Statistical Framework for Uncertainty Quantification in Computational Molecular Modeling

Bayesian Active Learning for Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification in Protein Docking

Ab initio protein docking represents a major challenge for optimizing a noisy and costly "black box"-like function in a high-dimensional space. Despite progress in this field, there is a lack of rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ). To fill the gap, we introduce a novel algorithm, Bayesian active learning (BAL), for optimization and UQ of such black-box functions with applications to flexible protein docking. BAL directly models the posterior distribution of the global optimum (i.e., native structures) with active sampling and posterior estimation iteratively feeding each other. Furthermore, it uses complex normal modes to span a homogeneous, Euclidean conformation space suitable for high-dimensional optimization and constructs funnel-like energy models for quality estimation of encounter complexes. Over a protein-docking benchmark set and a CAPRI set including homology docking, we establish that BAL significantly improves against starting points from rigid docking and refinements by particle swarm optimization, providing a top-3 near-native prediction for one third targets. Quality assessment empowered with UQ leads to tight quality intervals with half range around 25% of the actual interface root-mean-square deviation and confidence level at 85%. BAL's estimated probability of a prediction being near-native achieves binary classification AUROC at 0.93 and area under the precision recall curve over 0.60 (compared to 0.50 and 0.14, respectively, by chance), which also improves ranking predictions. This study represents the first UQ solution for protein docking, with rigorous theoretical frameworks and comprehensive empirical assessments.

A data-driven framework for sparsity-enhanced surrogates with arbitrary mutually dependent randomness

The challenge of quantifying uncertainty propagation in real-world systems is rooted in the high-dimensionality of the stochastic input and the frequent lack of explicit knowledge of its probability distribution. Traditional approaches show limitations for such problems, especially when the size of the training data is limited. To address these difficulties, we have developed a general framework of constructing surrogate models on spaces of stochastic input with arbitrary probability measure irrespective of the mutual dependencies between individual components of the random inputs and the analytical form. The present Data-driven Sparsity-enhancing Rotation for Arbitrary Randomness (DSRAR) framework includes a data-driven construction of multivariate polynomial basis for arbitrary mutually dependent probability measures and a sparsity enhancement rotation procedure. This sparsity-enhancing rotation method was initially proposed in our previous work [1] for Gaussian density distributions, which may not be feasible for non-Gaussian distributions due to the loss of orthogonality after the rotation. To remedy such difficulties, we developed a new data-driven approach to construct orthonormal polynomials for arbitrary mutually dependent randomness, ensuring the constructed basis maintains the orthogonality/near-orthogonality with respect to the density of the rotated random vector, where directly applying the regular polynomial chaos including arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC) [2] shows limitations due to the assumption of the mutual independence between the components of the random inputs. The developed DSRAR framework leads to accurate recovery, with only limited training data, of a sparse representation of the target functions. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated in challenging problems such as partial differential equations and realistic molecular systems within high-dimensional (O(10)) conformational spaces where the underlying density is implicitly represented by a large collection of sample data, as well as systems with explicitly given non-Gaussian probabilistic measures.

Atomic Radius and Charge Parameter Uncertainty in Biomolecular Solvation Energy Calculations

Atomic radii and charges are two major parameters used in implicit solvent electrostatics and energy calculations. The optimization problem for charges and radii is underdetermined, leading to uncertainty in the values of these parameters and in the results of solvation energy calculations using these parameters. This paper presents a new method for quantifying this uncertainty in implicit solvation calculations of small molecules using surrogate models based on generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions. There are relatively few atom types used to specify radii parameters in implicit solvation calculations; therefore, surrogate models for these low-dimensional spaces could be constructed using least-squares fitting. However, there are many more types of atomic charges; therefore, construction of surrogate models for the charge parameter space requires compressed sensing combined with an iterative rotation method to enhance problem sparsity. We demonstrate the application of the method by presenting results for the uncertainties in small molecule solvation energies based on these approaches. The method presented in this paper is a promising approach for efficiently quantifying uncertainty in a wide range of force field parametrization problems, including those beyond continuum solvation calculations. The intent of this study is to provide a way for developers of implicit solvent model parameter sets to understand the sensitivity of their target properties (solvation energy) on underlying choices for solute radius and charge parameters.