Muography as a new complementary tool in monitoring volcanic hazard: implications for early warning systems

Muography uses muons naturally produced in the interactions between cosmic rays and atmosphere for imaging and characterization of density differences and time-sequential changes in solid (e.g. rocks) and liquid (e.g. melts ± dissolved gases) materials in scales from tens of metres to up to a few kilometres. In addition to being useful in discovering the secrets of the pyramids, ore prospecting and surveillance of nuclear sites, muography successfully images the internal structure of volcanoes. Several field campaigns have demonstrated that muography can image density changes relating to magma ascent and descent, magma flow rate, magma degassing, the shape of the magma body, an empty conduit diameter, hydrothermal activity and major fault lines. In addition, muography is applied for long-term volcano monitoring in a few selected volcanoes around the world. We propose using muography in volcano monitoring in conjunction with other existing techniques for predicting volcanic hazards. This approach can provide an early indication of a possible future eruption and potentially the first estimate of its scale by producing direct evidence of magma ascent through its conduit in real time. Knowing these issues as early as possible buy critically important time for those responsible for the local alarm and evacuation protocols.

Introduction and validation of the Natural Disasters Picture System (NDPS)

Given the growing demand for studies dealing with natural disasters, the research fields of emotion and social cognition require validated picture stimuli of natural hazards. Such material is essential for studying perceptual processes and behaviors of exposed individuals, and it could find practical applications, such as the improvement of communication strategies during crises. We present the Natural Disasters Picture System (NDPS), a database of pictures of natural hazards, with an emphasis on volcanic threats, and their impact on the environment and humans. We first describe in detail the picture selection and database creation. We then report the validation procedure. One hundred twenty participants rated the pictures on the basis of four dimensions: valence, arousal, dominance and certainty. For each picture, we ultimately determined the best-fitting emotion on the basis of its dimensional pattern. The Hierarchical Ascendant Classification, which yielded 4 clusters subdivided into 9 classes, indicated a highly consistent and distinctive classification of the pictures. Overall, 90% of the pictures elicited negative emotions (fear or sadness), and the other 10% induced neutral to positive emotions (e.g., aesthetic emotions). The NDPS offers a new tool for studying natural events and disasters in the field of affective and cognitive sciences, which will benefit from scientific research and its practical applications. The NDPS is unrestrictedly accessible for researchers.

Influence of uncertainty on framed decision-making with moral dilemma

In cases of impending natural disasters, most events are uncertain and emotionally relevant, both critical factors for decision-making. Moreover, for exposed individuals, the sensitivity to the framing of the consequences (gain or loss) and the moral judgments they have to perform (e.g., evacuate or help an injured person) constitute two central effects that have never been examined in the same context of decision-making. In a framed decision-making task with moral dilemma, we investigated whether uncertainty (i.e., unpredictably of events) and a threatening context would influence the framing effect (actions framed in loss are avoided in comparison to the ones framed in gain) and the personal intention effect (unintentional actions are more morally acceptable in comparison to intentional actions) on the perceived moral acceptability of taking action. Considering the impact of uncertainty and fear on the processes underlying these effects, we assumed that these emotions would lead to the negation of the two effects. Our results indicate that the exposure to uncertain events leads to the negation of the framing effect, but does not influence the moral acceptability and the effect of personal intention. We discuss our results in the light of dual-process models (i.e. systematic vs. heuristic), appraisal theories, and neurocognitive aspects. These elements highlight the importance of providing solutions to cope with uncertainty, both for scientists and local populations exposed to natural hazards.