Fitzgibbon WE, Morgan JJ, Webb GF, Wu Y. Modelling the aqueous transport of an infectious pathogen in regional communities: application to the cholera outbreak in Haiti.
J R Soc Interface 2020;
17:20200429. [PMID:
32752993 DOI:
10.1098/rsif.2020.0429]
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Abstract
A mathematical model is developed to describe the dynamics of the spread of a waterborne disease among communities located along a flowing waterway. The model is formulated as a system of reaction-diffusion-advection partial differential equations in this spatial setting. The compartments of the model consist of susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals in the communities along the waterway, together with a term representing the pathogen load in each community and a term representing the spatial concentration of pathogens flowing along the waterway. The model is applied to the cholera outbreak in Haiti in 2010.
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