Prevalence of BSE in cattle found dead, euthanased or emergency slaughtered on farms in western France in 2000, 2001 and 2002

Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective

BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong decline in BSE risk was observed for all countries that applied control measures during the 1990s, starting at different points in time in the different countries. Results were compared with the type and date of the BSE control measures implemented between 1990 and 2001 in each country. Results show that a ban on the feeding of meat and bone meal (MBM) to cattle alone was not sufficient to eliminate BSE. The fading out of the epidemic started shortly after the complementary measures targeted at controlling the risk in MBM. Given the long incubation period, it is still too early to estimate the additional effect of the ban on the feeding of animal protein to all farm animals that started in 2001. These results provide new insights in the risk assessment of BSE for cattle and Humans, which will especially be useful in the context of possible relaxing BSE surveillance and control measures.

Time trends in exposure of cattle to bovine spongiform encephalopathy and cohort effect in France and Italy: value of the classical Age-Period-Cohort approach

Background

The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis is routinely used for time trend analysis of cancer incidence or mortality rates, but in veterinary epidemiology, there are still only a few examples of this application. APC models were recently used to model the French epidemic assuming that the time trend for BSE was mainly due to a cohort effect in relation to the control measures that may have modified the BSE exposure of cohorts over time. We used a categorical APC analysis which did not require any functional form for the effect of the variables, and examined second differences to estimate the variation of the BSE trend. We also reanalysed the French epidemic and performed a simultaneous analysis of Italian data using more appropriate birth cohort categories for comparison.

Results

We used data from the exhaustive surveillance carried out in France and Italy between 2001 and 2007, and comparatively described the trend of the epidemic in both countries. At the end, the shape and irregularities of the trends were discussed in light of the main control measures adopted to control the disease. In Italy a decrease in the epidemic became apparent from 1996, following the application of rendering standards for the processing of specific risk material (SRM). For the French epidemic, the pattern of second differences in the birth cohorts confirmed the beginning of the decrease from 1995, just after the implementation of the meat and bone meal (MBM) ban for all ruminants (1994).

Conclusion

The APC analysis proved to be highly suitable for the study of the trend in BSE epidemics and was helpful in understanding the effects of management and control of the disease. Additionally, such an approach may help in the implementation of changes in BSE regulations.

Modelling the trend of bovine spongiform encephalopathy prevalence in France: Use of restricted cubic spline regression in age-period-cohort models to estimate the efficiency of control measures

An age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was used to assess the trend in prevalence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in France over time in relation to the control measures adopted since onset of the epidemic. Restricted cubic regression splines were used to model the functional forms of the non-linear effects of age at screening, birth cohort and date of diagnosis of the tested animals. The data of the 2001-2007 period of surveillance was analysed using 1-year categorisation. A categorical analysis was performed as control to check the accuracy of the sets of knots in the spline models, which were selected according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Knot selection was based on a priori knowledge of the disease and the dates of implementation of the five main BSE control measures. It was assumed that disease prevalence was a function of exposure to BSE and that changes in the exposure of cattle to BSE were mainly due to the control measures. The effects of the five main control measures were discussed in relation to the trend in BSE risk for the successive birth cohorts. The six selected models confirmed that all measures participated in disease control. However, characterization of the respective effect of individual measures was not straightforward due to the very low disease prevalence, incompletely tested cohorts and probably cumulative and overlapping effects of successive measures. The ban of importation of meat and bone meal (MBM) from the UK and the ban of use of MBM in bovines were insufficient to control the epidemic. The decline in the BSE epidemic more likely originated from implementation of the ban of MBM use in all ruminants in 1994, whose effect was probably reinforced by the evolution in perception of the BSE risk following evidence of BSE transmission to humans. Finally, the respective effects of the last two measures (prohibition of the use of specific risk material in 1996 and total MBM ban in 2000) could not be characterized as they were implemented when the disease trend was already in strong decline.

Complementary approach of data analysis and modeling to estimate the pattern of the BSE epidemic: the example of France

Clinical surveillance was the only way to detect bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) until July 2000 in France. From the 103 cases identified as such between 1991 and June 2000, we used a back-calculation method to reconstruct the longitudinal trend of BSE infections. Between July 1987 and June 1997, an estimated 51,300 (CI =[24,300-84,700]) cattle were infected in France. The comprehensive surveillance of BSE with rapid tests, set up in France since 2001 at the abattoir and fallen plant, allowed study of the relative exposure of the successive birth cohorts with nonconditional logistic regression models adjusted for possible confounding variables. The results were in agreement with those of the back-calculation model, estimating a decrease of the BSE exposure from the birth cohort July 1995-June 1996 that matched with the decrease of the infection after June 1996. In view of the long incubation period of BSE, it is not possible to precisely assess the impact of any control measure before several years. Modeling was therefore used to estimate prospectively the efficiency of the ban of meat and bone meal extended to all farm species in November 2000. Using parameters about age at infection and incubation time estimated earlier, we assessed the minimum time to first detection if infections still occurred. We have waited up to June 2007 to know if less than 100 infections occurred among French cattle during the 6 months following January 2001.