Muskrats as a bellwether of a drying delta

Wetlands worldwide are under threat from anthropogenic impacts. In large protected North American areas such as Yellowstone and Wood Buffalo National Parks, aquatic habitats are disappearing and wetland-dependent fauna are in decline^1-3. Here we investigate population dynamics of an indicator species in Canada's Peace-Athabasca Delta ("the delta"), a World Heritage Site. Based on population surveys, habitat mapping and genetic data from 288 muskrats, we use agent-based modeling and genetic analyses to explain population expansion and decline of the semi-aquatic muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus). Simulations quantify a large population (~500,000 individuals) following flood-induced habitat gains, with decreased size (~10,000 individuals) during drying. Genetic analyses show extremely low long-term effective population size (N_e: 60-127), supporting a legacy of population bottlenecks. Our simulations indicate that the muskrat population in the delta is a metapopulation with individuals migrating preferentially along riparian pathways. Related individuals found over 40 km apart imply dispersal distances far greater than their typical home range (130 m). Rapid metapopulation recovery is achieved via riparian corridor migration and passive flood-transport of individuals. Source-sink dynamics show wetland loss impacts on the muskrat metapopulation's spatial extent. Dramatic landscape change is underway, devastating local fauna, including this generalist species even in a protected ecosystem.

Review on environmental alterations propagating from aquatic to terrestrial ecosystems

Terrestrial inputs into freshwater ecosystems are a classical field of environmental science. Resource fluxes (subsidy) from aquatic to terrestrial systems have been less studied, although they are of high ecological relevance particularly for the receiving ecosystem. These fluxes may, however, be impacted by anthropogenically driven alterations modifying structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems. In this context, we reviewed the peer-reviewed literature for studies addressing the subsidy of terrestrial by aquatic ecosystems with special emphasis on the role that anthropogenic alterations play in this water-land coupling. Our analysis revealed a continuously increasing interest in the coupling of aquatic to terrestrial ecosystems between 1990 and 2014 (total: 661 studies), while the research domains focusing on abiotic (502 studies) and biotic (159 studies) processes are strongly separated. Approximately 35% (abiotic) and 25% (biotic) of the studies focused on the propagation of anthropogenic alterations from the aquatic to the terrestrial system. Among these studies, hydromorphological and hydrological alterations were predominantly assessed, whereas water pollution and invasive species were less frequently investigated. Less than 5% of these studies considered indirect effects in the terrestrial system e.g. via food web responses, as a result of anthropogenic alterations in aquatic ecosystems. Nonetheless, these very few publications indicate far-reaching consequences in the receiving terrestrial ecosystem. For example, bottom-up mediated responses via soil quality can cascade over plant communities up to the level of herbivorous arthropods, while top-down mediated responses via predatory spiders can cascade down to herbivorous arthropods and even plants. Overall, the current state of knowledge calls for an integrated assessment on how these interactions within terrestrial ecosystems are affected by propagation of aquatic ecosystem alterations. To fill these gaps, we propose a scientific framework, which considers abiotic and biotic aspects based on an interdisciplinary approach.

Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of droughts and intensity of seasonal precipitation in many regions. Semiaquatic mammals should be vulnerable to this increased variability in precipitation, especially in human-modified landscapes where dispersal to suitable habitat or temporary refugia may be limited. Using six years of presence-absence data (2007–2012) spanning years of record-breaking drought and flood conditions, we evaluated regional occupancy dynamics of American mink (Neovison vison) and muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus) in a highly altered agroecosystem in Illinois, USA. We used noninvasive sign surveys and a multiseason occupancy modeling approach to estimate annual occupancy rates for both species and related these rates to summer precipitation. We also tracked radiomarked individuals to assess mortality risk for both species when moving in terrestrial areas. Annual model-averaged estimates of occupancy for mink and muskrat were correlated positively to summer precipitation. Mink and muskrats were widespread during a year (2008) with above-average precipitation. However, estimates of site occupancy declined substantially for mink (0.56) and especially muskrats (0.09) during the severe drought of 2012. Mink are generalist predators that probably use terrestrial habitat during droughts. However, mink had substantially greater risk of mortality away from streams. In comparison, muskrats are more restricted to aquatic habitats and likely suffered high mortality during the drought. Our patterns are striking, but a more mechanistic understanding is needed of how semiaquatic species in human-modified ecosystems will respond ecologically in situ to extreme weather events predicted by climate-change models.