy" controls (n = 21; mean age, 56 years). After randomization of PVD to phlebotomy (intervention group [IG], n = 44) or control (nonintervention group [NG], n = 47), analyses were compared at 6 and 12 months using t test, Wilcoxon rank sum test, chi-square, and robust MM regression.

FINDINGS

Age, glucose, and hemoglobin A1c were higher in PVD compared with healthy controls (P < 0.01), whereas serum iron (P < 0.01) and percentage of transferrin saturation (P < 0.05) were lower. Tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha; P < 0.05), IL-6 (P < 0.01), and CRP (P < 0.05) levels were higher in the PVD group, whereas IL-10 was lower (P < 0.01). At 6 months post phlebotomy, ferritin levels were reduced (P < 0.01), although ferritin levels were reduced less in smokers. IL-6 and fibrinogen, CRP and ferritin levels correlated positively. At 6 and 12 months, subjects with TNF-alpha (n= 15) and IL-6 (n = 10) levels in the upper 25th percentile were reduced by phlebotomy.

INTERPRETATION

An inflammatory cytokine signature exists in atherosclerosis. Elevated levels of TNF-alpha and IL-6, reportedly associated with recurrent and future myocardial infarction, were reduced by phlebotomy. The utility of the iron/inflammatory hypotheses will ultimately relate to clinical outcomes obtained prospectively by the FeAST trial.