Statistical power of MRI monitored trials in multiple sclerosis: new data and comparison with previous results

Safety, tolerability, and activity of mesenchymal stem cells versus placebo in multiple sclerosis (MESEMS): a phase 2, randomised, double-blind crossover trial

BACKGROUND

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs), also known as mesenchymal stromal cells, have been proposed as a promising therapeutic option for people with multiple sclerosis on the basis of their immunomodulatory and neuroprotective properties. The MEsenchymal StEm cells for Multiple Sclerosis (MESEMS) study was devised to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and activity of autologous MSCs derived from bone marrow and infused intravenously in patients with active multiple sclerosis.

METHODS

MESEMS is a randomised phase 2 trial done at 15 sites in nine countries. Patients (aged 18-50 years) with active relapsing-remitting or progressive multiple sclerosis were included if they had a disease duration of 2-15 years since onset of multiple sclerosis and an Expanded Disability Status Scale score of 2·5-6·5. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1), according to a crossover design, to receive a single intravenous dose of autologous bone marrow-derived MSCs followed by placebo at week 24, or to receive placebo followed by autologous MSCs at week 24, with a follow-up visit at week 48. Primary objectives were to test safety and activity of MSC treatment. The primary safety endpoint was to assess the number and severity of adverse events within each treatment arm. The primary efficacy endpoint was the number of gadolinium-enhancing lesions (GELs) counted over week 4, 12, and 24 compared between treatment groups. The primary efficacy endpoint was assessed in the full analyis set, after all participants completed the week 24 visit. Efficacy endpoints were evaluated using a predefined statistical testing procedure. Safety was monitored throughout the study by recording vital signs and adverse events at each visit.

FINDINGS

From July 16, 2012, until July 31, 2019, 144 patients were randomly assigned to first receive early intravenous infusion of autologous bone marrow-derived MSCs (n=69) or placebo (n=75). MSC treatment did not meet the primary endpoint of efficacy on the total number of GELs accumulated from baseline to week 24 (rate ratio [RR] 0·94, 95% CI 0·58-1·50; p=0·78). 213 adverse events were recorded, similarly distributed between groups (93 cases recorded in 35 [51%] of 69 patients treated first with MSCs vs 120 cases in 42 [56%] of 75 patients infused first with placebo). The most frequent adverse events reported were infection and infestations, with a total of 54 (25%) of 213 adverse events (18 [19%] of 93 in the early-MSC group and 36 [30%] of 120 in the delayed-MSC group). Nine serious adverse events were reported in seven patients treated with placebo versus none in the MSC group. All serious adverse events were considered to be unrelated to the treatment infusion. No deaths were reported during the study.

INTERPRETATION

Bone marrow-derived MSC treatment was safe and well tolerated but did not show an effect on GELs, an MRI surrogate marker of acute inflammation, in patients with active forms of multiple sclerosis, at week 24. Thus, this study does not support the use of bone marrow-derived MSCs to treat active multiple sclerosis. Further studies should address the effect of MSCs on parameters related to tissue repair.

FUNDING

Fondazione Italiana Sclerosi Multipla (FISM), the European Committee for Treatment and Research in Multiple Sclerosis (ECTRIMS), and the Multiple Sclerosis International Federation (MSIF) for centralised activities. Individual trials participating in the MESEMS network are funded by the following agencies: FISM and Compagnia di San Paolo (Italy); The Danish Multiple Sclerosis Society, The Toyota Foundation, and Danish Blood Donors' Research Foundation (Denmark); the Spanish Health Research Institute Carlos 3 and the Andalusian Public Foundation Progreso y Salud (Spain); the Royan Institute for Stem Cell Biology and Technology (Iran); the Spinal Cord Injury and Tissue Regeneration Centre Salzburg, Paracelsus Medical University, and Salzburg (Austria); the Fondation pour l'aide à la recherche sur la sclérose en plaques (ARSEP), French Muscular Dystrophy Association (AFM)-Telethon (France); the UK Multiple Sclerosis Society and the UK Stem Cell Foundation (UK); and the Multiple Sclerosis Society of Canada and The Multiple Sclerosis Scientific Research Foundation and Research Manitoba (Canada).

MRI-based clinical trials in relapsing-remitting MS: new sample size calculations based on a longitudinal model

BACKGROUND

Sample sizes for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based clinical trials in multiple sclerosis (MS) generally assume that lesion counts are reasonably described by the negative binomial (NB) model.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the appropriateness of the NB model for lesion count data and to provide sample sizes for placebo-controlled, MRI-based clinical trials in relapsing-remitting MS using a more realistic model.

METHODS

The fit of the NB model in each arm of five MS clinical trials was assessed using Pearson's chi-squared statistic. Required sample sizes associated with various tests of treatment effect were estimated by simulating data from a new, longitudinal model for repeated lesion count data on individual patients.

RESULTS

Evidence (p < 0.05) against the NB model was found in at least one arm of four of the five trials. If a trial is designed using this model but the resulting clinical data do not follow its assumptions then this trial can be seriously under-powered for assessing differences in mean lesion counts.

CONCLUSION

Sample sizes based on the longitudinal model are more realistic and often smaller than those previously reported using the NB model.

The use of MR imaging as an outcome measure in multiple sclerosis clinical trials

MR imaging is an integral part of multiple sclerosis (MS) clinical trials. It provides the primary efficacy outcome of preliminary proof-of-concept studies and important corroborating data as secondary and exploratory outcomes in pivotal trials. At all stages of drug development, MR imaging provides important information on the kinetics and magnitude of treatment effect and insight into potential mechanisms of action. Attention to issues in scan acquisition, quantitative image processing, and statistical analysis is critical to generate high-quality data. Although it is unlikely that one single outcome measure can capture all aspects of the MS disease process, there is potential for MR imaging outcomes to evaluate inflammatory and degenerative components within clinical trials.

Inferences and Power Analysis Concerning Two Negative Binomial Distributions with An Application to MRI Lesion Counts Data

In comparing the mean count of two independent samples, some practitioners would use the t-test or the Wilcoxon rank sum test while others may use methods based on a Poisson model. It is not uncommon to encounter count data that exhibit overdispersion where the Poisson model is no longer appropriate. This paper deals with methods for overdispersed data using the negative binomial distribution resulting from a Poisson-Gamma mixture. We investigate the small sample properties of the likelihood-based tests and compare their performances to those of the t-test and of the Wilcoxon test. We also illustrate how these procedures may be used to compute power and sample sizes to design studies with response variables that are overdispersed count data. Although methods are based on inferences about two independent samples, sample size calculations may also be applied to problems comparing more than two independent samples. It will be shown that there is gain in efficiency when using the likelihood-based methods compared to the t-test and the ilcoxon test. In studies where each observation is very costly, the ability to derive smaller sample size estimates with the appropriate tests is not only statistically, but also financially, appealing.

Repeated subcutaneous injections of IL12/23 p40 neutralising antibody, ustekinumab, in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a phase II, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised, dose-ranging study

BACKGROUND

Repeated subcutaneous injections of a monoclonal antibody against the p40 subunit of interleukins 12 and 23, ustekinumab, were used to treat patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) to assess the drug's safety, efficacy, and pharmacokinetics.

METHODS

In this phase II, multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, 249 patients with RRMS, aged 18-65 years, were eligible to be assigned equally (by a central randomisation procedure based on study site and presence or absence of gadolinium-enhancing T1-weighted lesions at baseline) to one of five groups that received placebo or four different ustekinumab dosages at weeks 0, 1, 2, 3, 7, 11, 15, and 19. Ustekinumab doses were 27 mg, 90 mg q8w, 90 mg, or 180 mg; the 90 mg q8w dosage group received placebo substitute at weeks 7 and 15. The primary endpoint was the cumulative number of new gadolinium-enhancing T1-weighted lesions on serial cranial MRI through week 23. Patients were followed up through week 37. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00207727.

FINDINGS

From August, 2004, to December, 2006, 249 patients underwent randomisation (49 for placebo; 50 for each ustekinumab group). Ustekinumab treatment did not show a significant reduction in the primary endpoint for any dosage groups versus placebo. At week 37, adverse events occurred in 38 (78%) placebo-treated patients and 170 (85%) ustekinumab-treated patients, with infections most commonly reported. Serious adverse events occurred in one (2%) placebo-treated patient and six (3%) ustekinumab-treated patients. Malignant diseases were reported in two patients shortly after the initiation of ustekinumab treatment; both patients were withdrawn from the trial and given appropriate treatment, which resulted in complete remission. No serious infections, cardiovascular events, or exacerbation of demyelinating events occurred. A dose-dependent increase in serum concentrations of ustekinumab was recorded.

INTERPRETATION

Ustekinumab is generally well tolerated but does not show efficacy in reducing the cumulative number of gadolinium-enhancing T1-weighted lesions in multiple sclerosis.

Statistical Issues Related to the Use of MRI Data in Multiple Sclerosis

Since magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain has proved to be the most important paraclinical tool for diagnosing multiple sclerosis (MS) and monitoring its evolution, methodological and statistical issues related to the use of MRI markers in MS have been the focus of several studies in the past 10 years. While many of these methodological issues have been addressed using standard procedures available from other areas of application of medical statistics, in some cases statistical procedures that are not standard have been developed specifically for MRI variables in MS. Two of the major achievements in the statistical methods applied to the use of MRI variables in MS in the past 10 years were the identification of a parametric model to describe the distribution of MRI lesion counts across patients and the study of the relationships between MRI markers and clinical variables, with the aim to validate MRI parameters as surrogates for clinical progression.

Age-related gadolinium-enhancement of MRI brain lesions in multiple sclerosis

There is evidence that inflammatory processes in multiple sclerosis (MS) are age-dependent. In this study we evaluated the impact of aging on gadolinium (Gd) enhancement of brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) lesions in MS patients. Pre- and post-contrast MRI scans, acquired using a standardized procedure by the same MRI scanner, at least 1 month far from clinical relapse or steroid treatment, were examined in 200 disease-modifying treatment free MS patients. Seventy-three patients (36.5%) showed at least one enhancing lesion. Age at MRI examination (p=0.0001), disease duration (p=0.002) and EDSS score were significantly (p=0.02) lower, whereas relapse rate in the preceding 2 years was higher (p=0.003) in patients with enhancing lesions than in patients with unenhancing scans. Multivariate logistic analysis showed that current age was the variable better predicting Gd enhancement (p=0.004). The odds ratios were 0.95 (CI: 0.92-0.98) for each year of patient's age and 0.64 (CI: 0.48-0.87) for each age decade. The main changes in enhancement risk occurred after 35 years of age. Multivariate Poisson regression model showed that relapse rate in the preceding 2 years (p<0.0001) and current age (p=0.0003) were the best predictors of the number of enhancing lesions. This information can be used to increase the statistical power of clinical trials using Gd-enhancing lesions as an outcome measure.

Imaging of multiple sclerosis: role in neurotherapeutics

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) plays an ever-expanding role in the evaluation of multiple sclerosis (MS). This includes its sensitivity for the diagnosis of the disease and its role in identifying patients at high risk for conversion to MS after a first presentation with selected clinically isolated syndromes. In addition, MRI is a key tool in providing primary therapeutic outcome measures for phase I/II trials and secondary outcome measures in phase III trials. The utility of MRI stems from its sensitivity to longitudinal changes including those in overt lesions and, with advanced MRI techniques, in areas affected by diffuse occult disease (the so-called normal-appearing brain tissue). However, all current MRI methodology suffers from limited specificity for the underlying histopathology. Conventional MRI techniques, including lesion detection and measurement of atrophy from T1- or T2-weighted images, have been the mainstay for monitoring disease activity in clinical trials, in which the use of gadolinium with T1-weighted images adds additional sensitivity and specificity for areas of acute inflammation. Advanced imaging methods including magnetization transfer, fluid attenuated inversion recovery, diffusion, magnetic resonance spectroscopy, functional MRI, and nuclear imaging techniques have added to our understanding of the pathogenesis of MS and may provide methods to monitor therapies more sensitively in the future. However, these advanced methods are limited by their cost, availability, complexity, and lack of validation. In this article, we review the role of conventional and advanced imaging techniques with an emphasis on neurotherapeutics.

Modelling new enhancing MRI lesion counts in multiple sclerosis

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been established as the most relevant paraclinical tool for diagnosing and monitoring multiple sclerosis (MS). In this context, counting the number of new enhancing lesions on monthly MRI scans is widely used as a surrogate marker of MS activity when evaluating the effect of treatments. In this study, we investigated whether parametric models based on mixed Poisson distributions (the Negative Binomial (NB) and the Poisson-Inverse Gaussian (P-IG) distributions) were able to provide adequate fitting of new enhancing lesion counts in MS. We found that the NB model gave good approximations in relapsing-remitting and secondary progressive MS patients not selected for baseline MRI activity, whereas the P-IG distribution modelled better new enhancing lesion counts in relapsing-remitting MS patients selected for baseline activity. This study shows that parametric modelling for MS new enhancing lesion counts is feasible. This approach should provide more targeted tools for the design and the analysis of MRI monitored clinical trials in MS.

Clinical trials of multiple sclerosis monitored with enhanced MRI: new sample size calculations based on large data sets

OBJECTIVE

A new parametric simulation procedure based on the negative binomial (NB) model was used to evaluate the sample sizes needed to achieve optimal statistical powers for parallel groups (with (PGB) and without (PG) a baseline correction scan). It was also used for baseline versus treatment (BVT) design clinical trials in relapsing-remitting (RR) and secondary progressive (SP) multiple sclerosis (MS), when using the number of new enhancing lesions seen on monthly MRI of the brain as the measure of outcome.

METHODS

MRI data obtained from 120 untreated patients with RRMS selected for the presence of MRI activity at baseline, 66 untreated and unselected patients with RRMS, and 81 untreated and unselected patients with SPMS were fitted using an NB distribution. All these patients were scanned monthly for at least 6 months and were all from the placebo arms of three large scale clinical trials and one natural history study. The statistical powers were calculated for durations of follow up of 3 and 6 months.

RESULTS

The frequency of new enhancing lesions in patients with SPMS was lower, but not significantly different, from that seen in unselected patients with RRMS. As expected, enhancement was more frequent in patients with RRMS selected for MRI activity at baseline than in the other two patient groups. As a consequence, the estimated sample sizes needed to detect treatment efficacy in selected patients with RRMS were smaller than those of unselected patients with RRMS and those with SPMS. Baseline correction was also seen to reduce the sample sizes of PG design trials. An increased number of scans reduced the sample sizes needed to perform BVT trials, whereas the gain in power was less evident in PG and PGB trials.

CONCLUSION

This study provides reliable estimates of the sample sizes needed to perform MRI monitored clinical trials in the major MS clinical phenotypes, which should be useful for planning future studies.

Enhanced magnetic resonance imaging in multiple sclerosis

Gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is very sensitive in the detection of active lesions of multiple sclerosis (MS) and has become a valuable tool to monitor the evolution of the disease either natural or modified by treatment. In the past few years, several studies, on the one hand, have assessed several ways to increase the sensitivity of enhanced MRI to disease activity and, on the other, have investigated in vivo the nature and evolution of enhancing lesions using different non-conventional MR techniques to better define the relationship between enhancement and tissue loss in MS. The present review is a summary of these studies whose results are discussed in the context of MS clinical trial planning and monitoring. Multiple Sclerosis (2000) 6 320 - 326

Contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance activity in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis patients: a short term natural history study

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been used to study the history of multiple sclerosis (MS). We analyze the relationship between MRI activity in the first scan compared to the subsequent five scans, and we evaluate whether a shorter observation period of 3 months may predict the subsequent 3 months. Monthly enhanced MRI was performed in 103 relapsing remitting (RR) MS patients for 6 months. Thirty-five per cent of patients had an inactive scan on the initial examination. More than 80% of them developed MRI activity during the following 5 months. Eighteen per cent of patients had three consecutive inactive scans; 65% of them had at least one active scan on the subsequent 3 monthly MRI's. The relationship between the first scan and all subsequent scans demonstrates a clear weakening over time. Eighty-two per cent of patients had at least one active scan during the initial 3 consecutive months, the chance of becoming inactive decreased from 23% to 0% over the subsequent 3 months, according with the mean number of enhancing lesions during the first 3 months. These results suggest that neither a single scan nor a short baseline of 3 months may adequately describe the natural history of disease in an individual RRMS patient.