Prognostic value of routinely available data in patients with stable coronary heart disease. A 10-year follow-up of patients sampled at random times during their disease course

A screening method to spot biomarkers that may warn of serious events in a chronic disease - illustrated by cardiological CLARICOR trial data

OBJECTIVES

To develop a crude screening method for detecting biomarkers which frequently exhibit a rise (or fall) in level prior to a serious event (e.g. a stroke) in patients with a chronic disease, signalling that the biomarker may have an alarm-raising or prognostic potential. The subsequent assessment of the marker's clinical utility requires costly, difficult longitudinal studies. Therefore, initial screening of candidate-biomarkers is desirable.

METHODS

The method exploits a cohort of patients with biomarkers measured at entry and with recording of first serious event during follow-up. Copying those individual records onto a common timeline where a specific event occurs on the same day (Day 0) for all patients, the baseline biomarker level, when plotted against the patient's entry time on the revised timeline, will have a positive (negative) regression slope if biomarker levels generally rise (decline) the closer one gets to the event. As an example, we study 1,958 placebo-treated patients with stable coronary artery disease followed for nine years in the CLARICOR trial (NCT00121550), examining 11 newer biomarkers.

RESULTS

Rising average serum levels of cardiac troponin T and of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide were seen prior to a fatal cardiovascular outcome. C-reactive protein rose prior to non-cardiovascular death. Glomerular filtration rate, seven lipoproteins, and nine newer cardiological biomarkers did not show convincing changes.

CONCLUSIONS

For early detection of biomarkers with an alarm-raising potential in chronic diseases, we proposed the described easy procedure. Using only baseline biomarker values and clinical course of participants with coronary heart disease, we identified the same cardiovascular biomarkers as those previously found containing prognostic information using longitudinal or survival analysis.

Major Bleeding Events Are Stronger Predictors of Long-Term Mortality Than Coronary Events in Secondary Prevention Therapy for Ischaemic Heart Disease

Background

Secondary prevention of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is an important aspect of healthcare. To improve the prognosis of and control risk factors for IHD patients, we created a unique referral system called the Shizuoka IHD patient registry.

Methods

From 2009 to 2013, we enrolled 1240 patients; they participated in follow-up until 2018. The risk factor target values were as follows: low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol, <100 mg/dl; glycated haemoglobin of diabetes patients, <7%; systolic blood pressure, <130 mmHg; and diastolic blood pressure, <80 mmHg (mean follow-up interval, 2001 ± 794 days). The cumulative incidence rates were 10.8% for all-cause death (cardiac death, 1.5%), 15.7% for coronary events, and 2.6% for major bleeding. Patients were separated into the major bleeding group (n = 32), coronary event group (n = 195), and event-free group (n = 1013) without overlapping.

Results

We observed significant differences in age, rate antithrombotic drug use, and mortality. A Kaplan–Meier analysis of all-cause death showed significant differences between the event-free and major bleeding groups (P=0.002) and between the coronary event and major bleeding groups (P=0.026); there was no significant difference between the event-free and coronary event groups.

Conclusion

Major bleeding events were stronger predictors of long-term mortality than coronary events during the long-term follow-up of stable IHD.

Unique referral system contributes to long-term net clinical benefits in patients undergoing secondary prevention therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention

Cardiovascular disease, including ischemic heart disease, is a leading cause of death worldwide. Improvement of the secondary prevention of ischemic heart disease is necessary. We established a unique referral system to connect hospitals and outpatient clinics to coordinate care between general practitioners and cardiologists. Here, we evaluated the impact and long-term benefits of our system for ischemic heart disease patients undergoing secondary prevention therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention. This single-center retrospective observational study included 3658 consecutive patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention at Shizuoka City Hospital between 2010 and 2019. After percutaneous coronary intervention, patients were considered conventional outpatients (conventional follow-up group) or subjected to our unique referral system (referral system group) at the attending cardiologist's discretion. To audit compliance of the treatment with the latest Japanese guidelines, we adopted a circulation-type referral system, whereby general practitioners needed to refer registered patients at least once a year, even if no cardiac events occurred. Clinical events in each patient were evaluated. Net adverse clinical events were defined as a combination of major adverse cardiac, cerebrovascular, and major bleeding events. There were 2241 and 1417 patients in the conventional follow-up and referral system groups, with mean follow-ups of 1255 and 1548 days and cumulative net adverse clinical event incidences of 27.6% and 21.5%, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the occurrence of net adverse clinical events was significantly lower in the referral system group than in the conventional follow-up group (log-rank: P<0.001). Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that the unique referral system was a significant predictor of the net clinical benefits (hazard ratio: 0.56, 95% confidence interval: 0.37-0.83, P = 0.004). This result was consistent after propensity-score matching. In summary, our unique referral system contributed to long-term net clinical benefits for the secondary prevention of ischemic heart disease after percutaneous coronary intervention.

Prognostic value of 12 novel cardiological biomarkers in stable coronary artery disease. A 10-year follow-up of the placebo group of the Copenhagen CLARICOR trial

OBJECTIVE

To assess if 12 novel circulating biomarkers, when added to 'standard predictors' available in general practice, could improve the 10-year prediction of cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with stable coronary heart disease.

DESIGN

The patients participated as placebo receiving patients in the randomised clarithromycin for patients with stable coronary artery disease (CLARICOR) trial at a random time in their disease trajectory.

SETTING

Five Copenhagen University cardiology departments and a coordinating centre.

PARTICIPANTS

1998 participants with stable coronary artery disease.

OUTCOMES

Death and composite of myocardial infarction, unstable angina pectoris, cerebrovascular disease and death.

RESULTS

When only 'standard predictors' were included, 83.4% of all-cause death predictions and 68.4% of composite outcome predictions were correct. Log(calprotectin) and log(cathepsin-S) were not associated (p≥0.01) with the outcomes, not even as single predictors. Adding the remaining 10 biomarkers (high-sensitive assay cardiac troponin T; neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin; osteoprotegerin; N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; tumour necrosis factor receptor 1 and 2; pregnancy-associated plasma protein A; endostatin; YKL40; cathepsin-B), which were all individually significantly associated with the prediction of the two outcomes, increased the figures to 84.7% and 69.7%.

CONCLUSION

When 'standard predictors' routinely available in general practices are used for risk assessment in consecutively sampled patients with stable coronary artery disease, the addition of 10 novel biomarkers to the prediction model improved the correct prediction of all-cause death and the composite outcome by <1.5%.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT00121550.

Prognosis and Reclassification by YKL-40 in Stable Coronary Artery Disease

Background

The inflammatory biomarker YKL‐40 has previously been studied as a potential risk marker in cardiovascular disease. We aimed to assess the prognostic reclassification potential of serum YKL‐40 in patients with stable coronary artery disease.

Methods and Results

The main study population was the placebo group of the CLARICOR (Effect of Clarithromycin on Mortality and Morbidity in Patients With Ischemic Heart Disease) trial. The primary outcome was a composite of acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina pectoris, cerebrovascular disease, and all‐cause mortality. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for C‐reactive protein level and baseline cardiovascular risk factors. Improvement in prediction by adding serum YKL‐40 to the risk factors was calculated using the Cox‐Breslow method and c‐statistic. A total of 2200 patients were randomized to placebo, with a follow‐up duration of 10 years. YKL‐40 was associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome (hazard ratio per unit increase in (YKL‐40) 1.13, 95% CI 1.03–1.24, P=0.013) and all‐cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.32, 95% CI 1.17–1.49, P<0.0001). Considering whether a composite‐outcome event was more likely to have, or not have, occurred to date, we found 68.4% of such predictions to be correct when based on the standard predictors, and 68.5% when serum YKL‐40 was added as a predictor. Equivalent results were obtained with c‐statistics.

Conclusions

Higher serum YKL‐40 was independently associated with an increased risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes and mortality. Addition of YKL‐40 did not improve risk prediction in patients with stable coronary artery disease.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/. Unique identifier: NCT00121550.