Impact of age, comorbidities and relevant changes on surveillance strategy of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms: a competing risk analysis

OBJECTIVE

Cost-effectiveness of surveillance for branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) is debated. We combined different categories of risks of IPMN progression and of IPMN-unrelated mortality to improve surveillance strategies.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of 926 presumed BD-IPMNs lacking worrisome features (WFs)/high-risk stigmata (HRS) under surveillance. Charlson Comorbidity Index (CACI) defined the severity of comorbidities. IPMN relevant changes included development of WF/HRS, pancreatectomy or death for IPMN or pancreatic cancer. Pancreatic malignancy-unrelated death was recorded. Cumulative incidence of IPMN relevant changes were estimated using the competing risk approach.

RESULTS

5-year cumulative incidence of relevant changes was 17.83% and 1.6% developed pancreatic malignancy. 5-year cumulative incidences for IPMN relevant changes were 13.73%, 19.93% and 25.04% in low-risk, intermediate-risk and high-risk groups, respectively. Age ≥75 (HR: 4.15) and CACI >3 (HR: 3.61) were independent predictors of pancreatic malignancy-unrelated death. 5-year cumulative incidence for death for other causes was 15.93% for age ≥75+CACI >3 group and 1.49% for age <75+CACI ≤3. 5-year cumulative incidence of IPMN relevant changes were 13.94% in patients with age <75+CACI ≤3 compared with 29.60% in those with age ≥75+CACI >3. In this group 5-year rate of malignancy-free patients was 95.56% with a 5-year survival of 79.51%.

CONCLUSION

Although it is not uncommon the occurrence of changes considered by current guidelines as relevant during surveillance of low risk BD-IPMNs, malignancy rate is low and survival is significantly affected by competing patients' age and comorbidities. IPMN surveillance strategy should be tailored based on these features and modulated over time.

Ultrasound Surveillance of Small, Incidentally Detected Gallbladder Polyps: Projected Benefits by Sex, Age, and Comorbidity Level

OBJECTIVE

Incidentally detected gallbladder polyps are commonly encountered when performing upper abdominal ultrasound. Our purpose was to estimate the life expectancy (LE) benefit of ultrasound-based gallbladder surveillance in patients with small (6-7 to <10 mm), incidentally detected gallbladder polyps, accounting for patient sex, age, and comorbidity level.

METHODS

We developed a decision-analytic Markov model to evaluate hypothetical cohorts of women and men with small gallbladder polyps, with varying age (66-80 years) and comorbidity level (none, mild, moderate, severe). Drawing from current evidence, in the base case, we assumed no increased risk of gallbladder cancer in patients with small gallbladder polyps. To estimate maximal possible LE gains from surveillance, we assumed perfect cancer control consequent to 5 years of surveillance. We varied key assumptions including cancer risk and test performance characteristics in sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Projected LE gains from surveillance were <3 days across most cohorts and scenarios evaluated. For 66- and 80-year-olds with no comorbidities, LE gains were 1.46 and 1.45 days, respectively, for women, and 0.67 and 0.75 days for men. With 10 years of surveillance, LE gains increased to 2.94 days for 66-year-old women with no comorbidities (men: 1.35 days). If we assumed a 10% increase in gallbladder cancer risk among individuals with polyps, LE gains increased slightly to 1.60 days for 66-year-old women with no comorbidities (men: 0.74 days). Results were sensitive to test performance and surgical mortality.

DISCUSSION

Even under unrealistic, optimistic assumptions of cancer control, ultrasound surveillance of incidentally detected small gallbladder polyps provided limited benefit.

The impact of pancreatic cancer screening on life expectancy: A systematic review of modeling studies

Evidence supporting the effectiveness of pancreatic cancer (PC) screening is scant. Most clinical studies concern small populations with short follow-up durations. Mathematical models are useful to estimate long-term effects of PC screening using short-term indicators. This systematic review aims to evaluate the impact of PC screening on life expectancy (LE) in model-based studies. Therefore, we searched four databases (Embase, Medline, Web-of-science, Cochrane) until 30 May 2022 to identify model-based studies evaluating the impact of PC screening on LE in different risk populations. Two authors independently screened identified papers, extracted data and assessed the methodological quality of studies. A descriptive analysis was performed and the impact of screening strategies on LE of different risk groups was reported. Our search resulted in 419 studies, of which eight met the eligibility criteria (mathematical model, PC screening, LE). Reported relative risks (RR) for PC varied from 1 to 70. In higher risk individuals (RR > 5), annual screening (by imaging with 56% sensitivity for HGD/early stage PC) predicted to increase LE of screened individuals by 20 to 260 days. In the general population, one-time PC screening was estimated to decrease LE (2-110 days), depending on the test characteristics and treatment mortality risk. In conclusion, although the models use different and sometimes outdated or unrealistic assumptions, it seems that PC screening in high-risk populations improves LE, and that this gain increases with a higher PC risk. Updated model studies, with data from large clinical trials are necessary to predict the long-term effect of PC screening more accurately.

Surveillance in Older Women With Incidental Ovarian Cysts: Maximal Projected Benefits by Age and Comorbidity Level

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to estimate effects on life expectancy (LE) of imaging-based ovarian surveillance after detection of incidental postmenopausal ovarian cysts, under different assumptions of patient age, comorbidity level, and cancer risk and detection.

METHODS

A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to estimate LE benefits. Hypothetical cohorts of postmenopausal women with simple ovarian cysts were evaluated, with varied age (66-80 years) and comorbidity level (none, mild, moderate, severe). For each cohort, imaging "follow-up" (2 years) and "no-follow-up" strategies were compared. Consistent with current evidence, increased cancer risk in patients with cysts was not assumed; however, incident ovarian cancers could be detected during follow-up. To estimate theoretical maximal LE gains from follow-up, perfect ovarian cancer detection and treatment during follow-up were assumed. This and other key assumptions were varied in sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Projected LE gains from follow-up were limited. For 66-, 70-, 75-, and 80-year-old women with no comorbidities, LE gains were 5.1, 5.1, 4.5, and 3.7 days; with severe comorbidities, they were 3.5, 3.2, 2.7, and 2.1 days. With sensitivity of 50% for cancer detection, they were 3.7 days for 66-year-old women with no comorbidities and 1.3 days for 80-year-old women with severe comorbidities. When cancer risk for women with cysts was assumed to be elevated (1.1 times average risk), LE gains increased only modestly (5.6 and 2.3 days for analogous cohorts).

CONCLUSIONS

Even in the circumstance of perfect ovarian cancer detection and treatment, surveillance of postmenopausal women (≥66 years of age) with simple cysts affords limited benefits, particularly in women with advanced age and comorbidities.

Active Surveillance Versus Nephron-Sparing Surgery for a Bosniak IIF or III Renal Cyst: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

OBJECTIVE

The objective of our study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of active surveillance (AS) versus nephron-sparing surgery (NSS) in patients with a Bosniak IIF or III renal cyst.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Markov models were developed to estimate life expectancy and lifetime costs for 60-year-old patients with a Bosniak IIF or III renal cyst (the reference cases) managed by AS versus NSS. The models incorporated the malignancy rates, reclassification rates during follow-up, treatment effectiveness, complications and costs, and short- and long-term outcomes. An incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to identify management preference under an assumed $75,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) societal willingness-to-pay threshold, using data from studies in the literature and the 2015 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule. The effects of key parameters were addressed in a multiway sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

The prevalence of malignancy for Bosniak IIF and III renal cysts was 26% (25/96) and 52% (542/1046). Under base case assumptions for Bosniak IIF cysts, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of NSS relative to AS was $731,309 per QALY for women, exceeding the assumed societal willingness-to-pay threshold, and AS outperformed NSS for both life expectancy and cost for men. For Bosniak III cysts, AS yielded greater life expectancy (24.8 and 19.4 more days) and lower lifetime costs (cost difference of $12,128 and $11,901) than NSS for men and women, indicating dominance of AS over NSS. Superiority of AS held true in sensitivity analyses for men 46 years old or older and women 57 years old or older even when all parameters were set to favor NSS.

CONCLUSION

AS is more cost-effective than NSS for patients with a Bosniak IIF or III renal cyst.

Systematic review and meta-analysis: Prevalence of incidentally detected pancreatic cystic lesions in asymptomatic individuals

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) are frequent incidental findings. As most PCLs require costly diagnostic evaluation and active surveillance, it is important to clarify their prevalence in asymptomatic individuals. We therefore aimed at performing a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine it.

METHODS

a systematic search was conducted and studies meeting inclusion criteria were included. The prevalence of PCLs was pooled across studies. A random effect model was used with assessment of heterogeneity.

RESULTS

17 studies, with 48,860 patients, were included. Only 3 were prospective; 5 studies were conducted in the US, 7 in Europe, 4 in Asia and 1 in Brazil. The pooled prevalence of PCLs was 8% (95% CI 4-14) with considerable heterogeneity (I² = 99.5%). This prevalence was higher in studies of higher quality, examining older subjects, smaller cohorts, and employing MRCP (24.8% vs 2.7% with CT-scan). The pooled rate of PCLs was four times higher in studies conducted in the US than in Asia (12.6% vs 3.1%). 7 studies reported the prevalence of mucinous lesions, with a pooled rate of 4.3% (95% CI 2-10; I² = 99.2%), but of 0.7% only for worrisome features or high risk stigmata.

CONCLUSION

The rate of incidentally detected PCLs is of 8%. Mucinous lesions are the most common incidentally detected PCLs, although they rarely present with potential indication for surgery. The observed different rates in the US and other geographic Areas suggest that different protocols might be necessary to help balancing costs and effectiveness of follow-up investigations in asymptomatic subjects.