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Crippa S, Marchegiani G, Belfiori G, Rancoita PVM, Pollini T, Burelli A, Apadula L, Scarale MG, Socci D, Biancotto M, Vanella G, Arcidiacono PG, Capurso G, Salvia R, Falconi M. Impact of age, comorbidities and relevant changes on surveillance strategy of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms: a competing risk analysis. Gut 2024; 73:1336-1342. [PMID: 38653539 DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2023-329961] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2023] [Accepted: 04/14/2024] [Indexed: 04/25/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Cost-effectiveness of surveillance for branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) is debated. We combined different categories of risks of IPMN progression and of IPMN-unrelated mortality to improve surveillance strategies. DESIGN Retrospective analysis of 926 presumed BD-IPMNs lacking worrisome features (WFs)/high-risk stigmata (HRS) under surveillance. Charlson Comorbidity Index (CACI) defined the severity of comorbidities. IPMN relevant changes included development of WF/HRS, pancreatectomy or death for IPMN or pancreatic cancer. Pancreatic malignancy-unrelated death was recorded. Cumulative incidence of IPMN relevant changes were estimated using the competing risk approach. RESULTS 5-year cumulative incidence of relevant changes was 17.83% and 1.6% developed pancreatic malignancy. 5-year cumulative incidences for IPMN relevant changes were 13.73%, 19.93% and 25.04% in low-risk, intermediate-risk and high-risk groups, respectively. Age ≥75 (HR: 4.15) and CACI >3 (HR: 3.61) were independent predictors of pancreatic malignancy-unrelated death. 5-year cumulative incidence for death for other causes was 15.93% for age ≥75+CACI >3 group and 1.49% for age <75+CACI ≤3. 5-year cumulative incidence of IPMN relevant changes were 13.94% in patients with age <75+CACI ≤3 compared with 29.60% in those with age ≥75+CACI >3. In this group 5-year rate of malignancy-free patients was 95.56% with a 5-year survival of 79.51%. CONCLUSION Although it is not uncommon the occurrence of changes considered by current guidelines as relevant during surveillance of low risk BD-IPMNs, malignancy rate is low and survival is significantly affected by competing patients' age and comorbidities. IPMN surveillance strategy should be tailored based on these features and modulated over time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stefano Crippa
- Division of Pancreatic Surgery, Pancreas Translational and Clinical Research Center, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy
| | - Giovanni Marchegiani
- Division of General and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery and Oncology, University of Verona Hospital Trust, GB Rossi Hospital, Verona, Italy
| | - Giulio Belfiori
- Division of Pancreatic Surgery, Pancreas Translational and Clinical Research Center, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy
| | | | - Tommaso Pollini
- Division of General and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery and Oncology, University of Verona Hospital Trust, GB Rossi Hospital, Verona, Italy
| | - Anna Burelli
- Division of General and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery and Oncology, University of Verona Hospital Trust, GB Rossi Hospital, Verona, Italy
| | - Laura Apadula
- Division of Pancreato-Biliary Endoscopy and Endosonography, Pancreas Translational and Clinical Research Center, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy
| | - Maria Giovanna Scarale
- University Center of Statistics in the Biomedical Sciences, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy
| | - Davide Socci
- Division of Pancreatic Surgery, Pancreas Translational and Clinical Research Center, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy
| | - Marco Biancotto
- Division of General and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery and Oncology, University of Verona Hospital Trust, GB Rossi Hospital, Verona, Italy
| | - Giuseppe Vanella
- Division of Pancreato-Biliary Endoscopy and Endosonography, Pancreas Translational and Clinical Research Center, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy
| | - Paolo Giorgio Arcidiacono
- Division of Pancreato-Biliary Endoscopy and Endosonography, Pancreas Translational and Clinical Research Center, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy
| | - Gabriele Capurso
- Division of Pancreato-Biliary Endoscopy and Endosonography, Pancreas Translational and Clinical Research Center, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy
| | - Roberto Salvia
- Division of General and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery and Oncology, University of Verona Hospital Trust, GB Rossi Hospital, Verona, Italy
| | - Massimo Falconi
- Division of Pancreatic Surgery, Pancreas Translational and Clinical Research Center, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy
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Scott IA, Slavotinek J, Glasziou PP. First do no harm in responding to incidental imaging findings. Med J Aust 2024; 220:7-9. [PMID: 38009654 DOI: 10.5694/mja2.52177] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2023] [Accepted: 09/05/2023] [Indexed: 11/29/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Ian A Scott
- Centre for Health Services Research, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD
- Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane, QLD
| | | | - Paul P Glasziou
- Institute for Evidence-based Healthcare, Bond University, Gold Coast, QLD
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Seguin CL, Davidi B, Peters MLB, Eckel A, Harisinghani MG, Goiffon RJ, Knudsen AB, Pandharipande PV. Ultrasound Surveillance of Small, Incidentally Detected Gallbladder Polyps: Projected Benefits by Sex, Age, and Comorbidity Level. J Am Coll Radiol 2023; 20:1031-1041. [PMID: 37406750 PMCID: PMC10777737 DOI: 10.1016/j.jacr.2023.05.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2022] [Revised: 04/03/2023] [Accepted: 05/06/2023] [Indexed: 07/07/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Incidentally detected gallbladder polyps are commonly encountered when performing upper abdominal ultrasound. Our purpose was to estimate the life expectancy (LE) benefit of ultrasound-based gallbladder surveillance in patients with small (6-7 to <10 mm), incidentally detected gallbladder polyps, accounting for patient sex, age, and comorbidity level. METHODS We developed a decision-analytic Markov model to evaluate hypothetical cohorts of women and men with small gallbladder polyps, with varying age (66-80 years) and comorbidity level (none, mild, moderate, severe). Drawing from current evidence, in the base case, we assumed no increased risk of gallbladder cancer in patients with small gallbladder polyps. To estimate maximal possible LE gains from surveillance, we assumed perfect cancer control consequent to 5 years of surveillance. We varied key assumptions including cancer risk and test performance characteristics in sensitivity analysis. RESULTS Projected LE gains from surveillance were <3 days across most cohorts and scenarios evaluated. For 66- and 80-year-olds with no comorbidities, LE gains were 1.46 and 1.45 days, respectively, for women, and 0.67 and 0.75 days for men. With 10 years of surveillance, LE gains increased to 2.94 days for 66-year-old women with no comorbidities (men: 1.35 days). If we assumed a 10% increase in gallbladder cancer risk among individuals with polyps, LE gains increased slightly to 1.60 days for 66-year-old women with no comorbidities (men: 0.74 days). Results were sensitive to test performance and surgical mortality. DISCUSSION Even under unrealistic, optimistic assumptions of cancer control, ultrasound surveillance of incidentally detected small gallbladder polyps provided limited benefit.
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Affiliation(s)
- Claudia L Seguin
- Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Barak Davidi
- Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Mary Linton B Peters
- Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts; Division of Medical Oncology, Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Andrew Eckel
- Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Mukesh G Harisinghani
- Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts; Director of Abdominal MRI, Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Reece J Goiffon
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Amy B Knudsen
- Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Pari V Pandharipande
- Chair of Radiology, Ohio State University College of Medicine, Columbus, Ohio; and Chief of Radiology Services for the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center Health System, Columbus, Ohio.
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Koopmann BDM, Omidvari AH, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Cahen DL, Bruno MJ, de Kok IMCM. The impact of pancreatic cancer screening on life expectancy: A systematic review of modeling studies. Int J Cancer 2023; 152:1570-1580. [PMID: 36444505 PMCID: PMC10107819 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.34379] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2022] [Revised: 10/09/2022] [Accepted: 11/07/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
Evidence supporting the effectiveness of pancreatic cancer (PC) screening is scant. Most clinical studies concern small populations with short follow-up durations. Mathematical models are useful to estimate long-term effects of PC screening using short-term indicators. This systematic review aims to evaluate the impact of PC screening on life expectancy (LE) in model-based studies. Therefore, we searched four databases (Embase, Medline, Web-of-science, Cochrane) until 30 May 2022 to identify model-based studies evaluating the impact of PC screening on LE in different risk populations. Two authors independently screened identified papers, extracted data and assessed the methodological quality of studies. A descriptive analysis was performed and the impact of screening strategies on LE of different risk groups was reported. Our search resulted in 419 studies, of which eight met the eligibility criteria (mathematical model, PC screening, LE). Reported relative risks (RR) for PC varied from 1 to 70. In higher risk individuals (RR > 5), annual screening (by imaging with 56% sensitivity for HGD/early stage PC) predicted to increase LE of screened individuals by 20 to 260 days. In the general population, one-time PC screening was estimated to decrease LE (2-110 days), depending on the test characteristics and treatment mortality risk. In conclusion, although the models use different and sometimes outdated or unrealistic assumptions, it seems that PC screening in high-risk populations improves LE, and that this gain increases with a higher PC risk. Updated model studies, with data from large clinical trials are necessary to predict the long-term effect of PC screening more accurately.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brechtje D M Koopmann
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.,Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Amir-Houshang Omidvari
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Iris Lansdorp-Vogelaar
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Djuna L Cahen
- Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Marco J Bruno
- Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Inge M C M de Kok
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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Surveillance in Older Women With Incidental Ovarian Cysts: Maximal Projected Benefits by Age and Comorbidity Level. J Am Coll Radiol 2020; 18:10-18. [PMID: 33096089 DOI: 10.1016/j.jacr.2020.09.048] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2020] [Revised: 09/12/2020] [Accepted: 09/14/2020] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE The aim of this study was to estimate effects on life expectancy (LE) of imaging-based ovarian surveillance after detection of incidental postmenopausal ovarian cysts, under different assumptions of patient age, comorbidity level, and cancer risk and detection. METHODS A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to estimate LE benefits. Hypothetical cohorts of postmenopausal women with simple ovarian cysts were evaluated, with varied age (66-80 years) and comorbidity level (none, mild, moderate, severe). For each cohort, imaging "follow-up" (2 years) and "no-follow-up" strategies were compared. Consistent with current evidence, increased cancer risk in patients with cysts was not assumed; however, incident ovarian cancers could be detected during follow-up. To estimate theoretical maximal LE gains from follow-up, perfect ovarian cancer detection and treatment during follow-up were assumed. This and other key assumptions were varied in sensitivity analysis. RESULTS Projected LE gains from follow-up were limited. For 66-, 70-, 75-, and 80-year-old women with no comorbidities, LE gains were 5.1, 5.1, 4.5, and 3.7 days; with severe comorbidities, they were 3.5, 3.2, 2.7, and 2.1 days. With sensitivity of 50% for cancer detection, they were 3.7 days for 66-year-old women with no comorbidities and 1.3 days for 80-year-old women with severe comorbidities. When cancer risk for women with cysts was assumed to be elevated (1.1 times average risk), LE gains increased only modestly (5.6 and 2.3 days for analogous cohorts). CONCLUSIONS Even in the circumstance of perfect ovarian cancer detection and treatment, surveillance of postmenopausal women (≥66 years of age) with simple cysts affords limited benefits, particularly in women with advanced age and comorbidities.
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Advances in the management of pancreatic cystic neoplasms. Curr Probl Surg 2020; 58:100879. [PMID: 34144739 DOI: 10.1016/j.cpsurg.2020.100879] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2020] [Accepted: 08/09/2020] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
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Active Surveillance Versus Nephron-Sparing Surgery for a Bosniak IIF or III Renal Cyst: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis. AJR Am J Roentgenol 2019; 212:830-838. [PMID: 30779659 DOI: 10.2214/ajr.18.20415] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The objective of our study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of active surveillance (AS) versus nephron-sparing surgery (NSS) in patients with a Bosniak IIF or III renal cyst. MATERIALS AND METHODS Markov models were developed to estimate life expectancy and lifetime costs for 60-year-old patients with a Bosniak IIF or III renal cyst (the reference cases) managed by AS versus NSS. The models incorporated the malignancy rates, reclassification rates during follow-up, treatment effectiveness, complications and costs, and short- and long-term outcomes. An incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to identify management preference under an assumed $75,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) societal willingness-to-pay threshold, using data from studies in the literature and the 2015 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule. The effects of key parameters were addressed in a multiway sensitivity analysis. RESULTS The prevalence of malignancy for Bosniak IIF and III renal cysts was 26% (25/96) and 52% (542/1046). Under base case assumptions for Bosniak IIF cysts, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of NSS relative to AS was $731,309 per QALY for women, exceeding the assumed societal willingness-to-pay threshold, and AS outperformed NSS for both life expectancy and cost for men. For Bosniak III cysts, AS yielded greater life expectancy (24.8 and 19.4 more days) and lower lifetime costs (cost difference of $12,128 and $11,901) than NSS for men and women, indicating dominance of AS over NSS. Superiority of AS held true in sensitivity analyses for men 46 years old or older and women 57 years old or older even when all parameters were set to favor NSS. CONCLUSION AS is more cost-effective than NSS for patients with a Bosniak IIF or III renal cyst.
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Zerboni G, Signoretti M, Crippa S, Falconi M, Arcidiacono PG, Capurso G. Systematic review and meta-analysis: Prevalence of incidentally detected pancreatic cystic lesions in asymptomatic individuals. Pancreatology 2019; 19:2-9. [PMID: 30503370 DOI: 10.1016/j.pan.2018.11.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 106] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2018] [Revised: 11/18/2018] [Accepted: 11/27/2018] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) are frequent incidental findings. As most PCLs require costly diagnostic evaluation and active surveillance, it is important to clarify their prevalence in asymptomatic individuals. We therefore aimed at performing a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine it. METHODS a systematic search was conducted and studies meeting inclusion criteria were included. The prevalence of PCLs was pooled across studies. A random effect model was used with assessment of heterogeneity. RESULTS 17 studies, with 48,860 patients, were included. Only 3 were prospective; 5 studies were conducted in the US, 7 in Europe, 4 in Asia and 1 in Brazil. The pooled prevalence of PCLs was 8% (95% CI 4-14) with considerable heterogeneity (I2 = 99.5%). This prevalence was higher in studies of higher quality, examining older subjects, smaller cohorts, and employing MRCP (24.8% vs 2.7% with CT-scan). The pooled rate of PCLs was four times higher in studies conducted in the US than in Asia (12.6% vs 3.1%). 7 studies reported the prevalence of mucinous lesions, with a pooled rate of 4.3% (95% CI 2-10; I2 = 99.2%), but of 0.7% only for worrisome features or high risk stigmata. CONCLUSION The rate of incidentally detected PCLs is of 8%. Mucinous lesions are the most common incidentally detected PCLs, although they rarely present with potential indication for surgery. The observed different rates in the US and other geographic Areas suggest that different protocols might be necessary to help balancing costs and effectiveness of follow-up investigations in asymptomatic subjects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giulia Zerboni
- Digestive and Liver Disease Unit, Sant'Andrea Hospital, Sapienza University, Rome, Italy
| | - Marianna Signoretti
- Digestive and Liver Disease Unit, Sant'Andrea Hospital, Sapienza University, Rome, Italy
| | - Stefano Crippa
- Pancreatic Surgery Division, Pancreas Translational and Clinical Research Center, San Raffaele Scientific Institute IRCCS, Milan, Italy; Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy
| | - Massimo Falconi
- Pancreatic Surgery Division, Pancreas Translational and Clinical Research Center, San Raffaele Scientific Institute IRCCS, Milan, Italy; Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy
| | - Paolo Giorgio Arcidiacono
- PancreatoBiliary Endoscopy and EUS Division, Pancreas Translational and Clinical Research Center, San Raffaele Scientific Institute IRCCS, Milan, Italy
| | - Gabriele Capurso
- PancreatoBiliary Endoscopy and EUS Division, Pancreas Translational and Clinical Research Center, San Raffaele Scientific Institute IRCCS, Milan, Italy.
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