A core set of risk factors in individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic literature review informing the EULAR points to consider for conducting clinical trials and observational studies in individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis

Predicting Rheumatoid Arthritis Development Using Hand Ultrasound and Machine Learning-A Two-Year Follow-Up Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are essential to prevent joint damage and enhance patient outcomes. Diagnosing RA in its early stages is challenging due to the nonspecific and variable clinical signs and symptoms. Our study aimed to identify the most predictive features of hand ultrasound (US) for RA development and assess the performance of machine learning models in diagnosing preclinical RA.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study with 326 adults who had experienced hand joint pain for less than 12 months and no clinical arthritis. We assessed the participants clinically and via hand US at baseline and followed them for 24 months. Clinical progression to RA was defined according to the ACR/EULAR criteria. Regression modeling and machine learning approaches were used to analyze the predictive US features.

RESULTS

Of the 326 participants (45.10 ± 11.37 years/83% female), 123 (37.7%) developed clinical RA during follow-up. At baseline, 84.6% of the progressors had US synovitis, whereas 16.3% of the non-progressors did (p < 0.0001). Only 5.7% of the progressors had positive PD. Multivariate analysis revealed that the radiocarpal synovial thickness (OR = 39.8), PIP/MCP synovitis (OR = 68 and 39), and wrist effusion (OR = 12.56) on US significantly increased the odds of developing RA. ML confirmed these US features, along with the RF and anti-CCP levels, as the most important predictors of RA.

CONCLUSIONS

Hand US can identify preclinical synovitis and determine the RA risk. The radiocarpal synovial thickness, PIP/MCP synovitis, wrist effusion, and RF and anti-CCP levels are associated with RA development.

Lymphocyte subset phenotyping for the prediction of progression to inflammatory arthritis in anti-citrullinated-peptide antibody-positive at-risk individuals

OBJECTIVES

Inflammatory arthritis (IA) is considered the last stage of a disease continuum, where features of systemic autoimmunity can appear years before clinical synovitis. Time to progression to IA varies considerably between at-risk individuals, therefore the identification of biomarkers predictive of progression is of major importance. We previously reported on the value of three CD4+T cell subsets as biomarkers of progression. Here, we aim to establish the value of 18 lymphocyte subsets (LS) for predicting progression to IA.

METHODS

Participants were recruited based on a new musculoskeletal complaint and being positive for anti-citrullinated-peptide antibody. Progression (over 10 years) was defined as the development of clinical synovitis. LS analysis was performed for lymphocyte lineages, naive/memory subsets, inflammation-related cells (IRC) and regulatory cells (Treg/B-reg). Modelling used logistic/Cox regressions.

RESULTS

Of 210 patients included, 93 (44%) progressed to IA, 41/93 (44%) within 12 months (rapid progressors). A total of 5/18 LS were associated with progression [Treg/CD4-naïve/IRC (adjusted P < 0.0001), CD8 (P = 0.021), B-reg (P = 0.015)] and three trends (NK-cells/memory-B-cells/plasmablasts). Unsupervised hierarchical clustering using these eight subsets segregated three clusters of patients, one cluster being enriched [63/109(58%)] and one poor [10/45(22%)] in progressors. Combining all clinical and LS variables, forward logistic regression predicted progression with accuracy = 85.7% and AUC = 0.911, selecting smoking/rheumatoid-factor/HLA-shared-epitope/tender-joint-count-78 and Treg/CD4-naive/CD8/NK-cells/B-reg/plasmablasts. To predict rapid progression, a Cox regression was performed resulting in a model combining smoking/rheumatoid factor and IRC/CD4-naive/Treg/NK-cells/CD8+T cells (AUC = 0.794).

CONCLUSION

Overall, progression was predicted by specific LS, suggesting potential triggers for events leading to the development of IA, while rapid progression was associated with a different set of subsets.

Utility of testing for third-generation anticyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP3) antibodies in individuals who present with new musculoskeletal symptoms but have a negative second-generation anticyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP2) antibody test

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the role of third-generation anticyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP3) antibodies in predicting progression to inflammatory arthritis (IA) in individuals with new musculoskeletal (MSK) symptoms and a negative second-generation anti-CCP antibody test (anti-CCP2-).

METHODS

469 anti-CCP2- individuals underwent baseline anti-CCP3 testing (QUANTA Lite CCP3; Inova Diagnostics) and received a post enrolment 12-month questionnaire. A rheumatologist confirmed or excluded diagnosis of IA. Univariable/multivariable analyses were performed to assess the value of anti-CCP3 in predicting IA development in these anti-CCP2- individuals.

RESULTS

Only 16/469 (3.4%) anti-CCP2- individuals had a positive anti-CCP3 test. Of these 16 individuals, 4 developed IA. In addition, 61/469 (13.0%) anti-CCP2- individuals self-reported, to have developed, IA. Progression was confirmed in 43/61 of them (70.5%); of whom 30/43 (69.8%) and 13/43 (30.2%) were given a diagnosis of IA and rheumatoid arthritis (RA), respectively. In qualitative univariable analysis, anti-CCP3 positivity was associated with self-reported progression (p<0.01) and IA (p=0.03), but not with RA. Anti-CCP3 levels differed significantly between progressors and non-progressors (p<0.01) for all three categories. At the manufacturer's cut-off, OR for progression ranged from 2.4 (95% CI 0.5 to 18.6; RA) to 7.5 (95% CI 2.3 to 24.0; self-reported progression). Interestingly, when cut-offs for anti-CCP3 were optimised, lower values (≥5 units) significantly increased the OR for progression in all three categories. In multivariable analysis, anti-CCP3 positivity at the manufacturer's cut-off did not remain associated with IA progression, while this lower cut-off value (≥5 units) was associated with diagnosis of RA (p=0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Anti-CCP3 testing could improve the prediction of IA development in anti-CCP2- individuals with new MSK symptoms.

'What is my risk really?': a qualitative exploration of preventive interventions among individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis

Objectives

Intervention in the pre-arthritis phase of RA could prevent or delay the onset of disease. The primary aim of this study was to explore perspectives of being at risk and potential preventive interventions among individuals at risk of developing RA and to identify factors influencing their engagement with prevention. A secondary aim, established during the analytical process, was to understand and compare different approaches to health-related behaviours related to prevention of RA.

Methods

Anti-CCP-positive (CCP+) at-risk individuals with musculoskeletal symptoms but no synovitis participated in semi-structured interviews. Data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis, followed by a secondary ideal-type analysis.

Results

Nineteen CCP+ at-risk individuals (10 women; age range 35-70 years) participated. Three overarching themes were identified: being CCP+ at risk; aiming to prevent RA; and influencers of engagement. Participants described distress related to symptoms and uncertainty about disease progression. Many participants had concerns about medication side effects. In contrast, most participants expressed willingness to make lifestyle changes with the aim of preventing RA. Engagement with preventive measures was influenced by symptom severity, personal risk level, co-morbidities, experiences of taking other medications/supplements, knowledge of RA, risk factors and medications, and perceived effort. Three types of participants were identified from the data: proactive preventers, change considerers and fearful avoiders. Overall orientation to health behaviours also impacted the attitude towards preventing RA.

Conclusion

Findings could inform recruitment and retention in RA prevention research and promote uptake of preventive interventions in clinical practice.

Rheumatoid arthritis prevention in arthralgia: fantasy or reality?

The concept of a 'window of opportunity' in treating a disease assumes the existence of a time frame during which the trajectory of the disease can be effectively and permanently modified. In rheumatoid arthritis (RA), optimal timing of this period is presumed to be during the phase before arthritis is clinically apparent and disease is diagnosed. Several proof-of-concept trials of treatment during the 'arthralgia' phase of RA have been completed in the past 4 years, with the underlying notion that temporary treatment at this stage could prevent the development of RA or induce a sustained reduction in the burden of disease. This Review summarizes the results of these trials and reflects on the outcomes in relation to the patients' perspectives. Overall, the majority of symptomatic at-risk individuals could benefit from a fixed period treatment, even if RA does not develop. Various factors must be taken into consideration when translating these findings into clinical practice. More evidence is needed to target the individuals at highest risk, and additional tools are needed to monitor treatment and guide decisions about whether treatment can be discontinued. Without these tools, there is a paradoxical risk of seemingly increasing the incidence of the disease and prolonging disease duration, which is the opposite of what the concept of intervening in the window of opportunity entails.

Serum sirtuin-1 a potential marker in the diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis

Introduction: To explore the value of serum sirtuin-1 (SIRT1) in the diagnosis and evaluation of joint mobility of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Materials and Methods: Serum was randomly obtained from 212 RA patients,210 non-RA patients and 58 healthy controls in a large tertiary first-class hospital in Jiangxi province from November 2021 to June 2022. The level of serum Sirt1,anti-cyclic citrulline polypeptide antibody (anti-CCP), anti-mutant citrulline vimentin antibody (anti-MCV), rheumatoid factor (RF),high-mobility group box 1 (HMGB1), collagen triple helix repeat containing 1 (CTHRC1), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were detected by ELISA, to explore the correlation between them and their value in the diagnosis and evaluation of joint range of motion of RA and statistically analyse their diagnostic efficiency. Results: ① The level of all markers was higher in the RA group than in the non-RA group and the healthy controls (p < 0.05). ② The AUC of the SIRT1 was 0.882, second only to the anti-MCV and anti-CCP. ③ The anti-CCP showed the highest sensitivity to RA diagnosis of 0.948. The specificity and positive predictive value of SIRT1 for the diagnosis of RA were the highest, which are 0.959 and 0.934 respectively. ④ In serial combination, SIRT1/anti-CCP、SIRT1/anti-MCV showed the highest specificity.SIRT1/anti-CCP in parallel combination had the highest sensitivity. ⑤ SIRT1 showed a significant correlation with other markers and DAS28 scores (p < 0.01). Conclusion: SIRT1 can be used as a new serological marker for RA diagnosis, which has a significant correlation with RA joint mobility and has a certain reference value in RA differential diagnosis, providing a new detection basis for RA differential diagnosis.

Rheumatoid arthritis

Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic, systemic, autoimmune inflammatory disease that mainly affects the joints and periarticular soft tissues. In this Seminar, we provide an overview of the main aspects of rheumatoid arthritis. Epidemiology and advances in the understanding of rheumatoid arthritis pathogenesis will be reviewed. We will discuss the clinical manifestations of rheumatoid arthritis, classification criteria, and the value of imaging in the diagnosis of the disease. The advent of new medications and the accumulated scientific evidence demand continuous updating regarding the diagnosis and management, including therapy, of rheumatoid arthritis. An increasing number of patients are now able to reach disease remission. This major improvement in the outcome of patients with rheumatoid arthritis has been determined by a combination of different factors (eg, early diagnosis, window of opportunity, treat-to-target strategy, advent of targeted disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs, and combination therapy). We will discuss the updated recommendations of the two most influential societies for rheumatology worldwide (ie, the American College of Rheumatology and European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology) for the management of rheumatoid arthritis. Furthermore, controversies (ie, the role of glucocorticoids in the management of rheumatoid arthritis and safety profile of Janus kinase inhibitors) and outstanding research questions, including precision medicine approach, prevention, and cure of rheumatoid arthritis will be highlighted.

To treat or not to treat? Current attitudes on treatment aimed at modifying the disease burden in clinically suspect arthralgia: a survey among participants of the TREAT EARLIER trial and healthcare professionals

OBJECTIVES

While awaiting therapies accomplishing rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-prevention in individuals at-risk, recent evidence supports that a 1-year methotrexate treatment may lead to sustained reduction in disease burden and subclinical joint inflammation in patients with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA). We aimed to study the previously unexplored attitudes of CSA patients and rheumatologists on 1-year DMARD treatment in the arthralgia phase to reduce the disease burden, while not preventing RA.

METHODS

CSA patients who participated in the TREAT EARLIER trial, thus being expert by experience, were informed on the trial results. Thereafter they completed an anonymous questionnaire about their attitudes on treatment in the CSA phase. We used the same approach for Dutch healthcare professionals in rheumatology.

RESULTS

The majority of trial participants (85%) considered the effects of the 1-year treatment as found in the TREAT EARLIER trial, beneficial in the symptomatic at-risk stage. 79% would recommend a 1-year methotrexate course to others with comparable joint complaints. Two-thirds indicated RA prevention and improving disease burden to be equally important treatment goals in the CSA phase. Most healthcare professionals (88%) were inclined to prescribe 1-year treatment to CSA patients aimed at long-term improvement of symptoms and functioning, while not preventing RA development. 59% believed the profits of a 1-year methotrexate course to outweigh disadvantages, for example, side effects.

CONCLUSIONS

A considerable willingness exists among CSA patients and rheumatologists to start a 1-year treatment resulting in long-term improvement of symptoms and functioning, while not preventing RA. This emphasises the need for more research optimising treatment regimens and disease monitoring in individuals at-risk to facilitate such treatment decisions in the future, while avoiding an intervention, either limited or for a prolonged period, which may have harms that outweigh benefits.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

The Netherlands Trials Registry (NTR4853-trial-NL4599). EudraCT number: NL2014-004472-35.

HOXA5 is a key regulator of class 3 semaphorins expression in the synovium of rheumatoid arthritis patients

OBJECTIVE

Class 3 semaphorins are reduced in the synovial tissue of RA patients and these proteins are involved in the pathogenesis of the disease. The aim of this study was to identify the transcription factors involved in the expression of class 3 semaphorins in the synovium of RA patients.

METHODS

Protein and mRNA expression in synovial tissue from RA and individuals at risk (IAR) patients, human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC) and RA fibroblast-like synoviocytes (FLS) was determined by ELISA, immunoblotting and quantitative PCR. TCF-3, EBF-1 and HOXA5 expression was knocked down using siRNA. Cell viability, migration and invasion were determined using MTT, calcein, wound closure and invasion assays, respectively.

RESULTS

mRNA expression of all class 3 semaphorins was significantly lower in the synovium of RA compared with IAR patients. In silico analysis suggested TCF-3, EBF-1 and HOXA5 as transcription factors involved in the expression of these semaphorins. TCF-3, EBF-1 and HOXA5 silencing significantly reduced the expression of several class 3 semaphorin members in FLS and HUVEC. Importantly, HOXA5 expression was significantly reduced in the synovium of RA compared with IAR patients and was negatively correlated with clinical disease parameters. Additionally, TNF-α down-regulated the HOXA5 expression in FLS and HUVEC. Finally, HOXA5 silencing enhanced the migratory and invasive capacities of FLS and the viability of HUVEC.

CONCLUSION

HOXA5 expression is reduced during the progression of RA and could be a novel therapeutic strategy for modulating the hyperplasia of the synovium, through the regulation of class 3 semaphorins expression.

A meta-analysis investigating the relationship between inflammation in autoimmune disease, elevated CRP, and the risk of dementia

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) represents the most common type of dementia and is becoming a steadily increasing challenge for health systems globally. Inflammation is developing as the main focus of research into Alzheimer's disease and has been demonstrated to be a major driver of the pathologies associated with AD. This evidence introduces an interesting research question, whether chronic inflammation due to pathologies such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) could lead to a higher risk of developing dementia. In both IBD and RA, increased levels of the inflammatory biomarker C-reactive protein (CRP) can be highlighted, the latter being directly implicated in neuroinflammation and AD. In this meta-analysis both the association between chronic inflammatory diseases and elevated levels of CRP during midlife were investigated to examine if they correlated with an augmented risk of dementia. Moreover, the association between increased CRP and modifications in the permeability of the Blood Brain Barrier (BBB) in the presence of CRP is explored. The results displayed that the odds ratio for IBD and dementia was 1.91 [1.15-3.15], for RA it was 1.90 [1.09-3.32] following sensitivity analysis and for CRP it was 1.62 [1.22-2.15]. These results demonstrate a higher risk of dementia in patients presenting chronic inflammation and that exists an independent association with high CRP in midlife. This paper builds on published research that suggest a critical role for CRP both in stroke and AD and provides an analysis on currently published research on multiple diseases (IBD and RA) in which CRP is raised as well as chronically elevated. CRP and the associated risk of dementia and further research indicated that the monomeric form of CRP can infiltrate the BBB/be released from damaged micro-vessels to access the brain. This meta-analysis provides first-time evidence that chronic elevation of CRP in autoimmune diseases is directly associated with an increased risk of later development of Alzheimer's disease. Therefore, greater priority should be provided to the effective control of inflammation in patients with chronic inflammatory or autoimmune conditions and further long-term assessment of circulating CRP might inform of an individual's relative risk of developing dementia.

Predictors of perceived risk in first-degree relatives of patients with rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVES

To define variables associated with perceived risk of developing rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in first-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with RA.

METHODS

Patients with RA and their FDRs were invited to complete cross-sectional surveys. FDR and index patient responses were linked. FDRs' perceived absolute risk, comparative risk, experiential risk and worry about risk were assessed using 5-point Likert scales. FDR predictor variables included demographics, illness perceptions and psychosocial variables. Patient predictors of FDR perceived risk were assessed. Binary logistic regression examined the relationship between FDR characteristics and perceived risk of RA. Generalised estimating equations assessed whether patient variables predicted FDR's perceived risk.

RESULTS

396 FDRs returned a survey. 395 FDRs provided sufficient data and were included in analysis. Paired data from 213 patients were available for 291 of these FDRs. All measures of perceived risk were inter-correlated. 65.2% of FDRs perceived themselves to be 'likely' or 'very likely' to develop RA in their lifetime. Relationship with index patient, high health anxiety, female gender, long perceived RA duration, high perceived concern about RA, negative perceived emotional impact of RA and low perceptions of how well treatment would control RA were all associated with increased FDRs' perceived risk. Patient characteristics did not associate with FDRs' risk perceptions.

CONCLUSIONS

FDRs' perceived risk of RA was high. Key predictors included being a child of a patient with RA, higher health anxiety and lower perceptions of RA treatment control. An understanding of these predictors will inform the development of tailored risk communication resources and preventive clinical strategies for RA.

Pre-RA: Can early diagnosis lead to prevention?

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is currently diagnosed and treated once an individual displays the clinical findings of inflammatory arthritis (IA). However, growing evidence supports that there is a 'pre-RA' stage that can be identified through factors such as autoantibodies in absence of clinically apparent IA. In particular, biomarkers, including antibodies to citrullinated protein antigens (ACPA), demonstrate a high risk for future IA/RA, and multiple clinical trials have been developed to intervene in individuals in pre-RA to prevent or delay clinically apparent disease. Herein, we will discuss in more depth what is currently known about the natural history of RA, and the emerging possibility that early 'diagnosis' of RA-related autoimmunity followed by an intervention can lead to the delay or prevention of the first onset of clinically apparent RA.

Systematic review of quantitative preference studies of treatments for rheumatoid arthritis among patients and at-risk populations

Treatments used for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are under investigation for their efficacy to prevent RA in at risk groups. It is therefore important to understand treatment preferences of those at risk. We systematically reviewed quantitative preference studies of drugs to treat, or prevent RA, to inform the design of further studies and trials of RA prevention. Stated preference studies for RA treatment or prevention were identified through a search of five databases. Study characteristics and results were extracted, and the relative importance of different types of treatment attributes was compared across populations. Twenty three studies were included 20 of RA treatments (18 of patients; 2 of the general public) and 3 prevention studies with first-degree relatives (FDRs). Benefits, risks, administration method and cost (when included) were important determinants of treatment choice. A benefit was more important than a risk attribute in half of the studies of RA treatment that included a benefit attribute and 2/3 studies of RA prevention. There was variability in the relative importance of attributes across the few prevention studies. In studies with non-patient participants, attributes describing confidence in treatment effectiveness/safety were more important determinants of choice than in studies with patients. Most preference studies relating to RA are of treatments for established RA. Few studies examine preferences for treatments to prevent RA. Given intense research focus on RA prevention, additional preference studies in this context are needed. Variation in treatment preferences across different populations is not well understood and direct comparisons are needed.

Perspectives of at-Risk Individuals on Preventive Intervention for Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Mini Review

There has been intense research focus on the biological mechanisms underlying the transition from health to disease for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) over recent years, and it is now well established that a state of autoimmunity precedes the development of symptoms for a large proportion of patients. This has led to an increased interest in the identification of at-risk groups and the potential for preventive intervention. The ability of several immunomodulatory agents to delay or prevent RA is under investigation and novel cellular therapies are in development. Preventive approaches are also being assessed in other chronic autoimmune diseases. For example, an anti-CD3 antibody has recently been shown to delay progression to type 1 diabetes in non-diabetic relatives of patients identified as being at high risk. The identification and treatment of individuals as being at risk of a disease where there is a degree of uncertainty around the potential for benefit is socially and ethically challenging. Recently reported difficulties in recruitment to RA prevention trials have underlined the importance of understanding the perspectives of at-risk individuals to identify barriers and facilitators that need to be addressed in order for preventive strategies to be acceptable. Understanding of their preferences for benefits and risks of preventive interventions can inform efficient intervention prioritization, prevention trial design and the development of informational resources for those at risk. In this review we summarize current knowledge of preferences for RA prevention and make recommendations for further research needed to ensure efficient development of preventive therapies and clinical implementation.