Global dynamics of a vector-host epidemic model with age of infection

In this paper, a partial differential equation (PDE) model is proposed to explore the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. The model includes both incubation age of the exposed hosts and infection age of the infectious hosts which describe incubation-age dependent removal rates in the latent period and the variable infectiousness in the infectious period, respectively. The reproductive number R0 is derived. By using the method of Lyapunov function, the global dynamics of the PDE model is further established, and the results show that the basic reproduction number R0 determines the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases: the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 ≤ 1, and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 > 1. The results suggest that an effective strategy to contain vector-borne diseases is decreasing the basic reproduction number R0 below one.

Optimal control of a malaria model with asymptomatic class and superinfection

In this paper, we introduce a malaria model with an asymptomatic class in human population and exposed classes in both human and vector populations. The model assumes that asymptomatic individuals can get re-infected and move to the symptomatic class. In the case of an incomplete treatment, symptomatic individuals move to the asymptomatic class. If successfully treated, the symptomatic individuals recover and move to the susceptible class. The basic reproduction number, R₀, is computed using the next generation approach. The system has a disease-free equilibrium (DFE) which is locally asymptomatically stable when R₀<1, and may have up to four endemic equilibria. The model exhibits backward bifurcation generated by two mechanisms; standard incidence and superinfection. If the model does not allow for superinfection or deaths due to the disease, then DFE is globally stable which suggests that backward bifurcation is no longer possible. Simulations suggest that total prevalence of malaria is the highest if all individuals show symptoms upon infection, but then undergoes an incomplete treatment and the lowest when all the individuals first move to the symptomatic class then treated successfully. Total prevalence is average if more individuals upon infection move to the asymptomatic class. We study optimal control strategies applied to bed-net use and treatment as main tools for reducing the total number of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Simulations suggest that the optimal control strategies are very dynamic. Although they always lead to decrease in the symptomatic infectious individuals, they may lead to increase in the number of asymptomatic infectious individuals. This last scenario occurs if a large portion of newly infected individuals move to the symptomatic class but many of them do not complete treatment or if they all complete treatment but the superinfection rate of asymptomatic individuals is average.

Interleukin 15: A key cytokine for immunotherapy

Interleukin (IL)-15, a member of the immunoregulatory cytokines family, is a pluripotent molecule with therapeutic potential. It is predominantly expressed by the myeloid cells, as well as other cell types. IL-15 serves multiple functions including dictating T cell response, regulating tissue repair and B cell homing, modulating inflammation, and activating NK cells. Among cytokines, IL-15 is unique because of its wide expression, tightly regulated secretion, trans-presentation, and therapeutic potential. IL-15 has been investigated for its therapeutic potential for the induction and maintenance of T cell responses. In addition, IL-15 can be targeted by antibody- or mutant IL-15 therapy to reduce inflammation. Its multifaceted biological applications are crucial in immunotherapy. In this article, we review the functions, expression, and regulation of IL-15 for designing an improved IL-15-based therapy targeting the IL-15 signaling pathway.

Bayesian Melding Approach to Estimate the Reproduction Number for Tuberculosis Transmission in Indian States and Union Territories

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most common infectious diseases and a leading cause of death in the world. Despite the full implementation of Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme, the disease continues to be a leading cause of morality and economic burden in India. The basic reproduction is a fundamental key parameter that quantifies the spread of a disease. In this article, we present a Bayesian melding approach to estimate the basic reproduction number using a deterministic model of TB. We present a point estimate of the basic reproduction number of 35 states and union territories of India during 2006 to 2011. The basic reproduction number of TB for India is computed to be 0.92, which indicates the slow elimination of TB in India during 2006 to 2011.

ASSESSMENT OF VECTOR CONTROL AND PHARMACEUTICAL TREATMENT IN REDUCING MALARIA BURDEN: A SENSITIVITY AND OPTIMAL CONTROL ANALYSIS

Vector control and pharmaceutical treatments are currently the main methods of malaria control. To assess their impacts on disease transmission and prevalence, sensitivity and optimal control analysis are performed respectively on a mathematical malaria model. Comparisons are made between the result of sensitivity analysis and that of optimal control analysis. Numerical simulation shows that optimal control strategy is available and cost-efficient. The simulating results also indicates that vector control is always much more beneficial than other anti-malaria measures in an optimal control programme. This further suggests that the results of sensitivity analysis by calculating sensitivity indices cannot help policy-makers to formulate a more effective optimal control programme.