The impact of monetary incentives on general fertility rates in Western Australia

The effect of gradually lifting the two-child policy on demographic changes in China

Low-fertility rate has been a common problem in many industrialized countries. To reverse the declining trend of new births, Chinese government gradually lifted its restrictions on the number of births per family, allowing for a household to have no more than two children. Little is known about the additional births or population increase contributed by the gradual relaxation of birth restrictions. To fill this gap, this quasi-experimental design study including data from 124 regions used the synthetic control method and controlled interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the differences in birth rates and rates of natural population increase between China and its synthetic control following implementation of the two-child policy from 2011 to 2020. A total of 123 regions were included in the control pool. Data collected during 1990-2010 were used to identify the synthetic China for each study outcome. The mean rate differences of birth rates and rates of natural increase between China and synthetic China after two-child policy implementation were 1.16 per 1000 population and 1.02 per 1000, respectively. These rate differences were distinguished from variation due to chance (one-sided pseudo-P-values: P for birth rates = 0.047, P for rates of natural increase = 0.020). However, there were statistically significant annual reductions in the pre-post trend of birth rates and rates of natural increase compared with those of controls of <0.340 per 1000 population per year [P = 0.007, 95% CI = (-0.584, -0.096)] and <0.274 per 1000 per year [P = 0.028, 95% CI = (-0.518, -0.031)]. The results suggested that lifting birth restrictions had a short-term effect on the increase in birth rates and rates of natural population increase. However, birth policy with lifting birth restrictions alone may not have sustained impact on population growth in the long run.

Effects of incentive-based population policies on sustainability of China's recent maternity insurance system reform: a system dynamics simulation

BACKGROUND

This paper seeks to assess the sustainability of the reformed maternity insurance system and the extent to which China's current maternity insurance system can support different levels of fertility incentives in the future. Our findings will serve as a reference for countries in a similar demographic predicament and those about to face it.

METHODS

This study used a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. In the qualitative assessment, we used a grounded theory model to generalize the factors influencing the sustainability of maternity insurance funds. For the quantitative analysis, we used a novel and comprehensive system dynamics model to visualize the status of the combined operation of maternity and health insurance. Data are mainly derived from the historical data of the Statistical Yearbook of Jiangsu Province and the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

RESULTS

In the short term, fertility incentive payments can be set to motivate people to have children. It is therefore recommended that when the scope of the fertility incentive policy is limited to two children, and an average amount above RMB 10 000 could be set, it would be prudent to set the amount at a level not exceeding RMB 10 000 when the scope of the fertility incentive policy is for all newborns. In the long term, a system of incentives for childbirth should be built from education policy, house price regulation, tax relief and childcare services.

CONCLUSION

Our research not only highlights the significance of improving the resilience of maternity insurance by combining maternity insurance and health insurance funds, but also suggests a way to economically incentivize beneficiaries to have children so as to mitigate the decline in China's birth rate and cope with the crisis of an ageing population.

The Tasmanian Conception to Community (C2C) Study Database 2008-09 to 2013-14: Using linked health administrative data to address each piece in the puzzle

BACKGROUND

Tasmania, Australia has a small widely dispersed regional and rural population. The Conception to Community (C2C) Study Database was established as a research platform to inform service planning and policy development and improve health outcomes for Tasmanian mothers and children. The aims of this study were to establish by maternal socio-demographic characteristics: 1) the distribution of births in Tasmania; 2) hospital utilisation for children from birth to 5-years; and 3) the association between child and maternal emergency department (ED) presentation rates.

METHODS

Perinatal and public hospital ED and admitted patient data were linked for every child born in Tasmania between 2008-09 to 2013-14, and their mothers. Individualised rates of ED presentations and hospital admissions were calculated from birth to 5-years. Frequent presenters to ED were defined as having at least four presentations per annum. Ratios of ED presentation and hospital admission rates by sociodemographic characteristics (region (north, north-west, south), rurality, maternal age, and area socioeconomic disadvantage) were estimated using mixed-effects negative binomial models, with random intercepts for each child and family.

RESULTS

The C2C Database is comprised of records for 37,041 children and 27,532 mothers. One-in-ten Tasmanian babies lived in a remote area. The mean yearly rate of ED presentations per child varied by sex, age, region and rurality. Frequent presenters were more likely to reside in the north-west or north, in urban areas, have mothers under 20- years, be male, and live in more disadvantaged areas, with 2.3% of children frequent presenters in their first year of life. The odds of a child being a frequent presenter during their first-year was 6.1- times higher if the mother was a frequent presenter during this period.

CONCLUSION

Associations between maternal and child health service use and combined effects of regionality and rurality highlight opportunities for targeted intervention and service innovations.

Non spontaneous vaginal delivery was associated with lower probability of subsequent fertility

OBJECTIVE

Previous systematic reviews have reported that cesarean birth is associated with reduced rate of subsequent fertility. However, other common mode of delivery was poorly understood. The aim of this study was to systematically investigate the subsequent fertility in patients having different modes of non-spontaneous vaginal delivery, if compared to normal vaginal delivery.

STUDY DESIGNS

Medline (via PubMed), Web of Science, Embase (via Dialog), CENTRAL (via Cochrane Library), ScienceDirect (via Elsevier) and ClinicalTrial.gov were searched up to October 2019, without language restrictions in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Articles assessing the mode of delivery and subsequent fertility were included. Quality assessment was evaluated using the nine-point Newcastle Ottawa Scale by two independent reviewers.

RESULTS

Twenty-one articles, including 4,423,544 women of reproductive age, were included. Results showed that women had a 9% (RR: 0.91 [95 %CI 0.88, 0.94]) lower probability of subsequent fertility in primary cesarean birth group, compared with spontaneous vaginal delivery. Further analysis discovered that a 13 % (0.87, [0.85, 0.90]) lower probability of subsequent fertility was observed in women delivered by emergency cesarean birth, a 14 % (0.86, [0.82, 0.91) lower probability by elective cesarean birth, a 39 % (0.61, [0.57, 0.66]) by maternal-requested cesarean birth, and a 2% (0.98, [0.97, 1.00]) by instrumental vaginal delivery.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-spontaneous vaginal delivery may be associated with lower probability of subsequent fertility. Decision makers and obstetricians should be cautious when choosing the mode of delivery.

Use of assisted reproductive technologies before and after the Artificial Reproduction Act in Taiwan

Background

Low birth rates and infertility are growing concerns for many countries. The Artificial Reproduction Act (ARA) was implemented in 2007 to better support the use of assisted reproductive technology (ART) in Taiwan. This study aims to examine trends in the use of ART and to determine impacts of the ARA on ART use.

Method

This study used data from the Health Promotion Administration in Taiwan. We used auto-regression models to examine the recent trends (1998–2017) in fertility related indicators and the use of ART. An interrupted time series design and segmented linear regression models were applied to analyze the changes in number of ART treatment cycles and birth rates by ART following the ARA.

Results

The number of births by ART has gradually increased, with an annual growth rate of 21.55%. The rate of births by ART increased from 0.86% in 1998 to 1.44% in 2007, and to 4.33% in 2016 (annual growth rate: 41.23%). We estimated a relative increase of 78.51% (95%CI: 46.13%, 110.90%) in the number of births by ART and a relative increase of 35.67% (95%CI: 18.87%, 52.47%) in rate of births by ART 5 years following the ARA was implemented.

Conclusion

ART has been seen as an approach to improve fertility. Our analysis suggests that the ART use and births associated from ART use both increased in Taiwan following the implementation of ARA. This experience in Taiwan may offer important lessons for other countries that are facing low fertility challenges.

A new method of identifying target groups for pronatalist policy applied to Australia

A country’s total fertility rate (TFR) depends on many factors. Attributing changes in TFR to changes of policy is difficult, as they could easily be correlated with changes in the unmeasured drivers of TFR. A case in point is Australia where both pronatalist effort and TFR increased in lock step from 2001 to 2008 and then decreased. The global financial crisis or other unobserved confounders might explain both the reducing TFR and pronatalist incentives after 2008. Therefore, it is difficult to estimate causal effects of policy using econometric techniques. The aim of this study is to instead look at the structure of the population to identify which subgroups most influence TFR. Specifically, we build a stochastic model relating TFR to the fertility rates of various subgroups and calculate elasticity of TFR with respect to each rate. For each subgroup, the ratio of its elasticity to its group size is used to evaluate the subgroup’s potential cost effectiveness as a pronatalist target. In addition, we measure the historical stability of group fertility rates, which measures propensity to change. Groups with a high effectiveness ratio and also high propensity to change are natural policy targets. We applied this new method to Australian data on fertility rates broken down by parity, age and marital status. The results show that targeting parity 3+ is more cost-effective than lower parities. This study contributes to the literature on pronatalist policies by investigating the targeting of policies, and generates important implications for formulating cost-effective policies.

An RCT protocol of varying financial incentive amounts for smoking cessation among pregnant women

Background

Smoking during pregnancy is harmful to the unborn child. Few smoking cessation interventions have been successfully incorporated into standard antenatal care. The main aim of this study is to determine the feasibility of a personal financial incentive scheme for encouraging smoking cessation among pregnant women.

Design

A pilot randomised control trial will be conducted to assess the feasibility and potential effectiveness of two varying financial incentives that increase incrementally in magnitude ($20 vs. $40AUD), compared to no incentive in reducing smoking in pregnant women attending an Australian public hospital antenatal clinic.

Method

Ninety (90) pregnant women who self-report smoking in the last 7 days and whose smoking status is biochemically verified, will be block randomised into one of three groups: a. No incentive control group (n=30), b. $20 incremental incentive group (n=30), and c. $40 incremental incentive group (n=30). Smoking status will be assessed via a self-report computer based survey in nine study sessions with saliva cotinine analysis used as biochemical validation. Women in the two incentive groups will be eligible to receive a cash reward at each of eight measurement points during pregnancy if 7-day smoking cessation is achieved. Cash rewards will increase incrementally for each period of smoking abstinence.

Discussion

Identifying strategies that are effective in reducing the number of women smoking during pregnancy and are easily adopted into standard antenatal practice is of utmost importance. A personal financial incentive scheme is a potential antenatal smoking cessation strategy that warrants further investigation.

Trial registration

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) number: ACTRN12612000399897

The Australian baby bonus maternity payment and birth characteristics in Western Australia

Background

The Australian baby bonus maternity payment introduced in 2004 has been reported to have successfully increased fertility rates in Australia. We aimed to investigate the influence of the baby bonus on maternal demographics and birth characteristics in Western Australia (WA).

Methods and Findings

This study included 200,659 birth admissions from WA during 2001–2008, identified from administrative birth and hospital data-systems held by the WA Department of Health. We estimated average quarterly birth rates after the baby bonus introduction and compared them with expected rates had the policy not occurred. Rate and percentage differences (including 95% confidence intervals) were estimated separately by maternal demographics and birth characteristics. WA birth rates increased by 12.8% following the baby bonus implementation with the greatest increase being in mothers aged 20–24 years (26.3%, 95%CI = 22.0,30.6), mothers having their third (1.6%, 95%CI = 0.9,2.4) or fourth child (2.2%, 95%CI = 2.1,2.4), mothers living in outer regional and remote areas (32.4%, 95%CI = 30.2,34.6), mothers giving birth as public patients (1.5%, 95%CI = 1.3,1.8), and mothers giving birth in public hospitals (3.5%, 95%CI = 2.6,4.5). Interestingly, births to private patients (−4.3%, 95%CI = −4.8,−3.7) and births in private hospitals (−6.3%, 95%CI = −6.8,−5.8) decreased following the policy implementation.

Conclusions

The introduction of the baby bonus maternity payment may have served as an incentive for women in their early twenties and mothers having their third or fourth child and may have contributed to the ongoing pressure and staff shortages in Australian public hospitals, particularly those in outer regional and remote areas.