Bluetongue, Schmallenberg virus… African horse sickness?

Comparative Risk Analysis of Two Culicoides-Borne Diseases in Horses: Equine Encephalosis More Likely to Enter France than African Horse Sickness

African horse sickness (AHS) and equine encephalosis (EE) are Culicoides-borne viral diseases that could have the potential to spread across Europe if introduced, thus being potential threats for the European equine industry. Both share similar epidemiology, transmission patterns and geographical distribution. Using stochastic spatiotemporal models of virus entry, we assessed and compared the probabilities of both viruses entering France via two pathways: importation of live-infected animals or importation of infected vectors. Analyses were performed for three consecutive years (2010-2012). Seasonal and regional differences in virus entry probabilities were the same for both diseases. However, the probability of EE entry was much higher than the probability of AHS entry. Interestingly, the most likely entry route differed between AHS and EE: AHS has a higher probability to enter through an infected vector and EE has a higher probability to enter through an infectious host. Consequently, different effective protective measures were identified by 'what-if' scenarios for the two diseases. The implementation of vector protection on all animals (equine and bovine) coming from low-risk regions before their importation was the most effective in reducing the probability of AHS entry. On the other hand, the most significant reduction in the probability of EE entry was obtained by the implementation of quarantine before import for horses coming from both EU and non-EU countries. The developed models can be useful to implement risk-based surveillance.

Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) and livestock in the Netherlands: comparing host preference and attack rates on a Shetland pony, a dairy cow, and a sheep

Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) host preferences and attack rates were quantified in early summer at a dairy farm in the Netherlands using livestock tethered at pasture. Midges were aspirated hourly over seven consecutive hours (17:00-23:00) from a dairy cow, a Shetland pony, and a sheep and correspondingly yielded seventeen, thirteen, and nine species. Of the 14,181 midges obtained, approximately 95% belonged to the C. obsoletus complex, C. dewulfi, C. chiopterus, and C. punctatus that together include all proven or potential vectors for arboviral diseases in livestock in northwestern Europe. On average, 7.6 and 3.5 times more Culicoides were collected, respectively, from the cow and the Shetland pony than from the sheep. In descending order of abundance, the C. obsoletus complex, C. dewulfi, and C. chiopterus dominated attacks on all three hosts, whereas C. punctatus and C. pulicaris favored only the two larger hosts. Irrespective of the host species involved, the three body regions attracted the same component species, C. chiopterus favoring the legs, C. punctatus and C. achrayi the belly, and the C. obsoletus complex, C. dewulfi, and C. pulicaris the head, back, and flanks. That known and potential vectors for animal diseases feed indiscriminately on a broad range of mammal hosts means that all major livestock species, including equines, are rendered susceptible to one or more Culicoides-borne pathogens.

A spatiotemporal model to assess the introduction risk of African horse sickness by import of animals and vectors in France

Background

African horse sickness (AHS) is a major, Culicoides-borne viral disease in equines whose introduction into Europe could have dramatic consequences. The disease is considered to be endemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Recent introductions of other Culicoides-borne viruses (bluetongue and Schmallenberg) into northern Europe have highlighted the risk that AHS may arrive in Europe as well. The aim of our study was to provide a spatiotemporal quantitative risk model of AHS introduction into France. The study focused on two pathways of introduction: the arrival of an infectious host (PW-host) and the arrival of an infectious Culicoides midge via the livestock trade (PW-vector). The risk of introduction was calculated by determining the probability of an infectious animal or vector entering the country and the probability of the virus then becoming established: i.e., the virus’s arrival in France resulting in at least one local equine host being infected by one local vector. This risk was assessed using data from three consecutive years (2010 to 2012) for 22 regions in France.

Results

The results of the model indicate that the annual risk of AHS being introduced to France is very low but that major spatiotemporal differences exist. For both introduction pathways, risk is higher from July to October and peaks in July. In general, regions with warmer climates are more at risk, as are colder regions with larger equine populations; however, regional variation in animal importation patterns (number and species) also play a major role in determining risk. Despite the low probability that AHSV is present in the EU, intra-EU trade of equines contributes most to the risk of AHSV introduction to France because it involves a large number of horse movements.

Conclusion

It is important to address spatiotemporal differences when assessing the risk of ASH introduction and thus also when implementing efficient surveillance efforts. The methods and results of this study may help develop surveillance techniques and other risk reduction measures that will prevent the introduction of AHS or minimize AHS’ potential impact once introduced, both in France and the rest of Europe.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12917-015-0435-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.