Prediction of bleb formation in intracranial aneurysms using machine learning models based on aneurysm hemodynamics, geometry, location, and patient population

Evaluation of predictive models of aneurysm focal growth and bleb development using machine learning techniques

BACKGROUND

The presence of blebs increases the rupture risk of intracranial aneurysms (IAs).

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether cross-sectional bleb formation models can identify aneurysms with focalized enlargement in longitudinal series.

METHODS

Hemodynamic, geometric, and anatomical variables derived from computational fluid dynamics models of 2265 IAs from a cross-sectional dataset were used to train machine learning (ML) models for bleb development. ML algorithms, including logistic regression, random forest, bagging method, support vector machine, and K-nearest neighbors, were validated using an independent cross-sectional dataset of 266 IAs. The models' ability to identify aneurysms with focalized enlargement was evaluated using a separate longitudinal dataset of 174 IAs. Model performance was quantified by the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC), the sensitivity and specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, F1 score, balanced accuracy, and misclassification error.

RESULTS

The final model, with three hemodynamic and four geometrical variables, along with aneurysm location and morphology, identified strong inflow jets, non-uniform wall shear stress with high peaks, larger sizes, and elongated shapes as indicators of a higher risk of focal growth over time. The logistic regression model demonstrated the best performance on the longitudinal series, achieving an AUC of 0.9, sensitivity of 85%, specificity of 75%, balanced accuracy of 80%, and a misclassification error of 21%.

CONCLUSIONS

Models trained with cross-sectional data can identify aneurysms prone to future focalized growth with good accuracy. These models could potentially be used as early indicators of future risk in clinical practice.

Prediction of cerebral aneurysm rupture risk by machine learning algorithms: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 18,670 participants

It is possible to identify unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIA) using machine learning (ML) algorithms, which can be a life-saving strategy, especially in high-risk populations. To better understand the importance and effectiveness of ML algorithms in practice, a systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to predict cerebral aneurysm rupture risk. PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Embase were searched without restrictions until March 20, 2023. Eligibility criteria included studies that used ML approaches in patients with cerebral aneurysms confirmed by DSA, CTA, or MRI. Out of 35 studies included, 33 were cohort, and 11 used digital subtraction angiography (DSA) as their reference imaging modality. Middle cerebral artery (MCA) and anterior cerebral artery (ACA) were the commonest locations of aneurysmal vascular involvement-51% and 40%, respectively. The aneurysm morphology was saccular in 48% of studies. Ten of 37 studies (27%) used deep learning techniques such as CNNs and ANNs. Meta-analysis was performed on 17 studies: sensitivity of 0.83 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.77-0.88); specificity of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.75-0.88); positive DLR of 4.81 (95% CI, 3.29-7.02) and the negative DLR of 0.20 (95% CI, 0.14-0.29); a diagnostic score of 3.17 (95% CI, 2.55-3.78); odds ratio of 23.69 (95% CI, 12.75-44.01). ML algorithms can effectively predict the risk of rupture in cerebral aneurysms with good levels of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. However, further research is needed to enhance their diagnostic performance in predicting the rupture status of IA.