A meta-analysis of leukaemia risk from protracted exposure to low-dose gamma radiation

Low-Dose Radiation Risks of Lymphohematopoietic Cancer Mortality in U.S. Shipyard Workers

The linear, non-threshold (LNT) hypothesis of cancer induction derived from studies of populations exposed to moderate-to-high acute radiation doses may not be indicative of cancer risks associated with lifetime radiation exposures less than 100 mSv. The objective of this study was to examine risks and dose-response patterns of lymphohematopoietic cancer (LHC) and its types associated with low radiation exposure while adjusting for possible confounding factors. A retrospective cohort of 437,937 U.S. nuclear shipyard workers (153,930 radiation and 284,007 non-radiation workers) was followed from 1957 to 2011, with 3,699 LHC deaths observed. The risk of LHC in radiation workers was initially compared to the risk in non-radiation workers. Time dependent accumulated radiation dose, lagged 2 years, was used in categorical and continuous dose analysis among radiation workers to examine the LHC risks and possible dose-response relationships based on Poisson regression models. These analyses controlled for sex, race, time dependent age, calendar time, socioeconomic status, solvent-related last job, and age at first hire. The median lifetime radiation dose for the radiation worker population was 0.82 mSv and the 95th percentile dose was 83.63 mSv. The study shows: 1. LHC mortality for radiation workers was significantly lower than non-radiation workers relative risk: 0.927; 95% confidence intervals (95% CI): 0.865, 0.992; P = 0.030]. Among LHC types, the risks for lymphoid leukemia and lymphomas in radiation workers were lower than the risk in non-radiation workers with statistical significance, while the risk for the rest of LHC types did not show any statistically significant difference. 2. In categorical dose analysis among radiation workers, sample size weighted linear trend of relative risk (RRs) for LHC and its types in five dose categories (>0-<25, 25-<50, 50-<100, 100-<200, and > = 200 mSv) vs. 0 mSv were not statistically significant, although there was an elevation of RR for chronic myeloid leukemia only in the 50-<100 mSv category (RR: 2.746; 95% CI: 1.002, 7.521; P = 0.049) vs. 0 mSv. 3. The Poisson regression analyses among radiation workers using the time dependent radiation dose as a continuous variable showed an excess relative risk (ERR) for LHC at 100 mSv of 0.094 (95% CI: -0.037, 0.225; P = 0.158) and leukemia less chronic lymphoid leukemia, of 0.178 (95% CI: -0.085, 0.440; P = 0.440) vs. 0 mSv. The ERRs and their linear trend for all other types were not statistically significant.

A Study on Geographic Correlation between Indoor Radon Exposure and Leukemia Incidence in Canada

ABSTRACT

In Canada, leukemia is diagnosed at a rate of 15 cases per 100,000 persons and accounts for about 3% of all new primary cancers. In this study, geographical correlation between residential radon exposure and leukemia incidence was investigated at a provincial level with more accurate long-term radon measurement data in 21,330 homes and 10-y (2000-2009) age standardized incidence rates per 100,000 population for various subtypes of leukemia. The analyses showed that the incidence rate of non-Hodgkin lymphoma is statistically significantly correlated with average indoor radon (222Rn) concentration for Canadian females (p = 0.01210) but not for males. At a provincial level, the association between average indoor radon level and chronic lymphocytic leukemia incidence rate is statistically significant (p = 0.0167), and the correlation is somewhat stronger for females (p = 0.0043). No correlation was found between indoor radon exposure and any other subtypes of leukemia evaluated in this study.

Moon, Mars and Minds: Evaluating Parkinson's disease mortality among U.S. radiation workers and veterans in the million person study of low-dose effects

BACKGROUND

Radiation is one of the most important stressors related to missions in space beyond Earth's orbit. Epidemiologic studies of exposed workers have reported elevated rates of Parkinson's disease. The importance of cognitive dysfunction related to low-dose rate radiation in humans is not defined. A meta-analysis was conducted of six cohorts in the Million Person Study (MPS) of low-dose health effects to learn whether there is consistent evidence that Parkinson's disease is associated with radiation dose to brain.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The MPS evaluates all causes of death among U.S. radiation workers and veterans, including Parkinson's disease. Systematic and consistent methods are applied to study all categories of workers including medical radiation workers, industrial radiographers, nuclear power plant workers, atomic veterans, and Manhattan Projects workers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and at Rocky Flats. Consistent methods for all cohorts are used to estimate organ-specific doses and to obtain vital status and cause of death.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis include 6 cohorts within the MPS, consisting of 517,608 workers and 17,219,001 person-years of observation. The mean dose to brain ranged from 6.9 to 47.6 mGy and the maximum dose from 0.76 to 2.7 Gy. Five of the 6 cohorts revealed positive associations with Parkinson's disease. The overall summary estimate from the meta-analysis was statistically significant based on 1573 deaths due to Parkinson's disease. The summary excess relative risk at 100 mGy was 0.17 (95% CI: 0.05; 0.29).

CONCLUSIONS

Parkinson's disease was positively associated with radiation in the MPS cohorts indicating the need for careful evaluation as to causality in other studies, delineation of possible mechanisms, and assessing possible implications for space travel as well as radiation protection guidance for terrestrial workers.

Radiation and leukaemia: Which leukaemias and what doses?

The cause(s) of most cases of leukaemia is unknown. Save for several rare inherited disorders the most convincingly-identified causes of leukaemia are exposures to ionizing radiations, to some chemicals and to some anti-cancer drugs. Data implicating ionizing radiations as a cause of leukaemias come from several sources including persons exposed to the atomic bomb explosions in Japan, persons receiving radiation therapy for cancer and other disorders, persons occupationally exposed to radiation such as radiologists and nuclear facility workers, cigarette smokers, and others. Although ionizing radiations can be a cause of almost all types of leukaemias, some are especially sensitive to induction such as acute and chronic myeloid leukaemias (AML and CML) and acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). Whether chronic lymphocytic leukaemia can be caused by radiation exposure is controversial. The mechanism(s) by which ionizing radiations cause leukaemia differs for different leukaemia types. I discuss these issues and close with a hypothesis which might explain why haematopoietic stem cells are localized to the bone marrow.

Chemotherapy and Physical Therapeutics Modulate Antigens on Cancer Cells

Cancer cells possess specific properties, such as multidrug resistance or unlimited proliferation potential, due to the presence of specific proteins on their cell membranes. The release of proliferation-related proteins from the membrane can evoke a loss of adaptive ability in cancer cells and thus enhance the effects of anticancer therapy. The upregulation of cancer-specific membrane antigens results in a better outcome of immunotherapy. Moreover, cytotoxic T-cells may also become more effective when stimulated ex-vivo toward the anticancer response. Therefore, the modulation of membrane proteins may serve as an interesting attempt in anticancer therapy. The presence of membrane antigens relies on various physical factors such as temperature, exposure to radiation, or drugs. Therefore, changing the tumor microenvironment conditions may lead to cancer cells becoming sensitized to subsequent therapy. This paper focuses on the therapeutic approaches modulating membrane antigens and enzymes in anticancer therapy. It aims to analyze the possible methods for modulating the antigens, such as pharmacological treatment, electric field treatment, photodynamic reaction, treatment with magnetic field or X-ray radiation. Besides, an overview of the effects of chemotherapy and immunotherapy on the immunophenotype of cancer cells is presented. Finally, the authors review the clinical trials that involved the modulation of cell immunophenotype in anticancer therapy.

Association between exposures to radon and γ-ray radiation and histologic type of lung cancer in Eldorado uranium mining and milling workers from Canada

Background

The authors assessed the association between radon decay products (RDP) exposure and histologic types of incident lung cancer in a cohort of 16,752 (91.6% male) Eldorado uranium workers who were first employed from 1932 to 1980 and were followed through 1969–1999.

Methods

Substantially revised identifying information and RDP exposures were obtained on workers from the Port Radium and Beaverlodge uranium mines and from the Port Hope radium and uranium refinery and processing facility in Canada. Poisson regression was conducted using the National Research Council's Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VI–type models to estimate the risks of lung cancer by histologic type from RDP exposures and γ‐ray doses.

Results

Lung cancer incidence was significantly higher in workers compared with the general Canadian male population. Radiation risks of lung cancer for all histologic types (n = 594; 34% squamous cell, 16% small cell, 17% adenocarcinoma) increased with increasing RDP exposure, with no indication of curvature in the dose response (excess relative risk per 100 working level months = 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.39–0.91). Radiation risks did not differ by histologic type (p = .144). The best‐fitting BEIR VI–type model included adjustments for the significant modifying effects of time since exposure, exposure rate, and attained age. The addition of γ‐ray doses to the model with RDP exposures improved the model fit, but the risk estimates remained unchanged.

Conclusions

The first analysis of radiation risks of lung cancer histologic types in the Eldorado cohort supported the use of BEIR VI–type models to predict the future risk of histologic types of lung cancer from past and current RDP exposures.

Lay summary

Lung cancer survival depends strongly on the cell type of lung cancer.

The best survival rates are for patients who have the adenocarcinoma type.

This study included 16,752 Eldorado uranium workers who were exposed to radon and γ‐ray radiation during 1932–1980, were alive in 1969, and were followed for the development of new lung cancer during 1969–1999.

One third of all lung cancers were of the squamous cell type, whereas the adenocarcinoma and small cell types accounted for less than 20% each.

Radiation risks of lung cancer among men increased significantly with increasing radon exposure for all cell types, with the highest risks estimated for small cell and squamous cell lung cancers.

Risks of incident lung cancer in male workers increased significantly with increasing radon exposure, with no indication of curvature or differences in dose response between histologic types. The highest risks were observed for the small cell and squamous cell types of lung cancer.

Epidemiology beyond its limits

In 1995, journalist Gary Taubes published an article in Science titled "Epidemiology faces its limits," which questioned the utility of nonrandomized epidemiologic research and has since been cited more than 1000 times. He highlighted numerous examples of research topics he viewed as having questionable merit. Studies have since accumulated for these associations. We systematically evaluated current evidence of 53 example associations discussed in the article. Approximately one-quarter of those presented as doubtful are now widely viewed as causal based on current evaluations of the public health consensus. They include associations between alcohol consumption and breast cancer, residential radon exposure and lung cancer, and the use of tanning devices and melanoma. This history should inform current debates about the reproducibility of epidemiologic research results.

Low-dose ionizing radiation and cancer mortality among enlisted men stationed on nuclear-powered submarines in the United States Navy

BACKGROUND

Men stationed on nuclear-powered submarines are occupationally exposed to external ionizing radiation at very low levels and radiation dose for each individual is closely monitored. Little is known about ionizing radiation (IR) risks of cancer mortality for populations with levels of cumulative ionizing radiation exposure this low.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This historical cohort study followed 85,033 enlisted men who had served on a nuclear-powered submarine in the U.S. Navy between 1969 and 1982 to determine patterns of cancer mortality. Occupational radiation doses were measured by badge dosimeters for each individual for all periods of Navy service potentially involving radiation exposure. Deaths were ascertained through 1995 by searches of multiple national mortality databases. Within-cohort dose-response relationships for cancer mortality were estimated using linear Poisson regression models. Individual level smoking status was not available so cancer risks were estimated separately for cancers with and without previously published evidence of consistently moderate or strong associations with smoking.

RESULTS

A total of 584 cancer deaths occurred during a follow-up period of up to 27 years. The mean and median cumulative occupational radiation doses received while in the Navy were 5.7 and 1.1 milliSieverts (mSv) respectively, range 0-242 mSv. Mortality Excess Relative Risks (ERRs) per 10 mSv and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were 0.053 (CI -0.03, 0.17) for all cancers, 0.052 (CI -0.03, 0.18) for all solid cancers, and 0.003 (CI -0.29, 0.30) for leukemias excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia. The ERRs per 10 mSv were 0.052 (CI -0.07, 0.17) for cancers previously associated with smoking and 0.012 (CI -0.10, 0.12) for cancers that were not.

CONCLUSIONS

The ERR point estimates for solid cancers and leukemia were statistically compatible with those reported in previous published studies of other ionizing radiation-exposed and monitored cohorts, albeit with wide confidence intervals. This study, with high quality measurements of in-Navy occupational external IR doses, high follow-up proportion, and detailed IR dose-response analyses, is consistent with the premise of a small excess cancer risk from low-dose IR.

Mortality from Leukemia, Cancer and Heart Disease among U.S. Nuclear Power Plant Workers, 1957-2011

BACKGROUND

The aim of the Million Person Study (MPS) of Low Dose Health Effects is to examine the level of radiation risk for chronic exposures received gradually over time and not acutely as was the case for the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Nuclear power plant (NPP) workers comprise nearly 15 percent of the MPS. Leukemia, selected cancers, Parkinson's disease, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and other causes of death are evaluated.

METHODS AND MATERIAL

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Radiation Exposure Information and Reporting System (REIRS) and the Landauer, Inc. dosimetry databases identified 135,193 NPP workers first monitored 1957-1984. Annual personal dose equivalents [Hp(10)] were available for each worker. Radiation records from all places of employment were sought. Vital status was determined through 2011. Mean absorbed doses to red bone marrow (RBM), esophagus, lung, colon, brain and heart were estimated by adjusting the recorded Hp(10) for each worker by scaling factors, accounting for exposure geometry and energy of the incident gamma radiation. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated. Radiation risks were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Nearly 50% of workers were employed for more than 20 years. The mean duration of follow-up was 30.2 y. Overall, 29,076 total deaths occurred, 296 from leukemia other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), 3,382 from lung cancer, 140 from Parkinson's disease and 5,410 from IHD. The mean dose to RBM was 37.9 mGy (maximum 1.0 Gy; percent >100 mGy was 9.2%), 43.2 mGy to lung, 43.7 mGy to colon, 33.2 mGy to brain, and 43.9 mGy to heart. The SMRs (95% CI) were 1.06 (0.94;1.19) for leukemia other than CLL, 1.10 (1.07;1.14) for lung cancer, 0.90 (0.76;1.06) for Parkinson's disease, and 0.80 (0.78; 0.82) for IHD. The excess relative risk (ERR) per 100 mGy for leukemia other than CLL was 0.15 (90% CI 0.001; 0.31). For all solid cancers the ERR per 100 mGy (95% CI) was 0.01 (-0.03; 0.05), for lung cancer -0.04 (-0.11; 0.02), for Parkinson's disease 0.24 (-0.02; 0.50), and for IHD -0.01 (-0.06; 0.04).

CONCLUSION

Prolonged exposure to radiation increased the risk of leukemia other than CLL among NPP workers. There was little evidence for a radiation-association for all solid cancers, lung cancer or ischemic heart disease. Increased precision will be forthcoming as the different cohorts within the MPS are combined, such as industrial radiographers and medical radiation workers who were assembled and evaluated in like manner.

Mortality among uranium miners in North America and Europe: the Pooled Uranium Miners Analysis (PUMA)

BACKGROUND

The Pooled Uranium Miners Analysis (PUMA) study draws together information from cohorts of uranium miners from Canada, the Czech Republic, France, Germany and the USA.

METHODS

Vital status and cause of death were ascertained and compared with expectations based upon national mortality rates by computing standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) overall and by categories of time since first hire, calendar period of first employment and duration of employment as a miner.

RESULTS

There were 51 787 deaths observed among 118 329 male miners [SMR = 1.05; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04, 1.06]. The SMR was elevated for all cancers (n = 16 633, SMR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.21, 1.25), due primarily to excess mortality from cancers of the lung (n = 7756, SMR = 1.90; 95% CI: 1.86, 1.94), liver and gallbladder (n = 549, SMR = 1.15; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.25), larynx (n = 229, SMR = 1.10; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.26), stomach (n = 1058, SMR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.15) and pleura (n = 39, SMR = 1.06; 95% CI: 0.75, 1.44). Lung-cancer SMRs increased with duration of employment, decreased with calendar period and persisted with time since first hire. Among non-malignant causes, the SMR was elevated for external causes (n = 3362, SMR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.36, 1.46) and respiratory diseases (n = 4508, SMR = 1.32; 95% CI: 1.28, 1.36), most notably silicosis (n = 814, SMR = 13.56; 95% CI: 12.64, 14.52), but not chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (n = 1729, SMR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.93, 1.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Whereas there are important obstacles to the ability to detect adverse effects of occupational exposures via SMR analyses, PUMA provides evidence of excess mortality among uranium miners due to a range of categories of cause of death. The persistent elevation of SMRs with time since first hire as a uranium miner underscores the importance of long-term follow-up of these workers.

Epidemiological Studies of Low-Dose Ionizing Radiation and Cancer: Summary Bias Assessment and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Ionizing radiation is an established carcinogen, but risks from low-dose exposures are controversial. Since the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII review of the epidemiological data in 2006, many subsequent publications have reported excess cancer risks from low-dose exposures. Our aim was to systematically review these studies to assess the magnitude of the risk and whether the positive findings could be explained by biases.

METHODS

Eligible studies had mean cumulative doses of less than 100 mGy, individualized dose estimates, risk estimates, and confidence intervals (CI) for the dose-response and were published in 2006-2017. We summarized the evidence for bias (dose error, confounding, outcome ascertainment) and its likely direction for each study. We tested whether the median excess relative risk (ERR) per unit dose equals zero and assessed the impact of excluding positive studies with potential bias away from the null. We performed a meta-analysis to quantify the ERR and assess consistency across studies for all solid cancers and leukemia.

RESULTS

Of the 26 eligible studies, 8 concerned environmental, 4 medical, and 14 occupational exposure. For solid cancers, 16 of 22 studies reported positive ERRs per unit dose, and we rejected the hypothesis that the median ERR equals zero (P = .03). After exclusion of 4 positive studies with potential positive bias, 12 of 18 studies reported positive ERRs per unit dose (P  = .12). For leukemia, 17 of 20 studies were positive, and we rejected the hypothesis that the median ERR per unit dose equals zero (P  = .001), also after exclusion of 5 positive studies with potential positive bias (P  = .02). For adulthood exposure, the meta-ERR at 100 mGy was 0.029 (95% CI = 0.011 to 0.047) for solid cancers and 0.16 (95% CI = 0.07 to 0.25) for leukemia. For childhood exposure, the meta-ERR at 100 mGy for leukemia was 2.84 (95% CI = 0.37 to 5.32); there were only two eligible studies of all solid cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Our systematic assessments in this monograph showed that these new epidemiological studies are characterized by several limitations, but only a few positive studies were potentially biased away from the null. After exclusion of these studies, the majority of studies still reported positive risk estimates. We therefore conclude that these new epidemiological studies directly support excess cancer risks from low-dose ionizing radiation. Furthermore, the magnitude of the cancer risks from these low-dose radiation exposures was statistically compatible with the radiation dose-related cancer risks of the atomic bomb survivors.

Genetics of blood malignancies among Iranian population: an overview

BACKGROUND

Blood malignancies are among the leading causes of cancer related deaths in the world. Different environmental and genetic risk factors are involved in progression of blood malignancies. It has been shown that the lifestyle changes have affected the epidemiological patterns of these malignancies. Hematologic cancers are the 5th common cancer among Iranian population. It has been observed that there is a rising trend of blood malignancies incidences during the recent decades. Therefore, it is required to design novel diagnostic methods for the early detection of such malignancies in this population.

MAIN BODY

In present review we have summarized all of the significant genes which have been reported among Iranian patients with blood malignancies. The reported genes were categorized based on their cell and molecular functions to clarify the molecular biology and genetics of blood malignancies among Iranian patients.

CONCLUSION

It was observed that the epigenetic and immune response factors were the most frequent molecular processes associated with progression of blood malignancies among Iranian population. This review paves the way of introducing a population based panel of genetic markers for the early detection of blood malignancies in this population.

Burden of occupational morbidity from selected causes in the United States overall and by NORA industry sector, 2012: A conservative estimate

BACKGROUND

Timely and reliable national estimates of the occurrence of occupational injury and illness are needed to monitor the burden of occupational morbidity and mortality, establish research and intervention priorities, and evaluate the progress and effectiveness of prevention efforts.

METHODS

We provide updated estimates of morbidity from occupational injuries and selected illnesses, using current general population incidence rates, the proportion of the general public with a particular workplace exposure, and the relative risk of illness from that exposure. We provide estimates for the total U.S. working population and for specific industry sectors.

RESULTS

We estimate that, in 2012, between 5 712 362 and 5 961 620 total occupational cases, including 0.7 to 1.0 million incident illnesses and 5.0 million injuries, occurred in the United States.

CONCLUSION

The variety of disparate data sources and methods required to compile these estimates highlight the need for more comprehensive and compatible occupational health surveillance in the United States.

Risk of Leukemia Associated with Protracted Low-Dose Radiation Exposure: Updated Results from the National Registry for Radiation Workers Study

While the link between risk of leukemia and acute radiation exposure is well established for large doses received acutely, uncertainty remains around the translation of these risk estimates to occupational exposure scenarios where the doses are low and accumulated over time, possibly over many years. We present leukemia incidence and mortality radiation risk estimates derived from the National Registry for Radiation Workers, which is a large cohort of occupationally exposed workers from the United Kingdom (UK). The cohort comprised 173,081 workers from the UK who were monitored for occupational exposure to radiation. The cohort was followed for a total of 5.3 million person-years and the incidence and mortality due to leukemia was identified through to the end of follow-up in 2011. Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between cumulative radiation dose and leukemia mortality and incidence rates using excess relative risk (ERR) and excess additive risk (EAR) models. The results of this work showed a collective dose of 4,414 person-Sv accumulated by the cohort with an average cumulative dose of 25.5 mSv. Among male workers both the ERR and EAR models showed evidence of increased leukemia risk (excluding chronic lymphatic leukemia) associated with increasing cumulative dose. The ERR was 1.38 per Sv (90% CI: 0.04; 3.24) and EAR was 1.33 per 10,000 person-year-Sv (90% CI: 0.04; 2.89) when a linear model was used. These excess risks were driven by increased risks for chronic myeloid leukemia [ERR/Sv = 6.77 (90% CI: 2.14; 15.44)]. In conclusion, this study provides further evidence that leukemia risks may be increased by low-dose and protracted external radiation exposure. The risks are generally consistent with those observed in the atomic bomb survivor studies, as well as with risk coefficients on which international radiation safety standards, including the dose limits and constraints used to control exposures, are based.

Recent Epidemiologic Studies and the Linear No-Threshold Model For Radiation Protection-Considerations Regarding NCRP Commentary 27

National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements Commentary 27 examines recent epidemiologic data primarily from low-dose or low dose-rate studies of low linear-energy-transfer radiation and cancer to assess whether they support the linear no-threshold model as used in radiation protection. The commentary provides a critical review of low-dose or low dose-rate studies, most published within the last 10 y, that are applicable to current occupational, environmental, and medical radiation exposures. The strengths and weaknesses of the epidemiologic methods, dosimetry assessments, and statistical modeling of 29 epidemiologic studies of total solid cancer, leukemia, breast cancer, and thyroid cancer, as well as heritable effects and a few nonmalignant conditions, were evaluated. An appraisal of the degree to which the low-dose or low dose-rate studies supported a linear no-threshold model for radiation protection or on the contrary, demonstrated sufficient evidence that the linear no-threshold model is inappropriate for the purposes of radiation protection was also included. The review found that many, though not all, studies of solid cancer supported the continued use of the linear no-threshold model in radiation protection. Evaluations of the principal studies of leukemia and low-dose or low dose-rate radiation exposure also lent support for the linear no-threshold model as used in protection. Ischemic heart disease, a major type of cardiovascular disease, was examined briefly, but the results of recent studies were considered too weak or inconsistent to allow firm conclusions regarding support of the linear no-threshold model. It is acknowledged that the possible risks from very low doses of low linear-energy-transfer radiation are small and uncertain and that it may never be possible to prove or disprove the validity of the linear no-threshold assumption by epidemiologic means. Nonetheless, the preponderance of recent epidemiologic data on solid cancer is supportive of the continued use of the linear no-threshold model for the purposes of radiation protection. This conclusion is in accord with judgments by other national and international scientific committees, based on somewhat older data. Currently, no alternative dose-response relationship appears more pragmatic or prudent for radiation protection purposes than the linear no-threshold model.

Implications of recent epidemiologic studies for the linear nonthreshold model and radiation protection

The recently published NCRP Commentary No. 27 evaluated the new information from epidemiologic studies as to their degree of support for applying the linear nonthreshold (LNT) model of carcinogenic effects for radiation protection purposes (NCRP 2018 Implications of Recent Epidemiologic Studies for the Linear Nonthreshold Model and Radiation Protection, Commentary No. 27 (Bethesda, MD: National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements)). The aim was to determine whether recent epidemiologic studies of low-LET radiation, particularly those at low doses and/or low dose rates (LD/LDR), broadly support the LNT model of carcinogenic risk or, on the contrary, demonstrate sufficient evidence that the LNT model is inappropriate for the purposes of radiation protection. An updated review was needed because a considerable number of reports of radiation epidemiologic studies based on new or updated data have been published since other major reviews were conducted by national and international scientific committees. The Commentary provides a critical review of the LD/LDR studies that are most directly applicable to current occupational, environmental and medical radiation exposure circumstances. This Memorandum summarises several of the more important LD/LDR studies that incorporate radiation dose responses for solid cancer and leukemia that were reviewed in Commentary No. 27. In addition, an overview is provided of radiation studies of breast and thyroid cancers, and cancer after childhood exposures. Non-cancers are briefly touched upon such as ischemic heart disease, cataracts, and heritable genetic effects. To assess the applicability and utility of the LNT model for radiation protection, the Commentary evaluated 29 epidemiologic studies or groups of studies, primarily of total solid cancer, in terms of strengths and weaknesses in their epidemiologic methods, dosimetry approaches, and statistical modelling, and the degree to which they supported a LNT model for continued use in radiation protection. Recommendations for how to make epidemiologic radiation studies more informative are outlined. The NCRP Committee recognises that the risks from LD/LDR exposures are small and uncertain. The Committee judged that the available epidemiologic data were broadly supportive of the LNT model and that at this time no alternative dose-response relationship appears more pragmatic or prudent for radiation protection purposes.

Exposure to ambient air pollution in Canada and the risk of adult leukemia

There is a paucity of studies investigating adult leukemia and air pollution. To address this gap, we analyzed data from a Canadian population-based case-control study conducted in 1994-1997. Cases were 1064 adults with incident leukemia and controls were 5039 healthy adults. We used data from satellites and fixed-site monitoring stations to estimate residential concentrations of NO2 and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for the period prior to diagnosis, starting in 1975 and ending in 1994. We modeled the average annual exposure of each subject. Odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using logistic regression, adjusted for age, gender, province, smoking, education, body mass index, income, and self-reported exposures to ionizing radiation and benzene. We found an 'n-shaped' response function between exposure to NO2 and all forms of leukemia: from the tenth percentile to the median (4.51 to 14.66 ppb), the OR was 1.20; 95% CI: 0.97-1.48 and from the 75th percentile to the 90th (22.75 to 29.7 ppb), the OR was 0.79; 95% CI 0.68-0.93. For PM2.5 we found a response function consistent with a linear model, with an OR per 10 μg/m(3) of 0.97 (95% CI 0.75-1.26). For chronic lymphocytic leukemia we found response functions that were consistent with a simple linear model, with an OR per 5 ppb of NO2 of 0.93 (95% CI 0.86-1.00) and an OR per 10 μg/m(3) of PM2.5 of 0.62 (95% CI 0.42-0.93). In summary, for chronic lymphocytic leukemia we found no evidence of an association with air pollution and with all forms of leukemia we found weak evidence of an association only at low concentrations of NO2. It is possible that these inconsistent results may have arisen because of unaccounted urban/rural differences or possibly from a selection effect, especially among controls.

A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident

We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in the first year and continuing exposure, the lifetime radiation-related cancer risks based on lifetime dose (which are highest for children under 5 years of age at initial exposure), are small, and much smaller than the lifetime baseline cancer risks. For example, after initial exposure at age 1 year, the lifetime excess radiation risk and baseline risk of all solid cancers in females were estimated to be 0.7 · 10(-2) and 29.0 · 10(-2), respectively. The 15 year risks based on the lifetime reference dose are very small. However, for initial exposure in childhood, the 15 year risks based on the lifetime reference dose are up to 33 and 88% as large as the 15 year baseline risks for leukemia and thyroid cancer, respectively. The results may be scaled to particular dose estimates after consideration of caveats. One caveat is related to the lack of epidemiological evidence defining risks at low doses, because the predicted risks come from cancer risk models fitted to a wide dose range (0-4 Gy), which assume that the solid cancer and leukemia lifetime risks for doses less than about 0.5 Gy and 0.2 Gy, respectively, are proportional to organ/tissue doses: this is unlikely to seriously underestimate risks, but may overestimate risks. This WHO-HRA framework may be used to update the risk estimates, when new population health statistics data, dosimetry information and radiation risk models become available.

The relation between cigarette smoking and risk of acute myeloid leukemia: an updated meta-analysis of epidemiological studies

Smoking has been postulated as an environmental risk factor for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The primary objective of this meta-analysis of observational studies was to evaluate the epidemiologic relationship between smoking and the risk of development of AML. Twenty-three studies published between January 1993 and December 2013 were included in our analysis, and accounted for 7,746 cases of AML. The outcome of interest was the relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) of developing AML in adult cigarette smokers in comparison with non-smokers, and was estimated using the random-effects model. Our results showed that current and ever smokers have 40% (RR 1.40, 95% CI 1.22-1.60; P < 0.001) and 25% (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.15-1.36; P < 0.001) increased risk of developing AML when compared with non-smokers. The increased RR of AML was increased regardless of sex, study design, geographical region, and quality of the studies. Intensity of smoking of <10, 10-20, 20-30, and >30 cigarettes per day was associated with RRs of AML of 1.27, 1.36, 1.55, and 1.77, respectively (P < 0.001 for trend). Duration of smoking of <20 and >20 years was associated with RRs of 1.07 and 1.44, respectively (P < 0.001 for trend). Cumulative smoking of <10, 10-20, 20-30, and >30 pack-years was associated with RRs of 1.13, 1.23, 1.39, and 1.71, respectively (P < 0.001 for trend). Overall, cigarette smoking proves to be a significant risk factor for the development of AML in adults.

Radiation impacts on human health: certain, fuzzy, and unknown

The atomic bomb and other studies have established with certainty that moderate-to-high doses of radiation cause many types of solid cancer and leukemia. Moving down the dose range to the vicinity of 100-200 mSv, the risks become fuzzy and then unknown at low doses on the order of 10-20 mSv. Nor have low-dose experimental studies provided definitive answers: some have suggested there may be adverse biological effects in the range of 5-50 mSv, while others support a "no risk" interpretation. Epidemiologic data contain intrinsic "noise" (variation by known and unknown factors related to genetics, lifestyle, other environmental exposures, sociodemographics, diagnostic accuracy, etc.) so are generally too insensitive to provide compelling answers in the low-dose range. However, there have been recent provocative reports regarding risk from relatively low-dose occupational and medical radiation exposures that warrant careful consideration. Summaries of the largest studies with low-dose or low dose-rate radiation exposure provide suggestive evidence of risk for solid cancer and stronger evidence for leukemia risk. Recently, interest in health endpoints other than cancer also has risen sharply, in particular the degree of cardiovascular and cataract risk following doses under 1 Sv. Data regarding cardiovascular disease are limited and fuzzy, with suggestions of inconsistencies, and the risk at low doses is essentially unknown. The evidence of cataract risk after low dose-rate exposures among those conducting interventional medical radiological procedures is becoming strong. The magnitude of radiation impacts on human health requires fuller documentation, especially for low-dose or low dose-rate exposures. From the epidemiologic vantage point, this will require longer observation of existing irradiated cohorts and development of new informative cohorts, improved accuracy in dose assessments, more attention to confounding variables, and more biosamples from irradiated groups to enable translational radiobiological studies. Introduction of Radiation Impacts on Human Health (Video 2:02, http://links.lww.com/HP/A35).

Mining gene expression data for pollutants (dioxin, toluene, formaldehyde) and low dose of gamma-irradiation

General and specific effects of molecular genetic responses to adverse environmental factors are not well understood. This study examines genome-wide gene expression profiles of Drosophila melanogaster in response to ionizing radiation, formaldehyde, toluene, and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin. We performed RNA-seq analysis on 25,415 transcripts to measure the change in gene expression in males and females separately. An analysis of the genes unique to each treatment yielded a list of genes as a gene expression signature. In the case of radiation exposure, both sexes exhibited a reproducible increase in their expression of the transcription factors sugarbabe and tramtrack. The influence of dioxin up-regulated metabolic genes, such as anachronism, CG16727, and several genes with unknown function. Toluene activated a gene involved in the response to the toxins, Cyp12d1-p; the transcription factor Fer3's gene; the metabolic genes CG2065, CG30427, and CG34447; and the genes Spn28Da and Spn3, which are responsible for reproduction and immunity. All significantly differentially expressed genes, including those shared among the stressors, can be divided into gene groups using Gene Ontology Biological Process identifiers. These gene groups are related to defense response, biological regulation, the cell cycle, metabolic process, and circadian rhythms. KEGG molecular pathway analysis revealed alteration of the Notch signaling pathway, TGF-beta signaling pathway, proteasome, basal transcription factors, nucleotide excision repair, Jak-STAT signaling pathway, circadian rhythm, Hippo signaling pathway, mTOR signaling pathway, ribosome, mismatch repair, RNA polymerase, mRNA surveillance pathway, Hedgehog signaling pathway, and DNA replication genes. Females and, to a lesser extent, males actively metabolize xenobiotics by the action of cytochrome P450 when under the influence of dioxin and toluene. Finally, in this work we obtained gene expression signatures pollutants (dioxin, toluene), low dose of gamma-irradiation and common molecular pathways for different kind of stressors.

Chronic low dose-rate radiation down-regulates transcription related to mitosis and chromosomal movement similar to acute high dose in prostate cells

PURPOSE

Despite concerns over risks from exposure to low-dose ionizing radiations encountered in the environment and workplace, the molecular consequences of these exposures, particularly at representative doses and dose-rates, remains poorly understood.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using a novel flood source construct, we performed a direct comparison of genome-wide gene expression regulations resulting from exposure of primary human prostate fibroblast cultures to acute (10 cGy and 200 cGy) and longer-term chronic (1.0-2.45 cGy cumulative over 24 h) exposures.

RESULTS

Expression profiling showed significant differential regulation of 396 genes with no measureable changes in the acute 10 cGy dose. However, there were 106 genes in common between samples given an acute 200 cGy dose compared to those given chronic doses, most of which were decreased and related to cell cycle or chromosomal movement in M-phase. Biological pathway analysis showed decreases in cell cycle, chromosomal movement, cell survival and DNA replication, recombination and repair as well as a predicted activation of transcriptional regulators TP53, RB1 and CDKN2A. In agreement with these results, prostate epithelial cells given 200 cGy or chronic doses displayed functional decreases in proliferation and mitotic cells.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, we showed a contrast to the common observation of constant or reduced effect per unit dose as the dose (acute) was diminished, that even very low total doses delivered chronically could rival the perturbing effect of acute doses 100 times as intense. Underscored is the importance of the means of dose delivery, shown to be as important as dose size when considering biologic effect.

Leukaemia incidence in the Techa River Cohort: 1953-2007

BACKGROUND

Little is known about leukaemia risk following chronic radiation exposures at low dose rates. The Techa River Cohort of individuals residing in riverside villages between 1950 and 1961 when releases from the Mayak plutonium production complex contaminated the river allows quantification of leukaemia risks associated with chronic low-dose-rate internal and external exposures.

METHODS

Excess relative risk models described the dose-response relationship between radiation dose on the basis of updated dose estimates and the incidence of haematological malignancies ascertained between 1953 and 2007 among 28 223 cohort members, adjusted for attained age, sex, and other factors.

RESULTS

Almost half of the 72 leukaemia cases (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL)) were estimated to be associated with radiation exposure. These data are consistent with a linear dose response with no evidence of modification. The excess relative risk estimate was 0.22 per 100 mGy. There was no evidence of significant dose effect for CLL or other haematopoietic malignancies.

CONCLUSION

These analyses demonstrate that radiation exposures, similar to those received by populations exposed as a consequence of nuclear accidents, are associated with long-term dose-related increases in leukaemia risks. Using updated dose estimates, the leukaemia risk per unit dose is about half of that based on previous dosimetry.

Radiation risk from CT: implications for cancer screening

OBJECTIVE

The cancer risks associated with patient exposure to radiation from medical imaging have become a major topic of debate. The higher doses necessary for technologies such as CT and the increasing utilization of these technologies further increase medical radiation exposure to the population. Furthermore, the use of CT for population-based cancer screening continues to be explored for common malignancies such as lung cancer and colorectal cancer. Given the known carcinogenic effects of ionizing radiation, this warrants evaluation of the balance between the benefit of early cancer detection and the risk of screening-induced malignancy.

CONCLUSION

This report provides a brief review of the process of radiation carcino-genesis and the literature evaluating the risk of malignancy from CT, with a focus on the risks and benefits of CT for cancer screening. The available data suggest a small but real risk of radiation-induced malignancy from CT that could become significant at the population level with widespread use of CT-based screening. However, a growing body of literature suggests that the benefits of CT screening for lung cancer in high-risk patients and CT colonography for colorectal cancer may significantly outweigh the radiation risk. Future studies evaluating the benefits of CT screening should continue to consider potential radiation risks.

Childhood infectious diseases and risk of leukaemia in an adult population

Our study is aimed at investigating the association between common childhood infectious diseases (measles, chickenpox, rubella, mumps and pertussis) and the risk of developing leukaemia in an adult population. A reanalysis of a large population-based case-control study was carried out. Original data included 1,771 controls and 649 leukaemia cases from 11 Italian areas. To contain recall bias, the analysis was restricted to subjects directly interviewed and with a good quality interview (1,165 controls and 312 cases). Odds ratios (ORs) and their related 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated by unconditional polychotomous logistic regression model adjusting for age, gender and occupational and lifestyle exposures. A protective effect of at least one infection (OR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.45-0.97), measles (OR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.39-0.82) and pertussis (OR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.45-0.98) was observed for chronic lymphoid leukaemia (CLL). The number of infections was strongly inversely associated with the risk of CLL (p = 0.002, test for trend). With regard to the other types of leukaemia, only a protective effect of pertussis was observed for AML (OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.32-0.87). Our results pointed out a protective role of childhood infectious diseases on the risk of CLL in adults. Although a specific antioncogenic effect of some infectious disease, especially measles, cannot be ruled out, the observed decrease of risk with increasing number of infections suggests that a more general "hygiene hypothesis" could be the most likely explanation of the detected association. The protective role of pertussis remains to be elucidated.

Chernobyl cleanup workers from Estonia: follow-up for cancer incidence and mortality

This study examined cancer incidence (1986-2008) and mortality (1986-2011) among the Estonian Chernobyl cleanup workers in comparison with the Estonian male population. The cohort of 4810 men was followed through nationwide population, mortality and cancer registries. Cancer and death risks were measured by standardised incidence ratio (SIR) and standardised mortality ratio (SMR), respectively. Poisson regression was used to analyse the effects of year of arrival, duration of stay and time since return on cancer and death risks. The SIR for all cancers was 1.06 with 95% confidence interval 0.93-1.20 (232 cases). Elevated risks were found for cancers of the pharynx, the oesophagus and the joint category of alcohol-related sites. No clear evidence of an increased risk of thyroid cancer, leukaemia or radiation-related cancer sites combined was apparent. The SMR for all causes of death was 1.02 with 95% confidence interval 0.96-1.08 (1018 deaths). Excess mortality was observed for mouth and pharynx cancer, alcohol-related cancer sites together and suicide. Duration of stay rather than year of arrival was associated with increased mortality. Twenty-six years of follow-up of this cohort indicates no definite health effects attributable to radiation, but the elevated suicide risk has persisted.

Mortality associated with chronic external radiation exposure in the French combined cohort of nuclear workers

OBJECTIVE

The long-term effects of protracted low level ionising radiation exposure are investigated in a combined analysis of French nuclear workers employed by the Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique (CEA), AREVA Nuclear Cycle (AREVA NC) and Electricité de France (EDF). Associations between cumulative external radiation dose and mortality due to solid cancers, leukaemia and circulatory disease were examined.

METHODS

All workers hired by CEA, AREVA NC and EDF between 1950 and 1994 who were employed for at least 1 year, badge-monitored for radiation exposure and alive on 1 January 1968 were included. Individual data of annual exposure to penetrating photons (X-rays and gamma rays) were reconstructed for each worker. Estimates of radiation dose-mortality associations were obtained using a linear excess relative risk (ERR) Poisson regression model.

RESULTS

Among the 59 021 nuclear workers, 2312 died of solid cancer, 78 of leukaemia and 1468 of circulatory diseases during the 1968-2004 period. Approximately 72% of the cohort had a non-zero cumulative radiation dose estimate, with a mean cumulative dose of 22.5 mSv. Positive but non-significant ERR/Sv were observed for all solid cancers, leukaemia excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL), ischaemic heart diseases and cerebrovascular diseases. A significant ERR/Sv was found for myeloid leukaemia.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first combined analysis of major French cohorts of nuclear workers. Results were consistent with risks estimated in other nuclear worker cohorts and illustrate the potential of a further joint international study to yield direct risk estimates in support to radiation protection standards.

Potential impacts of radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays on childhood leukemia in France: a quantitative risk assessment

Previous epidemiological studies and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) have suggested that natural background radiation may be a cause of childhood leukemia. The present work uses a QRA approach to predict the excess risk of childhood leukemia in France related to three components of natural radiation: radon, cosmic rays and terrestrial gamma rays, using excess relative and absolute risk models proposed by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Both models were developed from the Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Previous risk assessments were extended by considering uncertainties in radiation-related leukemia risk model parameters as part of this process, within a Bayesian framework. Estimated red bone marrow doses cumulated during childhood by the average French child due to radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays are 4.4, 7.5 and 4.3 mSv, respectively. The excess fractions of cases (expressed as percentages) associated with these sources of natural radiation are 20 % [95 % credible interval (CI) 0-68 %] and 4 % (95 % CI 0-11 %) under the excess relative and excess absolute risk models, respectively. The large CIs, as well as the different point estimates obtained under these two models, highlight the uncertainties in predictions of radiation-related childhood leukemia risks. These results are only valid provided that models developed from the LSS can be transferred to the population of French children and to chronic natural radiation exposures, and must be considered in view of the currently limited knowledge concerning other potential risk factors for childhood leukemia. Last, they emphasize the need for further epidemiological investigations of the effects of natural radiation on childhood leukemia to reduce uncertainties and help refine radiation protection standards.

Shrinkage methods enhanced the accuracy of parameter estimation using Cox models with small number of events

OBJECTIVE

When the number of events is small during Cox regression analysis, it is unclear what alternative analytical strategies can be used and when this type of alternative approach is needed. This study explores several analytical strategies in this situation.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Simulations and sensitivity analyses were performed on data with numbers of events per predictive variable (EPVs) below 10 using a Cox model with a partial likelihood (PL), Firth's penalized likelihood, or the Bayesian approach.

RESULTS

For scenarios involving binary predictors with an EPV of six or less, the simulations showed that the Firth and Bayesian approaches were more accurate than was PL. The performances of various approaches were similar when the EPV was greater than six in the binary predictor. Furthermore, the performances involving continuous predictors were similar, regardless of the EPV. The bias and precision of the parameter estimates using Bayesian analysis depended on the selection of priors.

CONCLUSIONS

When the EPV is six or less, the results for categorical predictors tend to be too conservative. Firth's estimator may be a good alternative in this situation. Appropriate choices of priors when using Bayesian analysis should increase the accuracy of the parameter estimates, although this requires expertise.

Leukemia risk associated with chronic external exposure to ionizing radiation in a French cohort of nuclear workers

Leukemia is one of the earliest cancer effects observed after acute exposure to relatively high doses of ionizing radiation. Leukemia mortality after external exposure at low doses and low-dose rates has been investigated at the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) and Nuclear Fuel Company (AREVA NC) after an additional follow-up of 10 years. The cohort included radiation-monitored workers employed for at least one year during 1950-1994 at CEA or AREVA NC and followed during 1968-2004. Association between external exposure and leukemia mortality was estimated with excess relative risk (ERR) models and time-dependent modifying factors were investigated with time windows. The cohort included 36,769 workers, followed for an average of 28 years, among whom 73 leukemia deaths occurred. Among the workers with a positive recorded dose, the mean cumulative external dose was 21.7 mSv. Results under a 2-year lag assumption suggested that the risk of leukemia (except chronic lymphatic leukemia) increased significantly by 8% per 10 mSv. The magnitude of the association for myeloid leukemia was larger. The higher ERR/Sv for doses received 2-14 years earlier suggest that time since exposure modifies the effect. The ERR/Sv also appeared higher for doses received at exposure rates ≥20 mSv per year. These results are consistent with those found in other studies of nuclear workers. However, confidence intervals are still wide. Further analyses should be conducted in pooled cohorts of nuclear workers.

Risk of leukaemia mortality from exposure to ionising radiation in US nuclear workers: a pooled case-control study

OBJECTIVE

To follow-up on earlier studies of the leukaemogenicity of occupational ionising radiation exposure.

METHODS

We conducted a nested case-control analysis of leukaemia mortality in a pooled cohort of US nuclear workers followed through 2005. Each case was matched to four controls on attained age. Exposures were estimated from available records. General relative risk models were used to estimate the excess relative risk (ERR) of leukaemia, excluding chronic lymphocytic (CLL), acute myeloid leukaemia, chronic myeloid leukaemia and CLL while controlling for potential confounders. Preferred exposure lags and time-windows of risks were calculated using joint maximum likelihood. Dose-response was also examined using linear, linear-quadratic, categorical and restricted cubic spline models.

RESULTS

There were 369 leukaemia deaths in 105 245 US nuclear workers. The adjusted ERR for non-CLL leukaemia was 0.09 (95% CI -0.17 to 0.65) per 100 mGy. Elevated non-CLL risks were observed from exposures occurring 6-14 years prior to attained age of cases (ERR per 100 mGy=1.9; 95% CI <0 to 8.0). Lagged models indicated non-linearity of risk at very low (<10 mGy) and high (>100 mGy) doses, which contributed to the imprecision of results in linear models. Similar risk attenuation was not evident in time-windows-based models.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk estimates were in reasonable agreement with previous estimates, with the temporality of non-CLL leukaemia risk as a dominant factor in dose-response analyses. Future research should focus on methods that improve evaluations of the dose-response, particularly in the low-dose range.

Diagnostic medical imaging radiation exposure and risk of development of solid and hematologic malignancy

Limiting patients' exposure to ionizing radiation during diagnostic imaging is of concern to patients and clinicians. Large single-dose exposures and cumulative exposures to ionizing radiation have been associated with solid tumors and hematologic malignancy. Although these associations have been a driving force in minimizing patients' exposure, significant risks are found when diagnoses are missed and subsequent treatment is withheld. Therefore, based on epidemiologic data obtained after nuclear and occupational exposures, dose exposure limits have been estimated. A recent collaborative effort between the US Food and Drug Administration and the American College of Radiology has provided information and tools that patients and imaging professionals can use to avoid unnecessary ionizing radiation scans and ensure use of the lowest feasible radiation dose necessary for studies. Further collaboration, research, and development should focus on producing technological advances that minimize individual study exposures and duplicate studies. This article outlines the research used to govern safe radiation doses, defines recent initiatives in decreasing radiation exposure, and provides orthopedic surgeons with techniques that may help decrease radiation exposure in their daily practice.

Incidence and mortality trends of leukemia and lymphoma in Croatia, 1988-2009

AIM

To investigate the time trends of leukemia and lymphoma in Croatia from 1988-2009, compare them with trends in other populations, and identify possible changes.

METHODS

The data sources were the Croatian National Cancer Registry for incidence data, Croatian Bureau of Statistics for the numbers of deaths, and United Nations population estimates. Joinpoint regression analysis using the age-standardized rates was used to analyze incidence and mortality trends.

RESULTS

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia and chronic lymphocytic leukemia incidence did not significantly change. Acute myeloid leukemia incidence significantly increased in women, with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of 2.6% during the whole period, and in men since 1998, with EAPC of 3.2%. Chronic myeloid leukemia incidence significantly decreased in women (EAPC -3.7%) and remained stable in men. Mortality rates were stable for both lymphoid and myeloid leukemia in both sexes. Hodgkin lymphoma non-significantly increased in incidence and significantly decreased in mortality (EAPCs of -5.6% in men and -3.7% in women). Non-Hodgkin lymphoma significantly increased in incidence in women (EAPC 3.2%) and non-significantly in men and in mortality in both men (EAPC 1.6%) and women (EAPC 1.8%).

CONCLUSION

While Croatia had similar leukemia and lymphoma incidence trends as the other countries, the mortality trends were less favorable than in Western Europe. The lack of declines of leukemia incidence and non-Hodgkin lymphoma mortality could be attributed to late introduction of optimal therapies. As currently the most up-to-date diagnostics and treatments are available and covered by health insurance, we expect more favorable trends in the future.

Radiation risks: critical analysis and commentary

OBJECTIVES

1) To review and summarize what is known about the health risks of radiation. 2) To compare risks from medical imaging to background radiation and to exposure from nuclear accidents.

METHODS

Literature review and summative critical analysis.

RESULTS

Over the past several years, physicians and patients have become increasingly aware of the potential risks of radiation exposure from medical imaging. The Fukushima disaster further heightened public awareness of hazards associated with radiation and radioactivity. In the case of medical imaging, small but real risks of cancer and other radiation-induced disease must be balanced against potential benefits of improved diagnostic accuracy. The ethical principle of autonomy tells us that patients should be informed of potential benefits and harms of radiation imaging, and should participate in shared decision making. In the case of nuclear power, benefits and especially harms are exceptionally difficult to estimate accurately. Nevertheless, we know that hazards from today's nuclear power plants will persist for many years, affecting future generations not benefiting from electrical power generated today.

CONCLUSIONS

A deeper and more widespread understanding of potential benefits and harms of personal and societal choices relating to radiation exposure may lead to improved medical and societal decision-making.

Multi-model inference of adult and childhood leukaemia excess relative risks based on the Japanese A-bomb survivors mortality data (1950-2000)

Some relatively new issues that augment the usual practice of ignoring model uncertainty, when making inference about parameters of a specific model, are brought to the attention of the radiation protection community here. Nine recently published leukaemia risk models, developed with the Japanese A-bomb epidemiological mortality data, have been included in a model-averaging procedure so that the main conclusions do not depend on just one type of model or statistical test. The models have been centred here at various adult and young ages at exposure, for some short times since exposure, in order to obtain specially computed childhood Excess Relative Risks (ERR) with uncertainties that account for correlations in the fitted parameters associated with the ERR dose-response. The model-averaged ERR at 1 Sv was not found to be statistically significant for attained ages of 7 and 12 years but was statistically significant for attained ages of 17, 22 and 55 years. Consequently, such risks when applied to other situations, such as children in the vicinity of nuclear installations or in estimates of the proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence attributable to background radiation (i.e. low doses for young ages and short times since exposure), are only of very limited value, with uncertainty ranges that include zero risk. For example, assuming a total radiation dose to a 5-year-old child of 10 mSv and applying the model-averaged risk at 10 mSv for a 7-year-old exposed at 2 years of age would result in an ERR=0.33, 95% CI: -0.51 to 1.22. One model (United Nations scientific committee on the effects of atomic radiation report. Volume 1. Annex A: epidemiological studies of radiation and cancer, United Nations, New York, 2006) weighted model-averaged risks of leukaemia most strongly by half of the total unity weighting and is recommended for application in future leukaemia risk assessments that continue to ignore model uncertainty. However, on the basis of the analysis presented here, it is generally recommended to take model uncertainty into account in future risk analyses.