Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Nomograms Based on the Albumin-Bilirubin Grade to Assess the Outcomes of Radiofrequency Ablation

Conventional and machine learning-based risk scores for patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The performance of machine learning (ML) in predicting the outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain. We aimed to develop risk scores using conventional methods and ML to categorize early-stage HCC patients into distinct prognostic groups.

METHODS

The study retrospectively enrolled 1,411 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0 to A HCC from 2012 to 2021. The patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=988) and validation cohort (n=423). Two risk scores (CATS-IF and CATS-INF) were developed to predict overall survival (OS) in the training cohort using the conventional methods (Cox proportional hazards model) and ML-based methods (LASSO Cox regression), respectively. They were then validated and compared in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, factors for the CATS-IF score were selected by the conventional method, including age, curative treatment, single large HCC, serum creatinine and alpha-fetoprotein levels, fibrosis-4 score, lymphocyte-tomonocyte ratio, and albumin-bilirubin grade. The CATS-INF score, determined by ML-based methods, included the above factors and two additional ones (aspartate aminotransferase and prognostic nutritional index). In the validation cohort, both CATS-IF score and CATS-INF score outperformed other modern prognostic scores in predicting OS, with the CATSINF score having the lowest Akaike information criterion value. A calibration plot exhibited good correlation between predicted and observed outcomes for both scores.

CONCLUSION

Both the conventional Cox-based CATS-IF score and ML-based CATS-INF score effectively stratified patients with early-stage HCC into distinct prognostic groups, with the CATS-INF score showing slightly superior performance.

PD-1 Inhibitors Combined with Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors with or without Hepatic Artery Infusion Chemotherapy for the First-Line Treatment of HBV-Related Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Retrospective Study

Purpose

Comparing the efficacy and safety of programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1) inhibitors combined with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) with or without hepatic artery infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) in HBV-related advanced HCC and exploring prognostic predictors of the combined regimen.

Patients and Methods

A total of 194 patients diagnosed with HBV-related advanced HCC between 2020 and 2022 were included in the study, including 99 in the HAIC combined with PD-1 inhibitors plus TKIs (HPT group) and 95 in the PD-1 inhibitors plus TKIs (PT group). The efficacy was evaluated according to the tumor response rate and survival, and the safety was evaluated according to the adverse events.

Results

The HPT group showed higher overall response rate and disease control rate than the PT group. The median overall survival (OS) of the HPT group and the PT group were 18.10 months and 12.57 months, respectively, and the difference was statistically significant (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.519, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.374-0.722, P < 0.001). The median progression-free survival (PFS) was 9.20 months in the HPT group and 6.33 months in the PT group (HR = 0.632, 95% CI: 0.470-0.851, P = 0.002). In addition, albumin bilirubin (ALBI) and systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI) are independent prognostic factors affecting HAIC combined with targeted immunotherapy and can be used as prognostic predictors. Almost all patients included in the study experienced treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) of varying degrees of severity, with grade 1-2 adverse events predominating.

Conclusion

The HPT group had better OS and PFS than the PT group in patients with HBV-related advanced HCC. In addition, high ALBI and high SIRI were associated with poor prognosis in the HAIC combined group.

A novel nomogram to predict the overall survival of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma patients following ablation therapy

Introduction

This study aimed to assess factors affecting the prognosis of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing ablation therapy and create a nomogram for predicting their 3-, 5-, and 8-year overall survival (OS).

Methods

The research included 881 early-stage HCC patients treated at Beijing You'an Hospital, affiliated with Capital Medical University, from 2014 to 2022. A nomogram was developed using independent prognostic factors identified by Lasso and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Its predictive performance was evaluated with concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The study identified age, tumor number, tumor size, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), international normalized ratio (INR), and prealbumin (Palb) as independent prognostic risk factors. The nomogram achieved C-indices of 0.683 (primary cohort) and 0.652 (validation cohort), with Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of 0.776, 0.779, and 0.822 (3-year, 5-year, and 8-year OS, primary cohort) and 0.658, 0.724, and 0.792 (validation cohort), indicating that the nomogram possessed strong discriminative ability. Calibration and DCA curves further confirmed the nomogram's predictive accuracy and clinical utility. The nomogram can effectively stratify patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, particularly identifying high-risk patients.

Conclusions

The established nomogram in our study can provide precise prognostic information for HCC patients following ablation treatment and enable physicians to accurately identify high-risk individuals and facilitate timely intervention.

Predicting cancer-specific mortality in T1/2 hepatocellular carcinoma after radiofrequency ablation by competing risk nomogram: A population-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is one of the primary treatment methods for T1/2 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the risk factors after RFA remain controversial. This study aims to identify the key factors associated with cancer-specific mortality (CSM) in patients with T1/2 HCC after RFA using competing risk analysis and to establish a prognostic nomogram for improved clinical management.

METHODS

A total of 2,135 T1/2 HCC patients treated with RFA were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and randomly categorized into training and validation sets. Univariate and multivariable competing risk analyses were performed to identify risk factors associated with CSM and construct a competing risk nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, concordance indices (C-indexes), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were conducted to evaluate the predictive efficiency and clinical applicability of the nomogram in the training and validation sets. Patients were stratified according to their nomogram score, and the different risk groups were compared using cumulative incidence function (CIF) curves and Gray's validation .

RESULTS

The 5-year CSM rate for HCC patients treated with RFA was 30.1 %. Grade, tumor size, tumor number, cirrhosis, and AFP level were identified as independent risk factors for CSM. A prognostic nomogram was developed based on these risk factors. The time-dependent C-indexes (0.65) were greater than those of the AJCC stage model (0.55) during the 12 to 60 months of follow-up. The calibration plots of the competing risk nomograms demonstrated excellent consistency between actual survival and nomogram predictions. ROC analyses showed that the 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUC values in both the training and validation cohorts were all greater than 0.63 and exceeded those of the AJCC stage model. DCA demonstrated the clinical usefulness of the nomogram. Patients were classified into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups based on the nomogram scores, with the high-risk group showing significantly higher CSM rates after RFA compared to the other two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified Grade, AFP, cirrhosis, tumor size, and tumor number as independent risk factors associated with CSM. The competing risk nomogram exhibited high performance in predicting the probability of CSM for HCC patients undergoing RFA.

Prognostic value of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing transarterial chemoembolization and tyrosine kinase inhibitors plus immune checkpoints inhibitors

Purpose

To investigate the prognostic value of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and tailored tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) plus immune checkpoints inhibitors (ICIs).

Materials and methods

Ninety-eight patients from May 2018 to January 2022 in our hospital were enrolled in this study. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed and the corresponding Youden index was used to determine the optimal PLR cut-off. Overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and adverse events (AEs) of patients were evaluated based on the PLR cut-off. The factors affecting survival were assessed using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses.

Results

The PLR cut-off was 98.89. There were 49 patients in the low pretreatment PLR group (PLR ≤ 98.89) and 49 patients in the high PLR group (PLR > 98.89). Patients with low pretreatment PLR had significantly longer median OS (25.7 months vs 16.1 months; P < 0.001) and PFS (14.9 months vs 10.2 months; P < 0.001) than those with high pretreatment PLR. The multivariate analysis revealed that ALT, tumor size, and PLR are risk factors affecting OS. The three independent factors affecting PFS are tumor size, AFP, and PLR. The AEs were tolerable and manageable.

Conclusion

The low pretreatment PLR (PLR ≤ 98.89) was an independent protective factor for the survival outcomes of patients in this study. PLR was helpful for clinicians to predict the prognosis and identify the patients with uHCC who were most likely to benefit from TACE + TKIs + ICIs.

Albumin-Based Liver Reserve Models vs. MELD 3.0 in Prognostic Prediction for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with Renal Insufficiency

The severity of liver functional reserve is an important prognostic predictor in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), easy (EZ)-ALBI, platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI), platelet-albumin (PAL) score, and MELD 3.0 score are used to evaluate the severity of liver dysfunction. However, their prognostic role in HCC patients, specifically with renal insufficiency (RI), is unclear. We aimed to investigate the predictive accuracy of the five models in these patients. A total of 1120 newly diagnosed HCC patients with RI were enrolled. A multivariate Cox proportional analysis was used to identify independent predictors associated with survival. In the Cox model, older age, an α-fetoprotein ≥20 ng/mL, vascular invasion, a medium and high tumor burden score, poor performance status, a higher ALBI grade, an EZ-ALBI grade, a PALBI grade, a PAL grade, and MELD 3.0 score were all independently associated with decreased overall survival (all p < 0.001). Among the five liver reserve models, the ALBI grade is the best surrogate marker to represent liver functional reserve in terms of outcome prediction. The albumin-based liver reserve models (ALBI, EZ-ALBI, PALBI, and PAL) and MELD 3.0 are all feasible prognostic markers to indicate liver injury, specifically in HCC patients with RI. Among them, the ALBI grade is the most robust tool for survival prediction in these patients.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting new vertebral compression fractures after percutaneous kyphoplasty in postmenopausal patients

BACKGROUND

Postmenopausal women face a heightened risk of developing new vertebral compression fractures (NVCFs) following percutaneous kyphoplasty (PKP) for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs). This study aimed to develop and validate a visual nomogram model capable of accurately predicting NVCF occurrence post-PKP to optimize treatment strategies and minimize occurrence.

METHODS

This retrospective study included postmenopausal women diagnosed with OVCF who underwent PKP at the Affiliated Hospital of Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine between January 2016 and January 2021. Patient data, including basic information, surgical details, imaging records, and laboratory findings, were collected. The patients were categorized into two groups based on NVCF occurrence within 2 years post-PKP: the NVCF group and the non-NVCF group. Following the utilization of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression for feature selection, a nomogram was constructed. Model differentiation, calibration, and clinical applicability were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibration, and decision (DCA) curve analyses.

RESULTS

In total, 357 patients were included in the study. LASSO regression analysis indicated that cement leakage, poor cement diffusion, and endplate fracture were independent predictors of NVCF. The nomogram demonstrated excellent predictive accuracy and clinical applicability.

CONCLUSIONS

This study used LASSO regression to identify three independent predictors of NVCF and developed a predictive model that could effectively predict NVCF occurrence in postmenopausal women. This simple prediction model can support medical decision-making and is feasible for clinical practice.

The worthy role of hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy in combination with anti-programmed cell death protein 1 monoclonal antibody immunotherapy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

Systemic therapy remains the primary therapeutic approach for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Nonetheless, its efficacy in achieving control of intrahepatic lesions is constrained. Hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) is a therapeutic approach that combines localized treatment with systemic antitumor effects, which aim is to effectively manage the progression of cancerous lesions within the liver, particularly in patients with portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT). Combining HAIC with anti-programmed cell death protein 1 (anti-PD-1) monoclonal antibody (mAb) immunotherapy is anticipated to emerge as a novel therapeutic approach aimed at augmenting the response inside the localized tumor site and achieving prolonged survival advantages. In order to assess the effectiveness, safety, and applicability of various therapeutic modalities and to address potential molecular mechanisms underlying the efficacy of HAIC-sensitizing immunotherapy, we reviewed the literature about the combination of HAIC with anti-PD-1 mAb therapies.

Preoperative alkaline phosphatase-to-platelet count ratio as a prognostic factor for hepatocellular carcinoma with microvascular invasion

OBJECTIVES

The association between platelet status and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prognoses remains controversial. Herein, we aimed to clarify the prognostic value of multiple platelet-related biomarkers, including platelet count, platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR), aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), and alkaline phosphatase-to-platelet count ratio index (APPRI) in HCC with microvascular invasion (MVI) after curative resection or liver transplantation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective review of 169 patients with solitary HCC and MVI who underwent resection or liver transplantation between January 2015 and December 2018 was conducted. Preoperative clinical, laboratory, pathologic, and imaging data were collected and analyzed. Overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were defined as the clinical endpoints. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted to investigate potential predictors of DFS and OS.

RESULTS

Multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that maximum tumor diameter, poor cell differentiation, and APPRI were independent predictors of DFS; while poor cell differentiation, APRI, APPRI, prothrombin time, and alpha-fetoprotein were independent prognostic factors for OS. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year DFS rates were 66.90%, 48.40%, and 37.40% for patients with APPRI ≤0.74 and 40.40%, 24.20%,and 24.20% for patients with APPRI>0.74. The corresponding rates of OS over 1, 3, and 5 years were 92.40%, 88.10% and 77.70%, and 72.30%, 38.20%, and 19.10%, respectively. The DFS and OS rates of patients whose APPRI was more than 0.74 were substantially lower than those of patients whose APPRI was less than or equal to 0.74 (p = 0.002 and p < 0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Elevated preoperative APPRI is a noninvasive, simple, and easily assessable parameter linked to poor prognosis in individuals with single HCC and MVI after resection or liver transplantation.

The outcomes and prognostic factors of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and normal serum alpha fetoprotein levels

BACKGROUND

Alpha fetoprotein (AFP) is the most widely used tumor marker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Nevertheless, few studies have investigated the prognostic factors of HCC patients with normal serum AFP levels.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 2198 patients with HCC and normal serum AFP levels (<20 ng/mL) from 2007 to 2020. Overall survival (OS) rates were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and analyses of the prognostic factors were performed using a Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

Among the enrolled patients, 1385 (63%) patients were in the low-normal AFP group (serum AFP levels ≤7 ng/mL), and 813 (37%) patients were in the high-normal AFP group (serum AFP levels between 7 and 20 ng/mL). The high-normal AFP group had poorer liver functional reserve, more multiple tumors, and smaller tumor size compared to those in the low-normal AFP group. After a median follow-up of 32.4 months, 942 patients died, and the 5-year OS rate was 54.4%. The 5-year OS rates were 57.4% and 49.8% in the low-normal AFP group and high-normal AFP group, respectively (p = 0.001). A multivariate analysis showed the independent prognostic factors of poor OS were no anti-viral therapy, advanced albumin-bilirubin grades, the presence of vascular invasion, tumor size ≥5 cm, and non-curative treatment modalities. Serum AFP levels were not associated with OS according to the multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

Liver functional reserve, anti-viral therapy, tumor size, vascular invasion, and treatment modalities, determined the outcomes of HCC patients with normal serum AFP levels, but serum AFP levels did not.

Nomogram to Predict the Long-Term Overall Survival of Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Radiofrequency Ablation

Our objective was to develop a predictive nomogram that could estimate the long-term survival of patients with very early/early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA). For this retrospective study, we enrolled 950 patients who initially received curative RFA for HCC at Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages 0 and A between 2002 and 2016. Factors predicting poor survival after RFA were investigated through a Cox proportional hazard model. The nomogram was constructed using the investigated variables influencing overall survival (OS). After a median follow-up time of 6.25 years, 400 patients had died, and 17 patients had received liver transplantation. The 1-,3-,5-,7-, and 10-year OS rates were 94.5%, 73.5%, 57.9%, 45.7%, and 35.8%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age greater than 65 years, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grades 2 and 3, AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) greater than 1, tumor size larger than 3 cm, diabetes mellitus, end-stage renal disease, and tumor number greater than 1 were significantly associated with poor OS. The nomogram was constructed using these seven variables. The validation results showed a good concordance index of 0.683. When comparing discriminative ability to tumor, node, and metastasis (TNM), BCLC, and Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) staging systems, our nomogram had the highest C-index for predicting mortality. This nomogram provides useful information on prognosis post-RFA as a primary treatment and aids physicians in decision-making.

Establishment and validation of a prognostic pomogram in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma treated with intensity modulated radiotherapy: a real world study

BACKGROUND

To establish a prognostic model to predict the overall survival (OS) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT).

METHODS

The unresectable HCC patients treated with IMRT were retrospectively analyzed and randomized into development cohort (n = 237) and validation cohort (n = 103) in a 7:3 ratio. We developed a prognosis model with the multivariate Cox regression analysis in the development cohort to derive the predictive nomogram, which was then validated in the validation cohort. Model performance was evaluated by the c-index, the area under curve(AUC) and the calibration plot.

RESULTS

A total of 340 patients were enrolled. Tumor numbers > 3 (HR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.21-2.37), AFP ≥ 400 ng/ml (HR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.10-2.10), PLT < 100 × 10^9(HR = 1.7495% CI = 1.11-2.73), ALP > 150U/L (HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.15-2.37) and prior surgery (HR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.43-0.93) were independent prognostic factors. The nomogram based on independent factors was constructed. The c-index for OS prediction was 0.658 (95% CI, 0.647-0.804) and 0.683 (95% CI, 0.580-0.785) in the development and validation cohort, respectively. The nomogram demonstrated good discriminative ability with AUC rates of 0.726, 0.739 and 0.753 at 1-year, 2-year and 3-year models in the development cohort, and 0.715, 0.756 and 0.780 in the validation cohort, respectively. Additionally, good prognostic discrimination of the nomogram is also reflected in stratifying patients into two subgroups with distinct prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

We constructed a prognostic nomogram for predicting the survival of patients with unresectable HCC treated with IMRT.

Efficacy and safety of HAIC alone vs. HAIC combined with lenvatinib for treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

To investigate efficacy and safety of hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy combined with lenvatinib (HAIC-Len) and HAIC alone for the treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (Ad-HCC). Totally 349 patients with Ad-HCC participated in the research from February 2018 to October 2020. On the basis of propensity score matching (PSM), 132 and 110 cases were assigned to the HAIC group and the HAIC-Len group, respectively, with a ratio of 1:1. Progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and complications were compared between two groups. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were utilized to estimate cumulative OS and PFS. Additionally, uni- and multi-variate Cox regression models were employed to identify significant independent factors. The median follow-up period in this study was set to be 20.8 months. Following PSM, the one-, two- and three-year cumulative OS rates in the HAIC-Len and HAIC groups were 63.6%, 12.1%, and 3.0%, and 47.2%, 11.8%, and 2.7%, respectively, with a significant difference (P < 0.001). The first-three-year cumulative incidence rates PFS in the HAIC-Len and the HAIC groups were 15.2%, 1.5%, and ND, and 11.8%, 4.5%, and 3.6%, respectively, with no significant difference detected (P = 0.092). BMI (HR 0.709. 95% CI 0.549, 0.915. P = 0.008) and AST (HR 1.005. 95% CI 1.003, 1.007. P < 0.001) represented independent prognostic factors for OS. Additionally, the two groups exhibited no significant difference in the incidence rates of adverse events. HAIC-Len significantly improved survival outcomes of patients with Ad-HCC and demonstrated acceptable toxicity compared to HAIC alone.

Prognostic Significance of Serum Albumin Level and Albumin-Based Mono- and Combination Biomarkers in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the predominant form of primary liver cancer. Although many surgical and nonsurgical therapeutic options have been established for treating HCC, the overall prognosis for HCC patients receiving different treatment modalities remains inadequate, which causes HCC to remain among the most life-threatening human cancers worldwide. Therefore, it is vitally important and urgently needed to develop valuable and independent prognostic biomarkers for the early prediction of poor prognosis in HCC patients, allowing more time for more timely and appropriate treatment to improve the survival of patients. As the most abundant protein in plasma, human serum albumin (ALB) is predominantly expressed by the liver and exhibits a wide variety of essential biological functions. It has been well recognized that serum ALB level is a significant independent biomarker for a broad spectrum of human diseases including cancer. Moreover, ALB has been commonly used as a potent biomaterial and therapeutic agent in clinical settings for the treatment of various human diseases. This review provides a comprehensive summary of the evidence from the up-to-date published literature to underscore the prognostic significance of serum ALB level and various ALB-based mono- and combination biomarkers in the prediction of the prognosis of HCC patients after treatment with different surgical, locoregional, and systemic therapies.

Nomograms including the controlling nutritional status score in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing transarterial chemoembolisation for prediction survival: a retrospective analysis

This retrospective study investigated the predictive value of the Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score in patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who received transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Nomograms were developed to predict progression-free and overall survival (PFS, OS). The medical data of 228 patients with HCC and treated with TACE were collected. The patients were apportioned to 2 groups according to CONUT score: low or high (<4, ≥4). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using Cox regression for OS and PFS. OS and PFS were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier curve and compared with the log-rank test. Nomograms were constructed to predict patient OS and PFS. The nomograms were evaluated for accuracy, discrimination, and efficiency. The cut-off value of CONUT score was 4. The higher the CONUT score, the worse the survival; Kaplan-Meier curves showed significant differences in OS and PFS between the low and high CONUT score groups (P = 0·033, 0·047). The nomograms including CONUT, based on the prognostic factors determined by the univariate and multivariate analyses, to predict survival in HCC after TACE were generated. The CONUT score is an important prognostic factor for both OS and PFS for patients with intermediate HCC who underwent TACE. The cut-off value of the CONUT score was 4. A high CONUT score suggests poor survival outcomes. Nomograms generated based on the CONUT score were good models to predict patient OS and PFS.

The ALBI score: From liver function in patients with HCC to a general measure of liver function

The (albumin-bilirubin) ‘ALBI’ score is an index of ‘liver function’ that was recently developed to assess prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, irrespective of the degree of underlying liver fibrosis. Other measures of liver function, such as model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh score, which were introduced for specific clinical scenarios, have seen their use extended to other areas of hepatology. In the case of ALBI, its application has been increasingly extended to chronic liver disease in general and in some instances to non-liver diseases where it has proven remarkably accurate in terms of prognosis. With respect to chronic liver disease, numerous publications have shown that ALBI is highly prognostic in patients with all types and stages of chronic liver disease. Outside of liver disease, ALBI has been reported as being of prognostic value in conditions ranging from chronic heart failure to brain tumours. Whilst in several of these reports, explanations for the relationship of liver function to a clinical condition have been proposed, it has to be acknowledged that the specificity of ALBI for liver function has not been clearly demonstrated. Nonetheless, and similar to the MELD and Child-Pugh scores, the lack of any mechanistic basis for ALBI’s clinical utility does not preclude it from being clinically useful in certain situations. Why albumin and bilirubin levels, or a combination thereof, are prognostic in so many different diseases should be studied in the future.

Hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy and sequential ablation treatment in large hepatocellular carcinoma

AIM

To investigate the individualized survival benefit of hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) and sequential ablation treatment in large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients.

METHODS

Between February 2016 and December 2020, a total of 228 HCC patients (diameter > 5 cm) who underwent HAIC alone (HAIC group, n = 135) or HAIC and sequential ablation (HAIC-ablation group, n = 93) treatment were reviewed. We applied the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to adjust for potential bias of two treatment groups. The overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were compared with Kaplan-Meier curves. The Cox regression model was used to identify independent prognostic factors. And a prediction nomogram based on these independent prognostic factors was built, aiming to make probabilistic survival predictions and estimate personalized ablation benefits.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 17.9 months, HCC patients in the HAIC-ablation group have longer significantly OS and PFS than those in the HAIC alone group (median OS: 22.2 months vs. 14.5 months; median PFS: 8.5 months vs. 4.6 months; both, p < 0.001). The IPTW-adjusted analysis revealed similar findings (both, p < 0.001). Tumor size, tumor number, and treatment modality were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS. The nomogram based on these factors showed favorable discrimination and well calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

HAIC and sequential ablation provided significant survival benefits in patients with large HCC. The nomogram could help predict individual survival probabilities and estimate personalized sequential ablation benefits.

A Machine Learning Model Based on Health Records for Predicting Recurrence After Microwave Ablation of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background and Aim

Early recurrence (ER) presents a challenge for the survival prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to investigate machine learning (ML) models using clinical data for predicting ER after microwave ablation (MWA).

Methods

Between August 2005 and December 2019, 1574 patients with early-stage HCC underwent MWA at four hospitals were reviewed. Then, 36 clinical data points per patient were collected, and the patients were assigned to the training, internal, and external validation set. Apart from traditional logistic regression (LR), three ML models—random forest, support vector machine, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—were built and validated for their predictive ability with the area under ROC curve (AUC). Algorithms such as SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) were used to realize their interpretability.

Results

The three ML models all outperformed LR (P < 0.001 for all) in predictive ability. When nine variables (tumor number, platelet, α-fetoprotein, comorbidity score, white blood cell, cholinesterase, prothrombin time, neutrophils, and etiology) were extracted simultaneously using recursive feature elimination with cross-validation, the XGBoost model achieved the best discrimination among all models, with an AUC value 0.75 (95% CI [confidence interval]: 0.72–0.78) in the training set, 0.74 (95% CI: 0.69–0.80) in the internal validation set, and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.70–0.82) in the external validation set, and it was interpreted depending on the visualization of risk factors by the SHAP and LIME algorithms. The predictive system of post-ablation recurrence risk stratification was provided on online (http://114.251.235.51:8001/) based on XGboost analysis.

Conclusion

The XGBoost model based on clinical data can effectively predict ER risk after MWA, which can contribute to surveillance, prevention, and treatment strategies for HCC.

Application of albumin-bilirubin grade and platelet count to indocyanine green-based criteria for hepatectomy: Predicting impaired liver function and postoperative outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Applicability of the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade in preoperative decision-making criteria based on the indocyanine green retention (ICG) test remains unclear. This study aimed to predict abnormal ICG values using standard blood tests and evaluate the impact on postoperative outcomes among patients undergoing hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Data on 949 consecutive HCC patients undergoing curative-intent hepatectomy between 1996 and 2014 were retrospectively assessed. A nomogram using preoperative standard blood tests was created to predict abnormal ICGR15 (>15%).

RESULTS

Three-hundred nine patients had abnormal ICGR15. Predictors of abnormal ICGR15 included in the nomogram were: ALBI grade >1 (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.16, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.59-2.94), platelet count <130 000/mm³ (HR: 2.27, 95% CI: 1.68-3.08), aspartate aminotransferase >50 (IU/L) (HR: 1.90, 95% CI: 1.29-2.81), and viral hepatitis infection (HR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.03-2.07). The nomogram named the PLT-ALBI score was discriminative [C-statistics: 0.719 (0.684-0.754)], and reliable (Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi-Square: 9.05, p = 0.338). The higher PLT-ALBI score was associated with a more frequent incidence of clinically relevant posthepatectomy liver failure and poor overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The PLT-ALBI score is applicable in distinguishing HCC patients with abnormal ICGR15. Patients with higher PLT-ALBI score require more careful postoperative care, despite following the ICG criteria.

Prognostic Role of Albumin-Bilirubin Grade in Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Ultrasound-guided Percutaneous Radiofrequency Ablation: A Single-center Experience Over a Decade

BACKGROUND

The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade has been proposed to evaluate liver function and predict prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Data are scarce in terms of the clinical application of ALBI score in patients with HCC undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA). The current study sought to assess the prognostic efficacy of ALBI grade in early-stage HCC after RFA.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 344 treatment-naive patients, whereby the overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), local tumor progression, and intrahepatic distant recurrence were assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Predictors determining OS and RFS after RFA were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards analysis.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up time of 48.0 months (range: 2 to 158 mo), 48 patients had died because of tumor progression or liver failure. Patients with ALBI grade 2 had poorer OS (P=0.033) and RFS (P=0.002), and higher intrahepatic distant recurrence rate (P<0.001) than those with ALBI grade 1. Local tumor progression rates were comparable between the 2 groups (P=0.801). Multivariate analyses showed that ABLI grade 2 was the only independent risk factor for poor OS (hazard ratio=1.850, 95% confidence interval: 1.041-3.286, P=0.036) and poor RFS (hazard ratio=1.467, 95% confidence interval: 1.094-1.968, P=0.011) after RFA. For Child-Pugh grade A group, patients divided by ALBI grade 1 versus grade 2 showed significant differences in both OS and RFS (P=0.039 and 0.002).

CONCLUSION

The ALBI grade can be used to discriminate long-term prognosis in patients with HCC following RFA and to further stratify prognosis in those with Child-Pugh grade A.

Differential prognoses among male and female patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is significantly higher in men than women. Nonetheless, the impact of sex disparities on HCC outcomes remains unclear. We aimed to compare the clinical manifestations and prognoses between male and female patients with HCC.

METHODS

This retrospective study enrolled 5337 consecutive patients (3976 men, 1361 women) who were diagnosed with HCC from 2007 to 2020. The prognostic factors were identified by the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Male patients were younger upon HCC diagnosis (median age 64 vs 69 years; p < 0.001) with more favorable hepatic functional reserves (39.0% vs 35.1% albumin-bilirubin grade 1; p = 0.025) but had greater tumor burdens than the female patients. Furthermore, fewer male patients underwent curative therapies for HCC compared with the female patients (49.0% vs 57.0%; p < 0.001). After a median follow-up of 20.1 months (interquartile range, 5.8-47.3 months), 3133 patients died. The cumulative 5-year overall survival rates were 37.1% and 41.9% for male and female patients, respectively (p < 0.001). From the multivariate analysis, male sex was not an independent factor predictive of poor overall survival in all patients and in the subgroup analysis stratified by treatment modalities. When stratified by age, the female sex was an independent factor associated with lower mortality in younger (≤50 years) patients but not in older patients with HCC.

CONCLUSION

Sex was not an independent predictor of the outcome of patients with HCC, especially for those aged more than 50 years.

Performance of artificial intelligence for prognostic prediction with the albumin-bilirubin and platelet-albumin-bilirubin for cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding undergoing early transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to validate and compare the prognostic performance of the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) grade, Child-Pugh (CP) grade, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in predicting the 1-year variceal rebleeding probability using artificial intelligence for patients with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding undergoing early transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedures.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This dual-center retrospective study included two cohorts, with patients enrolled between January 2016 and September 2018 in the training cohort and January 2017 and September 2018 in the validation cohort. In the training cohort, independent risk factors associated with the 1-year variceal rebleeding probability were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic analyses. ALBI-, PALBI-, Child-Pugh-, and MELD-based nomograms and an artificial neural network (ANN) model were established and validated internally in the training cohort and externally in the validation cohort, which included patients with variceal bleeding who were treated with preventive TIPS.

RESULTS

A total of 259 patients were included. The median follow-up periods were 24.1 and 18.9 months, and the 1-year variceal rebleeding rates were 12.3% (14/114) and 10.3% (15/145) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. In the training cohort, all four variables were identified as independent risk factors. Four nomograms were then established and showed comparable prognostic performances after internal (C-index: 0.879, 0.829, 0.874, and 0.798) and external (C-index: 0.720, 0.719, 0.718, and 0.703) validation. The ANN demonstrated that these four variables had comparable importance in predicting the 1-year variceal rebleeding probability.

CONCLUSION

None of the four variables are optimal in predicting the 1-year variceal rebleeding probability for patients with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding undergoing early TIPS.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the probability of new vertebral compression fractures after vertebral augmentation of osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures

INTRODUCTION

New vertebral compression fractures (NVCFs) are adverse events after vertebral augmentation of osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs). Predicting the risk of vertebral compression fractures (VCFs) accurately after surgery is still a significant challenge for spinal surgeons. The aim of our study was to identify risk factors of NCVFs after vertebral augmentation of OVCFs and develop a nomogram.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with OVCFs who underwent percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) or percutaneous kyphoplasty (PKP). Patients were divided into the NVCFs group and control group, base on the patients with or without NVCFs within 2 years follow-up period after surgery. A training cohort of 403 patients diagnosed in our hospital from June 2014 to December 2016 was used for model development. The independent predictive factors of postoperative VCFs were determined by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression, univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis. We provided a nomogram for predicting the risk of NVCFs based on independent predictive factors and used the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analyses (DCA) to evaluated the prognostic performance. After internal validation, the nomogram was further evaluated in a validation cohort of 159 patients included between January 2017 and June 2018.

RESULTS

Of the 403 patients in the training cohort, 49(12.16%) were NVCFs at an average of 16.7 (1 to 23) months within the 2 years follow-up period. Of the 159 patients in the validation cohort, 17(10.69%) were NVCFs at an average of 8.7 (1 to 15) months within the 2 years follow-up period. In the training cohort, the proportions of elderly patients older than 80 years were 32.65 and 13.56% in the NVCFs and control group, respectively (p = 0.003). The percentages of patients with previous fracture history were 26.53 and 12.71% in the NVCFs and control group, respectively (p = 0.010). The volume of bone cement were 4.43 ± 0.88 mL and 4.02 ± 1.13 mL in the NVCFs and Control group, respectively (p = 0.014). The differences have statistical significance in the bone cement leakage, bone cement dispersion, contact with endplate, anti-osteoporotic treatment, post-op Cobb angle and Cobb angle restoration characteristics between the two groups. The model was established by multivariate logistic regression analysis to obtain independent predictors. In the training and validation cohort, the AUC of the nomogram were 0.882 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.824-0.940) and 0.869 (95% CI: 0.811-0.927), respectively. The C index of the nomogram was 0.886 in the training cohort and 0.893 in the validation cohort, demonstrating good discrimination. In the training and validation cohort, the optimal calibration curves demonstrated the coincidence between prediction and actual status, and the decision curve analysis demonstrated that the full model had the highest clinical net benefit across the entire range of threshold probabilities.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram for predicting NVCFs after vertebral augmentation was established and validated. For patients evaluated by this model with predictive high risk of developing postoperative VCFs, postoperative management strategies such as enhance osteoporosis-related health education and management should be considered.

ALBI grade: Evidence for an improved model for liver functional estimation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) usually arises in the context of a chronically damaged liver. Liver functional estimation is of paramount importance in clinical decision making. The Child-Pugh score (CPS) can be used to categorise patients into 3 classes (A to C) based on the severity of liver functional impairment according to 5 parameters (albumin, bilirubin, prothrombin time, presence of ascites and hepatic encephalopathy). The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade has emerged as an alternative, reproducible and objective measure of liver functional reserve in patients with HCC, defining worsening liver impairment across 3 grades (I to III). The ALBI score can identify different subgroups of patients with different prognoses across the diverse Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages and CP classes, making it an appealing clinical predictor. In patients treated with potentially curative approaches (resection, transplantation, radiofrequency ablation, microwave ablation), ALBI grade has been shown to correlate with survival, tumour relapse, and post-hepatectomy liver failure. ALBI grade also predicts survival, toxicity and post-procedural liver failure in patients treated with transarterial chemoembolisation, radioembolisation, external beam radiotherapy as well as multi-kinase inhibitors (sorafenib, lenvatinib, cabozantinib, regorafenib) and immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy. In this review, we summarise the body of evidence surrounding the role of ALBI grade as a biomarker capable of optimising patient selection and therapeutic sequencing in HCC.

Single-Centre Retrospective Training Cohort Using Artificial Intelligence for Prognostic Prediction of Encephalopathy, Mortality, and Liver Dysfunction after Early TIPS Creation

OBJECTIVES

Based on an artificial intelligence approach, this study attempted to establish prognostic models to predict 3-month overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) occurrence, 1-year mortality, and liver dysfunction for cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) treated with early transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study included patients treated with early TIPS between January 2016 and November 2019. Independent risk factors associated with occurrence of OHE within 3 months, 1-year mortality, and liver dysfunction after early TIPS were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic analyses. Artificial neural network (ANN) models and prognostic nomograms based on the independent risk factors were established and validated internally.

RESULTS

A total of 207 patients were included, with 33 (15.9%) experienced OHE within 3 months after TIPS creation. The albumin-bilirubin grade (P = 0.015), age (≤ 65, > 65 years) (P < 0.001), gender (P = 0.002), and alcoholic cirrhosis (P = 0.013) was identified as independent risk factors associated with 3-month OHE. Presence of portal vein thrombosis (P = 0.034) and model for end-stage liver disease score (P = 0.063) were identified as independent risk factors associated with 1-year mortality. The platelet-albumin-bilirubin grade (P = 0.041) and a history of hepatic encephalopathy (P = 0.018) were identified as independent risk factors associated with liver dysfunction after TIPS creation. Three ANN models and three nomograms were then established and validated with high accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

The ANN and nomogram models have potential to accurately predict early occurrence of OHE, mortality, and liver dysfunction after early TIPS creation for cirrhotic patients with AVB.

Radiofrequency ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma: Prognostic factors and recent advances

With the improvement of technology and diagnostic level, radiofrequency ablation (RFA) has made rapid progress in the treatment of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the past two decades. Especially, the overall survival after the treatment of small HCCs by RFA can be comparable to that achieved by hepatic resection. The 10-year survival rates of RFA for HCC were 27.3%-46.1%, and for solitary HCC less than 3 cm, the 10-year survival rate is about 74.0%. RFA combined with other therapies can expand the indications of RFA treatment and benefit the survival of patients with HCC. The prognostic model of RFA for HCC provides a powerful tool for individualized clinical diagnosis and treatment.

MELD-Sarcopenia is Better than ALBI and MELD Score in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Awaiting Liver Transplantation

Background:

The albumin bilirubin (ALBI) score and model of end stage liver disease (MELD) are prognostic in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Aim was to compare MELD-sarcopenia to MELD and ALBI scores in patients with HCC awaiting liver transplantation.

Methods:

patients with HCC (n=262) were included and followed up for 12 months. Baseline MELD, ALBI and MELD-sarcopenia models were calculated.

Results:

The average age was 59.61 ±8.09 years. Most patients were males (69.5%), CTP class A (55.7%) and BCLC stage B (54.2%). Hepatitis C virus was the main cause of liver cirrhosis in most patients (88.9%). The average MELD, MELD-sarcopenia and median ALBI score were 10.65 ±2.54, 15.11 ±6.22 and -2.12 (0.74) respectively. Sarcopenia patients had higher MELD, ALBI and MELD-sarcopenia values. Patients with sarcopenia had lower survival (10.09 months) than those without (11.72 months). The ALBI, MELD and MELD-sarcopenia were associated with mortality. ALBI had AUROC of 0.717 (95% CI: 0.659 - 0.771), MELD had AUROC of 0.656 (95% CI: 0.595 - 0.713) and MELD-sarcopenia had AUROC of 0.798 (95% CI: 0.744 - 0.845). The ALBI and MELD scores had comparable AUROC (p=0.081). The MELD-sarcopenia had superior AUROC than MELD (p=0.001) and ALBI (p=0.05).

Conclusion:

MELD-sarcopenia is better prognostic model than the ALBI and MELD scores in HCC patients awaiting liver transplantation.

Platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio predicts therapy outcomes of transarterial chemoembolization plus apatinib in the treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

To evaluate the predictive value of preoperative biochemical marker [platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR)] in patients with advanced hepatocellular cancer receiving transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) plus targeted molecular therapy (apatinib) treatment. Clinical records of 134 patients receiving the treatment of TACE + apatinib (TACE-A) and the treatment of TACE alone were compared in a single-center study. Time to progression (TTP) and overall survival (OS) were compared between TACE-A and TACE alone groups in patients with PLR > 150 and PLR ≤ 150, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the prediction power of PLR. The median TTP and OS in the TACE-A group were significantly longer than those in the TACE alone group (P < 0.001). The median TTP and OS in the TACE-A (PLR ≤ 150) group were longer than those in the TACE-A (PLR > 150) group (P < 0.05). There was no significant difference between TACE-A (PLR > 150) and TACE alone (P = 0.232) groups in OS, but the median TTP in the TACE-A (PLR > 150) group was longer than that in the TACE alone group (P = 0.001). ROC analysis showed that the area under the curve was 0.643 and 0.623 for 6- and 12-month survival, respectively. PLR might predict the results of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma received TACE-A treatment.

Nomogram Based on Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio and Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratio to Predict Recurrence in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Radiofrequency Ablation

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the prognostic value of pre-procedure neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and construct a nomogram to predict disease-free survival (DFS) in patients receiving radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) within Milan criteria.

METHODS

The data of 515 patients of HCC within Milan criteria receiving RFA were retrospectively collected. The patients were divided into two groups: the training group (n = 382) and the validation group (n = 133). Several preprocedural variables were analyzed in the two groups to determine the prognostic factors.

RESULTS

The median DFS time of the training and validation group was 28.4 months and 24.5 months, respectively. Multivariate analyses showed that number of lesions, alpha-feto protein levels, NLR and PLR were independent risk factors of DFS. According to the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (t-ROC), the optimal cutoff value of the NLR and PLR was 1.55 and 75.30, respectively, with sensitivity of 0.737 and 0.648 and specificity of 0.541 and 0.508, respectively. The area under curve (AUC) of the t-ROC curves for the NLR was 0.662 and PLR was 0.597. The DFS was significantly higher in the NLR ≤ 1.55 group compared to NLR > 1.55 group and the PLR ≤ 75.30 group compared to PLR > 75.30 group in both training and validation datasets. Nomogram was developed based on the prognostic factors indicated by the Cox regression to predict 1-, 2-, 3- and 5-year DFS probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

The cutoff value of the NLR and PLR was 1.55 and 75.30. This new nomogram based on NLR and PLR may provide good and individualized prediction of recurrence for HCC patients within Milan criteria after RFA.

Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) Grade-Based Nomogram for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization

BACKGROUND/AIM

The prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is highly heterogeneous because of variable characteristics of tumor burden and liver dysfunction. We aimed to propose and validate an albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade-based prognostic nomogram for HCC patients undergoing TACE.

METHODS

A total of 1051 patients with HCC undergoing TACE were randomly assigned to derivation (n = 525) and validation (n = 526) set in this retrospective study based on prospective data. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model in derivation set was used to generate the nomogram. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated by discrimination and calibration tests.

RESULTS

In multivariate analysis, presence of ascites, ALBI grade 2-3, serum ɑ-fetoprotein level ≥ 400 ng/mL, total tumor volume ≥ 396 cm³, presence of vascular invasion, and poor performance status were independently associated with decreased survival of patients in the derivation set. Each patient had an individualized score from 0 to 41 by adding up the points from these six prognostic predictors. The nomogram generated from the derivation set had a concordance index of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63-0.82). Discrimination test in the validation set provided a good concordance index 0.72 (95% CI 0.62-0.81), and the calibration plots consistently matched the ideal 45-degree reference line for 3- and 5-year survival prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

The ALBI grade-based prognostic model can well discriminate the survival in HCC patients undergoing TACE. The proposed easy-to-use nomogram may accurately predict the survival at 3 and 5 years for individual HCC patient in the precision medicine era.

Tertiary Prevention of HCC in Chronic Hepatitis B or C Infected Patients

Simple Summary

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence is the major obstacle concerning patients’ survival. Tertiary prevention by antiviral therapies could reduce HCC recurrence rate in both chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infected patients. In chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients, nucleos(t)ide analogues (Nuc) provide a more effective HCC tertiary prevention effect than an interferon (IFN)-based regimen. In chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients, the tertiary prevention effect by direct acting antiviral agents (DAAs) was reported non-inferior to that by IFN-based therapy. Chronic hepatitis C patients left untreated had the worst survival benefit as well as shorted recurrence-free interval than those treated by either type of antiviral regimen. Although the risk of HCC recurrence could only be decreased but not diminished by antiviral therapies due to host and microenvironmental factors beyond virus infection, antiviral therapy helps to preserve and improve liver function which makes multi-modality anticancer treatment feasible to improve survival.

Abstract

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ranks as a leading cause of common cancer and cancer-related death. The major etiology of HCC is due to chronic hepatitis virus including HBV and HCV infections. Scheduled HCC surveillance in high risk populations improves the early detection rate and the feasibility of curative treatment. However, high HCC recurrence rate still accounts for the poor prognosis of HCC patients. In this article, we critically review the pathogenesis of viral hepatitis-related hepatocellular carcinoma and the evidence of tertiary prevention efficacy by current available antiviral treatment, and discuss the knowledge gap in viral hepatitis-related HCC tertiary prevention.

A Pre-Operative Prognostic Score for Patients With Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Who Underwent Resection

BACKGROUND

Previous studies demonstrated a promising prognosis in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who underwent surgery, yet a consensus of which population would benefit most from surgery is still unreached.

METHOD

A total of 496 advanced HCC patients who initially underwent liver resection were consecutively collected. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was performed to select significant pre-operative factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS). A prognostic score constructed from these factors was used to divide patients into different risk groups. Survivals were compared between groups with log-rank test. The area under curves (AUC) of the time-dependent receiver operating characteristics was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of prognostic score.

RESULT

For the entire cohort, the median overall survival (OS) was 23.0 months and the median RFS was 12.1 months. Patients were divided into two risk groups according to the prognostic score constructed with ALBI score, tumor size, tumor-invaded liver segments, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, alpha fetoprotein, and portal vein tumor thrombus stage. The median RFS of the low-risk group was significantly longer than that of the high-risk group in both the training (10.1 vs 2.9 months, P<0.001) and the validation groups (13.7 vs 4.6 months, P=0.002). The AUCs of the prognostic score in predicting survival were 0.70 to 0.71 in the training group and 0.71 to 0.72 in the validation group.

CONCLUSION

Surgery could provide promising survival for HCC patients at an advanced stage. Our developed pre-operative prognostic score is effective in identifying advanced-stage HCC patients with better survival benefit for surgery.

A deep survival interpretable radiomics model of hepatocellular carcinoma patients

This work aims to identify a new radiomics signature using imaging phenotypes and clinical variables for risk prediction of overall survival (OS) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). 167 patients were retrospectively analyzed with repeated nested cross-validation to mitigate overfitting issues. 56 radiomic features were extracted from pre-treatment contrast-enhanced (CE) CT images. 37 clinical factors were obtained from patients' electronic records. Variational autoencoders (VAE) based survival models were designed for radiomics and clinical features and a convolutional neural network (CNN) survival model was used for the CECT. Finally, radiomics, clinical and raw image deep learning network (DNN) models were combined to predict the risk probability for OS. The final models yielded c-indices of 0.579 (95%CI: 0.544-0.621), 0.629 (95%CI: 0.601-0.643), 0.581 (95%CI: 0.553-0.613) and 0.650 (95%CI: 0.635-0.683) for radiomics, clinical, image input and combined models on nested cross validation scheme, respectively. Integrated gradients method was used to interpret the trained models. Our interpretability analysis of the DNN showed that the top ranked features were clinical liver function and liver exclusive of tumor radiomics features, which suggests a prominent role of side effects and toxicities in liver outside the tumor region in determining the survival rate of these patients. In summary, novel deep radiomic analysis provides improved performance for risk assessment of HCC prognosis compared with Cox survival models and may facilitate stratification of HCC patients and personalization of their treatment strategies. Liver function was found to contribute most to the OS for these HCC patients and radiomics can aid in their management.

The role of albumin-bilirubin grade in determining the outcomes of patients with very early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and with a single tumor <2 cm in size are classified as having Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0 HCC. We aimed to investigate the role of the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade in predicting outcomes in patients with BCLC stage 0 HCC.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled patients with BCLC stage 0 HCC in Taipei Veterans General Hospital from 2007 to 2015. Prognostic factors were analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model and propensity score matching (PSM) analysis.

RESULTS

There were 420 patients enrolled, including 207 with ALBI grade 1, and 213 with ALBI grade 2 or 3. After a median follow-up of 60.0 months (interquartile range, 37.2-84.6 months), 179 patients died. The cumulative 5-year overall survival (OS) rates were 80.6% in patients with ALBI grade 1 and 53.7% in those with ALBI grade 2 or 3, respectively (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that age >65 years, negative hepatitis B surface in serum, creatinine >1.0 mg/dL, platelet count ≤105/mm3, tumor size >1.5 cm, nonsurgical resection (SR) therapy, and higher ALBI grade were independent risk factors related to poor OS. Patients who underwent SR had a better OS and recurrence-free survival than those who received radiofrequency ablation, which was confirmed by a multivariate analysis and PSM analysis.

CONCLUSION

The ALBI grade can determine OS for patients with BCLC stage 0 HCC. SR can also provide a better outcome than nonsurgical treatment.

Small single perivascular hepatocellular carcinoma: comparisons of radiofrequency ablation and microwave ablation by using propensity score analysis

Objectives

We aimed to compare the therapeutic outcomes of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and microwave ablation (MWA) as first-line therapies in patients with small single perivascular hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods

A total of 144 eligible patients with small (≤ 3 cm) single perivascular (proximity to hepatic and portal veins) HCC who underwent RFA (N = 70) or MWA (N = 74) as first-line treatment were included. The overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and local tumor progression (LTP) rates between the two ablation modalities were compared. The inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) method was used to reduce selection bias. Subgroup analysis was performed according to the type of hepatic vessels.

Results

After a median follow-up time of 38.2 months, there were no significant differences in OS (5-year OS: RFA 77.7% vs. MWA 74.6%; p = 0.600) and DFS (5-year DFS: RFA 24.7% vs. MWA 40.4%; p = 0.570). However, a significantly higher LTP rate was observed in the RFA group than the MWA group (5-year LTP: RFA 24.3% vs. MWA 8.4%; p = 0.030). IPTW-adjusted analyses revealed similar results. The treatment modality (RFA vs. MWA: HR 7.861, 95% CI 1.642–37.635, p = 0.010) was an independent prognostic factor for LTP. We observed a significant interaction effect of ablation modality and type of peritumoral vessel on LTP (p = 0.034). For patients with periportal HCC, the LTP rate was significantly higher in the RFA group than in the MWA group (p = 0.045). However, this difference was not observed in patients with perivenous HCC (p = 0.116).

Conclusions

In patients with a small single periportal HCC, MWA exhibited better tumor control than RFA.

Key Points

• Microwave ablation exhibited better local tumor control than radiofrequency ablation for small single periportal hepatocellular carcinoma.

• There was a significant interaction between the treatment effect of ablation modality and type of peritumoral vessel on local tumor progression.

• The type of peritumoral vessel is vital in choosing ablation modalities for hepatocellular carcinoma.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00330-020-07571-5.

A Nomogram to Predict Regrowth After Ultrasound-Guided Radiofrequency Ablation for Benign Thyroid Nodules

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a nomogram to predict regrowth for patients with benign thyroid nodules undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA).

METHODS

A total of 200 patients with 220 benign thyroid nodules who underwent RFA were included in this respective study. After RFA, patients were followed up at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months, and every 12 months thereafter. Regrowth was defined as an increase in nodule volume 50% over the previously recorded smallest volume. A nomogram was developed based on the variables identified by multivariate logistic regression and the model performance was evaluated by discrimination(concordance index) and calibration curves.

RESULTS

The incidence of regrowth was 13.64% (30/220) after a mean follow-up period of 27.43 ± 17.99 months. Multivariate logistic regression revealed initial volume (OR = 1.047, 95%CI 1.020-1.075), vascularity (OR = 2.037, 95%CI 1.218-3.404), and location close to critical structure (OR = 4.713, 95%CI 1.817-12.223) were independent factors associated with regrowth. The prognostic nomogram incorporating these three factors achieved good calibration and discriminatory abilities with a concordance index of 0.779 (95%CI 0.686-0.872).

CONCLUSIONS

A prognostic nomogram was successfully developed to predict nodule regrowth after RFA, which might guide physician in stratifying patients and provide precise guidance for individualized treatment protocols.

Prognostic Performance of Albumin-Bilirubin Grade With Artificial Intelligence for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated With Transarterial Chemoembolization Combined With Sorafenib

Purpose

To establish albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade-based and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) grade-based nomograms, as well as to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) model to compare the prognostic performance and discrimination of these two grades for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined with sorafenib as an initial treatment.

Methods

This multicenter retrospective study included patients from three hospitals between January 2013 and August 2018. In the training cohort, independent risk factors associated with overall survival (OS) were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. The nomograms and ANN were established and then validated in two validation cohorts.

Results

A total of 504 patients (319, 61, and 124 patients from hospitals A, B, and C, respectively) were included. The median OS was 15.2, 26.9, and 14.8 months in the training cohort and validation cohorts 1 and 2, respectively (P = 0.218). In the training cohort, both ALBI grade and CTP grade were identified as independent risk factors. The ALBI grade-based and CTP grade-based nomograms were established separately and showed similar prognostic performance and discrimination when validated in the validation cohorts (C-index in validation cohort 1: 0.799 vs. 0.779, P = 0.762; in validation cohort 2: 0.700 vs. 0.693, P = 0.803). The ANN model showed that the ALBI grade had higher importance in survival prediction than the CTP grade.

Conclusions

The ALBI grade and CTP grade have comparable prognostic performance for HCC patients treated with TACE combined with sorafenib. ALBI grades 1 and 2 have the potential to act as a stratification factor for clinical trials on the combination therapy of TACE and systemic therapy.

The Role of the Albumin-Bilirubin Score for Predicting the Outcomes in Japanese Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Ramucirumab: A Real-World Study

AIM

The aim of this retrospective study was to investigate the efficacy and safety of ramucirumab treatment under real-world conditions and to clarify the role of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score in predicting outcomes.

METHODS

Between June 2019 and May 2020, a total of 16 patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with ramucirumab in Gunma Saiseikai Maebashi Hospital and its affiliated hospitals was included.

RESULTS

The median age was 71 (interquartile range [IQR] 65-74) years old, and 12 patients (75.0%) were male. The modified ALBI (mALBI) grade was 1, 2a, and 2b at baseline in 4 (25.0%), 3 (18.8%), and 9 patients (56.3%), respectively. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage was intermediate and advanced stage in 1 (6.3%) and 15 patients (93.8%), respectively. The serum α-fetoprotein at baseline was 4,911 (IQR 2,091-17,377) ng/mL. The disease control rate in patients with mALBI grade1 + 2a was significantly higher than in those with mALBI grade 2b (100 vs. 28.6%, p = 0.028). The patients with mALBI grade 1 + 2a had a significantly better overall survival (OS) and longer progression-free survival (PFS) than those with mALBI grade 2b (median OS 6.7 vs. 3.0 months; p = 0.036, median PFS 7.5 vs. 1.4 months; p = 0.002). The number of cycles of ramucirumab treatment was significantly correlated with the ALBI score (r = -0.452, p = 0.030). The patients with mALBI grade 1 + 2a showed a low incidence of adverse events (AEs) and discontinuation due to AEs.

CONCLUSIONS

Advanced HCC patients with mALBI grade 1 + 2a may be a good indication for ramucirumab treatment.

Virtual navigation-guided radiofrequency ablation for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma invisible on ultrasound after hepatic resection

BACKGROUND

No reports are available on the technical efficiency and therapeutic response of virtual navigation (VN)-guided radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatic resection. The aim of this study was to investigate the overall technical performance and outcome of VN-guided RFA in recurrent HCC patients. In addition, a nomogram model was developed to predict the factors influencing the overall survival (OS).

METHODS

This was a prospective study on 76 recurrent HCC patients who underwent VN-guided RFA between June 2015 and February 2018. The technical feasibility, success, and efficiency, OS, local tumor progression, and complications were evaluated. A multivariate Cox regression analysis was conducted to predict the significant factors, and a nomogram including independent predictive factors was subsequently plotted to predict OS.

RESULTS

The technical feasibility, success, and efficiency rates of VN-guided RFA were 86.4%, 94.7%, and 97.4%, respectively. The cumulative OS rates at 1-, 2-, and 3-year were 88.1%, 79.7%, and 71.0%, respectively. The cumulative local tumor progression rates at 1-, 2-, and 3-year were 5.5%, 8.7%, and 14.0%, respectively. In addition, the minor and major complication rates were 5.3% and 3.9%, respectively. No intervention-related deaths occurred during the follow-up period. The C-index of the OS nomogram in this study was 0.737.

CONCLUSIONS

VN-guided RFA is an effective therapeutic option in recurrent HCC patients and improves the long-term outcomes especially for the lesions that cannot be detected in the two-dimensional ultrasound. Besides, the nomogram may be a useful supporting tool in predicting OS to estimate the individual survival probability, optimize treatment options, and facilitate decision-making.

Predicting outcomes for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma within Milan criteria after complete radiofrequency ablation

BACKGROUND

Intrahepatic distant recurrence (IDR) is a significant problem for patients who have undergone radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The objective of the study was to investigate risk factors and to predict outcomes of recurrent IDR within Milan criteria after complete RFA for primary early-stage HCC.

METHOD

This retrospective study reviewed 449 patients with intrahepatic distant recurrent HCC after complete RFA for early-stage HCC. After excluding 100 patients who were beyond Milan criteria, with incomplete lab data, or had follow-up less than three months, a total of 349 patient cases were compiled and their baseline characteristics, further treatment modalities after tumor recurrence and survival were analyzed.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 36.2 months, 92 patients had expired. The majority of patients were male (59.9%) with a median age of 64.3 years (range:38-88). The cumulative 5-year overall survival (OS) rates after treatment for recurrent HCC was 67.2%. On multivariate analysis, end-stage renal disease(Hazard ratio (H.R.) = 2.33, p = 0.021), m-ALBI grade 2a (H.R. = 2.86, p = 0.003) and m-ALBI grades 2b or 3 (H.R. = 2.30, p = 0.009), APRI greater than 1 (H.R. = 1.92, p = 0.036) and 2nd recurrence occurring within 1 year (H.R. = 2.69, p<0.001) were significantly associated with worse survival. The cumulative 5-year 2nd recurrence rate was 87.4%. On multivariate analysis, male gender (H.R. = 1.47, p = 0.01), age greater than 65 years (H.R. = 1.72, p<0.001), an alpha fetoprotein level greater than 20ng/ml (H.R. = 1.41, p = 0.016), surgical treatment for recurrent HCC (H.R. = 0.25, p = 0.007), tumor number greater than 1 (H.R. = 1.35, p = 0.046), and IDR developing within 2 years (H.R. = 1.67, p = 0.001) were prognostic factors for 2nd recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggested that presence of end-stage renal disease, m-ALBI grades 2 and 3, APRI >1 and time to 2nd HCC recurrence were all associated with overall survival while the 2nd HCC recurrence was associated with male gender, age ≥65 years, α-fetoprotein level >20 ng/mL, non-surgical therapy, time to IDR, and tumor number> 1.

Assessment of the Outcomes of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma After Ultrasound-Guided Percutaneous Microwave Ablation Based on Albumin-Bilirubin Grade

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade could be used to predict the outcomes of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) who underwent ultrasound-guided percutaneous microwave ablation (MWA).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board, and the requirement for informed consent was waived. We studied 52 treatment-naïve patients with 74 ICC lesions according to the Milan criteria who subsequently underwent MWA from April 2011 to March 2018. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were compared in groups classified by Child-Pugh score and ALBI grade, which were statistically analyzed with the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were used to determine the prognostic factors for survival in patients with ICC.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time was 21.2 months (3.2-78.7 months). Seventeen patients died during this period. After MWA, the cumulative 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 87.4%, 51.4%, and 35.2%, respectively, and the cumulative 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS rates were 68.9%, 56.9%, and 56.9%, respectively. The major complication rate was 3.8% (2/52). Stratified according to ALBI grade, the cumulative 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 95.5%, 72.4%, and 72.4% for patients with ALBI grade 1 and 62.5%, 40.6%, and 36.3% for patients with ALBI grade 2, respectively, showing a significant difference (P = 0.006). Multivariate analysis results showed that older age (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.67, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11-2.82; P = 0.002), tumor size ≥ 3 cm in diameter (HR: 11.33, CI: 2.24-34.52; P = 0.021) and ALBI grade (HR: 8.23, CI: 1.58-58.00; P = 0.004) may be predictors of poor OS.

CONCLUSION

ALBI grade was validated as a significant biomarker for predicting survival in ICC patients within the Milan criteria who underwent MWA.

A comparison of prognoses between surgical resection and radiofrequency ablation therapy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and esophagogastric varices

There has been insufficient investigation of the differences in long-term outcomes between surgical resection (SR) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and esophagogastric varices (EGV). We retrospectively enrolled 251 patients with treatment-naïve HCC and EGV who underwent SR or RFA as a first-line treatment. Prognostic factors were analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model. A total of 68 patients underwent SR, and the remaining 183 patients received RFA. Patients who underwent SR were younger, had better liver functional reserves, and had larger tumors. After a median follow-up duration of 45.1 months, 151 patients died. The cumulative 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was significantly higher among patients who underwent SR than those treated with RFA (66.7% vs. 36.8%, p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that age > 65 years, multiple tumors, RFA, albumin bilirubin grade > 1, and the occurrence of major peri-procedural morbidity were the independent risk factors that are predictive of poor OS. In conclusion, SR could be recommended as a first-line treatment modality for HCC patients with EGV if the patients are carefully selected and liver function is well preserved.

Prognostic significance of controlling nutritional status score-based nomogram for hepatocellular carcinoma within Milan criteria after radiofrequency ablation

Background

Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is a curative therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) within Milan criteria. This study was conducted to evaluate the association between controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score and oncological outcomes in HCC patients within Milan criteria after RFA. Nomograms were constructed for the prediction of prognosis.

Methods

The study included 403 HCC patients within Milan criteria who underwent RFA at National Cancer Center and the First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University from January 2010 to December 2014. Oncological outcomes included disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). The clinical variables were assessed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. C-index, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (t-ROC) curve (t-AUC) and calibration plots were used to evaluate discrimination and calibration of the nomograms.

Results

Patients were divided into CONUT ≤4 and ≥5 groups. The common prognostic factors affecting DFS and OS were number of lesions, tumor differentiation, and CONUT score. Age and total bilirubin (TBIL) were prognostic factors for OS only. Both DFS and OS rates in CONUT ≤4 group were significantly higher than those in CONUT ≥5 group (P=0.033, P<0.001). Two well-discriminated and calibrated nomograms were constructed to predict the probability of 1-, 2-, and 3-year DFS and 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-year OS with C-indexes of 0.798 and 0.757, respectively.

Conclusions

CONUT score is an independent prognostic factor for HCC after RFA treatment and a reliable indicator for nutritional interventions. Higher CONUT scores were associated with poor oncological outcomes. Nomograms based on CONUT score could efficiently predict DFS and OS for HCC patients within Milan criteria after RFA.

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and albumin bilirubin grade in hepatocellular carcinoma: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a frequent cause of cancer related death globally. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and albumin bilirubin (ALBI) grade are emerging prognostic indicators in HCC.

AIM

To study published literature of NLR and ALBI over the last five years, and to validate NLR and ALBI locally in our centre as indicators of HCC survival.

METHODS

A systematic review of the published literature on PubMed of NLR and ALBI in HCC over the last five years. The search followed the guidelines of the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Additionally, we also investigated HCC cases between December 2013 and December 2018 in our centre.

RESULTS

There were 54 studies describing the relation between HCC and NLR and 95 studies describing the relation between HCC and ALBI grade over the last five years. Our local cohort of patients showed NLR to have a significant negative relationship to survival (P = 0.011). There was also significant inverse relationship between the size of the largest HCC nodule and survival (P = 0.009). Median survival with alpha fetoprotein (AFP) < 10 KU/L was 20 mo and with AFP > 10 KU/L was 5 mo. We found that AFP was inversely related to survival, this relationship was not statically significant (P = 0.132). Mean survival for ALBI grade 1 was 37.7 mo, ALBI grade 2 was 13.4 months and ALBI grade 3 was 4.5 mo. ALBI grades performed better than Child Turcotte Pugh score in detecting death from HCC.

CONCLUSION

NLR and ALBI grade in HCC predict survival better than the conventional alpha fetoprotein. ALBI grade performs better than Child Turcotte Pugh score. These markers are done as part of routine clinical care and in cases of normal alpha fetoprotein, these markers could give a better understanding of the patient disease progression. NLR and ALBI grade could have a role in modified easier to learn staging and prognostic systems for HCC.

An Improved Scoring System Based on Platelet-Albumin-Bilirubin in Predicting Posthepatectomy Liver Failure Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is one of the major complications of liver resection that causes perioperative mortality. Accurate preoperative assessment of PHLF is of great significance to reduce the complication rate after hepatectomy and improve the survival rate.

METHODS

A retrospective study of patients who received hepatectomy from January 2016 to October 2019 at Tang Du Hospital was performed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to compare the predictive effects of various scoring models on PHLF.

RESULTS

The area under the ROC curve of platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) score, new platelet-albumin-bilirubin (I-PALBI) score, ALBI score, and MELD score was, respectively, 0.647, 0.772, 0.677, and 0.686 (p < 0.01). The I-PALBI score was significantly better than the other scores.

CONCLUSIONS

I-PALBI score can be used as a predictive score of PHLF, and its prediction accuracy is better than other scoring systems.

Development and Validation of a Clinicopathological-Based Nomogram to Predict the Survival Outcome of Patients with Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Hepatectomy Who Underwent Microwave Ablation

Aim

To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) in patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatectomy who underwent microwave ablation (MWA).

Methods

The training cohort included 299 patients with recurrent HCCs after hepatectomy who met the Milan criteria and received MWA from April 2007 to December 2017. Baseline characteristics were collected to identify risk factors for the determination of death after MWA. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model based on significant risk factors was used to develop the nomogram, which was then assessed for its predictive accuracy using Harrell’s C-index and the area under the curve (AUC). The nomogram was validated by internal (n = 240) and external cohorts (n = 205) from another hospital.

Results

After a median follow-up of 32.3 months, 38.8% (116/299) of patients had died. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses showed that comorbid disease, early recurrence, and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grades 2–3 were independent prognostic factors for poor OS. This nomogram accurately stratified patients into subgroups with low or high risk. The 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rates in the low-risk subgroup were 99.4%, 97.2%, and 86.1%, respectively, and they were 92.8%, 70.3%, and 45.8% in the high-risk subgroup (P < 0.001). The nomogram predicted OS in the training cohort with a C-index score of 0.801 (95% CI 0.761–0.841). The nomogram was validated by internal and external cohorts, with C-index scores of 0.792 (95% CI 0.738–0.846) and 0.744 (95% CI 0.703–0.785), respectively.

Conclusion

The nomogram provides individualized risk estimates for long-term OS for patients with recurrent HCC after hepatectomy who underwent MWA.

Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Thermal Ablation

PURPOSE

To develop an effective prognostic nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after thermal ablation.

METHODS

A total of 772 patients with intrahepatic primary or recurrent HCC who underwent radiofrequency ablation or microwave ablation between March 2011 and October 2016 were included. 602 patients (mean age, 56.0 ± 11.9 years; 495 male/107 female) were included in the primary cohort to establish a prognostic nomogram. Significant prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) identified by Cox univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to construct the nomogram. The remaining 170 patients (mean age, 55.9 ± 11.9 years; 145 male/25 female) were used to validate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up period of 26 months (range 1-85 months), the median OS periods were 48.6 months and 44.0 months for the primary and validation cohorts. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 85.5%, 61.4%, and 43.3% in the primary cohort and 84.7%, 59.6%, and 43.3% in the prospective validation cohort, respectively. Multivariate analysis found that pre-ablation treatment, AFP, CEA, CA19-9, ALBI grade, tumor number, and tumor size (hazard ratio > 1, P < 0.05) were independent risk factors for OS. A nomogram was developed based on these seven variables. The calibration curve for predicting the probability of survival showed a good agreement between the nomogram and actual observation both in the primary (concrete index: 0.699) and validation cohorts (concrete index: 0.734).

CONCLUSIONS

This simple nomogram based on seven variables including ALBI grade offers personalized prognostic data for HCC patients after ablation.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level 4, case series.

The prognostic and predictive value of the albumin-bilirubin score in advanced pancreatic cancer

Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) showed its prognostic and predictive value in hepatobiliary disease like hepatocellular carcinoma. However, little has been known about its role in pancreatic cancer.In this retrospective study, 149 patients with advanced pancreatic cancer (APC) treated in the Shanghai General Hospital from January 2009 to December 2014 were enrolled as the training cohort and 120 patients treated from January 2015 to December 2018 were taken as the validation cohort. We generated the ALBI score according previous studies. The correlations between ALBI and clinicopathological parameters were evaluated with the Pearson Chi-square test. Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were conducted to determine the correlation between ALBI and overall survival (OS). Then we used Cox regression model to investigate the prognostic significance of ALBI. We further assessed retrospectively whether ALBI score could be used to identify combination therapy candidates for APC.Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status, hemoglobin, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase were found to be significantly correlated with ALBI. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the median OS in patients with a pretreatment ALBI ≥-2.6 was 7.0 months, which was significantly shorter than OS of patients with a ALBI <-2.6 (13.0 months, P = .001). ALBI was independently correlated with OS in multivariate analysis. In the subgroup analysis, ALBI showed significant prognostic value in patients with liver metastasis but not those without liver metastasis in all 3 cohorts. In addition, only in the group with ALBI <-2.6, patients receiving combination therapy showed better prognosis than those receiving monotherapy.In conclusion, ALBI was a promising prognostic biomarker in APC with liver metastasis. ALBI also showed predictive value in identifying combination therapy candidates for patients with APC.