New Geomorphological and Historical Elements on Morpho-Evolutive Trends and Relative Sea-Level Changes of Naples Coast in the Last 6000 Years

This research aims to present new data regarding the relative sea-level variations and related morpho-evolutive trends of Naples coast since the mid-Holocene, by interpreting several geomorphological and historical elements. The geomorphological analysis, which was applied to the emerged and submerged sector between Chiaia plain and Pizzofalcone promontory, took into account a dataset that is mainly composed of: measurements from direct surveys; bibliographic data from geological studies; historical sources; ancient pictures and maps; high-resolution digital terrain model (DTM) from Lidar; and, geo-acoustic and optical data from marine surveys off Castel dell’ Ovo carried out by using an USV (Unmanned Surface Vehicle). The GIS analysis of those data combined with iconographic researches allowed for reconstructing the high-resolution geomorphological map and three new palaeoenvironmental scenarios of the study area during the Holocene, deriving from the evaluation of the relative sea-level changes and vertical ground movements of volcano-tectonic origin affecting the coastal sector in the same period. In particular, three different relative sea-level stands were identified, dated around 6.5, 4.5, and 2.0 ky BP, respectively at +7, −5, and −3 m MSL, due to the precise mapping of several paleo-shore platforms that were ordered based on the altimetry and dated thanks to archaeological and geological interpretations.

Ancient Coastal Changes Due to Ground Movements and Human Interventions in the Roman Portus Julius (Pozzuoli Gulf, Italy): Results from Photogrammetric and Direct Surveys

This research aims to evaluate the amount of vertical ground movements during Roman times inside the archaeological area of Portus Julius (Gulf of Pozzuoli) using high-precision surveys on the most reliable archaeological sea-level markers. Measuring the submersion of ancient floors, structural elements belonging to a former fish tank, and several roman pilae, two different relative sea levels (RSLs), related to the beginning and the end of the first century BCE, respectively, −4.7/−5.20 m and −3.10 m MSL (mean sea level), were detected. A photogrammetric survey was carried out in order to produce a 3D model of the fish tank. The results in terms of the RSL variations have enabled us to reconstruct a morpho-evolution of the ancient coastal sector during the last 2.1 kyBP. At the beginning of the first century BCE, the area was characterized by a sheltered gulf with numerous maritime villae located along the coast. In 37 BCE, the construction of the military harbour of Portus Julius strongly modified the paleogeography of the sector, which was also affected by a prevailing subsidence at least until the end of the first century BCE (year 12 BCE), when the port was converted into a commercial hub.

Some Investigations on a Possible Relationship between Ground Deformation and Seismic Activity at Campi Flegrei and Ischia Volcanic Areas (Southern Italy)

In the present paper, we analyse ground tilt and seismicity at Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia Island, two volcanic areas located in the south of Italy. These areas have been well studied for many years from a petrological, volcanological and geophysical view point. Moreover, due to the high seismic and volcanic risk for the populations living there, they are continuously monitored by networks of geophysical and geochemical sensors. We summarize the most important results that we obtained so far, concerning the observations of relationships between seismic activity and ground tilt anomalies, focusing on the time interval 2015–2018. First, we present a detailed description of the tiltmeter and seismic networks in both the investigated areas, as well as their development and improvement over time that has enabled high quality data collection. From the joint analysis of the seismic and borehole tiltmeter signals, we often notice concurrence between tilt pattern variations and the occurrence of seismicity. Moreover, the major tilt anomalies appear to be linked with the rate and energy of volcano-tectonic earthquakes, as well as with exogenous phenomena like solid Earth tides and hydrological cycles. The analysis that we present has potential applicability to other volcanic systems. Our findings show how the joint use tilt and seismic data can contribute to better understanding of the dynamics of volcanoes.

Thoughts on the criteria to determine the origin of volcanic unrest as magmatic or non-magmatic

As our ability to detect volcanic unrest improves, we are increasingly confronted with the question of whether the unrest has a magmatic origin (magma on the move) or a non-magmatic origin from a change in the hydrothermal system (fluids that are not magma on the move) or tectonic processes. The cause of unrest has critical implications for the potential eruptive hazard (e.g. used in constructing Bayesian Event Trees), but is frequently the subject of debate, even at well-studied systems. Here, we propose a set of multi-disciplinary observations and numerical models that could be used to evaluate conceptual models about the cause of unrest. These include measurements of gas fluxes and compositions and the isotopic signature of some components (e.g. H₂, He, C, SO₂, H₂ O, CH₄ and CO₂), the spatial and temporal characteristics of ground deformation, thermal output, seismicity, changes in gravity, and whether there is topographic uplift or subsidence spanning hundreds to thousands of years. In several volcanic systems, both magmatic and non-magmatic unrest is occurring at the same time. While none of these observations or models is diagnostic on its own, we illustrate several examples where they have been used together to make a plausible conceptual model of one or more episodes of unrest and whether eruptions did or did not follow the unrest. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Magma reservoir architecture and dynamics'.

Progressive approach to eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera in southern Italy

Unrest at large calderas rarely ends in eruption, encouraging vulnerable communities to perceive emergency warnings of volcanic activity as false alarms. A classic example is the Campi Flegrei caldera in southern Italy, where three episodes of major uplift since 1950 have raised its central district by about 3 m without an eruption. Individual episodes have conventionally been treated as independent events, so that only data from an ongoing episode are considered pertinent to evaluating eruptive potential. An implicit assumption is that the crust relaxes accumulated stress after each episode. Here we apply a new model of elastic-brittle failure to test the alternative view that successive episodes promote a long-term accumulation of stress in the crust. The results provide the first quantitative evidence that Campi Flegrei is evolving towards conditions more favourable to eruption and identify field tests for predictions on how the caldera will behave during future unrest.

Forecasting eruptions at large calderas remains difficult. Here, the authors apply an elastic-brittle failure model to Campi Flegrei to show that successive episodes of unrest lead to a long-term accumulation of stress in the crust, such that conditions may be becoming more favourable to eruption.

The Campi Flegrei caldera: unrest mechanisms and hazards

In the last four decades, Campi Flegrei caldera has been the world’s most active caldera characterized by intense unrest episodes involving huge ground deformation and seismicity, but, at the time of writing, has not culminated in an eruption. We present a careful review, with new analyses and interpretation, of all the data and recent research results. We deal with three main problems: the tentative reconstruction of the substructure; the modelling of unrest episodes to shed light on possible pre-eruptive scenarios; and the probabilistic estimation of the hazards from explosive pyroclastic products. The results show, for the first time at a volcano, that a very peculiar mechanism is generating episodes of unrest, involving mainly activation of the geothermal system from deeper magma reservoirs. The character and evolution of unrest episodes is strongly controlled by structural features, like the ring-fault system at the borders of the caldera collapse. The use of detailed volcanological, mathematical and statistical procedures also make it possible to obtain a detailed picture of eruptive hazards in the whole Neapolitan area. The complex behaviour of this caldera, involving interaction between magmatic and geothermal phenomena, sheds light on the dynamics of the most dangerous types of volcanoes in the world.