A new predictor of atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass graft surgery: HATCH score

Factors predicting the recurrence of atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation: A review

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common and clinically significant type of cardiac arrhythmia. Although catheter ablation (CA) can restore sinus rhythm in patients with AF, some patients experience recurrence after the procedure. This requires us to find a simple and effective way to identify patients at a high risk of recurrence and to intervene early in the high-risk population to improve patient prognosis. The mechanism of AF recurrence is unclear, but it involves several aspects including patient history, inflammation, myocardial fibrosis, and genes. This article summarizes the current predictors of AF recurrence after CA, including myocardial fibrosis markers, inflammatory markers, MicroRNAs, Circular RNAs, AF recurrence scores, and imaging indicators. Each predictor has its own scope of application, and the predictive capacity and joint application of multiple predictors may improve the predictive power. In addition, we summarize the mechanisms involved in AF recurrence. We hope that this review will assist researchers understand the current predictors of AF recurrence and help them conduct further related studies.

Scores predicting atrial fibrillation after mitral valve surgery: Do we need a more specific score?

Background

Atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery (POAF) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Several scores were used to predict POAF, with variable results. Thus, this study assessed the performance of several scoring systems to predict POAF after mitral valve surgery. Additionally, we identified the risk factors for POAF in those patients.

Methods

This retrospective cohort included 1381 recruited from 2009 to 2021. The patients underwent mitral valve surgery, and POAF occurred in 233 (16.87%) patients. The performance of CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, POAF, EuroSCORE II, and HATCH scores was evaluated.

Results

The median age was higher in patients who developed POAF (60 vs. 54 years; p < .001). CHA2-DS2-VASc, POAF, EuroSCORE II, and HATCH scores significantly predicted POAF, with areas under the curve of the receiver operator curve (AUCROC) of 0.56, 0.61, 0.58, and 0.54, respectively. We identified age > 58 years, body mass index > 28 kg/m2, creatinine clearance < 90 mL/min, reoperative surgery, and preoperative inotropic and intra-aortic balloon pump use as predictors of POAF. We constructed a score from these variables (PSCC-AF). A score > 2 significantly predicted POAF (p < .001). The AUCROC of this score was 0.67, which was significantly higher than the AUCROC of the POAF score (p = .009).

Conclusion

POAF after mitral valve surgery can be predicted based on preoperative patient characteristics. The new PSCC-AF score significantly predicted POAF after mitral valve surgery and can serve as a bedside diagnostic tool for POAF risk screening. Further studies are needed to validate the PSCC-AF-mitral score externally.

Risk Scores for Prediction of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery and is associated with poor clinical outcomes. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the performance of risk scores to predict POAF in cardiac surgery patients. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL for studies that developed/evaluated a POAF risk prediction model. Pairs of reviewers independently screened studies and extracted data. We pooled area under the receiver operating curves (AUCs), sensitivity and specificity, and adjusted odds ratios from multivariable regression analyses using the generic inverse variance method and random effects models. Forty-three studies (n = 63,847) were included in the quantitative synthesis. Most scores were originally developed for other purposes but evaluated for predicting POAF. Pooled AUC revealed moderate POAF discrimination for the EuroSCORE II (AUC 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54 to 0.65), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (AUC 0.60, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.63), EuroSCORE (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.68), CHADS2 (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.75), POAF Score (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.68), HATCH (AUC 0.67, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.75), CHA2DS2-VASc (AUC 0.68, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.75) and SYNTAX scores (AUC 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.78). Pooled analyses at specific cutoffs of the CHA2DS2-VASc, CHADS2, HATCH, and POAF scores demonstrated moderate-to-high sensitivity (range 46% to 87%) and low-to-moderate specificity (range 31% to 70%) for POAF prediction. In conclusion, existing clinical risk scores offer at best moderate prediction for POAF after cardiac surgery. Better models are needed to guide POAF risk stratification in cardiac surgery patients.

Inflammatory prognostic index predicts new-onset atrial fibrillation and mortality after on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to analyze its predictive role in incipient postoperative atrial fibrillation by constructing an inflammatory prognostic index based on hematological and biochemical parameters in patients undergoing elective isolated coronary artery surgery accompanied by cardiopulmonary bypass.

METHODS

The data of 343 patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery between May 2021 and July 2022 were evaluated. Multivariate logistic regression and recipient study characteristic curve analyses were studied by comparing the patients' hematological indices and basic clinical features between the two groups.

RESULTS

Logistic regression analysis showed that age (p<0.001), hypertension (p=0.01), and inflammatory prognostic index (p<0.001) were independent predictors of new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation. To predict the development of postoperative atrial fibrillation, a cutoff value of 0.25 (77.8% sensitivity and 69.3% specificity) was determined for inflammatory prognostic index in the receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis (area under curve=0.798, 95% confidence interval 0.752-0.840).

CONCLUSION

Inflammatory prognostic index can be a noninvasive, easily available marker for predicting new-onset atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass surgery.

Predictors of atrial fibrillation post coronary artery bypass graft surgery: new scoring system

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) following coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) is common and results in significant increases in hospital stay and financial encumbrance.

OBJECTIVE

Determine and use the predictors of postoperative AF (POAF) following CABG to develop a new predictive screening tool.

METHOD

A retrospective case-control study evaluated 388 patients (98 developed POAF and 290 remained in sinus rhythm) who undertook CABG surgery at Townsville University Hospital between 2016 and 2017. The demographic profile, risk factors for AF including hypertension, age≥75 years, transient ischaemic attack or stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HATCH) score, electrocardiography features and perioperative factors were determined.

RESULTS

Patients who developed POAF were significantly older. On univariate analysis HATCH score, aortic regurgitation, increased p-wave duration and amplitude in lead II and terminal p-wave amplitude in lead V1 were associated with POAF; as were increased cardiopulmonary bypass time (103.5±33.9 vs 90.6±26.4 min, p=0.001) and increased cross clamp time. On multivariate analysis age (p=0.038), p-wave duration ≥100 ms (p=0.005), HATCH score (p=0.049) and CBP Time ≥100 min (p=0.001) were associated with POAF. Receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated that with a cut-off of ≥2 for HATCH score, POAF could be predicted with a sensitivity of 72.8% and a specificity of 34.7%. Adding p-wave duration in lead II >100 ms and cardiopulmonary bypass time >100 min to the HATCH score increased the sensitivity to 83.7% with a specificity of 33.1%. This was termed the HATCH-PC score.

CONCLUSION

Patients with HATCH scores ≥2, and those with p-wave duration >100 ms, or cardiopulmonary bypass time >100 min were at greater risk of developing POAF following CABG.

Atrial Fibrillation Occurring During Acute Hospitalization: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

Acute atrial fibrillation is defined as atrial fibrillation detected in the setting of acute care or acute illness; atrial fibrillation may be detected or managed for the first time during acute hospitalization for another condition. Atrial fibrillation after cardiothoracic surgery is a distinct type of acute atrial fibrillation. Acute atrial fibrillation is associated with high risk of long-term atrial fibrillation recurrence, warranting clinical attention during acute hospitalization and over long-term follow-up. A framework of substrates and triggers can be useful for evaluating and managing acute atrial fibrillation. Acute management requires a multipronged approach with interdisciplinary care collaboration, tailoring treatments to the patient's underlying substrate and acute condition. Key components of acute management include identification and treatment of triggers, selection and implementation of rate/rhythm control, and management of anticoagulation. Acute rate or rhythm control strategy should be individualized with consideration of the patient's capacity to tolerate rapid rates or atrioventricular dyssynchrony, and the patient's ability to tolerate the risk of the therapeutic strategy. Given the high risks of atrial fibrillation recurrence in patients with acute atrial fibrillation, clinical follow-up and heart rhythm monitoring are warranted. Long-term management is guided by patient substrate, with implications for intensity of heart rhythm monitoring, anticoagulation, and considerations for rhythm management strategies. Overall management of acute atrial fibrillation addresses substrates and triggers. The 3As of acute management are acute triggers, atrial fibrillation rate/rhythm management, and anticoagulation. The 2As and 2Ms of long-term management include monitoring of heart rhythm and modification of lifestyle and risk factors, in addition to considerations for atrial fibrillation rate/rhythm management and anticoagulation. Several gaps in knowledge related to acute atrial fibrillation exist and warrant future research.

A prediction model for new-onset atrial fibrillation following coronary artery bypass graft surgery: A multicenter retrospective study

Objective

Developing and assessing a risk prediction model of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), and aims to provide a reference for the prediction and prevention.

Design

A retrospective case-control study.

Setting

Three major urban teaching and university hospitals and tertiary referral centers.

Participants

consecutive patients undergoing CABG.

Interventions

The study was retrospective and no interventions were administered to patients.

Measurements and main results

In the study, the overall new-onset POAF prevalence was approximately 28%. A prediction model for POAF with nine significant indicators was developed, and identified new predictors of POAF: left ventricular end diastolic diameter (LVEDD), intraoperative defibrillation, and intraoperative temporary pacing lead implantation. The model had good discrimination in both the derivation and validation cohorts, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of 0.621 (95% CI = 0.602-0.640) and 0.616 (95% CI = 0.579-0.651), respectively, and showed good calibration. Compared with CHA₂DS₂-VASc, HATCH score, and the prediction model of POAF after CABG developed based on a small sample of clinical data from a single center in China, the model in this study had better discrimination.

Conclusion

We have developed and validated a new prediction model of POAF after CABG using multicenter data that can be used in the clinic for early identification of high-risk patients of POAF, and to help effectively prevent POAF in postoperative patients.

Predicting atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery: a scoping review of associated factors and systematic review of existing prediction models

INTRODUCTION

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is common after cardiac surgery and associated with increased hospital length of stay, patient morbidity and mortality. We aimed to identify factors associated with POAF and evaluate the accuracy of available POAF prediction models.

METHODS

We screened articles from Ovid MEDLINE® and PubMed Central® (PMC) and included studies that evaluated risk factors associated with POAF or studies that designed or validated POAF prediction models. We only included studies in cardiac surgical patients with sample size n ⩾ 50 and a POAF outcome group ⩾20. We summarised factors that were associated with POAF and assessed prediction model performance by reviewing reported calibration and discriminative ability.

RESULTS

We reviewed 232 studies. Of these, 142 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Age was frequently found to be associated with POAF, while most other variables showed contradictory findings, or were assessed in few studies. Overall, 15 studies specifically developed and/or validated 12 prediction models. Of these, all showed poor discrimination or absent calibration in predicting POAF in externally validated cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Except for age, reporting of factors associated with POAF is inconsistent and often contradictory. Prediction models have low discrimination, missing calibration statistics, are at risk of bias and show limited clinical applicability. This suggests the need for studies that prospectively collect AF relevant data in large cohorts and then proceed to validate findings in external data sets.

Association of Mitral Regurgitation with Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Critically Ill Noncardiac Surgery Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study

Purpose

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in critically ill patients and can have serious consequences. Postoperative AF (POAF) in critically ill patients following noncardiac surgery has been understudied, contrary to cardiac procedures. Mitral regurgitation (MR) is associated with left ventricular dysfunction, which might contribute to the occurrence of AF in postoperative critically ill patients. This study aimed to investigate the association between MR and POAF in critically ill noncardiac surgery patients and establish a new nomogram for the prediction of POAF in critically ill noncardiac surgery patients.

Patients and Methods

A prospective cohort of 2474 patients who underwent thoracic and general surgery was enrolled in this study. Data on preoperative transthoracic echocardiography (TTE), electrocardiogram (ECG), and several commonly utilized scoring systems (CHA2DS2-VASc, HATCH, COM-AF, HART, and C2HEST) and baseline clinical data were collected. Independent predictors were selected by univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis, and a nomogram was constructed for POAF within 7 days after postoperative intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The ability of the MR-nomogram and other scoring systems to predict POAF was compared by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA). Additional contributions were evaluated by integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis.

Results

A total of 213 (8.6%) patients developed POAF within 7 days after ICU admission. Compared to CHA2DS2-VASc, HATCH, COM-AF, HART, and C2HEST scoring systems, MR-nomogram showed better predictive ability for POAF with an area under the ROC curve of 0.824 (95% confidence interval: 0.805-0.842, p < 0.001). The improvement of the MR-nomogram in predictive value was supported by NRI and IDI analysis. The net benefit of the MR nomogram was maximal in DCA.

Conclusion

MR is an independent risk factor of POAF in critically ill noncardiac surgery patients. The nomogram predicted POAF better than other scoring systems.

Association of LDL to HDL ratio with new-onset atrial fibrillation after on-pump coronary artery bypass graft surgery

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to analyze the association between preoperative LDL/HDL ratio and new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) after on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (on-pump CABG), evaluate the clinic value of preoperative LDL/HDL ratio to identify postoperative rhythm.

METHODS

A retrospective study of consecutive patients (n = 2052) who underwent on-pump CABG at TEDA International Cardiovascular Hospital (Tianjin, China), from June 1, 2020, to December 30, 2021, was conducted. The association between preoperative LDL/HDL and new-onset POAF was analyzed by Lowess curve and univariate logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the identification capacity of preoperative LDL/HDL level for new-onset POAF.

RESULTS

In studied populations, the incidence of new-onset POAF was about 29.24%. The lowess curve showed that the association between preoperative LDL/HDL ratio and POAF after on-pump CABG was similar to a linear relationship. With the increasement of preoperative LDL/HDL ratio, the incidence of POAF increased simultaneously. ROC analysis showed that preoperative LDL/HDL ratio could identify postoperative arrhythmia after on-pump CABG (AUC = 0.569,95% CI = 0.529-0.608, P = 0.006) among female patients, the best preoperative LDL/HDL ratio cutoff of 2.11, which was considered a predictive factor of incident POAF, showed a sensitivity of 83.60% (95% CI = 0.775-0.886) and a specificity of 30.02% (95% CI = 0.257-0.346).

CONCLUSION

Preoperative LDL/HDL ratio is associated with new-onset POAF, but there is a difference in different sex. Preoperative LDL/HDL level can help to identify postoperative rhythm in females.

Predicting New-Onset Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation Following Isolated Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Development and Validation of a Novel Nomogram

Objective

To select variables associated with new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and develop a nomogram for risk prediction in a Chinese population.

Methods

The study retrospectively enrolled 4854 consecutive patients undergoing isolated CABG from February 2018 to September 2019, they were divided into derivation cohort and validation cohort with a 3:1 ratio according to the order of operation date. In the derivation cohort, significant variables were selected by use of the multivariate logistic backward stepwise regression analysis and a nomogram model was built on the strength of the results. The model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration. Besides, we compared the discriminative ability for POAF of the nomogram with established prediction models (CHA2DS2-VASc and HATCH scores) in the two cohorts.

Results

POAF occurred in 1025 (28.2%) out of 3641 patients in the derivation cohort, and in 337 (27.8%) out of 1213 patients in the validation cohort. A nomogram, composed of eight prognostic variables, namely age, sex, heart rate, hypertension, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <50%, left atrial diameter (LAD) > 40mm, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) level, and on-pump surgery, was constructed from the derivation cohort. The nomogram had substantial discriminative ability in derivation and validation cohorts with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of 0.661 (95% confidence interval, 0.642–0.681) and 0.665 (95% confidence interval, 0.631–0.699), respectively, and showed well-fitted calibration curves. Compared with CHA2DS2-VASc, HATCH and POAF scores, respectively, the nomogram had superior discrimination performance.

Conclusion

We constructed a novel nomogram with improved accuracy for predicting the risk of POAF following isolated CABG, which might help clinicians predict individual probability of POAF and achieve effective prophylaxis.

Predictive Value of HATCH Scoring and Waist-to-Height Ratio in Atrial Fibrillation Following Coronary Artery Bypass Operations Performed with Cardiopulmonary Bypass

Objectives

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (PoAF), an important clinical condition that can occur after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) operations, may bring about cerebrovascular risks, prolong hospital stay and increase treatment costs. In this prospective study, we aimed to investigate the predictive value of HATCH score and waist/height ratio (WHR) values in revealing the development of PoAF after CABG operations.

Methods

Patients who underwent isolated CABG surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass between May 2019 and November 2019 were prospectively included in the study. Preoperative demographic characteristics, laboratory parameters, and operative parameters of the patients were recorded prospectively.

Results

A total of 255 patients were included in the study. Those who did not develop PoAF were included in Group 1 (N = 196, mean age = 58.9 ± 9.4 years), and those who did were included in Group 2 (n = 59, mean age = 61.1 ± 12 years). There were no statistically significant differences between the two groups in terms of age, gender, presence of hypertension and hyperlipidemia. Rates of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and previous percutaneous coronary interventions, waist circumference, waist to height ratio and HATCH score values were significantly higher in Group 2 compared to Group 1 ( p values: 0.019, 0.034, 0.001, <0.001, <0.001, respectively). In multivariate analysis, WHR (Odds ratio: 1.068, Confidence interval: 1.032–1.105, p < 0.001) and HATCH score (Odds ratio: 2.590, Confidence interval: 1.850–3.625, p < 0.001) were independent predictors of PoAF.

Conclusions

With this current prospective study, we showed that calculating WHR and HATCH score in the preoperative period can help us predict PoAF.

Investigation of the Effect of HATCH Score and Coronary Artery Disease Complexity on Atrial Fibrillation after On-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

OBJECTIVE

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (PoAF) is the most frequently encountered rhythm problem after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. This situation decreases the capacity of the patients with respect to functional exercise and creates a risk for stroke. In this study, we aimed to determine the effect of coronary artery disease extensiveness and HATCH score on PoAF in patients undergoing CABG surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Patients who underwent CABG between December 2014 and December 2018 were included retrospectively. Preoperative demographic characteristics, laboratory parameters, and operative parameters of the patients were recorded retrospectively.

RESULTS

Of the 352 patients, 274 had HATCH scores ≤2 (71.1% male, mean age: 61.7 ± 12.4 years), and 78 had HATCH scores >2 (69.2% male, mean age: 65.9 ± 11.7 years). Significant differences were found between the 2 groups in terms of the age (p = 0.014), presence of hypertension (p = 0.012), PoAF (p < 0.001), and SYNTAX (synergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with taxus and cardiac surgery) score I (p = 0.001). A HATCH score >2 and SYNTAX score I were identified as independent predictors of PoAF (OR: 1.022, 95% CI: 1.004-1.128, p = 0.032, and OR 1.098, 95% CI 1.035-1.164, p = 0.002, respectively). For predicting PoAF, the cutoff level in the ROC curve analysis was 19.7 for SYNTAX score (AUC 0.647, 95% CI 0.581-0.714, p < 0.001, 72.2% sensitivity and 66.4% specificity), and the cutoff level for HATCH score was 2 (AUC 0.656, 95% CI 0.595-0.722, p < 0.001, 69.4% sensitivity and 56.8% specificity) Conclusions: HATCH and SYNTAX scores are predictors of PoAF.

Development and Validation of A Simple Clinical Risk Prediction Model for New-Onset Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery: Nopaf Score

Introduction

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAFib) occurs in 20 to 40% of patients following cardiac surgery, and is associated with an increased perioperative morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop and validate a simple clinical risk model for the prediction of POAFib after cardiac surgery.

Methods

An analytical single center retrospective cohort study was conducted, including consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery between 2004 and 2017 with POAFib. To create the predictive risk score, a logistic regression model was performed using a random sample of 75% of the population. Coefficients of the model were then converted to a numerical risk score, and three groups were defined: low risk (≤1 point), intermediate risk (2-5 points) and high risk (≥6 points). The score was validated using the remaining 25% of the patients. Discrimination was evaluated through the area under the curve (AUC) ROC, and calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test, calibration plots, and ratio of expected and observed events (E/O).

Results

Six thousand five hundred nine patients underwent cardiac surgery: 52% coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 20% valve surgery, 14% combined (CABG and valve surgery) and 12% other. New-onset AF occurred in 1222 patients (18.77%). In the multivariate analysis, age, use of cardiopulmonary bypass pump, severe reduction in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), chronic renal disease and heart failure were independent risk factors for POAFib, while the use of statins was a protective factor. The NOPAF score was calculated by adding points for each independent risk predictor. In the derivation cohort, the AUC was 0.71 (CI95% 0.69-0.72), and in the validation cohort the model also showed good discrimination (AUC 0.67 IC 0.64-0.70) and excellent calibration (HL P = 0.24). The E/O ratio was 1 (CI 95%: 0.89-1.12). According to the risk category, POAFib occurred in 5% of low; 11% of intermediate and 27.7% of high risk patients in the derivation cohort (P <0.001), and 5.7%; 12.6%; and 23.6% in the validation cohort respectively (P <0.001).

Conclusion

From a large hospitalized population, we developed and validated a simple risk score named NOPAF, based on clinical variables that accurately stratifies the risk of POAFib. This score may help to identify high-risk patients prior to cardiac surgery, in order to strengthen postoperative atrial fibrillation prophylaxis.