Modelling the expected impact of cigarette tax and price increases under Vietnam's excise tax law 2015-2020

Global smoking-related deaths averted due to MPOWER policies implemented at the highest level between 2007 and 2020

BACKGROUND

In response to the harm caused by tobacco use worldwide, the World Health Organization (WHO) World Health Assembly actioned the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in 2005. To help countries meet their FCTC obligations, the WHO introduced in 2008 the MPOWER policy package and by 2020 the FCTC had been ratified by 182 parties. The package consists of six evidence-based demand reduction smoking cessation policies to assist countries to achieve best practice. We used published evaluation results and replicated the published model to estimate current policy achievement and demonstrate the impact and equity of the MPOWER policy package in reducing the global number of smokers and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) between 2007 and 2020.

METHODS

We replicated an evaluation model (the Abridged SimSmoke model) used previously for country impact assessments and validated our replicated reduction in SADs for policies between 2014 and 2016 against the published results. The replicated model was then applied to report on the country level SADs averted from achieving the highest level of implementation, that is best practice in MPOWER policies, between 2016 and 2020. The latest results were then combined with past published results to estimate the reduction in SADs since the commencement of the MPOWER policy package. Country level income status was used to investigate the equity in the uptake of MPOWER policies worldwide.

RESULTS

Identical estimates for SADs in 41 out of 56 MPOWER policies implemented in 43 countries suggested good agreement in the model replication. The replicated model overestimated the reduction in SADs by 159,800 (1.5%) out of a total of 10.5 million SADs with three countries contributing to the majority of this replication discrepancy. Updated analysis estimated a reduction of 8.57 million smokers and 3.37 million SADs between 2016 and 2020. Between 2007 and 2020, 136 countries had adopted and maintained at least one MPOWER policy at the highest level which was associated with a reduction in 81.0 million smokers and 28.3 million SADs. Seventy five percent of this reduction was in middle income countries, 20% in high income and less than 5% in low income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Considerable progress has been made by MPOWER policies to reduce the prevalence of smokers globally. However, there is inequality in the implementation and maintenance, reach and influence, and the number of SADs averted. Future research to modify the model could provide a more comprehensive evaluation of past and future progress in tobacco control policies, worldwide.

Effects of cigarette price and packaging on hypothetical quit-smoking behaviour: a discrete choice experiment among Vietnamese adults who smoke

INTRODUCTION

Raising cigarette prices, increasing graphic health warning label (HWL) coverage and requiring plain packaging could reduce cigarette smoking in Vietnam. This discrete choice experiment estimates the potential impact of these policies on smoking behaviour.

METHODS

In February-May 2022, we conducted a phone-based, cross-sectional survey of 1494 Vietnamese adults who smoke. Participants were randomly assigned to view four individual cigarette pack images, varied on price (15 000 (reference group); 20 000; 30 000 or 40 000 Vietnamese dong (VND)) and packaging (branded pack with 50% graphic HWL (reference group); branded pack with 85% graphic HWL; plain pack with 50% graphic HWL or branded pack without HWL). Participants responded if they would quit or continue smoking if they could only purchase the pack shown. We used binomial logistic regressions to estimate the relative risk (RR) of price and packaging on hypothetical quitting.

RESULTS

Participants were more likely to report they would quit when presented with 30 000 VND (RR 1.20, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.35) and 40 000 VND packs (RR 1.40, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.58) vs the 15 000 VND pack. Participants were also more likely to report they would quit when shown the branded pack with 85% HWL (RR 1.30, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.42) and plain pack with 50% HWL (RR 1.34, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.49) vs the branded pack with 50% HWL coverage. Participants had significantly lower quit likelihood (RR 0.41, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.48) when shown the branded pack without a HWL.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest raising cigarette prices to at least 30 000 VND, implementing larger graphic HWLs or plain packaging could decrease smoking rates in Vietnam.

Assessing the Effects of a Tobacco Tax Reform on the Industry Price-Setting Strategy

In July 2020, the Executive Power submitted Bill no. 3887-2020 as the first step towards a wide reform of the Brazilian tax system. It will replace the current PIS/COFINS (charged on turnover of companies) by the CBS (a tax on goods and services), which includes a special regime for cigarettes. The novelty is that the specific cigarette tax will be charged on the highest retail price per cigarette brand across the country. This research simulates three scenarios that differ according to the price-setting strategy of the tobacco industry in reaction to the proposed tax reform. In all simulations, the tax reform would result in considerably higher cigarette prices, lower cigarette consumption, higher tax collection, and an implicit minimum price that is far above the current official price floor. Furthermore, the price dispersion and cross-border shopping across states would be reduced because prices and tax burden per brand would tend to be the same across the country due to the dominant price-setting strategy in the cigarette industry.