Evidence for a survival-driven traveling wave in a keystone boreal predator population

Cyclical population dynamics are a common phenomenon in populations worldwide, yet the spatial organization of these cycles remains poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the spatial form and timing of a population collapse from 2018 to 2022 in Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) across the northwest boreal forest. We analyzed survival, reproduction, and dispersal data from 143 individual global positioning system (GPS) collared lynx from populations across five study sites spanning interior Alaska to determine whether lynx displayed characteristics of a population wave following a concurrent wave in snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) abundance. Reproductive rates declined across the study sites; however, site-level reproduction declined first in our easternmost study sites, supporting the idea of a population wave. Despite a clear increase in percent of dispersing lynx, there was no evidence of directional bias in dispersal following a hare population wave. Analysis did show increasingly poor survival for lynx dispersing to the east compared to combined resident and westward dispersal. This pattern is consistent with a survival-mediated population wave in lynx as the driver of the theorized population wave. The combination of these factors supports the idea of a hierarchical response to snowshoe hare population declines with a drop in lynx reproduction followed by increased dispersal, and finally reduced survival. All of this evidence is consistent with the expected characteristics of a population undergoing a traveling wave and supports the hypothesis that lynx presence may facilitate and mirror the underlying wave patterns in snowshoe hare.

Contrasting seasonal effects of climate change influence density in a cold-adapted species

Many ecological processes are profoundly influenced by abiotic factors, such as temperature and snow. However, despite strong evidence linking shifts in these ecological processes to corresponding shifts in abiotic factors driven by climate change, the mechanisms connecting population size to season-specific climate drivers are little understood. Using a 21-year dataset and a Bayesian state space model, we identified biologically informed seasonal climate covariates that influenced densities of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), a cold-adapted boreal herbivore. We found that snow and temperature had strong but conflicting season-dependent effects. Reduced snow duration in spring and fall and warmer summers were associated with lowered hare density, whereas warmer winters were associated with increased density. When modeled simultaneously and under two climate change scenarios, the negative effects of reduced fall and spring snow duration and warmer summers overwhelm the positive effect of warmer winters, producing projected population declines. Ultimately, the contrasting population-level impacts of climate change across seasons emphasize the critical need to examine the entire annual climate cycle to understand potential long-term population consequences of climate change.

The Role of Weather and Long-Term Prey Dynamics as Drivers of Wolf Population Dynamics in a Multi-Prey System

As climate change accelerates in northern latitudes, there is an increasing need to understand the role of climate in influencing predator-prey systems. We investigated wolf population dynamics and numerical response in Denali National Park and Preserve in Alaska, United States from 1986 to 2016 under a long-term range of varying climatic conditions and in the context of prey vulnerability, abundance, and population structure using an integrated population modeling approach. We found that wolf natality, or the number of wolves added to packs, increased with higher caribou population size, calf:cow ratio, and hare numbers, responding to a 1-year lag. Apparent survival increased in years with higher calf:cow ratios and cumulative snowfall in the prior winter, indicators of a vulnerable prey base. Thus, indices of prey abundance and vulnerability led to responses in wolf demographics, but we did not find that the wolf population responded numerically. During recent caribou and moose population increases wolf natality increased yet wolf population size declined. The decline in wolf population size is attributed to fewer packs in recent years with a few very large packs as opposed to several packs of comparable size. Our results suggest that territoriality can play a vital role in our study area on regulating population growth. These results provide a baseline comparison of wolf responses to climatic and prey variability in an area with relatively low levels of human disturbance, a rare feature in wolf habitat worldwide.

Factors driving California pocket mice (Chaetodipus californicus) population dynamics

Understanding how demographic parameters respond to climatic variables is essential for predicting species’ response to changing environmental conditions. The California pocket mouse (Chaetodipus californicus) is an inhabitant of coastal-central California oak (Quercus spp.) woodland that is undergoing a rapid anthropogenic transformation while also facing effects of global climate change. We analyzed the population dynamics of the California pocket mouse by applying Pradel’s temporal symmetry model to a 10-year (2004 – 2013) capture–mark–recapture data set to estimate survival and recruitment rates and realized population growth rate. The overall monthly apparent survival probability (ϕ) was 0.76 ± 0.01 SE and was slightly higher in the dry season (0.79 ± 0.02 SE) than the wet season (0.74 ± 0.01 SE). Coefficients of variation (CV) of temperature and rainfall (with and without a one-season lag), average seasonal temperature, and regional climatic variation (El Niño index) positively influenced ϕ. Overall monthly recruitment rate (f) was 0.17 ± 0.01 SE but varied seasonally; f was substantially higher during the dry season (0.39 ± 0.04 SE) than the wet season (0.09 ± 0.02 SE). Average seasonal temperature, CV of temperature and rainfall (without a one-season lag), and total seasonal rainfall (with a one-season lag) positively influenced recruitment, whereas regional climatic variation (El Niño index), total seasonal rainfall (without a one-season lag), and CV of rainfall (with a one-season lag) had a negative effect on f. Monthly realized population growth rate (λ) was 1.00 ± 0.02 SE for the entire study period, but it varied temporally. Our study provides the first estimates of demographic parameters for the California pocket mouse and tests for the influence of climatic variables on these parameters. Although the California pocket mouse population remained relatively stable during our study (as indicated by λ = 1.00), changing climate and anthropogenic influences on California oak woodland could adversely influence demographic parameters and population dynamics and might also indicate effects of climate change on its ecologically sensitive habitat.

Functional responses of white spruce to snowshoe hare herbivory at the treeline

Herbivores can modify the rate of shrub and treeline advance. Both direct and indirect effects of herbivory may simultaneously interact to affect the growth rates of plants at this ecotone. We investigated the effect of snowshoe hare herbivory on the height of white spruce at two treeline locations in Alaska, USA. White spruce is expanding its distribution both upwards in elevation and northward in latitude because of climate warming, and snowshoe hares are already present in areas likely to be colonized by spruce. We hypothesized that herbivory would result in browsed individuals having reduced height, suggesting herbivory is a direct, negative effect on spruce treeline advance. We found an interactive effect between browsing history and spruce age. When young (under 30 years old), individuals that were browsed tended to be taller than unbrowsed individuals. However, older seedlings (over 30 years old) that had been browsed were shorter than unbrowsed individuals of the same age. Hares suppress faster growing individuals that are initially taller by preferentially browsing them as they emerge above the winter snowpack. This reduced height, in combination with increased mortality associated with browsing, is predicted to slow the advance of both latitudinal and altitudinal treeline expansions and alter the structure of treeline forests.

Bottom-up processes drive reproductive success in an apex predator

One of the central goals of the field of population ecology is to identify the drivers of population dynamics, particularly in the context of predator-prey relationships. Understanding the relative role of top-down versus bottom-up drivers is of particular interest in understanding ecosystem dynamics. Our goal was to explore predator-prey relationships in a boreal ecosystem in interior Alaska through the use of multispecies long-term monitoring data. We used 29 years of field data and a dynamic multistate site occupancy modeling approach to explore the trophic relationships between an apex predator, the golden eagle, and cyclic populations of the two primary prey species available to eagles early in the breeding season, snowshoe hare and willow ptarmigan. We found that golden eagle reproductive success was reliant on prey numbers, but also responded prior to changes in the phase of the snowshoe hare population cycle and failed to respond to variation in hare cycle amplitude. There was no lagged response to ptarmigan populations, and ptarmigan populations recovered quickly from the low phase. Together, these results suggested that eagle reproduction is largely driven by bottom-up processes, with little evidence of top-down control of either ptarmigan or hare populations. Although the relationship between golden eagle reproductive success and prey abundance had been previously established, here we established prey populations are likely driving eagle dynamics through bottom-up processes. The key to this insight was our focus on golden eagle reproductive parameters rather than overall abundance. Although our inference is limited to the golden eagle-hare-ptarmigan relationships we studied, our results suggest caution in interpreting predator-prey abundance patterns among other species as strong evidence for top-down control.

Weather-driven change in primary productivity explains variation in the amplitude of two herbivore population cycles in a boreal system

Vertebrate populations throughout the circumpolar north often exhibit cyclic dynamics, and predation is generally considered to be a primary driver of these cycles in a variety of herbivore species. However, weather and climate play a role in entraining cycles over broad landscapes and may alter cyclic dynamics, although the mechanism by which these processes operate is uncertain. Experimental and observational work has suggested that weather influences primary productivity over multi-year time periods, suggesting a pathway through which weather and climate may influence cyclic herbivore dynamics. Using long-term monitoring data, we investigated the relationships among multi-year weather conditions, measures of primary productivity, and the abundance of two cyclic herbivore species: snowshoe hare and northern red-backed vole. We found that precipitation (rain and snow) and growing season temperatures were strongly associated with variation in primary productivity over multi-year time horizons. In turn, fourfold variation in the amplitude of both the hare and vole cycles observed in our study area corresponded to long-term changes in primary productivity. The congruence of our results for these two species suggests a general mechanism by which weather and climate might influence cyclic herbivore population dynamics. Our findings also suggested that the association between climate warming and the disappearance of cycles might be initiated by changes in primary productivity. This work provides an explanation for observed influences of weather and climate on primary productivity and population cycles and will help our collective understanding of how future climate warming may influence these ecological phenomena in the future.

Fatal Attraction? Intraguild Facilitation and Suppression among Predators

Competition and suppression are recognized as dominant forces that structure predator communities. Facilitation via carrion provisioning, however, is a ubiquitous interaction among predators that could offset the strength of suppression. Understanding the relative importance of these positive and negative interactions is necessary to anticipate community-wide responses to apex predator declines and recoveries worldwide. Using state-sponsored wolf (Canis lupus) control in Alaska as a quasi experiment, we conducted snow track surveys of apex, meso-, and small predators to test for evidence of carnivore cascades (e.g., mesopredator release). We analyzed survey data using an integrative occupancy and structural equation modeling framework to quantify the strengths of hypothesized interaction pathways, and we evaluated fine-scale spatiotemporal responses of nonapex predators to wolf activity clusters identified from radio-collar data. Contrary to the carnivore cascade hypothesis, both meso- and small predator occupancy patterns indicated guild-wide, negative responses of nonapex predators to wolf abundance variations at the landscape scale. At the local scale, however, we observed a near guild-wide, positive response of nonapex predators to localized wolf activity. Local-scale association with apex predators due to scavenging could lead to landscape patterns of mesopredator suppression, suggesting a key link between occupancy patterns and the structure of predator communities at different spatial scales.

Can snowshoe hares control treeline expansions?

Treelines in Alaska are advancing in elevation and latitude because of climate warming, which is expanding the habitat available for boreal wildlife species, including snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus). Snowshoe hares are already present in tall shrub communities beyond treeline and are the main browser of white spruce (Picea glauca), the dominant tree species at treeline in Alaska. We investigated the processes involved in a "snowshoe hare filter" to white spruce establishment near treeline in Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. We modeled the pattern of spruce establishment from 1970 to 2009 and found that fewer spruce established during periods of high hare abundance. Multiple factors interact to influence browsing of spruce, including the hare cycle, snow depth and the characteristics of surrounding vegetation. Hares are abundant at treeline and may exclude spruce from otherwise optimal establishment sites, particularly floodplain locations with closed shrub canopies. The expansion of white spruce treeline in response to warming climate will be strongly modified by the spatial and temporal dynamics of the snowshoe hare filter.

Variable effects of snow conditions across boreal mesocarnivore species

Mesocarnivores are increasingly recognized as key drivers of community dynamics, but the effects of bottom-up and abiotic factors on mesocarnivore populations remain poorly understood. We evaluated the effects of snow conditions, prey abundance, and habitat type on the distribution of five sympatric mesocarnivore species in interior Alaska using repeated snow-track surveys and occupancy modelling. Snow depth and snow compaction were the best predictors of mesocarnivore occupancy, with differential effects across species. Coyotes (Canis latrans Say, 1823) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes (L., 1758)) occurred in areas of shallow, compact snow; Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis Kerr, 1792) occurred in areas of shallow, fluffy snow; and wolverines (Gulo gulo (L., 1758)) and marten (Martes americana (Turton, 1806)) occurred in areas of deep, fluffy snow. These findings indicate that altered snow conditions due to climate change may have strong direct effects on the distribution of northern mesocarnivores, with divergent effects across species.

Demographic differences in diet breadth of Canada lynx during a fluctuation in prey availability

Population dynamics of specialist carnivores are closely linked to prey availability, but the extent of variability in diet breadth of individual carnivores relative to natural variability in the abundance of their primary prey is not well understood. Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) specialize on snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) and exhibit cyclic fluctuations in abundance that lag 1–2 years behind those of snowshoe hares. Declining hare densities spur demographic changes in lynx, but it is unclear whether a corresponding increase in diet breadth occurs: (1) broadly across a lynx population; (2) only among individuals who are able to effectively switch to alternative prey; or (3) only among individuals who cannot capture sufficient primary prey. We measured stable isotope ratios of lynx muscle tissue spanning a cyclic increase and decline in hare density (1998–2001) in Fort Providence, NT, Canada. We found that lynx cohorts responded differently to hare population change, with yearling animals having broader diets at low hare densities, while adults and dependent juveniles maintained a constant diet through the initial decline in hare density. This result was consistent irrespective of lynx sex and indicates that yearling lynx likely are forced to adopt a broader diet when primary prey densities decline. Our results imply that select cohorts of specialist carnivores can exhibit high dietary plasticity in response to changes in primary prey abundance, prompting the need to determine whether increased diet breadth in young lynx is a successful strategy for surviving through periods of snowshoe hare scarcity. In this way, cohort‐specific niche expansion could strongly affect the dynamics of organisms exhibiting population cycles.

What factors determine cyclic amplitude in the snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) cycle?

Snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus Erxleben, 1777) fluctuate in 9–10 year cycles throughout much of their North American range. These cycles show large variations in cyclic amplitude and we ask what factors could cause amplitude variation. We gathered data from 1976 to 2012 on hare numbers in the boreal forest of Alaska, Yukon, Northwest Territories, and northern British Columbia to describe the amplitude of hare fluctuations and to evaluate four possible causes. First, weather could cause variation in amplitude via hare reproduction or survival, but this mechanism does not fit our data. Second, bottom-up processes involving forest succession could explain amplitude variation through changes in winter forage availability, but succession is too slow a variable in our study areas. Third, plant defenses entrained by hare over-browsing in one cycle can produce variation in plant quality and quantity in subsequent cycles. A mathematical model suggests this is a possible explanation. Fourth, predator recovery following the cyclic low is inversely related to hare cyclic amplitude, and the existing data are consistent with this mechanism. A standardized regional monitoring program is needed to improve our understanding of cyclic amplitude variation in hares and the possible role of predators and winter foods in affecting amplitude.

Enzyme immunoassays as a method for quantifying hair reproductive hormones in two felid species

Non-invasive monitoring of wild felid reproductive states is important, given that many species reproduce poorly in captivity. Despite extensive work in faecal hormone analysis in felids, continued development of techniques is necessary, particularly with wild populations. In this study, our aims were as follows: (i) biochemical validation of enzyme immunoassays for estrogen, testosterone and progesterone in Canada lynx and domestic cat hair extracts; (ii) assessment of the use of hair reproductive hormones to differentiate between reproductive states (intact, estrus, pregnant and spayed/neutered), using domestic cats as a model; and (iii) assessment of the use of hair reproductive hormones to differentiate between age and sex, accounting for potential regional variability in wild lynx populations. Analysis of hair hormone levels showed prospective value in detecting pregnancy states, with pregnant domestic cats having higher levels of progesterone than spayed females. However, intact and pregnant cats did not differ in progesterone levels. Yet, two female domestic cats had higher levels of hair progesterone following a 38-day oral progestin treatment, perhaps providing a preliminary pharmacological validation of the method. Estrogen and testosterone did not differ statistically according to reproductive states of domestic cats, although intact males had higher levels of hair testosterone than neutered males. When we applied these techniques to lynx fur, we determined that hormone levels were not sufficiently precise to differentiate age classes. Hair reproductive hormone ratios differed between sexes, with the estrogen-to-progesterone ratio demonstrating the highest accuracy in differentiating males from females. Hair hormone levels differed regionally for wild lynx, indicating that spatial variability should be a consideration in wildlife hormone studies spanning large spatial scales. We conclude that use of hair hormone analysis by enzyme immunoassay may hold promise for differentiating sex in felids, but the technique will require further refinement and validation before it can be applied broadly and reliably.