Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis for the human melioidosis model

In this work, we formulated and investigated an optimal control problem of the melioidosis epidemic to explain the effectiveness of time-dependent control functions in controlling the spread of the epidemic. The basic reproduction number ( R 0 c ) with control measures is obtained, using the next-generation matrix approach and the impact of the controls on R 0 c is illustrated numerically. The optimal control problem is analyzed using Pontryagin's maximum principle to derive the optimality system. The optimality system is simulated using the forward-backward sweep method based on the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method in the MATLAB program to illustrate the impact of all the possible combinations of the control interventions on the transmission dynamics of the disease. The numerical results indicate that among strategies considered, strategy C is shown to be the most effective in reducing the number of infectious classes compared to both strategy A and strategy B. Furthermore, we carried out a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine the most cost-effective strategy and the result indicated that the strategy B (treatment control strategy) should be recommended to mitigate the spread and impact of the disease regarding the costs of the strategies.

A mathematical model analysis of the human melioidosis transmission dynamics with an asymptomatic case

In this paper, we develop and examine a mathematical model of human melioidosis transmission with asymptomatic cases to describe the dynamics of the epidemic. The basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) of the model is obtained. Disease-free equilibrium of the model is proven to be globally asymptotically stable whenR 0 is less than the unity, while the endemic equilibrium of the model is shown to be locally asymptotically stable ifR 0 is greater than unity. Sensitivity analysis is performed to illustrate the effect of the model parameters influencing on the disease dynamics. Furthermore, numerical experiments of the model are conducted to validate the theoretical findings.

Impact of the WHO Integrated Stewardship Policy on the Control of Methicillin-Resistant Staphyloccus aureus and Third-Generation Cephalosporin-Resistant Escherichia coli: Using a Mathematical Modeling Approach

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and third-generation cephalosporin-resistant Escherichia coli (3GCREc) are community and hospital-associated pathogens causing serious infections among populations by infiltrating into hospitals and surrounding environment. These main multi-drug resistant or antimicrobial resistance (AMR) bacterial pathogens are threats to human health if not properly tackled and controlled. Tackling antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is one of the issues for the World Health Organization (WHO) to design a comprehensive set of interventions which also helps to achieve the end results of the developing indicators proposed by the same organization. A deterministic mathematical model is developed and studied to investigate the impact of the WHO policy on integrated antimicrobial stewardship activities to use effective protection measures to control the spread of AMR diseases such as MRSA and 3GCREc in hospital settings by incorporating the contribution of the healthcare workers in a hospital and the environment in the transmission dynamics of the diseases. The model also takes into account the parameters describing various intervention measures and is used to quantify their contribution in containing the diseases. The impact of combinations of various possible control measures on the overall dynamics of the disease under study is investigated. The model analysis suggests that the contribution of the interventions: screening and isolating the newly admitted patients, improving the hygiene in hospital settings, decolonizing the pathogen carriers, and increasing the frequency of disinfecting the hospital environment are effective tools to contain the disease from invading the population. The study revealed that without any intervention, the diseases will continue to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the affected communities. In addition, the study indicates that a coordinated implementation of the integrated control measures suggested by WHO is more effective in curtailing the spread of the diseases than piecemeal strategies. Numerical experiments are provided to support the theoretical analysis.