Simulating the efficacy of wolf-dog hybridization management with individual-based modeling

Introgressive hybridization between wolves and dogs is a conservation concern due to its potentially deleterious long-term evolutionary consequences. European legislation requires that wolf-dog hybridization be mitigated through effective management. We developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the life cycle of gray wolves that incorporates aspects of wolf sociality that affect hybridization rates (e.g., the dissolution of packs after the death of one/both breeders) with the goal of informing decision-making on management of wolf-dog hybridization. We applied our model by projecting hybridization dynamics in a local wolf population under different mate choice and immigration scenarios and contrasted results of removal of admixed individuals with their sterilization and release. In several scenarios, lack of management led to complete admixture, whereas reactive management interventions effectively reduced admixture in wolf populations. Management effectiveness, however, strongly depended on mate choice and number and admixture level of individuals immigrating into the wolf population. The inclusion of anthropogenic mortality affecting parental and admixed individuals (e.g., poaching) increased the probability of pack dissolution and thus increased the probability of interbreeding with dogs or admixed individuals and boosted hybridization and introgression rates in all simulation scenarios. Recognizing the necessity of additional model refinements (appropriate parameterization, thorough sensitivity analyses, and robust model validation) to generate management recommendations applicable in real-world scenarios, we maintain confidence in our model's potential as a valuable conservation tool that can be applied to diverse situations and species facing similar threats.

Variance in offspring sex ratio and maternal allocation in a highly invasive mammal

Skewed sex ratios at birth are widely reported in wild populations, however, the extent to which parents are able to modulate the sex ratio of offspring to maximize their own fitness remains unclear. This is particularly true for highly polytocous species as maximizing fitness may include trade-offs between sex ratio and the size and number of offspring in litters. In such cases, it may be adaptive for mothers to adjust both the number of offspring per litter and offspring sex to maximize individual fitness. Investigating maternal sex allocation in wild pigs (Sus scrofa) under stochastic environmental conditions, we predicted that under favorable conditions, high-quality mothers (larger and older) would produce male-biased litters and invest more in producing larger litters with more males. We also predicted sex ratio would vary relative to litter size, with a male-bias among smaller litters. We found evidence that increasing wild boar ancestry, maternal age and condition, and resource availability may weakly contribute to male-biased sex ratio, however, unknown factors not measured in this study are assumed to be more influential. High-quality mothers allocated more resources to litter production, but this relationship was driven by adjustment of litter size, not sex ratio. There was no relationship between sex ratio and litter size. Collectively, our results emphasized that adjustment of litter size appeared to be the primary reproductive characteristic manipulated in wild pigs to increase fitness rather than adjustment of offspring sex ratio.

Wolf Is Back: A Novel Sensitive Sentinel Rejoins the Trichinella Cycle in the Western Alps

Trichinella is a foodborne parasite whose wildlife reservoirs are represented by carnivores and omnivores with predatory and scavenger behavior. The aim of the present study was to investigate the occurrence of Trichinella infection in grey wolves (Canis lupus) that recolonized the Western Alps from the end of the past century, and discuss the epidemiological role played by this apex predator in the early phases of its return. During the period 2017–2022, diaphragm samples were obtained from 130 individuals collected in the frame of a wolf mortality survey. Trichinella larvae were found in 15 wolves (11.53%) with a parasite intensity of 11.74 larvae per gram. Trichinella britovi was the only species identified. This is the first prevalence survey of Trichinella in wolves recolonizing the Alps. Results suggest that, in this particular biotope, the wolf has rejoined the Trichinella cycle and has the potential to play an increasingly important role as maintenance host. Arguments in favor and against this perspective are discussed and knowledge gaps highlighted. The calculated Trichinella larval biomass in the estimated wolf population roaming in Northwest Italy will serve as baseline value to explore possible shifts in the relative importance of wolves as Trichinella reservoir within the regional carnivore community. Finally, wolves re-colonizing the Alps already appear as sensitive sentinels to monitor the risk of Trichinella zoonotic transmission by infected wild boar meat.

Closer to Carrying Capacity: Analysis of the Internal Demographic Structure Associated with the Management and Density Dependence of a Controlled Wolf Population in Latvia

Large carnivores are essential components of natural ecosystems. In populated areas, their conservation depends on preserving a favorable status in coexistence with humans, which may require the elimination of excess carnivores to minimize public concerns. As the Baltic region currently hosts a thriving wolf population, locally sustainable management of wolves is important for preserving biodiversity at a European scale. In this paper, we provide a dynamic assessment of the Latvian wolf subpopulation from 1998 until 2020. This study is based on age composition and fecundity data from teeth, uteri, and ovaria inspections obtained from samples of legally culled or accidentally killed individuals. The abundance estimates indicated population growth that exceeded the previously predicted carrying capacity. The proportion of juveniles among the culled individuals increased in recent years, but the mean age of culled adults exhibited a stable trend. In presumably nonselective hunting, the juveniles and individuals older than 3 years had greater culling mortality estimates in comparison with other age classes, and the culling rates for adult females of particular age classes were higher than for males of the same age. While creating significant hunting pressure, wolf management in Latvia may have contributed to the population growth by affecting its demographic processes.

Population expansion and individual age affect endoparasite richness and diversity in a recolonising large carnivore population

The recent recolonisation of the Central European lowland (CEL) by the grey wolf (Canis lupus) provides an excellent opportunity to study the effect of founder events on endoparasite diversity. Which role do prey and predator populations play in the re-establishment of endoparasite life cycles? Which intrinsic and extrinsic factors control individual endoparasite diversity in an expanding host population? In 53 individually known CEL wolves sampled in Germany, we revealed a community of four cestode, eight nematode, one trematode and 12 potential Sarcocystis species through molecular genetic techniques. Infections with zoonotic Echinococcus multilocularis, Trichinella britovi and T. spiralis occurred as single cases. Per capita endoparasite species richness and diversity significantly increased with population size and changed with age, whereas sex, microsatellite heterozygosity, and geographic origin had no effect. Tapeworm abundance (Taenia spp.) was significantly higher in immigrants than natives. Metacestode prevalence was slightly higher in ungulates from wolf territories than from control areas elsewhere. Even though alternative canid definitive hosts might also play a role within the investigated parasite life cycles, our findings indicate that (1) immigrated wolves increase parasite diversity in German packs, and (2) prevalence of wolf-associated parasites had declined during wolf absence and has now risen during recolonisation.

Wolves Recolonizing Islands: Genetic Consequences and Implications for Conservation and Management

After a long and deliberate persecution, the grey wolf (Canis lupus) is slowly recolonizing its former areas in Europe, and the genetic consequences of this process are of particular interest. Wolves, though present in mainland Estonia for a long time, have only recently started to recolonize the country’s two largest islands, Saaremaa and Hiiumaa. The main objective of this study was to analyse wolf population structure and processes in Estonia, with particular attention to the recolonization of islands. Fifteen microsatellite loci were genotyped for 185 individuals across Estonia. As a methodological novelty, all putative wolf-dog hybrids were identified and removed (n = 17) from the dataset beforehand to avoid interference of dog alleles in wolf population analysis. After the preliminary filtering, our final dataset comprised of 168 “pure” wolves. We recommend using hybrid-removal step as a standard precautionary procedure not only for wolf population studies, but also for other taxa prone to hybridization. STRUCTURE indicated four genetic groups in Estonia. Spatially explicit DResD analysis identified two areas, one of them on Saaremaa island and the other in southwestern Estonia, where neighbouring individuals were genetically more similar than expected from an isolation-by-distance null model. Three blending areas and two contrasting transition zones were identified in central Estonia, where the sampled individuals exhibited strong local differentiation over relatively short distance. Wolves on the largest Estonian islands are part of human-wildlife conflict due to livestock depredation. Negative public attitude, especially on Saaremaa where sheep herding is widespread, poses a significant threat for island wolves. To maintain the long-term viability of the wolf population on Estonian islands, not only wolf hunting quota should be targeted with extreme care, but effective measures should be applied to avoid inbreeding and minimize conflicts with local communities and stakeholders.

North-South differentiation and a region of high diversity in European wolves (Canis lupus)

European wolves (Canis lupus) show population genetic structure in the absence of geographic barriers, and across relatively short distances for this highly mobile species. Additional information on the location of and divergence between population clusters is required, particularly because wolves are currently recolonizing parts of Europe. We evaluated genetic structure in 177 wolves from 11 countries using over 67K single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci. The results supported previous findings of an isolated Italian population with lower genetic diversity than that observed across other areas of Europe. Wolves from the remaining countries were primarily structured in a north-south axis, with Croatia, Bulgaria, and Greece (Dinaric-Balkan) differentiated from northcentral wolves that included individuals from Finland, Latvia, Belarus, Poland and Russia. Carpathian Mountain wolves in central Europe had genotypes intermediate between those identified in northcentral Europe and the Dinaric-Balkan cluster. Overall, individual genotypes from northcentral Europe suggested high levels of admixture. We observed high diversity within Belarus, with wolves from western and northern Belarus representing the two most differentiated groups within northcentral Europe. Our results support the presence of at least three major clusters (Italy, Carpathians, Dinaric-Balkan) in southern and central Europe. Individuals from Croatia also appeared differentiated from wolves in Greece and Bulgaria. Expansion from glacial refugia, adaptation to local environments, and human-related factors such as landscape fragmentation and frequent killing of wolves in some areas may have contributed to the observed patterns. Our findings can help inform conservation management of these apex predators and the ecosystems of which they are part.

Determinants of lifetime reproduction in female brown bears: early body mass, longevity, and hunting regulations

In iteroparous mammals, conditions experienced early in life may have long-lasting effects on lifetime reproductive success. Human-induced mortality is also an important demographic factor in many populations of large mammals and may influence lifetime reproductive success. Here, we explore the effects of early development, population density, and human hunting on survival and lifetime reproductive success in brown bear (Ursus arctos) females, using a 25-year database of individually marked bears in two populations in Sweden. Survival of yearlings to 2 years was not affected by population density or body mass. Yearlings that remained with their mother had higher survival than independent yearlings, partly because regulations prohibit the harvest of bears in family groups. Although mass as a yearling did not affect juvenile survival, it was positively associated with measures of lifetime reproductive success and individual fitness. The majority of adult female brown bear mortality (72%) in our study was due to human causes, mainly hunting, and many females were killed before they reproduced. Therefore, factors allowing females to survive several hunting seasons had a strong positive effect on lifetime reproductive success. We suggest that, in many hunted populations of large mammals, sport harvest is an important influence on both population dynamics and life histories.

Predatory senescence in ageing wolves

It is well established that ageing handicaps the ability of prey to escape predators, yet surprisingly little is known about how ageing affects the ability of predators to catch prey. Research into long-lived predators has assumed that adults have uniform impacts on prey regardless of age. Here we use longitudinal data from repeated observations of individually-known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park to demonstrate that adult predatory performance declines with age and that an increasing ratio of senescent individuals in the wolf population depresses the rate of prey offtake. Because this ratio fluctuates independently of population size, predatory senescence may cause wolf populations of equal size but different age structure to have different impacts on prey populations. These findings suggest that predatory senescence is an important, though overlooked, factor affecting predator-prey dynamics.